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Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.

In the version of this Article originally published, the following sentence was missing from the Acknowledgements: “This work was supported by the Norwegian Research Council SnoEco project, grant number 230970”. This text has now been added.

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) allow observation and reporting of global biodiversity change, but a detailed framework for the empirical derivation of specific EBVs has yet to be developed. Here, we re-examine and refine the previous candidate set of species traits EBVs and show how traits related to phenology, morphology, reproduction, physiology and movement can contribute to EBV operationalization. The selected EBVs express intra-specific trait variation and allow monitoring of how organisms respond to global change. We evaluate the societal relevance of species traits EBVs for policy targets and demonstrate how open, interoperable and machine-readable trait data enable the building of EBV data products. We outline collection methods, meta(data) standardization, reproducible workflows, semantic tools and licence requirements for producing species traits EBVs. An operationalization is critical for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation and sustainable development goals and has wide implications for data-intensive science in ecology, biogeography, conservation and Earth observation., Sí

Motivation The BioTIME database contains raw data on species identities and abundances in ecological assemblages through time. These data enable users to calculate temporal trends in biodiversity within and amongst assemblages using a broad range of metrics. BioTIME is being developed as a community-led open-source database of biodiversity time series. Our goal is to accelerate and facilitate quantitative analysis of temporal patterns of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Main types of variables included The database contains 8,777,413 species abundance records, from assemblages consistently sampled for a minimum of 2 years, which need not necessarily be consecutive. In addition, the database contains metadata relating to sampling methodology and contextual information about each record. Spatial location and grain BioTIME is a global database of 547,161 unique sampling locations spanning the marine, freshwater and terrestrial realms. Grain size varies across datasets from 0.0000000158 km2 (158 cm2) to 100 km2 (1,000,000,000,000 cm2). Time period and grain BioTIME records span from 1874 to 2016. The minimal temporal grain across all datasets in BioTIME is a year. Major taxa and level of measurement BioTIME includes data from 44,440 species across the plant and animal kingdoms, ranging from plants, plankton and terrestrial invertebrates to small and large vertebrates. Software format .csv and .SQL., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27 (7), ISSN:1466-822X, ISSN:1466-8238

Global change drivers influence ecological processes at multiple scales and manifest across most of Earth as changes in biodiversity, biogeochemical cycles, infectious disease incidence, and ecohydrology. Small-scale investigations provide compelling evidence of specific effects of global change on local systems, but are of limited use in modeling complex ecological processes at continental-to-global scales. Long-term observations distributed across a diversity of habitat types are needed to improve the ability to forecast ecological change at large spatial and temporal scales. This special issue introduces the Terrestrial Observation System (TOS) of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), a long-term, continental-scale ecological research platform designed to deliver these large-scale datasets. The TOS measures biodiversity of key biota (soil microbes, insects, plants, small mammals), ecosystem productivity and biogeochemistry, infectious disease dynamics, phenology, and population dynamics. The articles in this special issue describe the scientific rationale for the sampling designs of the TOS, including an overview of protocols, locations, and frequencies of measurements. The science designs are a culmination of design requirements scoped by NEON and the National Science Foundation, best available practices put forth by the scientific community, input from technical working groups, and consideration of logistical and financial constraints by NEON staff. Within each site, measurements have been collocated to the extent possible to optimize linkages among different sampling elements. Integrated analyses of terrestrial observations with sensor-based, imagery, and remote-sensing data collected by other NEON subsystems can facilitate scaling of measured parameters to larger spatial and temporal scales. NEON is designed to collect data for 30 years, and make these data freely available on a public data portal (data.neonscience.org). Samples and specimens will be archived and available to the scientific community upon request. The open access approach to the Observatory will provide users with the resources necessary to map, understand, and predict the effects of global change drivers on ecological processes at a continental scale.

Two recent meta-analyses of local-scale biodiversity change over time, by the authors of the present paper, have been subject to a harsh critique. Here we use new data and analyses to respond to the main points of this critique. First, a central argument of the critique was that short-term time series lead to biased estimates of long-term biodiversity change. However, we show here that this conclusion was based entirely on two fundamental mistakes in the simulations used to support it. Second, we show that the critic's conclusion that there are negative relationships between temporal biodiversity change and study duration is entirely dependent on: (i) the unrealistic assumption that biodiversity change can be positive when study duration = 0; (ii) the use of only a subset of the available data; (iii) inclusion of a single outlier data point in a single study (out of 100 in this case); and/or (iv) a choice to use log ratios rather than slopes (when available) as the metric of temporal biodiversity change. In short, the evidence does not support the conclusion that studies of longer duration tend to find local diversity decline. Finally, the critique highlighted the obviously true fact that studies in the ecological literature represent a geographically biased sample of locations on Earth; this issue was noted in both original papers, and is relevant for all ecological data syntheses. This fact was used by the critics to cast doubt on our conclusion that, outside of areas converted to croplands or asphalt, the distribution of temporal biodiversity trends is centered on zero. As a scientific rule, future studies based on more or different data may cause us to modify our conclusion, but at present, alternative conclusions based on the geographic-bias argument rely entirely on speculation. In sum, the critique raises points of uncertainty typical of all ecological studies, but it falls far short of providing an evidence-based alternative interpretation for our results, which are now supported by syntheses of hundreds of individual data sets of temporal biodiversity change.

