Search

Challenges caused by global climate change arise several environmental, social, and energy production issues. These problems firstly concern interest of resource extraction countries, triggering inter-fuel competition in both directions supply and consumption of energy resources. Moreover, significantly increased green agenda leads countries to foster shifting to green energy production and discovering factors of most influential on the acceleration of RES consumption. The paper focuses on the impact assessment of economic, environmental and institutional factors of the country development on the future consumption of renewable energy sources (RES). To achieve the purpose of the study a panel data analysis method was used. The analysis was conducted for 41 European countries for 1995–2018, with countries being divided into members of Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)/non-OECD and Extractive/non-Extractive. Four hypotheses were tested under the research: (1) Developing countries are characterized by the negative impact of CO2 emissions on RES consumption, while developed countries — the opposite; (2) Non-RES consumption reflects inter-fuel competition, expressed in a negative relationship with the RES; (3) Prices increase for non-RES contributes to growth of RES consumption; (4) Institutional factors reflect the level of ”market freedom and mobility” of the country and contribute to the development of RES. The authors confirmed all hypothesizes and showed that economic, particularly GDP, and institutional factors had the greatest impact on all countries’ RES consumption, while the environmental aspect is weakly significant for non-extractive countries. Consumption of fossil resources had a negative impact and confirmed the presence of inter-fuel competition.

The objective of this study is to examine the long run and short run relationship between oil prices and stock market liquidity in Pakistan stock exchange. Design/Methodology/Approach: The sample spans 10 years from 2010 to 2019. We use auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) to examine long-term and short-term relationships between oil prices, exchange rate, stock market index, market volatility and inflation and stock market liquidity. We use normality checks, serial correlation tests, heteroscedasticity tests, and CUSM models to assess model stability. Findings: Result shows that there exist a long-term negative association between exchange rate and inflation, but a positive relationship is revealed between oil prices, stock returns, and market volatility. These conclusions hold for three sectors i.e. automobile, cement and sugar. Implications/Originality/Value: This study extends the existing debate on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market liquidity to the emerging equity market. For this, it uses three proxies for stock market liquidity: Amihud liquidity, average trading volume, and trading volume average.

We examine the oil-stock nexus in 24 countries amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and test for threshold effects on oil prices using Hansen (1999) panel dynamic threshold model and recent extensions of Kremer et al. (2013) and Seo and Shin (2016). We find evidence of nonlinearities and threshold effects in oil prices. As an addition to literature, our estimated model shows that stock market prices react in a regime-style manner, when the joint effects of oil prices, exchange rate changes, number of reported cases, and the number of death due to COVID-19 pandemic are analyzed. This is in support of the theoretical model of investor sentiment by Barberis et al. (1998). Therefore, we are of the opinion that policymakers, governments, and investors in their business decision-making process should put into consideration and also observe changes in the global reported cases alongside the number of deaths and how oil prices are evolving, as the global economy is further affected by the COVID-19 pandemic shock.

The effect of changes in crude oil prices on inflation and how this effect trends over time is one of the questions examined in the literature. In the studies carried out in the sample of Turkey, an answer to this question has been tried to be sought and the importance of examining the issue in Turkey has been mentioned. Because Turkey is an energy-dependent country in terms of both producers and consumers, in this respect, it is interesting to see how the changes in energy prices will affect the price level in Turkey. In this direction, the aim of this study is to examine the non-linear effects of oil prices on inflation in Turkey between 2003 and 2022 with monthly data. For this, NARDL method, one of the non-linear models that consider the positive and negative separations of the variables, was used. According to the findings, both increases and decreases in oil prices and increases in exchange rates cause consumer prices to rise., Ham petrol fiyatlarındaki değişikliklerin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi ve bu etkinin zamanla ne yönde eğilim gösterdiği literatürde irdelenen sorulardan biridir. Şimdiye kadar Türkiye örnekleminde yapılan çalışmalarda da bu soruya cevap aranmaya çalışılmış ve Türkiye özelinde konunun irdelenmesinin önemine değinilmiştir. Çünkü Türkiye, gerek üretici gerekse tüketici açısından enerji bağımlısı bir ülkedir. Bu yönüyle enerji fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişikliklerin Türkiye’deki fiyat seviyesi üzerinde nasıl bir etki edeceği merak uyandırmıştır. Bu doğrultuda yapılan bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de 2003 ile 2022 yılları arası aylık verilerle petrol fiyatlarının enflasyon üzerindeki doğrusal olmayan etkilerini incelemektir. Bunun için değişkenlerin pozitif ve negatif ayrışımlarını dikkate alan doğrusal olmayan modellerden NARDL yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre petrol fiyatlarındaki hem artış hem de azalışlar; döviz kurlarındaki artışlar tüketici fiyatlarının yükselmesine neden olmaktadır.

In this paper, the behavior of precious metals and oil is examined using a fractionally integrated and cointegrated modeling approach. Using daily data from January 2015 to December 2020 and using both endogenous and exogenous structural breaks, we examine the behavior of the related series before and during the COVID-19 pandemic with the aim of investigating whether the degree of persistence has changed since the onset of COVID-19. We found that precious metals and oil exhibit long memory and are mean reverting regardless of the sample considered as the fractional parameter d 0.5. Both cointegration techniques alongside the parameter stability tests lend support to the existence of a persistence and stable long-run relationships among the series irrespective of the sample period considered. Attendant policy recommendations for investors and policymakers are recommended.

