Search

Snakebite causes more than 1.8 million envenoming cases annually and is a major cause of death in the tropics especially for poor farmers. While both social and ecological factors influence the chance encounter between snakes and people, the spatio-temporal processes underlying snakebites remain poorly explored. Previous research has focused on statistical correlates between snakebites and ecological, sociological, or environmental factors, but the human and snake behavioral patterns that drive the spatio-temporal process have not yet been integrated into a single model. Here we use a bottom-up simulation approach using agent-based modelling (ABM) parameterized with datasets from Sri Lanka, a snakebite hotspot, to characterise the mechanisms of snakebite and identify risk factors. Spatio-temporal dynamics of snakebite risks are examined through the model incorporating six snake species and three farmer types (rice, tea, and rubber). We find that snakebites are mainly climatically driven, but the risks also depend on farmer types due to working schedules as well as species present in landscapes. Snake species are differentiated by both distribution and by habitat preference, and farmers are differentiated by working patterns that are climatically driven, and the combination of these factors leads to unique encounter rates for different landcover types as well as locations. Validation using epidemiological studies demonstrated that our model can explain observed patterns, including temporal patterns of snakebite incidence, and relative contribution of bites by each snake species. Our predictions can be used to generate hypotheses and inform future studies and decision makers. Additionally, our model is transferable to other locations with high snakebite burden as well., Author summary Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease affecting millions, and a major cause of death of agricultural workers in the tropics. In this research, the authors have developed a simulation model that includes data for agricultural activity across the days and seasons, as well as snake behavioral patterns, and the times and locations humans and snakes meet. Using this model, they predicted observed seasonal snakebite patterns in Sri Lanka, and they successfully showed how these patterns vary between different agricultural activities, including seasonal rice cultivation, and rubber and tea harvests. The findings arising from this study demonstrate that different combinations of human and snake activity, including species and farming practice differences, are likely to generate differences in snakebite patterns across locations. This model could be applied to analyze and predict snakebite in tropical regions around the globe to help mitigate the problem.

The tropical ascidian Herdmania momus (Savigny 1816) has been rapidly expanding its distribution in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. To examine the role of temperature resilience on its invasion success, we conducted monthly field surveys for two years at Achziv (Israel) Marine Protected Area, and examined the survival of adult individuals from native (Red Sea) and invasive (Mediterranean) populations under different temperature treatments. In addition, temperature effects on fertilization and larval development were examined in controlled laboratory conditions. Results indicate that temperature has a significant effect on H. momus from its early life stages through adulthood. Field surveys revealed a significant decline in H. momus abundance in the Mediterranean with the decrease in seawater temperature. Low temperature inhibited development of early life stages, and individuals from both populations demonstrated low survivability under low temperature treatment. All the above may be derived from the tropical origin of H. momus, and may further limit its dispersal into colder areas. However, adult individuals from the invasive population demonstrated significantly higher survivability to the high temperature treatment in comparison to the native population from the Red Sea. Larvae development, metamorphosis and settlement were enhanced and with higher rates of success under the high temperature conditions. The high-temperature adaptation of the Mediterranean population of H. momus from fertilization to adulthood may thus contribute to its expanding distribution in the Eastern Mediterranean.