Search

This study aims to estimate attenuation characteristics of the central Himalayan region of India concerning various strong-motion parameters such as Kappa value (κ) and site effects. We have tried to elaborate on the regional structural heterogeneities and their implications towards the seismic hazard assessment of the study region. A total of 81 earthquakes recorded at 50 stations situated in the central Himalayan region of India are used for the purpose. The particular focus is kept on Kappa value, which shows variability from 0.03 s to 0.095 s, inferring the higher values obtained in plains with deep sediment accumulations proving high-frequency energy dissipation and stiff-soil/rocky sites exhibit comparatively limited attenuation accordingly. To substantiate these results various attenuation parameters such as coda wave quality factor (Qc), intrinsic attenuation parameter (Qi), and scattering attenuation parameter (Qs), have been estimated for two regions in the central seismic gap Himalayan region of India employing the single backscattering model and Wennerberg formulation. The estimated values of Qc, Qi, and Qs are found to be highly dependent on frequency in the frequency range 1.5–24 Hz for both the regions. The average frequency-dependent relationships ( Q = Q 0 f η ) estimated for both regions are Q c = 158 f 1.18 and Q c = 194 f 1.2 , respectively. The low value of Q0 shows that the region is highly heterogeneous while the higher value of η indicates higher seismicity in the area. It is also found that intrinsic attenuation is predominant over the scattering attenuation, envisaging the behavior of the wave attenuation through the absorption within the granitic layer at shallow depths. At lower frequencies, Qc values are found close to Qs values, which is in agreement with the theoretical measurements suggesting the presence of complex crustal heterogeneities beneath the region affecting the propagation of seismic waves experiencing considerable decay of energy through scattering. To confirm the aggregate attenuation on the stations, the site characteristics are also determined for examining the behavior of the amplification as the ground motion is comprised of the combined effect of the source, path, and site. The sites are amplified at a predominant frequency (fpeak) in between 1.5 to 10 Hz for the central Himalayan region. The different attenuation and amplification parameters like kappa, Q, and site effects can be utilized for detailed seismic hazard analysis (based on ground motion prediction equations) of the area as this region is of great importance from a socio-economic point of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies suggested that transient and long‐term stress changes caused by Earth's surface processes (e.g., extreme weather events, annual variations on groundwater storages) can affect earthquake activities in the subsurface. However, these studies may be limited by the completeness of standard earthquake catalogs, especially during or right after extreme weather events. Here we apply the template matching method to build a more complete earthquake catalog in Taiwan spanning seven months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon Morakot, which brought the highest rainfall in southern Taiwan in the past 60 years and triggered numerous landslides. We then use the enhanced catalog to investigate possible influences of typhoon‐driven Earth's surface processes (atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and erosion) on local seismicity. We find that the seismicity rate of a 40‐day earthquake sequence in northeastern Taiwan was reduced significantly right after the passage of typhoon Morakot's eye center. In the typhoon‐triggered landslide zone in southern Taiwan, we find a slight increase in background seismicity rate in the next year after Morakot, matching the results of a recent study. However, we do not observe a clear change in the Gutenberg‐Richter b‐value in this zone, which is different from the recent study. Station outages during and right after Morakot prevents us from better understanding short‐term precipitation effect on local seismicity. Overall, except for a reduction in seismicity rate near the typhoon's low‐pressure eye center in northeastern Taiwan, we do not observe other clear seismicity changes that can be attributed to surface changes induced by typhoon Morakot. Plain Language Summary: It is important to study cascading nature hazards (typhoons/hurricanes, landslides, earthquakes, etc.) because of their threats to human life and property. 2009 typhoon Morakot is the deadliest typhoon in Taiwan, which brought the highest rainfall in the past 60 years and led to numerous landslides. To investigate the possible influences of Morakot on subsurface earthquake activities, we build a more complete earthquake catalog for Taiwan spanning seven months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon Morakot. This enhanced earthquake catalog includes many small earthquakes that cannot be felt by local residents in their ordinary life and were not in the standard earthquake catalog. In northeastern Taiwan, our results show that a 40‐day earthquake sequence was apparently shut down right after the passage of typhoon Morakot. If this observation is not a pure coincidence, it may suggest that the low‐pressure system of typhoon Morakot was capable of modulating the subsurface seismicity behavior. In southern Taiwan, the heavy‐rainfall and landslide