© 2016 Elmendorf et al. Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability, or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the observer-based plant phenology sampling conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-yr life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing, and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON's phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical, and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continental-scale inference about the status, trends, causes, and ecological consequences of phenological change.

35 Abstract Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

There is considerable debate among ecologists as to whether or not communities are saturated. In saturated communities, species richness should remain relatively constant over time, despite compositional turnover, because richness is negatively correlated with colonization and positively correlated with local extinction. Few studies have tested for saturation using temporal observational data as well as diversity-perturbation experiments. We analyzed 10 years of data for plant species richness at 71 sites on contrasting serpentine and non-serpentine soils within Californian (USA) grasslands. We also manipulated local richness and measured its effects on immigration and extinction. Consistent with saturation, we observed that richness was positively correlated with extinction rates and negatively correlated with colonization rates, and randomization tests confirmed that diversity fluctuated less than expected by chance. However, experimental species additions and removals did not affect extinction or colonization, suggesting that richness is not regulated by local species interactions. Instead, we propose three reasons why richness may fluctuate within narrow limits causing the appearance of saturation in temporal observational data sets: negatively autocorrelated patterns of biotic response to yearly conditions, differential affinities of particular species for local conditions, or stochastic abundance-dependent colonization and extinction rates. We illustrate the latter using a metacommunity model.

Nestedness occurs when species-poor assemblages contain a subset of the species that occur in more species-rich communities and is a commonly observed pattern in spatial data sets. Examination of nested distribution patterns across time rather than space are rarely conducted, even though they may have important implications for species coexistence. Nested temporal assemblages can occur when most species respond similarly to interannual variation in conditions. In contrast, assemblages might be non-nested when different sets of species occur in different years, either because of different resource requirements or as a result of competitive exclusion. Using eight years of plant occurrence data at 71 sites in California grasslands, we found strong signals of temporal nestedness with most species favored by similar conditions. High-quality years enabled the expansion of both grasses and forbs into locales where they were not found during poor-quality years. Native annual forb, exotic annual forb, and exotic annual grass species richness were all greatest in cool, wet years following hot, dry years. Together, these analyses support the hypothesis that, in the absence of community members that specialize on poor-quality years, interannual environmental variation can cause communities to form nested subsets across time much as they do across space.

We review and synthesize recent developments in the study of the invasion of communities in heterogeneous environments, considering both the invasibility of the community and impacts to the community. We consider both empirical and theoretical studies. For each of three major kinds of environmental heterogeneity (temporal, spatial and invader-driven), we find evidence that heterogeneity is critical to the invasibility of the community, the rate of spread, and the impacts on the community following invasion. We propose an environmental heterogeneity hypothesis of invasions, whereby heterogeneity both increases invasion success and reduces the impact to native species in the community, because it promotes invasion and coexistence mechanisms that are not possible in homogeneous environments. This hypothesis could help to explain recent findings that diversity is often increased as a result of biological invasions. It could also explain the scale dependence of the diversity-invasibility relationship. Despite the undoubted importance of heterogeneity to the invasion of communities, it has been studied remarkably little and new research is needed that simultaneously considers invasion, environmental heterogeneity and community characteristics. As a young field, there is an unrivalled opportunity for theoreticians and experimenters to work together to build a tractable theory informed by data.

We review and synthesize recent developments in the study of the spread of invasive species, emphasizing both empirical and theoretical approaches. Recent theoretical work has shown that invasive species spread is a much more complex process than the classical models suggested, as long range dispersal events can have a large influence on the rate of range expansion through time. Empirical work goes even further, emphasizing the role of spatial heterogeneity, temporal variability, other species, and evolution. As in some of the classic work on spread, the study of range expansion of invasive species provides unique opportunities to use differences between theory and data to determine the important underlying processes that control spread rates.

Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co-occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community-composition data. Composition-based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment-based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above-ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community-composition data were the best predictors of both the site-specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site-specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community-based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community-based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.

There is currently no consensus on how physical and biological factors affect competitive intensity. Tests of whether competitive intensity varies along axes of environmental change have commonly been conducted in systems with a single strong environmental gradient, such as productivity, a soil resource, or an environmental stress. Frequently, these same axes are associated with changes in species composition, yet few studies have asked whether shifts in the identity of competitors affect competitive intensity. We ask whether resources (nutrients, water), stressors (heavy metals, Ca:Mg ratio), productivity (aboveground biomass), or species identity (an ordination axis of plant community composition) were the best predictors of the intensity of competition in a heterogeneous grassland landscape that included multiple independent environmental gradients. The reproductive fitness of six annual plant species was measured in the presence and absence of competitors and used to calculate relative interaction intensity (RII). We found that RII was best predicted by community composition. Nutrient availability was also important, and a post hoc test showed that competitive intensity was best explained by the combined effects of community composition and nutrient availability. We argue that community composition may be the most effective metric for predicting competitive intensity in many ecosystems because it includes both the competitive effects of the local community and information about covarying environmental characteristics.

