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[Aim] Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain., [Location] Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. [Time period] From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. [Taxa] Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. [Methods] Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. [Results] Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. [Main conclusion] Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems., Fieldwork at Manú was conducted under the permits 041-2010-AG-DGFFSDGEFFS, 008-2011-AG-DGFFS-DGEFFS, 01-C/C-2010SERNANP-JPNM and 01-2011-SERNANP-PNM-JEF and supported by a scholarship from the German Academic Exchange Service to D.M.D. D.M.D. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant number 787638) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 173342), both awarded to C. H. Graham. W.D.K. acknowledges a Global Ecology grant from the University of Amsterdam Faculty Research Cluster. I.D. was funded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and is now supported by the Balearic Government. S.A.F. was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG; FR 3246/2-2) and the Leibniz Competition of the Leibniz Association (P52/2017).

Aim: How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait-based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species.Location: A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south-east Peru.Methods: We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait-based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes).Results: We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait-based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity were not related across species.Main conclusions: These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait-based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages.

Species interactions are influenced by the trait structure of local multi-trophic communities. However, it remains unclear whether mutualistic interactions in particular can drive trait patterns at the global scale, where climatic constraints and biogeographic processes gain importance. Here we evaluate global relationships between traits of frugivorous birds and palms (Arecaceae), and how these relationships are affected, directly or indirectly, by assemblage richness, climate and biogeographic history. We leverage a new and expanded gape size dataset for nearly all avian frugivores, and find a positive relationship between gape size and fruit size, that is, trait matching, which is influenced indirectly by palm richness and climate. We also uncover a latitudinal gradient in trait matching strength, which increases towards the tropics and varies among zoogeographic realms. Taken together, our results suggest trophic interactions have consistent influences on trait structure, but that abiotic, biogeographic and richness effects also play important, though sometimes indirect, roles in shaping the functional biogeography of mutualisms.

The question of whether migratory birds track a specific climatic niche by seasonal movements has important implications for understanding the evolution of migration, the factors affecting species' distributions, and the responses of migrants to climate change. Despite much research, previous studies of bird migration have produced mixed results. However, whether migrants track climate is only one half of the question, the other being why residents remain in the same geographic range year‐round. We provide a literature overview and test the hypothesis of seasonal niche tracking by evaluating seasonal climatic niche overlap across 437 migratory and resident species from eight clades of passerine birds. Seasonal climatic niches were based on a new global dataset of breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Overlap between climatic niches was quantified using ordination methods. We compared niche overlap of migratory species to two null expectations, (a) a scenario in which they do not migrate and (b) in comparison with the overlap experienced by closely related resident species, while controlling for breeding location and range size. Partly in accordance with the hypothesis of niche tracking, we found that the overlap of breeding versus nonbreeding climatic conditions in migratory species was greater than the overlap they would experience if they did not migrate. However, this was only true for migrants breeding outside the tropics and only relative to the overlap species would experience if they stayed in the breeding range year‐round. In contrast to the hypothesis of niche tracking, migratory species experienced lower seasonal climatic niche overlap than resident species, with significant differences between tropical and nontropical species. Our study suggests that in seasonal nontropical environments migration away from the breeding range may serve to avoid seasonally harsh climate; however, different factors may drive seasonal movements in the climatically more stable tropical regions., By examining seasonal niche overlap in migratory and resident bird species, we show that niche tracking varies depending on (a) the perspective in which the question was examined (i.e., from the perspective of the individual migrant or in comparison with resident species, (b) the direction of migration (i.e., whether the species is moving from the breeding or non‐breeding range), and (c) geographic location. Altogether, these results suggest that the drivers of migration vary depending on direction of migration as well as geographically, offering explanations for the mixed results from previous studies.

Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro‐Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René‐Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias (2022): AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds. Ecology Letters 25 (3): 581-597, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13898, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898

Although the links between species richness and diversification rates with clade age have been studied extensively, few studies have investigated the relationship between the rates of trait evolution and clade age. The rate of morphological trait evolution has repeatedly been shown to vary through time, as expected, for example, for adaptive radiations, but the strength and sources of this variation are not well understood. We compare the relationship between the rates of trait evolution and clade age across eight monophyletic clades of passerine birds by investigating ecomorphological traits, i.e. morphological traits that influence the ecology of the species directly. We study the ecomorphological divergence pattern using analyses of the disparity through time and determine the best-fitting model of evolution for each trait in each clade. We find no support for a consistent dependence of evolutionary rates on clade age across wing, tail, tarsus and beak shape in our eight clades and also show that early burst models of trait evolution are rarely the best-fitting models within these clades. These results suggest that key innovations or adaptive radiations might be less common evolutionary patterns and processes than generally thought or might depend on the taxonomic level investigated.

AIM: We advocate an interdisciplinary approach to biogeography, integrating geology and paleobiology to examine how biodiversity dynamics evolved as mountain ranges formed through (geological) time. LOCATION: Global; case study: Anatolia (Turkey). METHODS: We discuss the links between surface uplift and biodiversity dynamics and review recent developments for reconstructing the history of geography and biodiversity. To illustrate an integrative approach to biogeography, we present a case study of Neogene Anatolia. In particular, we reconstruct Anatolian paleogeography based on a synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative evidence, and review the fossil record of the regional flora and fauna, to identify changes in compositions that might be induced by surface uplift and associated environmental changes. RESULTS: The Central Anatolian Plateau and its mountainous margins display different histories of surface uplift during the late Miocene to Pliocene, which are detectable in the regional fossil record of large mammals. Overall changes in vegetation and climatic conditions for the whole region also align with the general time frame of surface uplift. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our discussion and case study highlight the value of an integrative biogeographic framework, by combining knowledge and techniques from geology and paleobiology to simultaneously consider the biotic and environmental dynamics in space and time. Neogene surface uplift in Anatolia has affected the regional biota, particularly the diversity of plants and large mammals, along with well‐known global and regional changes in climate and other environmental factors. To disentangle the effects of different, but most likely interactive environmental changes at various scales, we call for rigorous examination of the geological record in a biogeographic framework, using innovative methods to uncover how environmental and biotic processes have shaped mountain biodiversity.

Linking pattern to process across spatial and temporal scales has been a key goal of the field of biogeography. In January 2017, the 8th biennial conference of the International Biogeography Society sponsored a symposium on Building up biogeography—process to pattern that aimed to review progress towards this goal. Here we present a summary of the symposium, in which we identified promising areas of current research and suggested future research directions. We focus on (1) emerging types of data such as behavioural observations and ancient DNA, (2) how to better incorporate historical data (such as fossils) to move beyond what we term “footprint measures” of past dynamics and (3) the role that novel modelling approaches (e.g. maximum entropy theory of ecology and approximate Bayesian computation) and conceptual frameworks can play in the unification of disciplines. We suggest that the gaps separating pattern and process are shrinking, and that we can better bridge these aspects by considering the dimensions of space and time simultaneously.

Due to concerns about data quality, McKechnie, Coe, Gerson, and Wolf (2016) questioned the conclusions of our study (Khaliq et al., 2015) published in this journal. Here, we argue that most of the questioned data points are in fact useful for macrophysiological analyses, mostly because the vast majority of data are explicitly reported in the peer-reviewed physiological literature. Furthermore, we show that our conclusions remain largely robust irrespective of the data inclusion criterion. While we think that constructive debates about the adequate use of primary data in meta-studies as well as more transparency in data inclusion criteria are indeed useful, we also emphasize that data suitability should be evaluated in the light of the scope and scale of the study in which they are used. We hope that this discussion will not discourage the exchange between disciplines such as biogeography and physiology, as this integration is needed to address some of the most urgent scientific challenges.