region, we do not observe clear seismicity changes that can be attributed to surface changes induced by typhoon Morakot. Key Points: We use a template matching method to rebuild an earthquake catalog for Taiwan 7 months before and 12 months after 2009 typhoon MorakotThe seismicity rate of a 40‐day earthquake sequence in northeastern Taiwan was reduced significantly after the passage of MorakotThe seismicity rate increased slightly but without clear b‐value change after Morakot in typhoon‐driven landslide zone in southern Taiwan [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uttarakhand Himalayas are highly sensitive to seismic hazard with possible occurrence of high-magnitude earthquakes. Fewer waveforms are available from previously recorded earthquakes, which are insufficient for carrying out seismic hazard studies. The recently installed strong motion instrumentation network (SMIN) in India, particularly, in Indian Himalayas is providing useful data. Using recorded data from SMIN, time-dependent peak ground acceleration and observed peak ground velocity shake maps are drawn for two earthquakes widely recorded by SMIN in Uttarakhand region of Indian Himalayan belt. Open-source Earthworm software with new algorithms is used for drawing these shake maps. The source mechanism is computed for April 4, 2011 earthquake using waveform inversion technique to relate it to the trend of shake maps. The computed focal mechanism shows one of the nodal planes in NW–SE, which are consistent with shake maps for the same earthquake. These time-dependent plotted shake maps provide useful information on the initial rupture, as well as the potential directivity of the rupture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In present work, seismic hazard from future earthquake is worked out for Delhi region in terms of different strong motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), characteristics frequency and spectral acceleration (Sa). The earthquake of March 5, 2012, is taken as key earthquake for synthesis. Stochastic finite modeling technique based on dynamic corner frequency initially is used to produce and match the ground motion histories where 2012 earthquake was recorded. The matching is attained in terms of PGA, response spectra and duration. Once a good match is found, the ground motion is estimated for higher magnitude earthquakes (i.e., Mw 6.0 and Mw 6.5). Our work demonstrates that a Mw 6.0 magnitude earthquake in proximity of Delhi will deliver PGA estimations of 20-209 gal (1 cm/s = 1 gal), the lower values occurring at hard rock sites like NDI (IMD) and DJB. Similarly Mw 6.5 earthquake may produce PGA values ranging between 30 and 323 gal. Finally seismic hazard in Delhi and surrounding regions is estimated from Mw 6.5 magnitude earthquake in terms of PGA, Sa and predominant period. Our computation specifies that at short period, the small structures toward eastern and north-western part of Delhi city may be affected by the earthquakes. For a case of 0.5 s period, Sa values are distributed uniformly at all the places in Delhi, indicating that the buildings with five floors or so may be in danger from future higher magnitude earthquakes. The Sa maps acquired in this study can be utilized to survey the seismic danger of the region and identify vulnerably susceptible areas in and around Delhi from future higher magnitude earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan is one of the leading developers of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. The Central Weather Bureau has been the primary developer of the EEW system in Taiwan since 1993. In 2010, the National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an EEW system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers. As of 2014, a total of 506 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Regions of high shaking indicated by the shalking map can indicate locations of damage and casualties and help estimate the damage incurred. The direction of earthquake ruptures are also potentially identified based on detailed shaking maps and strong motion records of the NTU system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake prediction is by all means controversial and challenging, given the fact that some recent catastrophic earthquakes went unpredicted. Not surprisingly, statistical approaches have been utilized to model earthquake randomness in time or space. One of the suggestions is that the earthquake's temporal probability distribution should follow the Poisson model, which is suitable for rare events by definition. As a result, the customarily used hypothesis should be largely associated with the prior judgment that earthquakes are rare, but not as a result of abundant quantitative evidence or theoretical derivation. Therefore, this study aims to offer new empirical evidence to the hypothesis based on 110-year-long earthquake data around Taiwan. From the series of statistical tests, the first statistical inference is indeed in line with the model's proposition: the level of fitting between observation and theory is better for earthquakes with a lower mean rate. To be more specific, it shows that the Poissonian hypothesis applied to local magnitude earthquakes around Taiwan with a mean annual rate as high as 1,600 is clearly rejected, but as far as earthquakes with a mean rate of 0.35 per year are concerned, the same hypothesis is statistically accepted for modeling their temporal randomness. Also, according to the tests