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Predicting contemporary and future species distributions is relevant for science and decision making, yet the development of high-resolution spatial predictions for numerous taxonomic groups and regions is limited by the scalability of available modelling tools. Uniting species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques into one high-performance computing (HPC) pipeline, we developed N-SDM, an SDM platform aimed at delivering reproducible outputs for standard biodiversity assessments. N-SDM was built around a spatially-nested framework, intended at facilitating the combined use of species occurrence data retrieved from multiple sources and at various spatial scales. N-SDM allows combining two models fitted with species and covariate data retrieved from global to regional scales, which is useful for addressing the issue of spatial niche truncation. The set of state-of-the-art SDM features embodied in N-SDM includes a newly devised covariate selection procedure, five modelling algorithms, an algorithm-specific hyperparameter grid search, and the ensemble of small-models approach. N-SDM is designed to be run on HPC environments, allowing the parallel processing of thousands of species at the same time. All the information required for installing and running N-SDM is openly available on the GitHub repository https://github.com/N-SDM/N-SDM., Ecography, 2023 (6), ISSN:0906-7590, ISSN:1600-0587

Species interactions are influenced by the trait structure of local multi-trophic communities. However, it remains unclear whether mutualistic interactions in particular can drive trait patterns at the global scale, where climatic constraints and biogeographic processes gain importance. Here we evaluate global relationships between traits of frugivorous birds and palms (Arecaceae), and how these relationships are affected, directly or indirectly, by assemblage richness, climate and biogeographic history. We leverage a new and expanded gape size dataset for nearly all avian frugivores, and find a positive relationship between gape size and fruit size, that is, trait matching, which is influenced indirectly by palm richness and climate. We also uncover a latitudinal gradient in trait matching strength, which increases towards the tropics and varies among zoogeographic realms. Taken together, our results suggest trophic interactions have consistent influences on trait structure, but that abiotic, biogeographic and richness effects also play important, though sometimes indirect, roles in shaping the functional biogeography of mutualisms.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems., Ecology Letters, 26 (2), ISSN:1461-023X, ISSN:1461-0248

Aim: Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in biodiversity conservation, but remain increasingly threatened by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) in conjunction with global climate change. The latter is modifying the distribution of the former, and the magnitude and direction of distributional changes are predicted to vary depending on species dispersal mode. Here, we address the question of whether clonality is expected to affect the future invasion pattern in PAs. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1950–2100. Major taxa studied: 36 invasive alien plant species. Methods: We used ensembles of three species distribution models (GLM, GAM and Maxent) based on >70,000 occurrence records to project the distribution of 36 of the world's most invasive clonal and non-clonal plants in >20,000 PAs. Projections were based on three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (low, medium and high) for 2080. Results: Climate change showed little impact on the global invasion pattern in PAs, and clonality showed little effect when all biomes were processed in concert. However, we discerned that the future invasion risk of clonal IAPS markedly increased in biomes located at high elevation and high latitude compared with non-clonal IAPS, while the risk decreased in lower-elevation tropical and subtropical biomes where asexual reproduction may be a less successful trait. We also showed that invasion hot spots overlapped with biodiversity hot spots and two realms (i.e. Nearctic and Palearctic), which calls for bridging the gap between invasion and conservation sciences and for more concerted management strategies. Main conclusions: We suggest that effective management of IAPS in PAs should consider in which biomes PAs are located as well as the reproductive traits of IAPS that are present or may become so., Diversity and Distributions, 27 (12), ISSN:1366-9516, ISSN:1472-4642

Aim Local richness is a result of both regional richness and local site‐specific factors. We quantify the effects of different regional (dispersal, environmental filtering) and local (habitat selection) community assembly processes in the Cape reeds (Restionaceae) of the Cape flora and test if community assembly processes vary spatially. Location Southern Africa, Cape Floristic Region. Taxon Angiosperms, African Restionaceae (restios). Methods We calculate local probabilistic species pools, based on local species richness, dispersal rates and environmental filtering at a 4 km2 resolution. We then compare the relative contribution of the processes shaping the species pool spatially. Finally, we correlate observed species richness (based on 916 circular, 10 m diameter releves) with the local species pools to test the explanatory power of additional local edaphic variables that could act as filters at very small scales. Results There is substantial spatial variation in the local probabilistic species pools. Within the central part of the Cape, the local pools are mostly influenced by environmental filtering, while along the periphery dispersal limitation dominates. Observed species richness is lower than the predicted species pool size, which forms an upper boundary of the potential species richness for a local site. Local, site‐specific edaphic factors help to explain the remaining differences between local species pool size and α‐richness. Main conclusion The analytical framework for inferring local probabilistic species pools provides a powerful tool for including the influence of regional species richness on variations in releve α‐richness. This allows us to disentangle the various processes that operate at different spatial scales, and ultimately determine local restio species richness in the Cape Floristic Region.

Seed mass is a main determinant of seedling establishment, particularly under stressful conditions, as bigger seeds offer more resources to the emerging seedling. This has led to the expectation of increased seed mass under harsh conditions. Here, we studied the role of different components of environmental harshness on the evolution of seed size in Pinus. We assessed whether differences in cold and arid conditions between subgenera Strobus and Pinus matched differences in seed mass and tested the existence of positive trends between seed mass and cold and aridity, by controlling for evolutionary patterns that might derive from shared ancestry. Our results corroborate that Strobus pines inhabit drier and/or colder environments and have heavier seeds than subgenus Pinus. Variation in seed mass was largely determined by co-ancestry, and this strong phylogenetic signal cancelled the association between cold and seed size. Conversely, the effect of aridity on the size of pine seeds was unambiguous and independent of ancestry. These results strongly support that aridity exerts directional selection on seed size, which might trigger a selective feedback with vertebrate dispersal. Coupled selection on recruitment and dispersal traits will ultimately determine seed evolution.

Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using a climate model with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 501–672 km2 in Simen and 6,251–7,732 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2,080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The projected expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

International audience; Although the importance of edaphic factors and habitat structure for plant growth and survival is known, both are often neglected in favor of climatic drivers when investigating the spatial patterns of plant species and diversity. Yet, especially in mountain ecosystems with complex topography, missing edaphic and habitat components may be detrimental for a sound understanding of biodiversity distribution. Here, we compare the relative importance of climate, soil and land cover variables when predicting the distributions of 2,616 vascular plant species in the European Alps, representing approximately two‐thirds of all European flora. Using presence‐only data, we built point‐process models (PPMs) to relate species observations to different combinations of covariates. We evaluated the PPMs through block cross‐validations and assessed the independent contributions of climate, soil, and land cover covariates to predict plant species distributions using an innovative predictive partitioning approach. We found climate to be the most influential driver of spatial patterns in plant species with a relative influence of ~58.5% across all species, with decreasing importance from low to high elevations. Soil (~20.1%) and land cover (~21.4%), overall, were less influential than climate, but increased in importance along the elevation gradient. Furthermore, land cover showed strong local effects in lowlands, while the contribution of soil stabilized at mid‐elevations. The decreasing influence of climate with elevation is explained by increasing endemism, and the fact that climate becomes more homogeneous as habitat diversity declines at higher altitudes. In contrast, soil predictors were found to follow the opposite trend. Additionally, at low elevations, human‐mediated land cover effects appear to reduce the importance of climate predictors. We conclude that soil and land cover are, like climate, principal drivers of plant species distribution in the European Alps. While disentangling their effects remains a challenge, future studies can benefit markedly by including soil and land cover effects when predicting species distributions.

Aim To determine the global position of tree line isotherms, compare it with observed local tree limits on islands and mainlands, and disentangle the potential drivers of a difference between tree line and local tree limit. Location Global. Time period 1979–2013. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We modelled the potential climatic tree line based on monthly temperatures and precipitation for the period 1979–2013. We then compared the potential tree line based on climate to observed tree limits at 26 oceanic islands, 55 continental islands and 382 mainland locations. The differences between potential tree line and observed tree limits was then analysed by regression with the islands’ maximum elevation, age, isolation, and area. Additionally, we estimated growing season temperature niches for 16,041 species known to occur in the vicinity of the studied tree lines, and compared them across mainlands, and islands of continental and oceanic origin. Results Observed local tree limits differ up to 2,066 m from the potential tree line at the mainland on oceanic islands. Climatic effects are responsible for a difference of up to 1,296 m between tree lines of mainland regions and oceanic islands (but only for 756 m for continental islands). On oceanic islands, a remaining difference of up to 829 m correlates with the isolation and the maximum elevation of an island. Floras of oceanic islands are however depauperate with respect to potential tree line species and species show an affinity to higher growing season temperatures. Main conclusions Climate can explain about half of the differences between observed local tree limits and potential tree lines between the mainland and continental and oceanic islands. The remaining difference can be attributed to the higher isolation of oceanic islands, especially in the tropics, and as a consequence, a more depauperate flora and a lack of tree species that are able to grow at the tree line.

Aim We aimed to dissect the spatial variation of the direct and indirect effects of climate and productivity on global species richness of terrestrial tetrapods. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Terrestrial tetrapods. Methods We used a geographically weighted path analysis to estimate and map the direct and indirect effects of temperature, precipitation and primary productivity on species richness of terrestrial tetrapods across the globe. Results We found that all relationships shift in magnitude, and even in direction, among taxonomic groups, geographical regions and connecting paths. Direct effects of temperature and precipitation are generally stronger than both indirect effects mediated by productivity and direct effects of productivity. Main conclusions Richness gradients seem to be driven primarily by effects of climate on organismal physiological limits and metabolic rates rather than by the amount of productive energy. Reptiles have the most distinct relationships across tetrapods, with a clear latitudinal pattern in the importance of temperature versus water.

Aim Historically, biomes have been defined based on their structurally and functionally similar vegetation, but there is debate about whether these similarities are superficial, and about how biomes are defined and mapped. We propose that combined assessment of evolutionary convergence of plant functional traits and phylogenetic biome conservatism provides a useful approach for characterizing biomes. We focus on the little‐known succulent biome, a trans‐continentally distributed assemblage of succulent‐rich, drought‐deciduous, fire‐free forest, thicket and scrub vegetation as a useful exemplar biome to gain insights into these questions. Location Global lowland (sub)tropics. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Angiosperms. Methods We use a model ensemble approach to model the distribution of 884 species of stem succulents, a plant functional group representing a striking example of evolutionary convergence. Using this model, phylogenies, and species occurrence data, we quantify phylogenetic succulent biome conservatism for 10 non‐succulent trans‐continental plant clades including prominent elements of the succulent biome, representing over 800 species. Results The geographical and climatic distributions of stem succulents provide an objective and quantitative proxy for mapping the distribution of the succulent biome. High fractions of succulent biome occupancy across continents suggest all 10 non‐succulent study clades are phylogenetically conserved within the succulent biome. Main conclusions The trans‐continental succulent and savanna biomes both show evolutionary convergence in key biome‐related plant functional traits. However, in contrast to the savanna biome, which was apparently assembled via repeated local recruitment of lineages via biome shifts from adjacent biomes within continents, the succulent biome forms a coherent trans‐continental evolutionary arena for drought‐adapted tropical biome conserved lineages. Recognizing the important functional differences between the succulent‐rich, grass‐poor, fire‐free succulent biome and the grass‐dominated, succulent‐poor, fire‐prone savanna biome, and defining them as distinct seasonally dry tropical biomes, occupying essentially non‐overlapping distributions, provides critical insights into tropical biodiversity and the extent of biome stasis versus biome shifting. ISSN:1466-822X ISSN:1466-8238

Genome skimming has the potential for generating large data sets for DNA barcoding and wider biodiversity genomic studies, particularly via the assembly and annotation of full chloroplast (cpDNA) and nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) sequences. We compare the success of genome skims of 2051 herbarium specimens from Norway/Polar regions with 4604 freshly collected, silica gel dried specimens mainly from the European Alps and the Carpathians. Overall, we were able to assemble the full chloroplast genome for 67% of the samples and the full nrDNA cluster for 86%. Average insert length, cover and full cpDNA and rDNA assembly were considerably higher for silica gel dried than herbarium-preserved material. However, complete plastid genomes were still assembled for 54% of herbarium samples compared to 70% of silica dried samples. Moreover, there was comparable recovery of coding genes from both tissue sources (121 for silica gel dried and 118 for herbarium material) and only minor differences in assembly success of standard barcodes between silica dried (89% ITS2, 96% matK and rbcL) and herbarium material (87% ITS2, 98% matK and rbcL). The success rate was &gt, 90% for all three markers in 1034 of 1036 genera in 160 families, and only Boraginaceae worked poorly, with 7 genera failing. Our study shows that large-scale genome skims are feasible and work well across most of the land plant families and genera we tested, independently of material type. It is therefore an efficient method for increasing the availability of plant biodiversity genomic data to support a multitude of downstream applications.