Speciation is thought to be predominantly driven by the geographical separation of populations of the ancestral species. Yet, in the marine realm, there is substantial biological diversity despite a lack of pronounced geographical barriers. Here, we investigate this paradox by considering the biogeography of marine mammals: cetaceans (whales and dolphins) and pinnipeds (seals and sea lions). We test for associations between past evolutionary diversification and current geographical distributions, after accounting for the potential effects of current environmental conditions. In general, cetacean lineages are widely dispersed and show few signs of geographically driven speciation, albeit with some notable exceptions. Pinnipeds, by contrast, show a more mixed pattern, with true seals (phocids) tending to be dispersed, whereas eared seals (otariids) are more geographically clustered. Both cetaceans and pinnipeds show strong evidence for environmental clustering of their phylogenetic lineages in relation to factors such as sea temperature, the extent of sea ice, and nitrate concentrations. Overall, current marine mammal biogeography is not indicative of geographical speciation mechanisms, with environmental factors being more important determinants of current taxonomic distributions. However, geographical isolation appears to have played a role in some important taxa, with evidence from the fossil record showing good support for these cases.

Recent years have seen an exponential increase in the amount of data available in all sciences and application domains. Macroecology is part of this "Big Data" trend, with a strong rise in the volume of data that we are using for our research. Here, we summarize the most recent developments in macroecology in the age of Big Data that were presented at the 2018 annual meeting of the Specialist Group Macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (Gfo). Supported by computational advances, macroecology has been a rapidly developing field over recent years. Our meeting highlighted important avenues for further progress in terms of standardized data collection, data integration, method development and process integration. In particular, we focus on (a) important data gaps and new initiatives to close them, for example through space- and airborne sensors, (b) how various data sources and types can be integrated, (c) how uncertainty can be assessed in data-driven analyses and (d) how Big Data and machine learning approaches have opened new ways of investigating processes rather than simply describing patterns. We discuss how Big Data opens up new opportunities, but also poses new challenges to macroecological research. In the future, it will be essential to carefully assess data quality, the reproducibility of data compilation and analytical methods, and the communication of uncertainties. Major progress in the field will depend on the definition of data standards and workflows for macroecology, such that scientific quality and integrity are guaranteed, and collaboration in research projects is made easier.

Plant–animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.

Aim Despite the central role of species distributions in ecology and conservation, occurrence information remains geographically and taxonomically incomplete and biased. Efforts to address this problem, such as targeted data mobilization and advanced distribution modelling, all crucially rely on a solid understanding of the patterns and determinants of occurrence information. Numerous socio-economic and ecological drivers of uneven record collection and mobilization among species have been suggested, but the generality of their effects remains untested. Here, we provide the first global analysis of patterns and drivers of species-level variation in different metrics of occurrence information. Location Global, including separate analyses for six zoogeographical realms. Methods We evaluated three alternative metrics of occurrence information: (1) the record count per species, (2) the coverage of a range with records and (3) the geographical bias in how the records represent different range parts. To this end, we developed scale-independent metrics of range coverage and geographical record bias. We applied the three metrics to 2.8 million point-occurrence records and extent-of-occurrence range maps of 3625 mammalian species. We used multi-model inference to evaluate 13 putative drivers of species-level variation in data availability. Results All three metrics of occurrence information revealed severe species-level biases. These data limitations were mainly linked to range size and shape, and the within-range geography of socio-economic conditions. Species attributes related to detection and collection probabilities, such as body size or diurnality, were remarkably weak predictors of record count and range coverage. Main conclusions Species-level biases in mobilized occurrence information hamper its broader application in basic and applied biodiversity research. To successfully account for these limitations, the site-specific socio-economic constraints to record collection and mobilization, rather than species-specific constraints to detection, should be explicitly incorporated into ecological models. Furthermore, our results strongly suggest that range-restricted species should be prioritized in future data mobilization efforts.

International audience; The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely debated patterns in ecology and evolution, associated with hundreds of papers, dozens of hypotheses, and disagreements about its underlying processes. The lack of agreement stems from 1) the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, 2) the failure to mechanistically integrate all relevant ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and 3) the degree to which many empirical patterns are consistent with multiple LDG explanations. We show how mapping LDG hypotheses to a set of key ecological and evolutionary processes leads to a better understanding of the internal logic of those hypotheses. The codification of those processes within a mechanistic eco-evolutionary model is essential for contrasting support for hypotheses and for understanding the relative importance of the processes themselves.

