Search

Compared with individual extreme events, compound events have more severe impacts on humans and the natural environment. This study explores the change in severity of compound extreme high temperature and drought/rain events (CHTDE/CHTRE) and associated influencing factors. The CHTDE and CHTRE intensified in most areas of China in summer (June–July August) during 1961–2014. Under global warming, the increased water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and the decreased relative humidity led to an increase in the severity of CHTDE. The severity of CHTRE is increased because of enhanced transient water vapor convergence and convective motion. Anthropogenic climate change, especially greenhouse gas forcing, which contributes 90% to the linear change in the severity of CHTDE and CHTRE, is identified as the dominant factor affecting the severity of CHTDE in China. In addition, the historical natural forcing (hist-NAT) may be related to the interannual-to-decadal variability in the severity of CHTDE/CHTRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A severe persistent drought occurred in South China during autumn–winter 2020/2021, causing enormous economic losses and severe water shortage in South China. Focusing on this event, this study analyzed the climate anomalies associated with this event, and investigated the underlying mechanisms as well as their relationship with the leading modes of the autumn and winter precipitation in eastern China. The results suggest that the drought in South China during autumn 2020 is mainly attributed to the water vapor divergence anomalies induced by an anomalous anticyclone over eastern China and an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea, which are caused by an anomalous Eurasian atmospheric wave‐train triggered by the negative sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea‐Kara Sea region and a La Niña‐like condition in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, respectively. The continued drought in South China during winter 2020/2021 is mainly attributed to the water vapor divergence anomalies induced by an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific, which is caused by the continued La Niña‐like condition. The mechanisms of the first two leading modes of autumn precipitation in eastern China both contributed to the drought in South China during autumn 2020, whereas the mechanisms of the first leading mode of winter precipitation in eastern China played an important role in causing the drought in South China during winter 2020/2021. Numerical experiments demonstrate important impact of the ENSO and Arctic sea ice anomalies on the East Asian climate anomalies during autumn–winter 2020/2021. Key Points: The drought in South China during autumn 2020 is attributed to combined effect of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic sea ice anomaliesThe drought in South China during winter 2020/2021 is mainly attributed to the La Niña‐like conditionNumerical experiments demonstrate important impact of ENSO and Arctic sea ice on East Asian climate anomalies during autumn–winter 2020/2021 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A probability-based index is calculated to represent concurrent heatwaves and droughts. • Physical mechanisms of concurrent heatwaves and droughts are recognized. • Independent predictors are used to construct a physical-empirical prediction model. Concurrent heatwaves and droughts that occur over northeastern China (NEC) bring severe threats to human lives and crop production. Despite the great efforts taken in previous studies, realistic prediction of these concurrent extreme events remains a challenge. In the present study, a probability-based index that simultaneously considers precipitation deficiency and high temperature is calculated to represent concurrent heatwaves and droughts in July–August over NEC. Based on this index, the characteristics of concurrent heatwaves and droughts over NEC in July–August are investigated using the year-to-year increment approach. The results indicate that the occurrence of concurrent heatwaves and droughts over NEC is closely related to the Polar-Eurasian teleconnection pattern and the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. Further analyses indicate that the sea ice content in the Barents Sea in March ( SICBS ), the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) in February ( SST-PC1 ), and the northwestern Siberia soil moisture in April ( SM ) are coincidently linked to the two teleconnection patterns mentioned above. Based on their corresponding physical mechanisms, these three independent predictors are chosen to construct a physical-empirical prediction model for the prediction of concurrent heatwaves and droughts over NEC. Results suggest that this physical-empirical prediction model performs well with a high correlation coefficient and a low root mean squared error between the observed and predicted concurrent heatwaves and droughts over NEC during the period of 1979–2018. Moreover, the cross-validation test and independent hindcasts both suggest that the physical-empirical model proposed in the present study with the three independent predictors has good prediction skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]