International audience; Aim: Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are the most common tool to predict the impact of climate change on biodiversity. They can be tuned to fit relationships at various levels of complexity (defined here as parameterization complexity, number of predictors, and multicollinearity) that may co-determine whether projections to novel climatic conditions are useful or misleading. Here, we assessed how model complexity affects the performance of model extrapolations and influences projections of species ranges under future climate change. Location: Europe. Taxon: 34 European tree species. Methods: We sampled three replicates of predictor sets for all combinations of 10 levels (n = 3-12) of environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil) and 10 levels of multicollinearity. We used these sets for each species to fit four SDM algorithms at three levels of parameterization complexity. The >100,000 resulting SDM fits were then evaluated under environmental block cross-validation and projected to environmental conditions for 2061-2080 considering four climate models and two emission scenarios. Finally, we investigated the relationships of model design with model performance and projected distributional changes. Results: Model complexity affected both model performance and projections of species distributional change. Fits of intermediate parameterization complexity performed best, and more complex parameterizations were associated with higher projected loss of current ranges. Model performance peaked at 10-11 variables but increasing number of variables had no consistent effect on distributional change projections. Multicollinearity had a low impact on model performance but distinctly increased projected loss of current ranges. Main conclusions: SDM-based climate change impact assessments should be based on ensembles of projections, varying SDM algorithms as well as parameterization complexity, besides emission scenarios and climate models. The number of predictor variables should be kept reasonably small and the classical threshold of maximum absolute Pearson correlation of 0.7 restricts collinearity-driven effects in projections of species ranges.

Recent years have seen an exponential increase in the amount of data available in all sciences and application domains. Macroecology is part of this "Big Data" trend, with a strong rise in the volume of data that we are using for our research. Here, we summarize the most recent developments in macroecology in the age of Big Data that were presented at the 2018 annual meeting of the Specialist Group Macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (Gfo). Supported by computational advances, macroecology has been a rapidly developing field over recent years. Our meeting highlighted important avenues for further progress in terms of standardized data collection, data integration, method development and process integration. In particular, we focus on (a) important data gaps and new initiatives to close them, for example through space- and airborne sensors, (b) how various data sources and types can be integrated, (c) how uncertainty can be assessed in data-driven analyses and (d) how Big Data and machine learning approaches have opened new ways of investigating processes rather than simply describing patterns. We discuss how Big Data opens up new opportunities, but also poses new challenges to macroecological research. In the future, it will be essential to carefully assess data quality, the reproducibility of data compilation and analytical methods, and the communication of uncertainties. Major progress in the field will depend on the definition of data standards and workflows for macroecology, such that scientific quality and integrity are guaranteed, and collaboration in research projects is made easier.

Background: We aimed to characterise the geographical distribution of Sorensen-based multi-site dissimilarity (beta(sor)) and its underlying true turnover (beta(sim)) and nestedness (beta(sne)) components for Chinese Lauraceae and to analyse their relationships to current climate and past climate change. Methods: We used ensembles of small models (ESMs) to map the current distributions of 353 Lauraceae species in China and calculated beta(sor) and its beta(sim) and beta(sne) components. We tested the relationship between beta(sor), beta s(ne) and beta(sim) with current climate and past climate change related predictors using a series of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR(err)) models. Results: Spatial distribution of beta(sor) of Lauraceae is positively correlated with latitude, showing an inverse relationship to the latitudinal alpha-diversity (species richness) gradient. High beta(sor) occurs at the boundaries of the warm temperate and subtropical zones and at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau due to high beta(sne). The optimized SAR(err) model explains beta(sor) and beta(sne) well, but not beta(sim). Current mean annual temperature determines beta(sor) and beta(sne) of Lauraceae more than anomalies and velocities of temperature or precipitation since the Last Glacial Maximum. Conclusions: Current low temperatures and high climatic heterogeneity are the main factors explaining the high multi-site beta-diversity of Lauraceae. In contrast to analyses of the beta-diversity of entire species assemblages, studies of single plant families can provide complementary insights into the drivers of beta-diversity of evolutionarily more narrowly defined entities.

Although much research has explored changes in ecosystem functions associated with global environmental changes, the mechanistic pathways behind the observed changes remain poorly understood. Using an 11‐year experiment that increased growing season precipitation and nitrogen deposition in a temperate steppe, we explored the relative importance of direct and indirect environmental change effects on plant primary productivity. We show that increases in water and nitrogen availability influenced plant productivity via both direct and indirect pathways. While both treatments stimulated plant productivity, changes in plant productivity cannot be explained by observed changes in species or phylogenetic diversity. Instead, the indirect effects of water and nitrogen addition were through their positive effects on plant functional diversity. Importantly, while the increase in one component of functional diversity (community‐level weighted mean of plant stature) resulted in increased productivity, the increase in another component of functional diversity (functional dispersion) resulted in decreased productivity. Synthesis. Our study provides the first evidence for the opposite effects of community‐weighted means and functional dispersion of plant functional traits on grassland productivity and highlights the importance of both traits of dominant species and trait distribution among species in modulating the effects of global changes on ecosystem functions.

Plant endemism in the European Alps is clustered into particular geographic areas. Two contrasted and non exclusive hypotheses have been suggested to explain these hotspots of endemism: (i) those areas were glacial refugia, where endemism reflects survival-recolonisation dynamics since the onset of Pleistocene glaciations, (ii) those are high elevation mountain areas, where endemism was fostered by local speciation events due to geographic isolation and harsh environmental niches, or by low dispersal ability of inhabiting species. Here, we quantitatively compared these two hypotheses using data of species distribution in the European Alps (IntraBioDiv database), species phylogenetic relationships, and species ecological and biological characteristics. We developed a spatially and phylogenetically explicit modelling framework to analyze spatial patterns of endemism and the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages. Moreover, we analyzed interrelations between species trait syndromes and endemism. We found that high endemism occurrs in potential glacial refugia, but only those on calcareous bedrock, and also in areas with high elevation. Plant assemblages in calcareous refugia showed phylogenetic overdispersion – a signature of non-selective conservation forces, whereas those located in high mountain areas showed phylogenetic clustering – a signature of recent diversification and environmental filtering. Endemic species were either stress-tolerant, poorly dispersing species, or high elevation specialists with a wide distribution within the European Alps. While both calcareous refugia and high-elevation hotspots harbour a large portion of plant endemism in the European Alps, the species they host have substantially different characteristics. Our results suggest that hotspots of endemism in calcareous refugia are more important for nature conservation planning, as they host many range restricted endemic species and rather isolated evolutionary lineages.