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

Aim A third of all modern (after 1500) mammal extinctions (24/77) are Australian species. These extinctions have been restricted to southern Australia, predominantly in species of ‘critical weight range’ (35–5500 g) in drier climate zones. Introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) that prey on species in this range are often blamed. A new wave of declines is now affecting a globally significant proportion of marsupial species (19 species) in the fox-free northern tropics. We aim to test plausible causes of recent declines in range and determine if mechanisms differ between current tropical declines and past declines, which were in southern (nontropical) regions. Location Australian continent Methods We used multiple regression and random forest models to analyse traits that were associated with declines in species range, and compare variables associated with past extinctions in the southern zones with current tropical (northern) declines. Results The same two key variables, body mass and habitat structure, were associated with proportion-of-decline in range throughout the continent, but the form of relationships differs with latitude. In the south, medium-sized species in open habitats of lower rainfall were most likely to decline. In the tropics, small species that occupy open vegetation with moderate rainfall (savanna) are now experiencing the most severe declines. Throughout the continent, large-bodied species and those in structurally complex habitats (rainforest) are secure. Main conclusions Our results indicate that there is no mid-sized ‘critical weight range’ in the north. Because foxes are absent from the tropics, we suggest that northern Australian marsupial declines are associated with predation by feral cats (Felis catus) exacerbated by reduced ground level vegetation in non-rainforest habitats. To test this, we recommend experiments to remove cats from some locations where tropical mammals are threatened. Our results show that comparative analysis can help to diagnose potential causes of multi-species decline.

Aim Phylogenetic diversity can provide insight into how evolutionary processes may have shaped contemporary patterns of species richness. Here, we aim to test for the influence of phylogenetic history on global patterns of amphibian species richness, and to identify areas where macroevolutionary processes such as diversification and dispersal have left strong signatures on contemporary species richness. Location Global; equal-area grid cells of approximately 10,000 km2. Methods We generated an amphibian global supertree (6111 species) and repeated analyses with the largest available molecular phylogeny (2792 species). We combined each tree with global species distributions to map four indices of phylogenetic diversity. To investigate congruence between global spatial patterns of amphibian species richness and phylogenetic diversity, we selected Faith’s phylogenetic diversity (PD) index and the total taxonomic distinctness (TTD) index, because we found that the variance of the other two indices we examined (average taxonomic distinctness and mean root distance) strongly depended on species richness. We then identified regions with unusually high or low phylogenetic diversity given the underlying level of species richness by using the residuals from the global relationship of species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Results Phylogenetic diversity as measured by either Faith’s PD or TTD was strongly correlated with species richness globally, while the other two indices showed very different patterns. When either Faith’s PD or TTD was tested against species richness, residuals were strongly spatially structured. Areas with unusually low phylogenetic diversity for their associated species richness were mostly on islands, indicating large radiations of few lineages that have successfully colonized these archipelagos. Areas with unusually high phylogenetic diversity were located around biogeographic contact zones in Central America and southern China, and seem to have experienced high immigration or in situ diversification rates, combined with local persistence of old lineages. Main conclusions We show spatial structure in the residuals of the relationship between species richness and phylogenetic diversity, which together with the positive relationship itself indicates strong signatures of evolutionary history on contemporary global patterns of amphibian species richness. Areas with unusually low and high phylogenetic diversity for their associated richness demonstrate the importance of biogeographic barriers to dispersal, colonization and diversification processes.

