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Lack of efficacy in the intended disease indication is the major cause of clinical phase drug development failure. Explanations could include the poor external validity of pre-clinical (cell, tissue, and animal) models of human disease and the high false discovery rate (FDR) in preclinical science. FDR is related to the proportion of true relationships available for discovery (γ), and the type 1 (false-positive) and type 2 (false negative) error rates of the experiments designed to uncover them. We estimated the FDR in preclinical science, its effect on drug development success rates, and improvements expected from use of human genomics rather than preclinical studies as the primary source of evidence for drug target identification. Calculations were based on a sample space defined by all human diseases - the 'disease-ome' - represented as columns; and all protein coding genes - 'the protein-coding genome'- represented as rows, producing a matrix of unique gene- (or protein-) disease pairings. We parameterised the space based on 10,000 diseases, 20,000 protein-coding genes, 100 causal genes per disease and 4000 genes encoding druggable targets, examining the effect of varying the parameters and a range of underlying assumptions, on the inferences drawn. We estimated γ, defined mathematical relationships between preclinical FDR and drug development success rates, and estimated improvements in success rates based on human genomics (rather than orthodox preclinical studies). Around one in every 200 protein-disease pairings was estimated to be causal (γ = 0.005) giving an FDR in preclinical research of 92.6%, which likely makes a major contribution to the reported drug development failure rate of 96%. Observed success rate was only slightly greater than expected for a random pick from the sample space. Values for γ back-calculated from reported preclinical and clinical drug development success rates were also close to the a priori estimates. Substituting genome wide (or druggable genome wide) association studies for preclinical studies as the major information source for drug target identification was estimated to reverse the probability of late stage failure because of the more stringent type 1 error rate employed and the ability to interrogate every potential druggable target in the same experiment. Genetic studies conducted at much larger scale, with greater resolution of disease end-points, e.g. by connecting genomics and electronic health record data within healthcare systems has the potential to produce radical improvement in drug development success rate.

CETP inhibitors are a class of lipid-lowering drugs in development for treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD). Genetic studies in East Asian ancestry have interpreted the lack of CETP signal with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and lack of drug target Mendelian randomization (MR) effect on CHD as evidence that CETP inhibitors might not be effective in East Asian participants. Capitalizing on recent increases in sample size of East Asian genetic studies, we conducted a drug target MR analysis, scaled to a standard deviation increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Despite finding evidence for possible neutral effects of lower CETP levels on LDL-C, systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure in East Asians (interaction p-values < 1.6 × 10−3), effects on cardiovascular outcomes were similarly protective in both ancestry groups. In conclusion, on-target inhibition of CETP is anticipated to decrease cardiovascular disease in individuals of both European and East Asian ancestries. CETP inhibitors are being developed for treatment of coronary heart disease. Here, the authors show that the anticipated beneficial effects of lower plasma levels of CETP are shared among individuals of European and East Asian ancestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis is an important tool to elucidate the causal relevance of environmental and biological risk factors for disease. However, causal inference is undermined if genetic variants used to instrument a risk factor also influence alternative disease-pathways (horizontal pleiotropy). Here we report how the 'no horizontal pleiotropy assumption' is strengthened when proteins are the risk factors of interest. Proteins are typically the proximal effectors of biological processes encoded in the genome. Moreover, proteins are the targets of most medicines, so MR studies of drug targets are becoming a fundamental tool in drug development. To enable such studies, we introduce a mathematical framework that contrasts MR analysis of proteins with that of risk factors located more distally in the causal chain from gene to disease. We illustrate key model decisions and introduce an analytical framework for maximising power and evaluating the robustness of analyses. Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of drug targets has potential to aid drug development. Here, the authors introduce a mathematical framework to elucidate this specific application of MR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]