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We describe a theoretically based framework (C-PMT+HAPA) for designing and evaluating collaborative processes to increase preparation for natural hazards in situations in which preparedness decisions are shared and actions must be taken jointly by more than one party. The framework combines two health behavior change theories from psychology, protection motivation theory (PMT) and the health action process approach (HAPA), with collaboration theory in natural resources management. The framework provides much needed guidance for designing the activities in which participants will collaborate and suggests theoretically supported intermediate outcomes that may indicate a successful trajectory toward the ultimate goal of increased preparation. We used this framework in a collaborative process, with participation by ranchers with grazing permits and U.S. Forest Service managers on the Tonto National Forest, to increase preparation for drought on public rangelands in the Southwestern U.S. Evaluation of intermediate outcomes indicated: (1) improved interactions and relations between parties; (2) improved ability to appraise drought risks; (3) improved understanding of the U.S. Forest Service process for approving practices that increase preparation for drought; and; (4) increased motivation to implement these practices. The strength of the intermediate outcomes suggests that the C-PMT+HAPA framework would be an effective, theoretically supported framework for designing and evaluating collaborative processes to encourage preparation for natural hazards. More generally, the framework could contribute to more transdisciplinary, system- and action-oriented research on disaster risk reduction that is coproduced with multiple stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured by water temperature and streamflow. The latter is typically based on the same ecological principles used to determine instream flow requirements. We also found that other resource plans in the same watersheds (e.g., Watershed Restoration Plans, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Watershed Assessments or United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plans) identify a broader range of ecological drought risks. Given limited resources and the potential for mutual benefits and synergies, we suggest greater integration between various planning processes could result in a more holistic consideration of water needs and uses across the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Decision makers have continuously asked for better tools and resources to help them assess their risks related to climate variability and extremes. Drought is one of the risks they face, and the need for better drought risk tools and resources has also been expressed. With drought continuing to be one of the most problematic and costly natural disasters within the United States, and building on the work of the original National Drought Atlas (NDA) (1996), an updated and expanded Drought Risk Atlas (DRA) decision support tool for the United States was developed and is housed at the National Drought Mitigation Center. The DRA (1) provides weekly calculations of multiple indices/indicators, with more than a billion records made freely available, including the SPI, SPEI, PDSI, scPDSI, Deciles and U.S. Drought Monitor; (2) houses more than 3000 stations with data through 2012, nearly tripling the station count of the original NDA; (3) utilizes a much longer period of record, nearly double that of the NDA in most cases; (4) when fully completed, will house a cache of more than 500,000 gridded drought index maps; (5) will allow us to analyze and assess trends and various characteristics of drought, including frequency, intensity, duration and magnitude; (6) will become a resource for the National Weather Service (NWS) personnel around the country by transferring the application into the field through integration within the NWS’s newly developed Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT); and (7) work directly with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program office to include the information contained in the DRA into NIDIS’s regional drought early warning system pilot basins and the U.S. Drought Portal for broad dissemination to the user community and general public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In recent years droughts have been occurring frequently, and their impacts are being aggravated by the rise in water demand and the variability in hydro-meteorological variables due to climate change. As a result, drought hydrology has been receiving much attention. A variety of concepts have been applied to modeling droughts, ranging from simplistic approaches to more complex models. It is important to understand different modeling approaches as well as their advantages and limitations. This paper, supplementing the previous paper () where different concepts of droughts were highlighted, reviews different methodologies used for drought modeling, which include drought forecasting, probability based modeling, spatio-temporal analysis, use of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for drought scenarios, land data assimilation systems for drought modeling, and drought planning. It is found that there have been significant improvements in modeling droughts over the past three decades. Hybrid models, incorporating large scale climate indices, seem to be promising for long lead-time drought forecasting. Further research is needed to understand the spatio-temporal complexity of droughts under climate change due to changes in spatio-temporal variability of precipitation. Applications of copula based models for multivariate drought characterization seem to be promising for better drought characterization. Research on decision support systems should be advanced for issuing warnings, assessing risk, and taking precautionary measures, and the effective ways for the flow of information from decision makers to users need to be developed. Finally, some remarks are made regarding the future outlook for drought research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water allocation systems are challenged by hydrologic droughts, which reduce available water supplies and can adversely affect human and environmental systems. To address this problem, drought management mechanisms have been instituted in jurisdictions around the world. Historically, these mechanisms have involved a crisis management or reactive approach. An important trend during the past decade in places such as the United States has been a shift to a more proactive approach, emphasizing drought preparedness and local involvement. Unfortunately, local capacity for drought planning is highly variable, with some local governments and organizations proving to be more capable than others of taking on new responsibilities. This paper reports on a study of drought planning and water allocation in the State of Minnesota. Factors facilitating and constraining local capacity for drought planning were identified using in-depth key informant interviews with state officials and members of two small Minnesota cities, combined with an analysis of pertinent documentation. A key factor contributing to the effectiveness of Minnesota''s system is a water allocation system with explicit priorities during shortages, and provisions for restrictions. At the same time, the requirement that water suppliers create Public Water Supply Emergency Conservation Plans (PWSECP) clarifies the roles and responsibilities of key local actors. Unfortunately, the research revealed that mandated PWSECP are not always implemented, and that awareness of drought and drought planning measures in general may be poor at the local level. From the perspective of the two cities evaluated, factors that contributed to local capacity included sound financial and human resources, and (in some cases) effective vertical and horizontal linkages. This analysis of experiences in Minnesota highlights problems that can occur when senior governments establish policy frameworks that increase responsibilities at the local level without also addressing local capacity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Drought is an abstract and complex phenomenon that can be difficult for many people to comprehend. Proactive planning to improve response during drought events is necessary but complicated because it involves stakeholders and decision-makers with competing interests. A category of games, called serious games, have proven to be helpful when learning about abstract concepts, and for improving communication and conflict resolution with respect to water-related issues. In this study, we present a new in-person role-playing game that serves as a drought educational tool in both classroom and professional settings. The message of the game emphasizes the importance of communication and cooperation between various communities and sectors that can be affected by drought. Furthermore, it also encourages discussions and collaborations between stakeholders involved in drought planning and can serve as an icebreaker activity. The game has been played in a variety of settings including university classes, university extension workshops, and drought workshops. This study describes the game itself, its development, and the results of surveys from game participants that were used to evaluate the usability of the game as an educational and icebreaker activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]