Over the last two decades, macroecology – the analysis of large-scale, multi-species ecological patterns and processes – has established itself as a major line of biological research. Analyses of statistical links between environmental variables and biotic responses have long and successfully been employed as a main approach, but new developments are due to be utilized. Scanning the horizon of macroecology, we identifi ed four challenges that will probably play a major role in the future. We support our claims by examples and bibliographic analyses. 1) Integrating the past into macroecological analyses, e.g. by using paleontological or phylogenetic information or by applying methods from historical biogeography, will sharpen our understanding of the underlying reasons for contemporary patterns. 2) Explicit consideration of the local processes that lead to the observed larger-scale patterns is necessary to understand the fi ne-grain variability found in nature, and will enable better prediction of future patterns (e.g. under environmental change conditions). 3) Macroecology is dependent on large-scale, high quality data from a broad spectrum of taxa and regions. More available data sources need to be tapped and new, small-grain large-extent data need to be collected. 4) Although macroecology already lead to mainstreaming cuttingedge statistical analysis techniques, we fi nd that more sophisticated methods are needed to account for the biases inherent to sampling at large scale. Bayesian methods may be particularly suitable to address these challenges. To continue the vigorous development of the macroecological research agenda, it is time to address these challenges and to avoid becoming too complacent with current achievements.

Declining diversification rates over time are a well-established evolutionary pattern, often interpreted as indicating initial rapid radiation with filling of ecological niche space. Here, we test the hypothesis that island radiations may show constant net diversification rates over time, due to continued expansion into new niche space in highly dispersive taxa. We investigate diversification patterns of four passerine bird families originating from the Indo-Pacific archipelagos, and link these to biogeographic patterns to provide independent indications of niche filling. We find a declining diversification rate for only one family, the Paradisaeidae (41 species). These are almost completely restricted to New Guinea, and have on average smaller species ranges and higher levels of species richness within grid cells than the other three families. In contrast, we cannot reject constant diversification rates for Campephagidae (93 species), Oriolidae (35 species), and Pachycephalidae (53 species), groups that have independently colonized neighboring archipelagos and continents. We propose that Paradisaeidae have reached the diversity limit imposed by their restricted distribution, whereas high dispersal and colonization success across the geologically dynamic Indo-Pacific archipelagos may have sustained high speciation rates for the other three families. Alternatively, increasing extinction rates may have obscured declining speciation rates in those three phylogenies.

The recent commentary by Woinarski (2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/geb.12165) disagreed with our conclusions on the correlates of decline in the marsupials of tropical Australia (Fisher et al., 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 181–190). We compared traits of species that were associated with range decline in southern and northern Australia. We found that habitat structure, climate and body size were correlated with range decline. In the north, declines of marsupials were most severe in savanna with moderate rainfall. In the south, the ranges of species in open habitat with very low rainfall have declined most. Also, the association between range decline and body mass differed between north and south: this is the main concern of Woinarski, who further disagreed with our choice of the Tropic of Capricorn as a boundary between north and south, our omission of rodents, how to treat timing of extinctions, and our inference that cats are major drivers of decline. We address these concerns in this response.

The strength of phylogenetic signal in extinction risk can give insight into the mechanisms behind species' declines. Nevertheless, no existing measure of phylogenetic pattern in a binary trait, such as extinction-risk status, measures signal strength in a way that can be compared among data sets. We developed a new measure for phylogenetic signal of binary traits, D, which simulations show gives robust results with data sets of more than 50 species, even when the proportion of threatened species is low. We applied D to the red-list status of British birds and the world's mammals and found that the threat status for both groups exhibited moderately strong phylogenetic clumping. We also tested the hypothesis that the phylogenetic pattern of species threatened by harvesting will be more strongly clumped than for those species threatened by either habitat loss or invasive species because the life-history traits mediating the effects of harvesting show strong evolutionary pattern. For mammals, our results supported our hypothesis; there was significant but weaker phylogenetic signal in the risk caused by the other two drivers (habitat loss and invasive species). We conclude that D is likely to be a useful measure of the strength of phylogenetic pattern in many binary traits.

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body-mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.