Coexistence theory has been developed with an almost exclusive focus on interactions between two species, often ignoring more complex and indirect interactions, such as intransitive loops, that can emerge in competition networks. In fact, intransitive competition has typically been studied in isolation from other pairwise stabilising processes, and thus little is known about how intransitivity interacts with more traditional drivers of species coexistence such as niche partitioning. To integrate intransitivity into traditional coexistence theory, we developed a metric of growth rate when rare, Δri¯, to identify and quantify the impact of intransitive competition against a backdrop of pairwise stabilising niche differences. Using this index with simulations of community dynamics, we demonstrate that intransitive loops can both stabilise or destabilise species coexistence, but the strength and importance of intransitive interactions are significantly affected by the length and the topology of these loops. We conclude by showing how Δri¯ can be used to evaluate effects of intransitivity in empirical studies. Our results emphasise the need to integrate complex mechanisms emerging from diverse interactions into our understanding of species coexistence.

There is ample evidence for species distributional changes in response to recent climate change, but most studies are biased toward better known taxa. Thus, an integrated approach is needed that includes the “cryptic diversity” represented partly by lichens, which are among the most sensitive organisms to environmental change due to their physiological characteristics. The use of functional traits and ecological attributes may improve the interpretation of how species respond to climate change. Thus, we quantified the future climate change impacts on 41 lichen species distributed in the Iberian Peninsula using ensemble climatic suitability maps (derived from generalized linear and generalized additive models, and classification and regression tree analysis) and different metrics. We also determined the lichen traits/attributes that might be related to a shared response to climate change. The results indicated a loss of bioclimatic space for 75% of the species studied and an increase for 10 species, especially in Mediterranean ones. Most of the species that will lose more than 70% of their current modeled distribution area comprised big macrolichens with cyanobacteria as the photobiont, thereby indicating a great biomass loss in forests, which might affect nutrient cycles. We also found that the predicted distributions were trait-related. Smaller species, green-algae lichens, and saxicolous and epiphyte species will respond better to future climate change. The results of this type of study may help to identify the species that are most vulnerable to climate change and facilitate the development of conservation measures to avoid their decline.

Aim Biological invasions are today the second-largest global threat for biodiversity. Once introduced, exotic plant species can modify ecosystem composition, structure and dynamics, eventually driving native species to local extinction. Among the groups of organisms, most likely to be directly affected by exotic invasive plants are herbivorous insects, such as butterflies, which strongly depend on plants throughout their life cycle. However, it remains unclear whether invasive plants have a negative or a positive effect on butterfly diversity at a landscape scale. Location Switzerland. Methods Using an extensive inventory (393 sites across Switzerland) of both butterfly and invasive plants, we explore the impact of 31 invasive black listed plant species on local butterfly richness. We further identify each butterfly species’ response to invasive plants (i.e. positive, neutral or negative) and analyse the functional and phylogenetic characteristics of these different groups of species. Results Our results indicate that butterfly richness negatively correlates with an increase in invasive plant richness. When studying the individual response of each butterfly species to the number of invasive plants, we found that no single butterfly is profiting from invasive plant species, while 28 butterfly species (24%) suffer from the presence of invasive plants. We further show that the species negatively affected are on average less mobile than the unaffected species and that they are phylogenetically clustered. Main conclusions Our results present evidences of the influence of invasive species on other trophic levels and interaction networks. We further highlight that a lack of management efforts for mitigating invasive plant impacts threatens specific sections of the functional and phylogenetic diversity of butterflies.

A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance of 33 variants of 15 widely applied and recently emerged SDMs in the context of multispecies data, including both joint SDMs that model multiple species together, and stacked SDMs that model each species individually combining the predictions afterward. We offer a comprehensive evaluation of these SDM approaches by examining their performance in predicting withheld empirical validation data of different sizes representing five different taxonomic groups, and for prediction tasks related to both interpolation and extrapolation. We measure predictive performance by 12 measures of accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, and precision of predictions, for the biological levels of species occurrence, species richness, and community composition. Our results show large variation among the models in their predictive performance, especially for communities comprising many species that are rare. The results do not reveal any major trade-offs among measures of model performance; the same models performed generally well in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, and for the biological levels of individual species, species richness, and community composition. In contrast, the models that gave the most precise predictions were not well calibrated, suggesting that poorly performing models can make overconfident predictions. However, none of the models performed well for all prediction tasks. As a general strategy, we therefore propose that researchers fit a small set of models showing complementary performance, and then apply a cross-validation procedure involving separate data to establish which of these models performs best for the goal of the study., This work was funded by the Research Foundation of the University of Helsinki (A. Norberg), the Academy of Finland (CoE grant 284601 and grant 309581 to O. Ovaskainen, grant 308651 to N. Abrego, grant 1275606 to A. Lehikoinen), the Research Council of Norway (CoE grant 223257), the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation, and the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (grant CGL2015‐68438‐P to M. B. Araújo).

The relationship between species' niche breadth (i.e. the range of environmental conditions under which a species can persist) and range size (i.e. the extent of its spatial distribution) has mostly been tested within geographically restricted areas but rarely at the global extent.[br/] Here, we not only tested the relationship between range size (derived from species' distribution data) and niche breadth (derived from species' distribution and co-occurrence data) of 1255 plant species at the regional extent of the European Alps, but also at the global extent and across both spatial scales for a subset of 180 species.[br/] Using correlation analyses, linear models and variation partitioning, we found that species' realized niche breadth estimated at the regional level is a weak predictor of species' global niche breadth and range size.[br/] Against our expectations, distribution-derived niche breadth was a better predictor for species' range size than the co-occurrence-based estimate, which should, theoretically, account for more than the climatically determined niche dimensions.[br/] Our findings highlight that studies focusing on the niche breadth vs range size relationship must explicitly consider spatial mismatches that might have confounded and diminished previously reported relationships.