on a variety of conditions, the annual rate of approximately 0.1 per year (or 10-year return period) was suggested as a reasonable empirical estimate for Poissonian rareness. Accordingly, from a practical point of view, it should be a robust analytical presumption to use the Poisson model in daily earthquake engineering analyses because the return period of design earthquakes is longer than 10 years, if not much longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We detected 12 landquakes in Taiwan with collapse areas between 0.27 and 2.48 km2 associated with rock collapse, rockslide and debris and/or rock avalanche during the passage of Typhoon Morakot in 2009. These events were recorded by seismic stations of the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology. Their locations were determined by a cross-correlation technique that maximizes the coherency of horizontal envelope function among seismic stations with a mean location error of 1.92 km. We applied time-frequency analysis to estimate the bandwidth of seismic energy generated by the landquakes. The predominant frequency ranges from 0.5 to 5.0 Hz, with higher-frequency signals likely caused by block impact. We extracted signal duration (SD), peak ground velocity, rise time (TR), area of velocity envelope function (AE) from the closest station and estimated the collapse area (AC) and run-out distance (DR) by mapping satellite images. Based on aforementioned seismic and geometrical parameters, we defined the potential of initial impact (PI), the frequency of rock impact signal (fI) and the mean quasi-front velocity (Vf) as indicators of landquake types, especially for events with dam formation (dam-formation-type events). We also derived an empirical linear relationship between the envelope area (AE) and collapse area (AC) with a high correlation coefficient of 0.83. Our automatic approach is very effective for rapid determination of landquake centroid location and collapse area, and for identifying dam-formation event using records from existing real-time broad-band seismic networks, thus providing an important alternative for landquake hazard mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an approach to imaging earthquake source rupture process by direct back-projection of local high-frequency (0.1–2.5 Hz) P-wave displacements from strong-motion records. A series of synthetic experiments are performed which demonstrate that our approach is capable of recovering the spatial-temporal distribution of the source slip with a good station coverage and a high average coherence value between the target and template waveforms. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to image the slip distribution of an earthquake occurred on 2010 March 4, in Jiasian (Mw = 6.0 and ML = 6.4) in southern Taiwan. The resulting moment-rate amplitude images show that the source rupture initiated at the vicinity of the hypocentre, followed by a moderate moment-rate release to the southeast of the hypocentre and a subsequent upward propagation, and finally propagated in the northwest direction, in agreement with the distribution of aftershocks. The majority of the slip at 17–20 km depth occurred to the west of the hypocentre, in a general agreement with the slip distributions obtained from dislocation model and finite-fault inversions. Our modified back-projection approach relies on seismic waveforms with the considerations of a recent 3-D structure model, high average coherence value, station correction factor and simplified amplitude correction. It is computationally efficient and allows for near real-time determinations of source slip distributions after earthquakes using strong-motion records. A quick result for the rupture model can be used in the calculation of strong ground-motion, providing important, useful and timely information for seismic hazard mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first presents the series of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the three major cities in Taiwan. The PGAs are back-calculated from an earthquake catalog with the use of ground motion models. The maximums of the 84th percentile (mean + one standard deviation) PGA since 1900 are 1.03, 0.36, and 0.10 g, in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively. Statistical goodness-of-fit testing shows that the series of PGA follow a double-lognormal distribution. Using the verified probability distribution, a probabilistic analysis was developed in this paper, and used to evaluate probability-based seismic hazard. Accordingly, given a PGA equal to 0.5 g, the annual exceedance probabilities are 0.56, 0.46, and 0.23 % in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively; for PGA equal to 1.0 g, the probabilities become 0.18, 0.14, and 0.09 %. As a result, this analysis indicates the city in South Taiwan is associated with relatively lower seismic hazard, compared with those in Central and North Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Following the 4 March 2010 MW 6.4 Jiashian earthquake the seismicity rate in southern Taiwan was determined to be significantly higher than before the quake and aroused seismic hazard awareness. In this work, seismic hazards were investigated in terms of earthquake activity, the Coulomb stress change, the rate-and-state friction model, and short-term seismic hazard assessments. The significantly higher seismicity rate that followed the 2010 Jiashian earthquake was found to mainly be attributed to aftershock