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In spite of growing evidence that many earthquakes are preceded by increased seismic activity, the nature of this activity is still poorly understood. Is it the result of a mostly random process related to the natural tendency of seismic events to cluster in time and space, in which case there is little hope to ever predict earthquakes? Or is it the sign that a physical process that will lead to the impending rupture has begun, in which case we should attempt to identify this process. With this aim we take a further look at the nucleation of two of the best recorded and documented strike-slip earthquakes to date, the 1999 Izmit and Düzce earthquakes which ruptured the North Anatolian Fault over ∼200 km. We show the existence of a remarkable mechanical logic linking together nucleation characteristics, stress loading, fault geometry and rupture speed. In both earthquakes the observations point to slow aseismic slip occurring near the ductile-to-brittle transition zone as the motor of their nucleation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slip-rate function and the rupture velocity are two important parameters that are critical in understanding the physics of earthquakes. When conventional objective functions are used, the slip-rate function is not well resolved from seismic data. Here, we propose a new method to obtain the slip-rate function by utilizing the near-field phases recorded near the fault rupture. First we illustrate the sensitivity of near-field phases to the moment accumulation and modify the objective function in order to take advantage of this sensitivity. By utilizing near-field P waves along with S pulses on the near-source records and using a Bayesian approach, we show that we can constrain the average slip-rate function as well as the average rupture velocity for a strike-slip earthquake. As a case example, we apply this technique to the record of the 2003, Mw6.6 Bam Earthquake. Our results indicate an asymmetric slip-rate function, with acceleration duration of about 0.4 s, and deceleration duration of 1.4 s. The slip-rate function obtained from kinematic modelling of the 2003 Bam earthquake is consistent with those predicted by dynamic rupture simulations. The rupture velocity is about 82–90 per cent of the shear wave velocity, implying a sub-Rayleigh rupture velocity close to the Rayleigh wave speed. In future cases where abundant near-source strong-motion data exist and slip is well constrained, the method described in this study can be applied to obtain the variation of the slip-rate function along the fault which would improve our understanding of earthquake rupture physics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]