Seed dispersal is a major life history stage for plants. Because of its influence on reproductive success, dispersal is expected to be under strong selection. Different ecological circumstances might favour dispersal towards few suitable sites or alternatively, the random distribution of propagules among suitable and unsuitable sites. However, the evolutionary dynamics favouring specific dispersal syndromes remain a matter of speculation in many cases. Here, we explore the linkage between dispersal and environmental conditions at an evolutionary scale. We use a comparative phylogenetic approach to investigate the evolution of dispersal morphology in the genus Pinus and its connection with climatic variability, aridity and fire. Our results show that dispersal appears to have evolved towards two alternative strategies: seeds with vs. without wings, closely matching the distribution of wind- and vertebrate- mediated dispersal within the genus. Moreover, we find a close evolutionary association between dispersal morphology and environmental conditions such that each morphology predominates under particular abiotic conditions. Seeds with bigger wings are selected for primarily in environments with high temperature variability and/or prone to fire, whereas wingless or remnant-winged seeds are evolutionarily linked primarily to environments that are arid or exhibit a high variability in rainfall. These findings suggest a role of seed dispersal in the adaptation to certain environmental conditions, along with the influence of such conditions on the evolution of plant functional traits.

In the European Alpine System, the Carpathian Mountains are recognized as one of the major centres of diversity and endemism. In the present study, we aimed to explain the spatial structure of plant endemism in its South-Eastern subunit by the complementary use of diversity indices, parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE), biotic element analysis (BEA), and barrier analysis. We analyzed the available information on 111 plant taxa confined to the South-Eastern Carpathians, mapped using two different sets of operational geographical units (OGUs): 71 geomorphological units and 64 quadrats. Our results showed that centres of endemics diversity largely corresponded to the areas of endemism and biotic elements. PAE consensus cladogram outlined four major areas of endemism (with three nested ones): (1) Danubian; (2) western part of the Southern Carpathians; (3) eastern part of the Southern Carpathians; and (4) Pocutico-Marmarossian. Out of the seven identified biotic elements, five were spatially clustered and overlapped the major areas of endemism, with one notable exception: the calcareous massifs from the Eastern Carpathians, not identified through PAE. Conversely, the latter outlined a nested area of endemism (Cozia – Buila-Vânturarița), omitted by BEA. Barrier analysis identified three major breaks in the distribution of endemics: (1) south of the Retezat – Țarcu – Godeanu mountain group; (2) north of the Piatra Craiului – Bucegi – Ciucaș mountain group; and (3) north of the Rodna massif. The results obtained in here using different methods are generally spatially convergent, indicating highly structured patterns of endemism in the South-Eastern Carpathians. These patterns mostly follow the present-day distribution of alpine habitats and calcareous bedrock, which might have acted as isolating factors through insularity. Interestingly, three of the spatial clusters of OGUs obtained from the endemics distribution analyses (the Eastern Carpathians, as well as eastern and western parts of the Southern Carpathians) largely also correspond to the mid-Miocene archipelago configuration of landmasses in this part of the Carpathians. This might suggest the existence of older migration barriers that emerged throughout the Neogene Period. Differences in the spatial patterns outlined by PAE and BEA could stem from partial sympatry of endemics caused by post-speciation processes such as dispersal or extinction. Additionally, sympatric distribution of taxa with disjunct populations may be caused by the absence of divergence among segregated populations, such as the patterns of relict distributions seen in alpine plants. Finally, the complementary use of these methods may prove to be an efficient approach for better understanding the geographical structure of endemism and provide a starting point for further testing of hypotheses on evolutionary processes.

Aim We assess main ecological determinants affecting the comparative performance of macroecological models (MEMs) that model species richness directly, and stacked species distribution models based on stacking probabilities (pS-SDMs) and binary predictions (bS-SDMs). Specifically, we aimed to understand how statistical effects such as prevalence and environmental heterogeneity are entangled with species' ecology in Swiss avian assemblages. Location Switzerland. Methods We tested for statistical and ecological effects on overprediction and underprediction by regressing species richness residuals against community-averaged values of prevalence, functional traits and functional dissimilarity. Further, we defined bird functional groups through hierarchical clustering and compared accuracy of species richness predictions between groups to understand the differences between model types and ecological determinants thereof. Last, we tested how accuracy of species assemblages constructed from bS-SDMs relates to species' functional characteristics. Results Underprediction of high diversity sites by pS-SDMs and MEMs was mainly explained by prevalence, whereas overprediction of low diversity sites was strongly affected by diet and habitat traits, and increased with functional dissimilarity. Model performances varied strongly between functional groups with more accurate and less biased predictions for generalist species groups. Critically, overprediction bias in richness predictions by bS-SDMs was uncorrelated with assemblage prediction success. Main conclusions The reliability of all community models tested here strongly depended on functional species' characteristics related mainly to diet, foraging and breeding habitat. This underlines the need to incorporate all relevant and species-specific or functional group-specific ecological filters in the models. Improved prediction accuracy of species richness will require finer-resolved environmental predictors that better describe available niche space and account for specific spatial and resource requirements of different species. More research is needed to understand the relationship between accuracy of species richness and species assemblage predictions in bS-SDMs as well as the role of biotic interactions.

Summary Attempts at explaining range limits of temperate tree species still rest on correlations with climatic data that lack a physiological justification. Here, we present a synthesis of a multidisciplinary project that offers mechanistic explanations. Employing climatology, biogeography, dendrology, population and reproduction biology, stress physiology and phenology, we combine results from in situ elevational (Swiss Alps) and latitudinal (Alps vs. Scandinavia) comparisons, from reciprocal common garden and phytotron studies for eight European broadleaf tree species. We show that unlike for low-stature plants, tree canopy temperatures can be predicted from weather station data, and that low-temperature extremes in winter do not explain range limits. At the current low-temperature range limit, all species recruit well. Transplants revealed that the local environment rather than elevation of seed origin dominates growth and phenology. Tree ring width at the range limit is not related to season length, but to growing season temperature, with no evidence of carbon shortage. Bud break and leaf emergence in adults trees are timed in such a way that the probability of freezing damage is almost zero, with a uniform safety margin across elevations and taxa. More freezing-resistant species flush earlier than less resistant species. Synthesis: we conclude that the range limits of the examined tree species are set by the interactive influence of freezing resistance in spring, phenology settings, and the time required to mature tissue. Microevolution of spring phenology compromises between demands set by freezing resistance of young, immature tissue and season length requirements related to autumnal tissue maturation.

