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Copyright of ifo Dresden Berichtet: Ueber Konjunktur, Struktur, Wirtschaftspolitik is the property of ifo Institute for Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We apply a soft computing method to generate country-specific economic sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates for 19 European economies. First, genetic programming is used to evolve business and consumer economic expectations to derive sentiment indicators for each country. To assess the performance of the proposed indicators, we first design a nowcasting experiment in which we recursively generate estimates of GDP at the end of each quarter, using the latest business and consumer survey data available. Second, we design a forecasting exercise in which we iteratively re-compute the sentiment indicators in each out-of-sample period. When evaluating the accuracy of the predictions obtained for different forecast horizons, we find that the evolved sentiment indicators outperform the time-series models used as a benchmark. These results show the potential of the proposed approach for prediction purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For policymakers who intend to make decisions on the policy to stimulate economic growth and enhance job opportunities, business demography statistics serve as important data sources for promoting entrepreneurship, which is a key for the policy. Business demography, which usually consists of annual demographic information such as the number of births, deaths, and survivals of businesses, can be produced from a business register in many countries. In Japan, however, it is difficult to produce business demography directly from the Japanese business resister called Establishment Frame Database because the major data source for the database is the Economic Census, conducted twice every five years. Alternatively, business demography can be estimated using the data of the Economic Census. However, it has been pointed out that short-lived births of businesses are hardly grasped by the estimation using the data of statistical surveys such as the Economic Census at intervals of more than one year. This paper introduces a stochastic model to cope with the above issue and proposes a calculation formula to estimate the number of short-lived births of businesses as well as other demographic indicators of business demography. Then the paper is followed by a numerical example, which proves to overcome the shortcomings of previous methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In uncertain times, it is crucial to have some statistics, which can help with the prediction of future development in the national economy. Business Tendency Survey is one of the most essential and favourite tools for predictions in economic statistics. The article aims to determine which confidence indicators help predict the Czech economic development and which base of the confidence indicators is the best for making predictions. Using the Granger causality test, we prove the Business Tendency Survey indicators are beneficial for predictions. The economic sentiment indicator and the confidence indicator for industry predict the gross value added better than the gross domestic product. The long-term average is a slightly better base than the base indices. The predictions are most accurate in the horizon of two quarters. Individual composite indicator for the industry well predicts both the industrial production index (for the next month) and the gross value added in the industry (for the next quarter). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study's main objective was to examine the progress of provinces towards UHC using several tracer indicators (six for health service coverage and two for financial protection) from 2001 to 2014 and to assess inequities within provinces due to place of residence and economic status. Methods: For elaborate tracking, inequities were assessed for each indicator based on average annual rates of change and percentage changes in the gap between sub-population groups. For policy makers, spider radar graphs were generated to demonstrate UHC status in 2014, and a composite UHC index was created to show trends from 2001-14. Four Household Integrated Economic Survey data sets (2001-02, 2004-05, 2010-11, 2013-14), each with a sample size of about 15,000 households, were used for the analysis. Results: Overall, all four provinces made progress in their UHC index values over the study period. Coverage for most of treatment indicators remained below 70% and inequities existed among sub-population groups. Coverage of financial protection indicators remained above 90% for all the provinces across study duration and no substantial differences were found between and within provinces. Conclusion: Simultaneous monitoring of both dimensions of UHC enabled the authors to comment on the holistic picture of UHC status and data blind spots, and to avoid inappropriate interpretations about a single dimension. Higher level of financial protection with limited health services coverage was most likely due to non-utilization of health services and/or unmet health needs. The findings will likely serve as a baseline for tracking progress towards UHC at the sub-national level in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries and three country aggregates separately. We come up with three major results. First, for more than three-fourths of the countries or country-aggregates in our sample, a model containing one of the major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES indicators are either the economic climate or the expectations on future economic development for the next six months. And third, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase in forecast accuracy in more than 50% of the countries. It seems therefore reasonable to incorporate economic signals from the domestic economy's main trading partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we use agents' expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in twenty-six European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and Baltic and Scandinavian countries). We apply a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation to transform survey variables in economic growth rates. In a first step, we design five independent experiments to derive a formula using survey variables that best replicates the evolution of economic growth in each region by means of genetic programming, limiting the integration schemes to the main mathematical operations. We then rank survey variables according to their performance in tracking economic activity, finding that agents' "perception about the overall economy compared to last year" is the survey variable with the highest predictive power. In a second step, we assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the evolved indicators. Although we obtain different results across regions, Austria, Slovakia, Portugal, Lithuania and Sweden are the economies of each region that show the best forecast results. We also find evidence that the forecasting performance of the survey-based indicators improves during periods of higher growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an empirical analysis of expected stock price movements. The author extends pervious research by examining common stock price forecasts made by survey respondents in an attempt to gain a better understanding of the characteristics these forecasts are made up of. The author believes this will provide insight into the criteria used in the management of portfolios and in various investment decisions. The author is interested in observing how accurately these forecasts match rational expectations and how they are related to forecasts for inflation and real growth.

