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We analyze the results of a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment obtained for Saudi Arabia using a spatially smoothed seismicity model. The composite up-to-date earthquake catalog is used to model seismicity and to determine earthquake recurrence characteristics. Different techniques that are frequently used for the analysis of input data are applied in the study. The alternative techniques include the declustering procedures for catalog processing, statistical techniques for estimation the magnitude-frequency relationship (MFR), and the seismicity smoothing parameter. The scheme represents epistemic uncertainty that results from an incomplete knowledge of earthquake process and application of alternative mathematical models for a description of the process. Our calculations that are based on the Monte Carlo technique include also a consideration of the aleatory uncertainty related to the dimensions and depths of earthquake sources, parameters of MFR, and scatter of ground-motion parameter. The hazard maps show that the rock-site peak ground acceleration (PGA) is the highest for the seismically active areas in the north-western (Gulf of Aqaba, PGA > 300 cm/s for return period 2475 years) and south-western (PGA > 100 cm/s for return period 2475 years) parts of the country. We show that the procedures for catalog declustering have the highest influence on the results of hazard estimations, especially for high levels of hazard. The choice of smoothing parameter is a very important decision that requires proper caution. The relative uncertainty that is ratio between the 85th and 15th percentiles may reach 50-60% for the areas located near the zones of high-level seismic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed the within-earthquake correlation (peak ground acceleration PGA and velocity PGV) in Japan by taking into account local geological conditions. The database includes more than 23,700 records (K-NET and the KiK-net networks) from 84 events (M 4.2–7.4) occurring in 1999–2011. The correlation structure was investigated for residuals obtained using two recently developed ground-motion models for Japan. We have shown that the level of within-earthquake correlation may vary significantly depending on site classes, general geological conditions and earthquake magnitude. The results of the analysis are in general agreement with the findings obtained recently for Taiwan (Sokolov et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 10(5):1401–1429, 2012 . doi: 10.1007/s10518-012-9368-5 ). The high level of ground-motion correlation reflects the presence of a non-random component in the residuals that may be caused by the joint influence of surface soil and thick sediments, and this influence depends on the earthquake magnitude. Therefore, a single generalized model of within-earthquake correlation across geologically heterogeneous regions may not be adequate. The application of empirical correction factors, which may be a function of earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, site class, and average shear-wave velocity for a given station, allows for effective reduction in the level of within-earthquake correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed the within-earthquake correlation of ground motion using the strong-motion records accumulated by the TSMIP (Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program) network in Taiwan during 1993-2009. Two ground-motion prediction equations, which were recently developed for peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the region and based on moment and local magnitude and hypocentral distance, were used for the calculation and analysis of ground-motion residuals. We also used the database containing shear-wave velocity data averaged for the top 30 m of the soil column (Vs30) for the TSMIP stations. We showed that the within-earthquake correlation may vary significantly depending on site classes, gross geological features of the area, and magnitude of earthquakes, records of which dominate the analysed dataset. On the one hand, there is a prominent correspondence between the within-earthquake correlation of PGA residuals and spatial correlation of Vs30 values, which was estimated for particular geological structures (e.g., sedimentary filled basins and large plain areas). On the other hand, the high level of ground-motion correlation (or significant non-random component of residuals) may be caused by the joint influence of soft surface soil and thick sediments and by the path or azimuthal effects. The point-source approximation of extended fault and neglected hanging- and foot-wall effects may also result in non-random residuals. The application of empirical correction factors, which consider the magnitude of earthquakes, source-to-site distance and Vs30 value for given stations, allows for the effective reduction in the level of within-earthquake correlation, as well as the within-earthquake standard deviation. The results of the analysis may be used in practical estimates of seismic hazard, damage and loss for spatially distributed structures (portfolios, lifelines) in Taiwan, as well in other regions with similar geological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to the mean values of possible loss during an earthquake, parameters of the probability distribution function for the loss to a portfolio (e.g. fractiles and standard deviation) are very important. Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this study, we compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on seismic loss and damage estimations for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. A scenario earthquake approach and a portfolio containing a set of hypothetical building and bridges were used for the purpose. We showed that the relative influences of the types of correlation on characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage are not equal. In some cases, when the median values of loss distribution or the probability that at least one critical element of a lifeline will be damaged are considered and when the spatial correlation of ground motion is used, the possible variations in the between-earthquake correlation may be neglected. The shape of the site-to-site correlation function (i.e. the rate of decrease of the coefficient of spatial correlation with separation distance) seems also to be important when modelling spatially correlated ground-motion fields. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The frequency-dependent amplification for rock (NEHRP-class B) sites was studied using earthquake ground-motion database collected in Taiwan during implementation of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. The database used includes several hundred records from earthquakes of M L 4.0–7.3 occurred between 1993 and 2004. The characteristics of amplification were evaluated using the well-known technique of horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio (H/V) of the S-wave phase [Lermo J, Chavez-Garcia FJ. Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one station. Bull Seism Soc Am 1993;83:1574–94]. The study allows us to analyze peculiarities of rock sites amplification in Northern and Eastern Taiwan. It was suggested to divide the NEHRP-class B site amplification into four types based on frequency of maximum amplification and the shape of amplification function. The applicability of the technique was also checked for a few stiff and soft soil sites (NEHRP-classes D and E). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We analyze the ability of different spectral models to describe the frequency content of ground motion during the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake (MW=7.6, Taiwan) and two large (ML=6.8) aftershocks. The spectral models evaluated include the one-corner model of Brune applied with various key parameters (seismic moment and stress drop), and the two-corner-frequency models proposed for eastern North America [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83 (1993) 1778] and California [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90 (2000) 255]. The ground-motion spectra predicted by these spectral models for hypothetical very hard rock site were compared with the Chi–Chi earthquake data obtained on rock (class B) and soft rock or very dense soil (class C) sites. The approach also allows us evaluating the generalized empirical amplification function for class B and C sites in the region.It has been found that, the amplitude spectra of recorded ground acceleration (the mainshock and aftershocks) for frequencies larger than 0.3–0.4 Hz agree with the modelled two-corner-frequency spectra calculated using the model proposed for California. The single-corner-frequency model also provides a good agreement with the observations when using so-called ‘short-period seismic moment’ [Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors 37 (1985) 108] instead of the reported values obtained from long-period waves. The key parameters used in the single-corner model coincide with parameters of subsources evaluated for the complicated mainshock source. Therefore, it is possible to confirm the suggestion that the short-period seismic waves, at least for the thrust earthquakes, are generated mainly from the fracture of small-scale heterogeneities. The use of two-corner-frequency source model for earthquake spectrum that is based on long-period seismic moment value is equivalent, for frequencies larger than 0.3–0.4 Hz, to the use of single-corner-frequency model that is based on the parameters of major subsource. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground-motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤ML≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the ML=7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake (21 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground-motion parameters (Fourier amplitude spectra, peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the models, and the observed data demonstrates that the models could provide an accurate prediction for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake and the largest aftershocks. However, there are some peculiarities in the ground-motion frequency content and attenuation that, most probably, are caused by the features of the rupture process of the large shallow earthquake source. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The August 17, 1999 Kocaeli earthquake ruptured the earth’s surface along 145 km and produced a magnitude ofM w=7.4. As expected for such an event Modified Mercalli intensities of typically IX and X in the vicinity of the fault were determined. Yet the observed accelerations at the five near-fault sites remained amazingly small with horizontal PGA values of 0.14 g to 0.4 g. We attempt to resolve the enigma by modeling surface ground motion with a finite-difference algorithm, utilizing two different rupture and slip histories derived from the strong-motion observations and ‘translate’ the computed horizontal motion in intensity values. We can show that (a) in a given simple crustal velocity model different slip distributions result in significantly different ground motion distributions in the vicinity of the fault even though both slip distributions fit the observed accelerometer data quite well. (b) Both slip distributions ‘project’ high ground motion into areas adjacent to the fault where no accelerometer was located. (c) Both slip distributions are not fully compatible with observed intensity observations around the fault, although this could be partly attributed to the lack of knowledge regarding to the crustal structure. In the light of our results it would thus be misleading if the few strong-motion observations around the Kocaeli earthquake fault were taken as typical or representative for the entire area and for potential future events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]