Summary 1. While fire-induced changes in biodiversity are well documented, less is known about how fire impacts life-history variation and diversity of functional traits that represent distinct strategies for persistence in fire-driven ecosystems. One example is the dichotomy in which ‘resprouter’ species usually survive fires to produce new growth, while ‘reseeder’ species perish and re-establish from seed. 2. Variablerelativenumbers of reseederand resprouter speciesin local assemblagesof Restionaceae (Poales) of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), and their high species richness and endemism, make this family representative of the region’s functional, taxonomic and ecological diversity. 3. We investigate how the proportion of resprouter species (resprouter fraction) changes among edaphic conditions and along a climate moisture (i.e. aridity) gradient that integrates annual precipitation (range 130‐1300 mm) and potential evapotranspiration (range 3‐ 8 mm m ! 2 day ! 1 ). We sampled local assemblages using a stratified-random design that fully spanned the environmental conditions of the CFR. 4. As climate moisture across sites with infertile soils increased, so did resprouter fraction. Resprouters may increasingly dominate reseeders as moisture increases under conditions in which productivity is generally limited. This suggests the explanatory hypothesis that in these conditions, greater moisture accelerates both biomass accumulation (fuel) and fire frequency, providing an advantage to resprouters. However, we found no evidence for increasing resprouter fraction with increasing climate moisture on more fertile soils. 5. This statistical interaction suggests the possibility that moisture affects resprouter fraction dependent on soil fertility, potentially through: (i) impacts on species composition, if soil type acts as an environmental filter or promotes biotic interactions, and/or (ii) impacts on fire dynamics, potentially through fuel load drying rates. Future research should include a comprehensive fire model for the CFR, to enable direct examination of relationships of life-history and functional traits across variation in fire dynamics. Additionally, our results indicate that we need both (i) demographic studies on plant establishment, growth rates and survival, and (ii) field experiments that address how environmental and biotic filters affect species composition across variable fire regimes. These together should facilitate mechanistic interpretation of how fire mediates life-history variation and diversity of functional traits in the CFR.

Plant endemism in the European Alps is clustered into particular geographic areas. Two contrasted and non exclusive hypotheses have been suggested to explain these hotspots of endemism: (i) those areas were glacial refugia, where endemism reflects survival-recolonisation dynamics since the onset of Pleistocene glaciations, (ii) those are high elevation mountain areas, where endemism was fostered by local speciation events due to geographic isolation and harsh environmental niches, or by low dispersal ability of inhabiting species. Here, we quantitatively compared these two hypotheses using data of species distribution in the European Alps (IntraBioDiv database), species phylogenetic relationships, and species ecological and biological characteristics. We developed a spatially and phylogenetically explicit modeling framework to analyze spatial patterns of endemism and the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages. Moreover, we analyzed interrelations between species trait syndromes and endemism. We found that high endemism occurrs in potential glacial refugia, but only those on calcareous bedrock, and also in areas with high elevation. Plant assemblages in calcareous refugia showed phylogenetic overdispersion − a signature of non-selective conservation forces, whereas those located in high mountain areas showed phylogenetic clustering − a signature of recent diversification and environmental filtering. Endemic species were either stress-tolerant, poorly dispersing species, or high elevation specialists with a wide distribution within the European Alps. While both calcareous refugia and high-elevation hotspots harbour a large portion of plant endemism in the European Alps, the species they host have substantially different characteristics. Our results suggest that hotspots of endemism in calcareous refugia are more important for nature conservation planning, as they host many range restricted endemic species and rather isolated evolutionary lineages.

International audience; Aim: Seasonal migration by animals is an extensively studied, global phenomenon. Yet, we still lack a general understanding whether migrants track their niche between summer and winter ranges (following fixed environmental conditions throughout the year) and which mechanisms influence this behaviour. Here, we assessed the degree of seasonal niche tracking in Holarctic long-distance migratory birds (n = 717; excluding very rare species) and evaluate the influence of biogeographic (regional and range characteristics) and ecological (trophic) factors on tracking. Location: Global. Taxon: Birds. Methods: We calculated seasonal niche overlap by means of ordination, and estimated the degree of niche tracking using similarity tests. Niche tracking was evaluated for two different environmental predictor sets: climate and vegetation productivity (reflecting resource selection) versus climate and land cover (reflecting habitat choice). Multivariate phylogenetic regression was used to evaluate effects of biogeographic and ecological traits on niche tracking. Results: We found significant niche tracking in 65-95% of species with a higher proportion of species significantly tracking climate and land cover compared to climate and vegetation productivity. Traits explained 12-18% of the variance in niche tracking with strong regional differences, a negative effect of migration distance and positive effects of range size on niche tracking. The effects of niche breadth and trophic traits were less pronounced and varied between environmental predictor sets. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that at coarse spatial resolution, long-distance migratory species tend to track their niche and select largely similar environments through seasons. Stronger niche tracking of land cover could reflect conservatism in habitat selection across seasons, for example for foraging and roosting. This conservatism towards land cover should be considered when making predictions to future environments. A better understanding of the factors that constrain seasonal range limits will be critical for predicting how migration patterns could respond to future environmental changes.

Aim Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the d ...

Aim To disentangle the effects of environmental and geographical processes driving phylogenetic distances among clades of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster). To assess the implications for conservation management of combining molecular information with species distribution models (SDMs; which predict species distribution based on known occurrence records and on environmental variables). Location Western Mediterranean Basin and European Atlantic coast. Methods We undertook two cluster analyses for eight genetically defined pine clades based on climatic niche and genetic similarities. We assessed niche similarity by means of a principal component analysis and Schoener's D metric. To calculate genetic similarity, we used the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean based on Nei's distance using 266 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We then assessed the contribution of environmental and geographical distances to phylogenetic distance by means of Mantel regression with variance partitioning. Finally, we compared the projection obtained from SDMs fitted from the species level (SDMsp) and composed from the eight clade-level models (SDMcm). Results Genetically and environmentally defined clusters were identical. Environmental and geographical distances explained 12.6% of the phylogenetic distance variation and, overall, geographical and environmental overlap among clades was low. Large differences were detected between SDMsp and SDMcm (57.75% of disagreement in the areas predicted as suitable). Main conclusions The genetic structure within the maritime pine subspecies complex is primarily a consequence of its demographic history, as seen by the high proportion of unexplained variation in phylogenetic distances. Nevertheless, our results highlight the contribution of local environmental adaptation in shaping the lower-order, phylogeographical distribution patterns and spatial genetic structure of maritime pine: (1) genetically and environmentally defined clusters are consistent, and (2) environment, rather than geography, explained a higher proportion of variation in phylogenetic distance. SDMs, key tools in conservation management, better characterize the fundamental niche of the species when they include molecular information.