Using a representative survey of the German population, this article studies self-reported individual consumption responses to a recent exogenous payroll tax reduction. About 55% of the respondents report that they spend the extra money, indicating considerable potential for tax changes to affect consumption and economic activity. Our analysis of the socio-demographic and economic covariates of consumption responses suggests, among other effects, that interest rates are related to consumption responses to tax changes, and that households with higher income have a higher propensity to consume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting data revisions to U.S. GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently predict the revision implicit in the second estimate of GDP growth, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the data revision implied by the release of the third estimate. We use forecasting models to measure the impact of surprises in GDP announcements on equity markets, and to analyze the effects of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns. We show that the publication of better than expected third-release GDP figures provides a boost to equity markets, and if future upward revisions are expected, the effects are enhanced during recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trust in banks is essential to financial system effectiveness. This study examines the determinants of trust in banks in China. Using the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, which included information on trust in banks from the survey in China in 2012, we perform ordered logit estimations to investigate the potential influence of a large set of individual and provincial indicators on trust in banks. We observe the influence of certain sociodemographic indicators. Membership in the Communist Party and living in a rural area are negatively associated with trust in banks. Age and satisfaction with financial situation contribute to higher trust in banks, while being married and having a higher level of education tend to lower trust in banks. Access to information regardless of the type of media disseminating the information (newspapers, television, internet) seem to have no impact on trust in banks. Economic values influence trust in banks. In particular, individuals who favor inequality as an incentive for individual effort or support an expanded government ownership role in the economy tend to trust banks more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on the influence of the institutions determinate of competitiveness in emerging and EU countries. Based on survey of literature including Scott's (2001) idea of three institutional pillars: regulatory, normative and culturalcognitive pillar, we constructed framework of institutional competitiveness index. Our framework also offers a modified methodology for the estimation of a theoretically grounded and empirically validated measure of the institutional competitiveness which is expected to contribute to the development of literature for emerging countries. This paper captures interrelated drivers that collectively represent each of these pillars and estimate this framework using multiple data sets covering 22 emerging economies and 14 EU countries over the period 2006-2014. The findings indicate and confirm a positive and separate influence between the institutional mechanism and competitiveness as both are very much interrelated and they depict the general level of efficiency of a particular country. While the institutional mechanism in emerging nations is developing, results for the EU countries present positive and significant relationship between rule of law and national competitiveness. These insights might be useful in the formulation of improved national economic policies and institutional reforms towards attainment of national competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents three survey-based uncertainty indicators, which constitute further developments of similar, already existing measures. Their main merits are that they can be computed on the basis of publicly available time series, rather than hard-to-acquire micro data, and are derived from the assessments of actors in a multitude of economic sectors, rather than just a single one, which makes them particularly suitable to assess more comprehensively the impact of uncertainty on economic activity. Empirical analysis shows the indicators to be counter-cyclical with major uncertainty peaks coinciding with low growth. Moreover, shocks to our uncertainty measures are found to be a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations, leading to a temporary reduction in real activity without any signs of overshooting. A comparison with other commonly used uncertainty proxies shows that the new indicators account for a much larger fraction of real GDP variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measures such as the Consumer Price Index are important economic indicators setting out price changes in the Irish economy over time. Such measures, however, are subject to various types of measurement bias. The latter can include Commodity Substitution Bias whereby the weights assigned to each item in a representative basket of goods and services cease to fully reflect consumer expenditure patterns over time, and particularly during a period of economic upheaval. This, in turn, can lead to the overstatement (or understatement) of inflation. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) now updates the relevant weights every year, thereby reducing the impact of this bias. In this article, we have endeavoured to estimate the size of the bias in the period leading up to the introduction of the new methodology in 2012. The results presented here indicate that the rate of inflation was slightly understated. The degree of this measurement bias was not significantly higher than that identified in other countries in which this phenomenon has been examined, albeit that in the latter countries an upward bias (or overstatement) was found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Campus sustainability is an effort taken by universities almost throughout the world to ensure mutual prosperity in the future. Similarly, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) has initiated efforts to achieve a sustainable campus at the university level. This article aims to develop a framework for a manual on campus sustainability assessment suitable for UKM. This framework will be developed based on several well-known sustainability frameworks such as the Campus Sustainability Assessment Framework (CSAF), Sustainability Tracking Assessment and Rating System (STARS), Green Matrix UPSI, and Sustainable UKM. These frameworks include various types of assessment elements, its sub-elements, and indicators. Meanwhile, based on the results of previous studies, the researchers have developed a more