decay, in terms of the modified Omori formula. The results suggest that aftershock duration may continue until the end of 2012. The spatial migration of seismicity was modeled using the Coulomb stress changes of large earthquakes. Most of the consequent events were distributed in the vicinity of large earthquakes. The observations corresponded to a remarkable stress increase within the same area. Additionally, large events were located within regions with stress increases promoted by previous earthquakes. The results confirm interactive relationships between large events. By considering time-dependency, the seismicity rate evolution was estimated using the rate-and-state friction model. The results indicated that a high seismic rate will persist at least until the end of 2012. Short-term probabilistic seismic hazard assessments were also applied in terms of the probability of strong ground motion. Using this application, a sudden jump in seismic hazards in southern Taiwan was accompanied by each large earthquake. At the end of 2012 it is expected that hazards will return to a background level. Our results may be valuable in the future to decision-makers and public officials engaged in seismic hazard mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Earthquake early warning systems have been developed to help minimize the loss of life and other damages resulting from catastrophic earthquakes. In the past several decades, these systems have evolved to function using a variety of methodologies. This study introduces an onsite system developed from a correlation between the precursor measurement (Pd3) and the peak ground acceleration (PGV) from 780 historical earthquake events recorded in Taiwan, Japan and South California. The study analyzes and integrates the uncertainty of the onsite system, establishing the statistical relationship between the PGV forecast, the Pd3 precursor, and the exceedance probability (P E ). A method is presented for forecasting the PGV by scaling the Pd3. Furthermore, this study also suggests a decision-making model to determine whether or not the early warning notification should be issued, based on factors such as the uncertainty of the early warning system, the magnitude of the precursor, and warning recipient characteristics. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Proposed in the late 1980s, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is a new intensity measure for earthquake ground motion characterizations, followed by studies and applications such as CAV ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In this study, two new CAV GMPEs were developed with 24,667 strong-motion records from Taiwan, and the first CAV seismic hazard assessment for Taipei (the most important city in Taiwan) was then conducted using the local CAV models. It shows that the annual rate for the study area to encounter a ground motion with CAV >0.97 g-sec is 0.002 per year, corresponding to a 10% occurrence probability in 50 years. By contrast, the deterministic scenario-based analysis shows that the CAV seismic hazard is about 0.60 g-sec for the study area. Future studies are worth conducting to develop more sophisticated, local CAV GPMEs and to explore more applications of such CAV prediction models, such as the developments of PGA-CAV joint probability distributions for conducting PGA-CAV joint seismic hazard assessments. • First CAV GMPE for Taiwan areas. • More than 4,000 strong motion records used. • CAV-based seismic hazard analysis for Taipei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude M w 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake early warning (EEW) has been implemented in several regions around the world. However, because of natural randomness and uncertainty, false alarm and missed alarm can be expected in EEW. The key scope of this study is to evaluate the reliability of an on-site EEW in Taiwan, by testing the system's algorithm with 17,836 earthquake data from 1999 to 2013. The analysis shows that the on-site EEW system, empirically speaking, should have a false-alarm probability of 2.5%, and a missed-alarm probability of 14.1%. Considering missed alarm should be more critical to EEW, a new algorithm that could reduce the system's missed-alarm occurrences to 6% is also discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study develops a probabilistic approach for examining site-specific seismic hazards using data from 438 M w ≥5.5 earthquakes and attenuation relationships local to the region around Taiwan. These are combined to generate semi-observed peak ground accelerations, in a form which can be modeled by a double-lognormal distribution. This model, which satisfies statistical goodness-of-fit, provides the relationship between the exceedance probability and a given ground motion level. The study includes site-specific seismic hazard analysis for four nuclear power plant sites in Taiwan. The results show that the seismic hazards at the four sites are not the same. While no seismic hazard analysis is without challenge, a troublesome trend appears that many applications of decision making are being influenced by the complexity of the calculation, instead of how well the fundamentals of the analysis are understood and can be verified. The study provides an analysis which is not overly complicated, is in good agreement with an empirical control, and offers transparency, traceability, and verifiability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]