BackgroundThe taxonomy of the genus Pinus is widely accepted and a well-resolved phylogeny based on entire plastome sequences exists. However, there is a large discrepancy in estimated divergence times of major pine clades among existing studies mainly due to differences in fossil placement and dating methods used. We currently lack a dated molecular pine phylogeny that makes full usage of the rich fossil record in pines. This study is the first to estimate the divergence dates of pines based on a large number of fossils (21) evenly distributed across all major clades in combination with applying the most novel dating method.ResultsWe present a range of molecular phylogenetic trees of Pinus generated within a Bayesian framework using both the novel fossilized birth-death and the traditional node dating method with different fossil sets. We find the origin of pines likely to be up to 30 Myr older (Early Cretaceous) than inferred in most previous studies (Late Cretaceous) and propose generally older divergence times for major clades within Pinus than previously thought. Our age estimates vary significantly between the different dating approaches but the results generally agree on older divergence times. We present a revised list of 21 fossils that are suitable to use in dating or comparative analyses of pines.ConclusionsAn accurate timescale for the divergence times in pines is essential if we are to link diversification processes and functional adaptation of this genus to geological events or to changing climates. Next to older divergence times in Pinus, our results indicate that node age estimates in pines depend on dating approaches and fossil sets used due to different inherent characteristics of dating approaches. Our set of dated phylogenetic trees of pines presented herein provide the basis to account for uncertainties in age estimations when applying comparative phylogenetic methods, which will improve our understanding of the evolutionary and ecological history in pines.

Aim To integrate two major components of vulnerability to climate change adaptive capacity (approached by genetic groups) and exposure (approached by risk of habitat loss) illustrated with the maritime (Pinus pinaster Ait.) and Aleppo (Pinus halepensis Mill.) pines. To integrate such information in the selection of conservation strategies (ex situ vs. in situ) and to evaluate current European efforts in the conservation of forest genetic resources. Location Mediterranean Basin and European Atlantic coast. Methods With the objective of preserving the overall genetic diversity of our two target species, we individually assess each of their genetic groups. We fit a species distribution model and project it to current climate and 42 different future climatic predictions. We create future suitability maps to assess risk of habitat loss based on the number of future climate projections that predict suitability. According to this assessment on the risk of habitat loss, we propose suitable conservation strategies. Results We found areas suitable for in situ conservation for most of the genetic groups, the exception being the central–eastern–southern Iberian genetic groups of maritime pine and the Moroccan genetic group of Aleppo pine which required ex situ conservation. In the current European conservation network, three genetic groups for maritime pine and two for Aleppo pine remain unrepresented, and the representation of the rest is unbalanced. Main conclusions We provide a tool to support conservation management of forest trees, an increasingly important task given the negative impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. We also provide a framework to increase the efficiency of the European conservation network (i) exposure assessment should be considered as a requirement for a population to become a dynamic conservation unit (DCU); and (ii) as illustrated with our two target species, the selection of DCUs should represent all existing genetic groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

The tropical alpine ecosystem in eastern Africa is highly fragmented among biological ‘sky islands’, where populations of frost-tolerant organisms are isolated from each other by a ‘sea’ of tropical lowlands. One-third of the species in the afroalpine flora are exclusively alpine, but the other species can to varying degrees extend into grasslands and open forests of lower vegetation belts. A long-debated question is whether colonization of the alpine zone of these mountains and subsequent intermountain gene flow entirely depend on long-distance dispersal across unsuitable habitats, or whether suitable habitats shifted far enough downslope under past colder climates to form bridges enabling gradual migration. Here we address this question using a classification tree model. We mapped the extent of the current alpine habitat and projected it to the last glacial maximum (LGM) climate to assess whether gradual migration was possible for exclusively alpine taxa during this glacial period, and thus potentially also during earlier Pleistocene glaciations. Next, we modelled landcover under current and LGM climates to assess whether grassland and open forests could have served as migration corridors for alpine taxa that today extend into lower vegetation belts. We estimated that the LGM treeline was about 1000 m lower and the alpine habitat was about eight times larger than that today. At the LGM, we found that most of the currently fragmented alpine habitat of the Ethiopian highlands was interconnected except across the Great Rift Valley, whereas the solitary mountains of East/Central Africa remained isolated for exclusively alpine species. However, for drought-tolerant alpine species that today extend below the treeline, gradual migration through habitat corridors may have been possible among mountains during the dry glacial periods, and possibly also under the current climate before agriculture transformed the low-lying landscapes. Afroalpine · CART · Gene flow · Habitat connectivity · Last glacial maximum · Treeline This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Alpine Botany. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00035-017-0184-z

Aim To incorporate changes in alpine land cover (tree line shift, glacier retreat and primary succession) into species distribution model (SDM) predictions for a selection of 31 high-elevation plants. Location Chamonix Valley, French Alps. Methods We fit linear mixed effects (LME) models to historical changes in forest and glacier cover and projected these trends forward to align with 21st century IPCC climate scenarios. We used a logistic function to model the probability of plant establishment in glacial forelands zones expected to become ice free between 2008 and 2051–2080. Habitat filtering consisted of intersecting land cover maps with climate-driven SDMs to refine habitat suitability predictions. SDM outputs for tree, heath and alpine species were compared based on whether habitat filtering during the prediction period was carried out using present-day (static) land cover, future (dynamic) land cover filters or no land cover filter (unfiltered). Species range change (SRC) was used to measure differences in habitat suitability predictions across methods. Results LME predictions for 2021–2080 showed continued glacier retreat, tree line rise and primary succession in glacier forelands. SRC was highest in the unfiltered scenario (−10%), intermediate in the dynamic scenario (−15%) and lowest in the static scenario (−31%). Tree species were the only group predicted to gain overall range by 2051–2080. Although alpine plants lost range in all three land cover scenarios, new habitat made available by glacier retreat in the dynamic land cover scenario buffered alpine plant range loss due to climate change. Main conclusions We provide a framework for combining trajectories of land cover change with SDM predictions. Our pilot study shows that incorporating shifts in land cover improves habitat suitability predictions and leads to contrasting outcomes of future mountain plant distribution. Alpine plants in particular may lose less suitable habitat than standard SDMs predict due to 21st century glacier retreat.