concise framework for assessing the elements of sustainability in UKM in terms of economy, design, and social. This framework includes three main elements and seven sub-elements of Economy (energy management, water management, waste management), Design (infrastructure and facilities, transportation), and Social (landscape and recreation, and safety). This framework can be used to assess whether the facilities or services provided on the UKM campus ensures sustainability. Furthermore, a survey was conducted to test the knowledge and practice of campus sustainability as a part of the formation of this assessment manual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research indicates that deploying appropriate information technology (IT) competency in a manner that fits the supply chain integration (SCI) of a firm induces superior firm performance; however, our understanding of how to empirically conceptualize and assess the performance effect of the fit remains limited. Drawing upon resource orchestration theory and the literature on fit assessment methodologies, our study employs both a contingency and a configuration perspective to conceptualize and operationalize “fit.” The results of a survey of 196 firms in China provide the first empirical evidence for the existence and nature of interrelationships between multiple components of SCI and IT competency and their effects on firm performance. In particular, fit as “moderation” approach indicates that IT competency could strengthen the relationship between SCI and both operational and financial performance. Fit as “profile deviation” approach further reveals that the more similar the IT competency configurations are to those of the top performers in the high-level SCI group, the higher their operational and financial performance are. However, in the medium- and low-level SCI groups, the SCI-IT competency fit is significantly positively associated with financial performance and insignificantly associated with operational performance. The theoretical contributions and managerial implications of the study are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We survey the issues involved in comparing wealth distributions and measuring wealth inequality with illustrations from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have been indicated to be highly context-dependent, and to be sensitive to the measurement technique employed. We present data collected in controlled experiments with 2,939 subjects in 30 countries measuring risk and uncertainty attitudes through incentivized measures as well as survey questions. Our data show clearly that measures correlate not only within decision contexts or measurement methods, but also across contexts and methods. This points to the existence of one underlying "risk preference", which influences attitudes independently of the measurement method or choice domain. We furthermore find that answers to a general and a financial survey question correlate with incentivized lottery choices in most countries. Incentivized and survey measures also correlate significantly between countries. This opens the possibility to conduct cultural comparisons on risk attitudes using survey instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of competition on supply chain integration (SCI). Design/methodology/approach – Survey data from 617 manufacturers in China were used in this study. Taxonomy with cluster analysis was used to investigate the patterns of competition, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to investigate the influence of these competition patterns on SCI. Findings – Seven competition patterns composed of local competition, international competition, and operational challenges were identified from the survey data. The ANOVA results showed that companies with different patterns achieved significantly different levels of SCI, indicating that higher levels of local competition, international competition, and operational challenges drove higher levels of SCI. Post hoc analyses revealed that international competition had stronger effects than local competition on SCI. Research limitations/implications – The data were collected from a single country, which may limit the generalization of the findings. The data were cross-sectional and thus lacked causal explanatory power. Practical implications – The findings provide suggestions for managers to use different configurations of SCI to adapt to different patterns of competition. Originality/value – This study makes three main contributions to the literature. First, it extends the research on the relationship between competition and cooperation to the supply chain management area. Second, it extends the concept of competition by incorporating not only competitive intensity, but also competitive scope and competitive capability. Third, the use of a configuration approach rather than a dimensional approach to investigate the effects of competition on SCI solves many methodological problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last $$40$$ years, a large number of studies have analyzed car holding and use behavior. Most of these ignore the dynamics of household and driver needs that very likely drive such decisions. Our work builds up on a disaggregate (compensatory) approach using revealed choices to address these dynamics. We develop a dynamic discrete/continuous choice model of car holding duration for forward-looking agents. We estimate this model using French panel survey data. Our findings indicate that a household's time preference is a crucial element in car use and holding decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyse the Lithuanian postal service market which has become open for competition since 2013, after the Law Amending the Postal Law coming into force. The main objective of the article is to identify characteristics of the Lithuanian postal service market and to formulate market penetration proposals for new entrants. The main methods employed in the article are a comparative analysis of statistical data and a sociological survey. The article starts with the literature review on the topic, the identification of major postal service providers in Lithuania, and the analysis of their key performance indicators. This section is followed by a sociological survey and an analysis of customer comments found in the online Public Register of Legal Entities aimed at identifying the shortages of the Lithuanian postal service market and fomulating proposals how to improve the quality of postal services in Lithuania. Findings of the survey suggest that the concentration of efforts on service provision to legal entities, flexibility of service prices and service quality higher than that of competitors constitute the key factors for market penetration and gaining competitive advantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aimed to analyse the main characteristics of Romania's rural labour force