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We proposed earthquake forecasting models for Albania, one of the most seismogenic regions in Europe, to give an overview of seismic activity by implementing area source and smoothing approaches. The earthquake catalogue was first declustered to remove foreshocks and aftershocks when they are within the derived distance windows and time windows of mainshocks. Considering catalogue completeness, the events with M≥4.1 during the period of 1960–2006 were implemented for the learning forecast model. The forecasting is implemented into an area source model that includes 20 sub-regions and a smoothing model with a cell size of 0.2 ∘ × 0.2 ∘ to forecast the seismicity in Albania. Both models show high seismic rates along the western coastline and in the southern part of the study area, consistent with previous studies that discussed seismicity in the area and currently active regions. To further validate the forecast performance of the two models, we introduced the Molchan diagram to quantify the correlation between models and observations. The Molchan diagram suggests that the models are significantly better than a random distribution, confirming their forecasting abilities. Our results provide crucial information for subsequent research on seismic activity, such as probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Finite-fault rupture models suggest a simple rupture process with a single and compact asperity, and a single triangular STF. • Ruptures often propagated unilaterally along down-dip directions. • Rupture speed, size, and stress drop of intermediate-depth earthquakes in southern Java were determined. • Directivity analysis suggests near-vertical and subhorizontal fault planes as the preferred rupture planes. The rupture behavior of intermediate-depth earthquakes in southern Java remains poorly understood despite their potential seismic hazard. In this study, we performed finite-fault inversions to investigate the rupture processes and source characteristics of five intermediate-depth earthquakes (60–300 km depth) with moment magnitudes (M W) ≥ 6.1 from 1998 to 2017 in the southern region of Java and its surrounding areas. Utilizing teleseismic body waves and surface waves, we employed a wavelet-based seismic inversion technique. Initially, we conducted preliminary inversions of the focal mechanisms (strike and dip) from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) database to determine the optimal fault plane orientation for slip distributions and source time functions (STFs). Our findings reveal that most of the earthquakes exhibited a simple rupture process characterized by a single and compact asperity with a single triangular STF, except for the 1998 earthquake. The results indicate that the ruptures primarily propagated unilaterally along the down-dip direction, except for the 2014 earthquake. We further analyzed the data incorporating directivity, which confirmed the rupture behavior. Three events suggested that the preferred rupture planes were near-vertical (down-dip), while two events exhibited subhorizontal orientations. Considering the challenges in determining the rupture plane associated with the subducting slab, the densely deployed national seismic networks in Java are expected to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the subduction zone. By elucidating the source characteristics and rupture behavior of these intermediate-depth events, our study offers valuable insights for future seismic hazard assessments, particularly for densely populated regions of Java, Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2018 February 6 M w 6.3 Hualien earthquake caused severe localized damage in Hualien City, located 20 km away from the epicentre. The damage was due to strong (>70 cm s−1) and sharp (duration ∼2.5 s) velocity pulses. The observed peak ground-motion velocity in Hualien City symmetrically decays with distance from the nearby Milun fault. Waveforms observed on the opposite sides of the fault show reversed polarity on the vertical and N–S components while the E–W component is almost identical. None of the published finite-fault slip models can explain the spatially highly localized large velocity pulses. In this study, we show that an M w 5.9 strike-slip subevent on the Milun fault at 2.5 km depth, rupturing from north to south at ∼0.9 V s speed, combined with site effects caused by surficial layers with low S-wave speed, can explain the velocity pulses observed at the dense strong-motion network stations. This subevent contributes only 25 per cent of the total moment of the 2018 Hualien earthquake, suggesting that a small local slip patch near a metropolis can dominate the local hazard. Our result strongly suggests that seismic hazard assessments should consider large ground-motion variabilities caused by directivity and site effects, as observed in the 2018 Hualien earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southernmost portion of the Ryukyu Trench near the island of Taiwan potentially generates tsunamigenic earthquakes with magnitudes from 7.5 to 8.7 through shallow rupture. The fault model for this potential region dips 10° northward with a rupture length of 120 km and a width of 70 km. An earthquake magnitude of Mw 8.15 is estimated by the fault geometry with an average slip of 8.25m as a constraint on the earthquake scenario. Heterogeneous slip distributions over the rupture surface are generated by a stochastic slip model, which represents the decaying slip spectrum according to k-2 in the wave number domain. These synthetic slip distributions are consistent with the abovementioned identical seismic conditions. The results from tsunami simulations illustrate that the propagation of tsunami waves and the peak wave heights largely vary in response to the slip distribution. Changes in the wave phase are possible as the waves propagate, even under the same seismic conditions. The tsunami energy path not only follows the bathymetry but also depends on the slip distribution. The probabilistic distributions of the peak tsunami amplitude calculated by 100 different slip patterns from 30 recording stations reveal that the uncertainty decreases with increasing distance from the tsunami source. The highest wave amplitude for 30 recording points is 7.32m at Hualien for 100 different slips. Compared with the stochastic-slip distributions, the uniform slip distribution will be highly underestimated, especially in the near field. In general, the uniform slip assumption only represents the average phenomenon and will consequently ignore the possibility of tsunami waves. These results indicate that considering the effects of heterogeneous slip distributions is necessary for assessing tsunami hazards to provide additional information about tsunami uncertainties and facilitate a more comprehensive estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The duration of strong shaking is particularly important for assessing building performance, potential landslides and liquefaction hazards. The results of this investigation can potentially help reduce related fatalities and economic losses. In this study, we analyzed the acceleration seismograms of the Taiwan strong motion network to characterize the strong shaking duration associated with earthquake sources, propagation paths and site effects. This study proposes a new definition for the strong shaking duration called 'effective shaking duration' (ESD), which considers the amplitude and radiation energy decays. We first consider the window of a time series during which the amplitude is ≥0.01 g, and we then defined the ESD as the length of the interval of the dissipated energy within 5-95 % of the total energy during this time frame. We calculated the strong shaking duration for 495 inter-plate events with magnitudes of M > 5.0 and focal depths <50 km in the Taiwan region from 1994 to 2012. Using a nonlinear regression procedure, we thus obtained an empirical equation for strong shaking durations. The equation is a function of earthquake magnitude, distance and site conditions, which are defined by the V30 value (the S-wave velocity structure of the top 30 m of the site). The results indicate that the shaking durations significantly increase with magnitude and also decrease with distance and V30. Compared with empirical equations from global datasets, our empirical equation is applicable to earthquakes in other regions and will produce smaller but more applicable duration values for smaller earthquakes. However, for larger events, our ESD values are comparable with those derived from other definitions (e.g., significant duration). Although the empirical relationship is mainly based on Taiwanese events, in view of the massive dataset, this empirical equation could provide important information to the global community regarding the ground shaking duration estimation in the ground motion prediction of future earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in observational, theoretical and computational technologies have made it possible for automatic, real-time solutions of the focal mechanisms of earthquake point sources. However, for earthquakes of moderate and greater magnitudes, the complexity of the source kinematic processes often requires additional characteristics on the source rupture in order to make seismotectonic inferences and to explain the observed directivity effects of the radiation of seismic energy. We develop an efficient and effective approach to determining the average finite-rupture models of moderate earthquakes by fitting synthetic and recorded broadband waveforms. A Green's tensor database is established using 3-D structural model with surface topography to enable rapid evaluations of accurate synthetic seismograms needed for source parameter inversions without the need for high-performance computing. We take a two-step strategy: In the first step, a point-source model is determined by a grid search for the best fault-plane solution. Then, taking the two nodal planes in the point-source model as candidates of the actual fault plane, a second grid search is carried out over a suite of simplified finite-rupture models to determine the optimal direction and speed of the integrated rupture of the finite source. We applied our method to four moderate events (MW ≈ 6) in southeastern Taiwan. Results show that our technique provides an effective choice in semi-automatic, near real-time determinations of finite-source parameters for earthquake hazard assessment and mitigation purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed a real-time moment tensor monitoring system (RMT) which takes advantage of a grid-based moment tensor inversion technique and real-time broad-band seismic recordings to automatically monitor earthquake activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion technique and a grid search scheme are applied to obtain the information of earthquake source parameters, including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism. All of these source parameters can be determined simultaneously within 117 s after the occurrence of an earthquake. The monitoring area involves the entire Taiwan Island and the offshore region, which covers the area of 119.3°E to 123.0°E and 21.0°N to 26.0°N, with a depth from 6 to 136 km. A 3-D grid system is implemented in the monitoring area with a uniform horizontal interval of 0.1° and a vertical interval of 10 km. The inversion procedure is based on a 1-D Green's function database calculated by the frequency–wavenumber (fk) method. We compare our results with the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) catalogue data for earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. The average differences between event origin time and hypocentral location are less than 2 s and 10 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms determined by RMT are also comparable with the Broadband Array in Taiwan for Seismology (BATS) CMT solutions. These results indicate that the RMT system is realizable and efficient to monitor local seismic activities. In addition, the time needed to obtain all the point source parameters is reduced substantially compared to routine earthquake reports. By connecting RMT with a real-time online earthquake simulation (ROS) system, all the source parameters will be forwarded to the ROS to make the real-time earthquake simulation feasible. The RMT has operated offline (2010–2011) and online (since January 2012 to present) at the Institute of Earth Sciences (IES), Academia Sinica (http://rmt.earth.sinica.edu.tw). The long-term goal of this system is to provide real-time source information for rapid seismic hazard assessment during large earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50-100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated MW of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We investigated the fault geometry effects and the corresponding coseismic slip distribution using various proposed earthquake fault models for the Chi-Chi earthquake of 21 September 1999. The types of fault geometries are threefold: a simple planar fault plane, a two segmented planar fault plane and a three dimensional (3D) curved fault surface rupture propagation model. We derived the estimated spatial slip distribution from an inversion analysis of GPS coseismic displacement data and show that the 3D fault model is the preferred solution. The simple and segmented fault models lead to significant artificial slip distributions associated with the pre-defined fault geometry and the spatial distribution of GPS stations. The spatial distribution of coseismic slip deduced from the 3D fault model has three observable features: (1) the overall slip is concentrated at depth of less than 12 km, which may well correspond to a shallow-dipping detachment; (2) the maximum slip of about 10 m is located 45 km to the north of the epicenter; and (3) the slip vector is dominated by the dip-slip component. In addition, the results from the inversion of GPS data are consistent with those from the inversion analysis of teleseismic broadband data. A resolution analysis, further, demonstrates that the results are highly correlated with field GPS data studies when we used synthetic test data. The inversion of spatially distributed GPS data is highly sensitive to fault geometry. We conclude that the use of the 3D fault model is not only necessary but also certainly competent enough to well explain the inferred slip style and the observed static coseismic displacements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We investigate the thermo-mechanical properties beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan by constructing a shear strength profile from a vertical stratified rheological structure. The stratified rheological structure is estimated based on the recently developed thermal structure and its likely composition. Subduction–collision in the young orogenic belts and the thick accretionary wedge make a significant contribution to the growth of sialic crust in the hinterland. The sialic bulk crust not only results in a low seismic velocity but also produces weak crust in the hinterland. The earthquake depth–frequency distribution in the foreland and hinterland correlates very well with the regimes of the brittle/ductile transition revealed in the strength profile. Our results show that the observed two-layer seismicity in the foreland is due to a moderate geotherm and an intermediate mafic bulk composition; while single-layer seismicity in the hinterland is due to its felsic bulk composition. In the foreland, the mechanically strong crust (MSC) and the mechanically strong lithosphere (MSL) coincide with frequent seismicity. The shallow MSC in the hinterland is consistent with the 20- to 25-km seismicity occurring there. The total lithospheric integrated strength (LIS) in the hinterland is only about half of that in the foreland, suggesting a weak lower crust and lithosphere mantle in the hinterland. The results confirm that the earthquake cutoff depth is a proxy for temperature. The calculated decrease of effective elastic thickness (EET) from the orogenic margin (foreland) to the center (hinterland) is consistent with the results of flexure modeling in most orogenic belts. Due to the weak LIS in the hinterland, crustal thinning and rifting may occur in the future. Our results, thus, suggest that the mechanical structure is also closely related to the composition and is not directly reflected in the thermal structure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a brief summary of several types of precursors in the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere that have been positively identified in relation to the 20 September 1999 M w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake and its aftershocks under the iSTEP Program. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The tsunami in the event of 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami (SET) occurred after an earthquake of magnitude 7.5. However, it is very difficult for such an earthquake to trigger a tsunami with 10-m flood depth. The causes of this tsunami event remain unknown. A submarine landslide, an additional seabed vertical displacement, and seiche effect may play roles. To gain a deeper understanding of this tsunami event, finding the location of the tsunami source is especially important. We developed two new tsunami analysis methods, impact intensity analysis method (IIA) and tsunami arrival time analysis (TATA) method, to analyze the tsunami source in the SET event. The IIA method can quickly filter out the areas with low impacts of the tsunami sources and effectively reduce the number of tsunami scenarios. However, for a tsunami with a strong direction, it is less easy to grasp. The newly developed TATA method can overcome this weakness. In this study, we perform different scenarios by simulating the tsunamis generated by the earthquake, in-the-bay landslides, and seiche. The earthquake scenario results show that the wave height contributed by the earthquake is less than 0.3 m, which is far away from the field survey. The results from in-the-bay landslide and seiche are away from the waveform and arrival time at Pantoloan. The IIA is then used to reduce the number of the scenarios. From both of the IIA results of Palu and Pantoloan, the possible tsunami sources are located either inside the Palu Bay or around the bay mouth. Based on the tidal gauge data at Pantoloan and the tsunami arrival time from BMKG, the precise location of the tsunami source is spotted. We further created several scenarios which satisfied most of the data we collected, such as the Pantoloan gauge record, Palu inundation area, and flooding depth from the field survey along the Palu Bay. The detailed results will be presented in the full paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present earthquake shaking scenarios by a physics-based ground-motion simulation scheme for seismic risk assessments. In fitting requirements of the application of loss estimations, scenarios can refer to various kinds of damage and losses to constructions (buildings, bridges, etc.), casualties, economic losses, social losses and so on. We quantitatively assess the ground motion effects by the physics-based full-waveform ground-motion simulation which is a powerful tool for earthquake-induced ground-motion prediction. The entire time history of the ground motion induced by an earthquake depends on a number of factors, including source-rupture process, subsurface velocity structure, topographic relief, and local site condition. Then, the further risk assessment can also be revealed by a combination with exposure data. As an example, we carried out simulations to model rupture scenario of the Shanchiao fault and the potential large subduction earthquake in northern Taiwan, with accounting for effects of (1) source slip distribution, (2) seismic wave propagation, (3) surface topography and (4) site amplification. Output ground-motion parameters, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground displacement (PGD), 0.3-s-period spectral acceleration (SA0.3), and 1.0-s-period spectral acceleration (SA1.0), can be adopted to further implement to loss estimation. Our results referred different shaking-level potentials of earthquake scenarios can benefit to risk management, especially for the further application of strategy making of emergency response and disaster prevention and preparations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]