Vegetation is a key driver of ecosystem functioning (e.g. productivity and stability) and of the maintenance of biodiversity (e.g. creating habitats for other species groups). While vegetation sensitivity to climate change has been widely investgated, its spatio-temporally response to the dual efects of land management and climate change has been ignored at landscape scale. Here we use a dynamic vegetation model called FATE-HD, which describes the dominant vegetation dynamics and associated functional diversity, in order to anticipate vegetation response to climate and land-use changes in both short and long-term perspectives. Using three contrasted management scenarios for the Ecrins National Park (French Alps) developed in collaboration with the park managers, and one regional climate change scenario, we tracked the dynamics of vegetation structure (forest expansion) and functional diversity over 100 years of climate change and a further 400 additional years of stabilization. As expected, we observed a slow upward shift in forest cover distribution, which appears to be severely impacted by pasture management (i.e. maintenance or abandonment). The tme lag before observing changes in vegetation cover was the result of demographic and seed dispersal processes. However, plant diversity response to environmental changes was rapid. Afer land abandonment, local diversity increased and spatial turnover was reduced, whereas local diversity decreased following land use intensification. Interestingly, in the long term, as both climate and management scenarios interacted, the regional diversity declined. Our innovative spatio-temporally explicit framework demonstrates that the vegetation may have contrasting responses to changes in the short and the long term. Moreover, climate and land-abandonment interact extensively leading to a decrease in both regional diversity and turnover in the long term. Based on our simulations we therefore suggest a continuing moderate intensity pasturing to maintain high levels of plant diversity in this system.

Aim Invasive alien species are a threat to biodiversity and can harm resident plants, animals, humans and infrastructure. To reduce deleterious effects, effective management planning for invasive plants is required. Currently, the effectiveness of management is primarily optimized locally through eradication of individual populations. By contrast, spatial prioritization of control activities at the landscape level has received less attention, despite its potential to improve management planning in complex landscapes, especially under budget constraints. Location North-eastern Switzerland, Europe. Methods We used a dynamic simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of spatially designed management planning for controlling the expansion of three invasive alien plants (IAPs; Heracleum mantegazzianum, Impatiens glandulifera and Reynoutria japonica) across a heterogeneous landscape in North-eastern Switzerland. The model predicted the spread of IAPs from their current distribution under constraints of 361 control options differing in local intensity, frequency, duration, area and spatial prioritization of eradication measures. Results Our results demonstrate that IAP-control actions under a restricted budget are more effective if control actions are spatially prioritized. Most effective spatial treatments generally prioritized small populations in the case of the annual species and large populations in the case of the perennial species. Further, applying intensive control at early stages generally increased effectiveness of control. Main conclusions For IAP-management planning, our findings suggest that control should be applied early when IAPs start spreading, to maximize success or minimize costs. Further, spatial prioritization schemes are particularly useful under limited financial means for IAP-management. Finally, our modelling approach may serve as a proof of concept to evaluate the effectiveness of control actions of various IAPs in complex landscapes.

Climate and land cover changes are important drivers of the plant species distributions and diversity patterns in mountainous regions. Although the need for a multifaceted view of diversity based on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic dimensions is now commonly recognized, there are no complete risk assessments concerning their expected changes. In this paper, we used a range of species distribution models in an ensemble‐forecasting framework together with regional climate and land cover projections by 2080 to analyze the potential threat for more than 2500 plant species at high resolution (2.5 × 2.5 km) in the French Alps. We also decomposed taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity facets into α and β components and analyzed their expected changes by 2080. Overall, plant species threats from climate and land cover changes in the French Alps were expected to vary depending on the species' preferred altitudinal vegetation zone, rarity, and conservation status. Indeed, rare species and species of conservation concern were the ones projected to experience less severe change, and also the ones being the most efficiently preserved by the current network of protected areas. Conversely, the three facets of plant diversity were also projected to experience drastic spatial re‐shuffling by 2080. In general, the mean α‐diversity of the three facets was projected to increase to the detriment of regional β‐diversity, although the latter was projected to remain high at the montane‐alpine transition zones. Our results show that, due to a high‐altitude distribution, the current protection network is efficient for rare species, and species predicted to migrate upward. Although our modeling framework may not capture all possible mechanisms of species range shifts, our work illustrates that a comprehensive risk assessment on an entire floristic region combined with functional and phylogenetic information can help delimitate future scenarios of biodiversity and better design its protection., Ecography, 37 (12), ISSN:0906-7590, ISSN:1600-0587

Aim Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales.

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous.

Remote sensing (RS) data may play an important role in the development of cost-effective means for modelling, mapping, planning and conserving biodiversity. Specifically, at the landscape scale, spatial models for the occurrences of species of conservation concern may be improved by the inclusion of RS-based predictors, to help managers to better meet different conservation challenges. In this study, we examine whether predicted distributions of 28 red-listed plant species in north-eastern Finland at the resolution of 25 ha are improved when advanced RS-variables are included as unclassified continuous predictor variables, in addition to more commonly used climate and topography variables. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we studied whether the spatial predictions of the distribution of red-listed plant species in boreal landscapes are improved by incorporating advanced RS (normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference soil index and Tasseled Cap transformations) information into species-environment models. Models were fitted using three different sets of explanatory variables: (1) climate-topography only; (2) remote sensing only; and (3) combined climate-topography and remote sensing variables, and evaluated by four-fold cross-validation with the area under the curve (AUC) statistics. The inclusion of RS variables improved both the explanatory power (on average 8.1 % improvement) and cross-validation performance (2.5 %) of the models. Hybrid models produced ecologically more reliable distribution maps than models using only climate-topography variables, especially for mire and shore species. In conclusion, Landsat ETM+ data integrated with climate and topographical information has the potential to improve biodiversity and rarity assessments in northern landscapes, especially in predictive studies covering extensive and remote areas.