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Ecologically relevant references are useful for evaluating ecosystem recovery, but references that are temporally static may be less useful when environmental conditions and disturbances are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. This challenge is particularly acute for ecosystems dominated by sagebrush (

Using localized studies to understand how ecosystems recover can create uncertainty in recovery predictions across landscapes. Large archives of remote sensing data offer opportunities for quantifying the spatial and temporal factors influencing recovery at broad scales and predicting recovery. For example, energy production is a widespread and expanding land use among many semi-arid ecosystems of the Western United States dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), a keystone species providing a variety of ecological services. With remotely-sensed (Landsat) estimates of vegetation cover collected every 2–5 years from southwestern Wyoming, USA, over nearly three decades (1985–2015), we modeled changes in sagebrush cover on 375 former oil and gas well pads in response to weather and site-level conditions. We then used modeled relationships to predict recovery time across the landscape as an indicator of resilience for vegetation after well pad disturbances, where faster recovery indicates a greater capacity to recover when similarly disturbed. We found the rate of change in sagebrush cover generally increased with moisture and temperature, particularly at higher elevations. Rate of change in sagebrush cover also increased and decreased with greater percent sand and larger well pads, respectively. We predicted 21% of the landscape would recover to pre-disturbance conditions within 60 years, whereas other areas may require >100 years for recovery. These predictions and maps could inform future restoration efforts as they reflect resilience. This approach also is applicable to other disturbance types (e.g., fires and vegetation removal treatments) across landscapes, which can further improve conservation efforts by characterizing past conditions and monitoring trends in subsequent years.

It is widely believed that wild and domestic herbivores have modified the structure and composition of arid and semi-arid plant communities of western North America, but these beliefs have rarely been tested in long-term, well-replicated studies. We examined the effects of removing large herbivores from semi-arid shrublands for 40–50 years using 17 fenced exclosures in western Colorado, USA. Shrub cover was greater (F=5.87, P=0.0020) and cover (F=3.01, P=0.0601) and frequency (F=3.89, P=0.0211) of forbs was less inside the exclosures (protected) relative to grazed plots. However, we found no significant effects (minimum P=0.18) of protection from grazing on cover or frequency of grasses, biotic crusts, or bare soil. Although mean species richness and diversity were similar between treatments, protected areas had much higher dominance by fewer species, primarily sagebrush. Exclusion of herbivores changed the relationship between species richness and evenness. Consistent with theoretical expectations, species evenness was positively correlated with richness in protected plots (r 2=0.54). However, contrary to theory, evenness and richness were inversely related in grazed plots (r 2 adjacent=0.72, r 2 distant=0.84). We suggest that these differences resulted because grazing acts as a stressor promoting facilitative relationships between plant species that might compete for resources in the absence of grazing. We conclude that exclusion of grazing in the sites we studied caused minor changes in cover and diversity of herbaceous plants, but caused a clear increase in the cover of shrubs. Importantly, the exclusion of ungulates changed the relationship between evenness and richness.

Improving understanding of the connections between vegetation, herbivory, and ecosystem function offers a fundamental challenge in contemporary terrestrial ecology. Using exclosures constructed during the late 1950s, we examined effects of grazing by wild and domestic herbivores on plant community structure, aboveground herbaceous primary production, and nutrient cycling at six sites in semi-arid, sagebrush rangelands during 2001–2002 in Colorado, USA. Enclosures provided three treatments: no grazing, grazing by wild ungulates only, and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates. Excluding all grazing caused an increase in shrub cover (F = 4.97, P = 0.033) and decrease in bare ground (F = 4.74, P = 0.037), but also a decrease in plant species richness (F = 6.19, P = 0.018) and plant diversity (F = 7.93, P = 0.008). Effects of wild ungulate grazing on plant cover and diversity were intermediate to the effects of combined domestic and wild grazing. Aboveground net primary production was higher in both grazed treatments than in the ungrazed one (F wild + domestic = 2.98, P = 0.0936 and F wild only = 3.55, P = 0.0684). We were unable to detect significant effects of grazing on other ecosystem states and processes including C:N ratios of standing crops, N mineralization potential, or nitrification potential. Best approximating models revealed positive correlation between N availability and herbaceous cover and a negative correlation between herbaceous primary production and the ratio of shrub–herb cover and plant diversity. We conclude that ungulate herbivory, including both wild and domestic ungulates, had significant effects on plant community structure and ecosystem function during this 42-year span. Responses to the wild ungulate treatment were consistently intermediate to responses to the no grazing and wild + domestic grazing treatments. However, we were unable to detect statistical difference between effects of wild ungulates alone and wild ungulates in combination with livestock.