Search

Drought occurrence and duration in central Asia are of important socioeconomic, ecological, and geophysical significance and have received increasing research attention in recent years. Understanding long-term drought trends and their driving forces require reliable records of past drought variability with broad spatial representativeness. Here, we compiled four tree-ring δ18O records from eastern central Asia (ECA) and composited them into a drought-sensitive proxy to explore regional ECA moisture variations over the past 301 years (1710-2010 CE). A robust regional standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reconstruction was established based on the tree-ring cellulose δ18O fractionation mechanism and statistically significant proxy-climate relationships. We identified prominent droughts in 1710-1770, 1810-1830, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and a regime shift to a persistently wet period from the 1880s to 2000. Our reconstruction reveals the impact of drought and pluvial patterns on the decline of Zhungar Empire, and on historical agricultural and socio-economical activities, including increased migration into ECA during the 1770-1800 pluvial. Our findings also suggest that wet conditions in the twentieth century in ECA were related to a strengthening of the westerly circulation and thus shed light on large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We developed an annual tree-ring δ18O chronology from Larix sibirica in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China. Climatic response revealed that tree-ring δ18O was significantly positively correlated with the mean and maximum July-August temperatures, whereas the July precipitation and relative humidity were significantly negatively correlated with tree-ring δ18O. The self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc_PDSI) in July-August was significantly correlated with the tree-ring δ18O, which reflects the comprehensive effects of the three parameters on tree-ring δ18O fractionation. We established a robust reconstruction of July-August sc_ PDSI that accounted for 38.4% of the total variance of sc_PDSI from 1959 to 2008. The sc_PDSI reconstruction yields new insights on past drought that were not previously realized in other PDSI reconstructions (e.g. Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas) from the region. The reconstruction revealed several wet and dry periods but no trend towards a wetter climate in the eastern Tianshan Mountains during the last two decades. It also detected synergistic effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on regional moisture conditions as a result of teleconnections between tropical oceans and mid-latitude circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]