Tropical mountains are hotspots of biodiversity, but the factors that generate this high diversity remain poorly understood. To identify possible mechanisms that influence avian species assemblages in the tropical Andes, we studied the functional and phylogenetic diversity and the structure of species assemblages of an avian feeding guild. We analysed how functional and phylogenetic diversity, structure and composition of frugivorous bird assemblages changed along a 3300 m elevational transect from the lowlands to the tree line with a novel combination of functional and phylogenetic approaches, and used null models to infer possible drivers of the observed patterns. Species richness, functional richness and phylogenetic diversity decreased almost monotonically with increasing elevation, but assemblage structure and composition changed abruptly in the Andean foothills at around 1200 m. In the lowland assemblages, species were functionally and phylogenetically less similar than expected from null models, whereas species in the highland assemblages were functionally and phylogenetically more similar than expected by chance, suggesting an abrupt reduction in the number of functionally and phylogenetically distinct species in the transition from lowlands to the highlands. Nevertheless, the functional and phylogenetic evenness of the assemblages, i.e. the regularity of the spacing of species in functional trait space and phylogeny, remained constant along the gradient, which suggests that the mechanisms that influence the co-occurrence of species within the assemblages are similar in lowlands and highlands. The observed differences between lowland and highland assemblages imply sharp distributional limits for frugivorous bird species in the Andean foothills, probably caused by environmental factors other than climate, e.g. changes in habitat types or topography, or independent species radiations in lowlands and highlands. These strong distributional limits may hinder uphill range shifts of frugivorous bird species, and the plant species they disperse, in the tropical Andes as a response to climate change.

Modularity is a recurrent and important property of bipartite ecological networks. Although well-resolved ecological networks describe interaction frequencies between species pairs, modularity of bipartite networks has been analysed only on the basis of binary presence-absence data. We employ a new algorithm to detect modularity in weighted bipartite networks in a global analysis of avian seed-dispersal networks. We define roles of species, such as connector values, for weighted and binary networks and associate them with avian species traits and phylogeny. The weighted, but not binary, analysis identified a positive relationship between climatic seasonality and modularity, whereas past climate stability and phylogenetic signal were only weakly related to modularity. Connector values were associated with foraging behaviour and were phylogenetically conserved. The weighted modularity analysis demonstrates the dominating impact of ecological factors on the structure of seed-dispersal networks, but also underscores the relevance of evolutionary history in shaping species roles in ecological communities.

Recent biogeographical studies have shown positive correlations between plant/vertebrate species richness and human population presence. The same pattern has been reported for Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) (EPT) amongst European countries. This is surprising as EPT are bio-indicators of stream pollution and most local studies report higher species richness of these macro-invertebrates where human influences on water quality are lower. Using a newly collated taxonomic dataset, we studied whether the species richness of EPT is related to human population size at finer resolutions (Italy's regions, provinces and 10×10 km2 UTM cells) controlling for sampling effort, variations in area and for spatial autocorrelation. At all study grains, observed EPT species richness was strongly correlated to the number of records available for the same taxon. At the regional level, the observed number of Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera species significantly increased with increasing human population size. At the provincial level, observed species richness decreased significantly with increasing human population size for Ephemeroptera and did not vary significantly for Plecoptera and Trichoptera. At the finest grain scale, there were significant negative correlations of observed Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera species richness with human population size, although the proportion of variance explained was very low. These results were broadly confirmed when analyzing the estimated number of species using the formula of Chao2. Our analysis confirms the scale-dependence of the human population–biodiversity correlation. Over broad scales more populated regions tend to have more species than less populated ones. Restricting the study grain, the positive EPT species–people relationship disappears and turns into a negative one. Our findings suggest a challenge also for the conservation of regional EPT diversity.

Analyses of life-history, ecological, and geographic trait differences among species, their causes, correlates, and likely consequences are increasingly important for understanding and conserving biodiversity in the face of rapid global change. Assembling multispecies trait data from diverse literature sources into a single comprehensive data set requires detailed consideration of methods to reliably compile data for particular species, and to derive single estimates from multiple sources based on different techniques and definitions. Here we describe PanTHERIA, a species-level data set compiled for analysis of life history, ecology, and geography of all known extant and recently extinct mammals. PanTHERIA is derived from a database capable of holding multiple geo-referenced values for variables within a species containing 100 740 lines of biological data for extant and recently extinct mammalian species, collected over a period of three years by 20 individuals. PanTHERIA also includes spatial databases o...