How introduced plants, which may be locally adapted to specific climatic conditions in their native range, cope with the new abiotic conditions that they encounter as exotics is not well understood. In particular, it is unclear what role plasticity versus adaptive evolution plays in enabling exotics to persist under new environmental circumstances in the introduced range. We determined the extent to which native and introduced populations of St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum) are genetically differentiated with respect to leaf-level morphological and physiological traits that allow plants to tolerate different climatic conditions. In common gardens in Washington and Spain, and in a greenhouse, we examined clinal variation in percent leaf nitrogen and carbon, leaf delta(13)C values (as an integrative measure of water use efficiency), specific leaf area (SLA), root and shoot biomass, root/shoot ratio, total leaf area, and leaf area ratio (LAR). As well, we determined whether native European H. perforatum experienced directional selection on leaf-level traits in the introduced range and we compared, across gardens, levels of plasticity in these traits. In field gardens in both Washington and Spain, native populations formed latitudinal clines in percent leaf N. In the greenhouse, native populations formed latitudinal clines in root and shoot biomass and total leaf area, and in the Washington garden only, native populations also exhibited latitudinal clines in percent leaf C and leaf delta(13)C. Traits that failed to show consistent latitudinal clines instead exhibited significant phenotypic plasticity. Introduced St. John's Wort populations also formed significant or marginally significant latitudinal clines in percent leaf N in Washington and Spain, percent leaf C in Washington, and in root biomass and total leaf area in the greenhouse. In the Washington common garden, there was strong directional selection among European populations for higher percent leaf N and leaf delta(13)C, but no selection on any other measured trait. The presence of convergent, genetically based latitudinal clines between native and introduced H. perforatum, together with previously published molecular data, suggest that native and exotic genotypes have independently adapted to a broad-scale variation in climate that varies with latitude.

Distinguishing the roles of propagule limitation and niche requirements in controlling plant species distributions is important for understanding community structure, invasion, and restoration. We used species distribution models based on plant and environmental survey data to assess the strength of species' affinities for particular environmental conditions. We hypothesized that species with statistically detectable environmental requirements were primarily niche-limited, while species with weak habitat affinities were primarily propagule-limited. We tested this hypothesis via a seeding experiment in which we compared species' reproductive fitness in occupied and unoccupied sites. Species that appeared to be niche-limited based on distribution models had lower fitness when planted in unoccupied sites, while species that models suggested were propagule-limited had equivalent fitness when planted in occupied and unoccupied sites. Our results demonstrate that within a single community, both species limited primarily by niche availability or primarily by propagule availability can be identified using observational data.

Exotic plants often face different conditions from those experienced where they are native. The general issue of how exotics respond to unfamiliar environments within their new range is not well understood. Phenotypic plasticity has historically been seen as the primary mechanism enabling exotics to colonize large, environmentally diverse areas. However, new work indicates that exotics can evolve quickly, suggesting that contemporary evolution may be more important in invasion ecology than previously appreciated. To determine the influence of contemporary evolution, phenotypic plasticity, and founder ef- fects in affecting phenotypic variation among introduced plants, we compared the size, fecundity, and leaf area of St. John's wort ( Hypericum perforatum) collected from native European and introduced western and central North American populations in common gardens in Washington, California, Spain, and Sweden. We also determined genetic rela- tionships among these plants by examining variation in amplified fragment length poly- morphism (AFLP) markers. There was substantial genetic variation among introduced populations and evidence for multiple introductions of H. perforatum into North America. Across common gardens in- troduced plants were neither universally larger nor more fecund than natives. However, within common gardens, both introduced and native populations exhibited significant lat- itudinally based clines in size and fecundity. Clines among introduced populations broadly converged with those among native populations. Introduced and native plants originating from northern latitudes generally outperformed those originating from southern latitudes when grown in northern latitude gardens of Washington and Sweden. Conversely, plants from southern latitudes performed best in southern gardens in Spain and California. Clinal patterns in leaf area, however, did not change between gardens; European and central North American plants from northern latitudes had larger leaves than plants from southern latitudes within these regions in both Washington and California, the two gardens where this trait was measured. Introduced plants did not always occur at similar latitudes as their most closely related native progenitor, indicating that pre-adaptation (i.e., climate matching) is unlikely to be the sole explanation for clinal patterns among introduced populations. Instead, results suggest that introduced plants are evolving adaptations to broad-scale environmental conditions in their introduced range.