by concentrating on dynamics and structure of economically active population in the period 2007-2012. We analysed the main labour market indicators provided by statistical surveys like active population, unemployment, activity rate, unemployment rate, etc. by age, educational level and group of occupations. Our analysis points out the current dimensions of labour force from rural areas, and more importantly the main problems on this market (lack of jobs, the increase of unemployment, the aging process of population (the continuous reduction of young population) and the low level of education) and also the real necessity of SME development support and training opportunities for economically active rural population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We develop a framework and indicators for measuring innovation in the public sector. [•] Public sector innovation is compared with innovation in the private sector. [•] Key differences are in objectives, autonomy and interfaces with other actors. [•] Public sector is an active developer of innovations, though many are incremental. [•] We identify key challenges in conceptualising innovation and survey methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Galician Journal of Economics / Revista Galega de Economía is the property of Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Servicio de Publicaciones and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of ifo Schnelldienst is the property of ifo Institute for Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We provide the first large-scale survey-based evidence on the impact of the global food crisis of 2007–08 using an indicator of self-assessed food security from the Gallup World Poll. For the sampled countries as a whole, this subjective indicator of food security remained the same or even improved, seemingly owing to a combination of strong economic growth and limited food inflation in some of the most populous countries, particularly India. However, these favorable global trends mask divergent trends at the national and regional levels, with a number of countries reporting substantial deterioration in food security. The impacts of the global crisis therefore appear to be highly context specific. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Copyright of ifo Schnelldienst is the property of ifo Institute for Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article focuses on two approaches including proper data selection and research methodology that can be used for eliminating errors in the forecasting of data generating process (DGP) changes in Russia. It states that data selections should be based on survey-based time series which reveal the conceptions and expectations of economic indicators. It also focuses on the Autoregressive Exogenous Input (ARX) model.

This study introduces a monthly coincident indicator for consumption in Germany based on Google Trends data on web search activity. In real-time nowcasting experiments the indicator outperforms common survey-based indicators in predicting consumption. Unlike those indicators, it provides predictive information beyond that already captured in other macroeconomic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the forecasting of desynchronized global growth which confirms its continuation since 2011. It is mentioned the global business is dominated by transitional adjustments caused by transitory economic policies. There are various major findings of the World Economic Survey which include evaluation of the current economic situation below satisfactory level by worldwide and North American executives and expectations of survey participants on average worldwide inflation.

The present paper, restricting its attention to the empirical economics literature, attempts to gauge current thinking on the question of whether FDI causes economic growth. Since technological spillovers are a key determinant of long run economic growth, the survey begins with the firm level evidence on technological spillovers of FDI on domestic firms. The macro FDI and growth literature is covered next. Finally, we examine the effect of FDI on income inequality and/or employment, skills, or jobs. In many contexts policies that exacerbate income inequality come under special scrutiny even if they are welfare enhancing. Our major finding is that FDI is generally associated with positive technological spillovers, economic growth, and increasing income inequality. For all three of these results, however, there are significant counter examples in the literature which must be respected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern definition of unemployment emerged in the late 1930s from research conducted at the Works Progress Administration and the Census Bureau. According to this definition, people who are not working but actively searching for work are counted as unemployed. This concept was first used in the Enumerative Check Census, a follow-up sample for the 1937 Census of Unemployment, and continued with the Monthly Report on the Labor Force survey, begun in December 1939 by the Works Progress Administration. A similar definition is now used to measure unemployment around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the properties of qualitative inflation expectations collected from economic experts for Germany. It describes their characteristics relating to rationality and Granger causality. An out-of-sample simulation study investigates whether this indicator is suitable for inflation forecasting. Results from other standard forecasting models are considered and compared with models employing survey measures. We find that a model using survey expectations outperforms most of the competing models. Moreover, we find some evidence that the survey indicator already contains information from other model types (e.g. Phillips curve models). However, the forecast quality may be further improved by completely taking into account information from some financial indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses the predictive ability of the survey-based business performance indices produced by the Australian Industry Group with respect to 'official' Australian economic data. The index related to manufacturing sector performance is a useful predictor of official economic data for the manufacturing sector. This usefulness is both in terms of providing early information on current period economic conditions and providing information regarding future period economic conditions. The results for the services and construction sector indices are mixed, with limited evidence of Granger causality from the services sector index to the corresponding official economic data for the services sector. There is some value in the construction sector index as both a leading indicator as well as a timelier contemporary indicator of construction sector economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]