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The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts’ opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The main aims of this paper are to analyse the monetary value of informal care time using different techniques and to identify significant variables associated with the number of caregiving hours. Data and methods: A multicentre study in two Spanish regions in adult caregivers was conducted. A total sample of 604 people was available. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify the variables associated with the number of hours of caregiving time. In the monetary valuation of informal care provided, three approaches were used: replacement cost method, opportunity cost and contingent valuation (willingness to pay and willingness to accept). Results: The main determinants of the amount of time of informal care provided were age, gender, the level of care receiver´s dependence and the professional care services received (at home and out of home). The value estimated for informal care time ranges from EUROS 80,247 (replacement cost method) to EUROS 14,325 (willingness to pay), with intermediate values of EUROS 27,140 and EUROS 29,343 (opportunity cost and willingness to accept, respectively). Several sensitivity analyses were performed over the base cases, confirming the previous results. Conclusions: Time of informal care represents a great social value, regardless of the applied technique. However, the results can differ strongly depending on the technique chosen. Therefore, the choice of technique of valuation is not neutral. Among the determinants of informal care time, the professional care received at home has a complementary character to informal care, while the formal care outside the home has a substitute character. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale and objectives: Economic theory classifies an intervention as socially beneficial if the total Willingness to Pay (WTP) of those who gain exceeds the total Willingness to accept (WTA) of those who are harmed. This paper examines the differences in health system users’ valuation of a health care service in primary care setting based on the WTP and WTA perspectives, discussing the impact of personal and service variables, including risk attitudes, on these disparities. Method: Six hundred and sixty two subjects who asked for care in health centres in the Region of Madrid (Spain) were interviewed, using the contingent valuation method to estimate WTP and WTA. Patient sociodemographic characteristics, health needs, satisfaction with the service and risk attitude and behaviour under risk (measured by self-reported scales and lottery games respectively) were collected. Generalised Linear Models were used to estimate the association between the explanatory variables and the WTA/WTP ratio. Results: We obtained the WTA/WTP ratio for 570 subjects (mean 1.66 CI 95%: 1.53–1.79; median 1, interquartile range 1–2). People with higher education or in high social groups expressed WTA values closest to WTP. The opposite occurred in patients with the greatest health needs or who were born abroad. Self-reported expression of risk aversion appeared also related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. Satisfaction with the service evaluated was the most influential factor in the WTA/WTP ratio. Conclusion: Health need, difficulty in obtaining substitutes and satisfaction with the service could serve for profiling people averse to loss for health care services in primary care setting. Self-reported expression of risk aversion could also be related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. This would mean that these characteristics should be taken into account both in the design and implementation of new healthcare interventions, as in the making decision for disinvestment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]