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Human-modified forests are an ever-increasing feature across the Amazon Basin, but little is known about how stem growth is influenced by extreme climatic events and the resulting wildfires. Here we assess for the first time the impacts of human-driven disturbance in combination with El Niño-mediated droughts and fires on tree growth and carbon accumulation. We found that after 2.5 years of continuous measurements, there was no difference in stem carbon accumulation between undisturbed and human-modified forests. Furthermore, the extreme drought caused by the El Niño did not affect carbon accumulation rates in surviving trees. In recently burned forests, trees grew significantly more than in unburned ones, regardless of their history of previous human disturbance. Wood density was the only significant factor that helped explain the difference in growth between trees in burned and unburned forests, with low wood-density trees growing significantly more in burned sites. Our results suggest stem carbon accumulation is resistant to human disturbance and one-off extreme drought events, and it is stimulated immediately after wildfires. However, these results should be seen with caution-without accounting for carbon losses, recruitment and longer-term changes in species composition, we cannot fully understand the impacts of drought and fire in the carbon balance of human-modified forests.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Meteorological extreme events such as El Niño events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPPstem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr-1, with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr-1 between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Niño events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Niño-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Niño 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

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• Above 300 mm of monthly precipitation, leaf litterfall becomes independent of rainfall. • Leaf-litter production is generally insensitive to past human disturbance. • El Niño-fire-affected forests present a greater change in leaf-litter production than El Niño-drought-affected forests. Leaf-litter production is an essential part of the carbon cycle of tropical forests. In the Amazon, it is influenced by climate, presenting high levels during the driest months of the year. However, it is less established how extreme climatic events may impact leaf-litter production in the long term. Even more unclear is how litter production is affected by human-driven disturbances. Here we examine the effects of the 2015–16 El Niño drought and subsequent fires in the leaf-litter production of human-modified Amazonian forests, thus investigating the interactions of a climatic extreme with anthropogenic disturbances on this key process of the Amazonian carbon cycle. We sampled leaf litter from April 2015 until March 2019 across 20 plots located in the eastern Brazilian Amazon, in a total of 11,548 samples. Plots were distributed along a pre-El Niño gradient of human disturbance, including undisturbed, logged, logged-and-burned, and secondary forests. All plots were impacted by the extreme drought caused by the 2015–16 El Niño, and eight were also impacted by understory fires. We found a significant and non-linear relationship between precipitation and monthly leaf-litter production – above 300 mm of monthly precipitation, the production of leaf-litter becomes independent of rainfall. Surprisingly, this relationship was not influenced by pre-El Niño forest disturbance class. During the El Niño, leaf-litter production was higher, decreasing sharply in the following year, especially in El Niño-fire-affected forests. Between 2017 and 2019, all forests experienced a gradual increase in the production of leaf litter. However, the mechanisms behind this increase remain unclear and are likely different between forests affected only by the El Niño drought and those affected by both the drought and fires. Our results suggest that while leaf-litter production may be insensitive to past human disturbances, it is affected, in the short term, by extreme climatic events, especially in forests impacted by El Niño fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]