The tourism industry carries great significance in the economic development of any country. It has been observed that the COVID-19 crisis has affected global travel and tourism more than any other sector globally as well as in China. The travel restrictions, home isolation, and quarantine orders have given massive damage to China’s once thriving tourism industry. Despite this phenomenal impact, the existing literature has a dearth of empirical studies related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. This study attempts to reflect a thorough picture of the current scenario and the crisis effects under different intensities reflected through quantiles of Covid-19 related deaths. The study has utilized the QARDL model and the Wald test on the daily time series data of COVID-19 intensity, the real effective exchange rate, oil prices, and the tourism development index from January 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The outcomes indicate that COVID-19 related deaths have a negative, but significant impact on China’s tourism in the long run and short run. The oil prices also show a negative influence on tourism in the long run, but there is no significant impact of the oil prices on tourism in the short run. At the same time, the increase in the real effective exchange rates tends to support tourism in the long run, but does not influence tourism development in the short run.

The study investigates the short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of the global economic policy uncertainty, real oil prices, and country-specific geopolitical risk on real stock returns in Turkey by using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework over the pre-COVID-19 period of 1997:01-2019:12 and full-sample period of 1997:01-2020:12. The empirical findings indicate the following results. Firstly, global economic policy uncertainty leads to depress real stock returns for both sample periods. Secondly, negative real oil price changes, in the long run, have relatively greater effects compare to positive changes on real stock returns, whereas positive oil price changes affect negatively in the short-run for the full-sample period. Thirdly, the country-specific geopolitical risk exerts positive effects on the real stock returns in the long run for both periods. The overall results suggest that the Turkish real stock returns react more to the bad news caused by the global factors than the domestic one.

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.]. We assess the forecast accuracy of STIP model using out-of-sample forecast exercise and show that our model outperforms both aggregated and disaggregated AR(1) benchmarks. Across inflation components, the forecast accuracy gains are 20-30% forecasting 3 months ahead and 15-55% forecasting 12 months ahead.

The study aims to examine the nature of the relationship and the effect of oil price fluctuations on stock indices in the financial markets of exporting and importing countries. For achieving that, the price of Brent crude oil was chosen as an index from the stock markets in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq as oilexporting countries. While the market index was chosen from the markets of New York, Shanghai and Nikkei as an oil importer. The study came out with a set of conclusions and recommendations. The most important is that the degree of response of stock indices to fluctuations in oil prices was greater in exporting countries than in importing countries.

Research background: The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship among oil prices and the Algerian Dinar exchange rate over the period January 1995–February 2020 in Algeria as one of the most important oil-exporting countries and one of the OPEC members. Purpose: This study investigated the co-integration relationship between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria by testing the long-run relationship between the two variables and their positive and negative shocks. Research methodology: the study applied both the traditional co-integration analysis using Engle-Granger, Phillips-Ouliaris and Johansen-Juselius tests and the hidden co-integration presented by Granger and Yoon (2002). Results: The results revealed that there is no evidence of a co-movement and linkage between oil prices and exchange rate in Algeria over the period of study neither with the original series nor between the cumulative components whatever the dependent variable. Novelty: This paper fills in the missing link between the Algerian Dinar exchange rate and oil prices especially with the absence of the hidden co-integration analysis in the case of Algeria and most of the developing countries. To deal with the oil shocks according to Apergis and Miller (2007) and Narayan and Gupta (2015) studies where when they suggested distinguishing between the negative and positive oil price shocks because the asymmetric effect on the macroeconomic variables.

This study investigates the relationship between daily returns of oil and ten European industrial equity indices for the period 2008–2017 using the spatial econometric technique. In our settings, the historical co-movements of sectoral returns are incorporated while modelling the contemporaneous relationships between oil and European sectoral returns. After controlling for regional and global equity risk factors, we find that oil returns pose a significantly positive effect on sectoral indices’ returns in line with previous studies. However, the magnitude of economic impact found mostly by earlier studies was largely underestimated without considering the co-movements of sectoral indices. The use of spatial econometric technique allowed us to disaggregate the total impact into a direct (due to oil price) and an indirect (due to spillover effect because of intra-industry co-movements) effect of oil price changes. Our results indicate that the direct economic impact of changes in oil prices on industrial returns is almost 31% more than what has been found by earlier studies. The negative spatial dependence among sectoral indices provides a useful tool to identify the source of the indirect impact of oil on overall equity prices in Europe that in turn explains the overestimation of direct impact by 31%.

This study examines the oil price effect on Turkish stock market as an emerging country on firm level data. After controlling short term interest rate, nominal exchange rate and crude oil price, we find that firms behave differently to a change in oil prices. The findings include these: i) variations in oil prices do not significantly affect Turkish firm returns. Out of 153, only 38 firms are affected significantly by oil price after controlling exchange rate and interest rate; ii) oil prices influence stock returns of Turkish firms, suggesting that under reaction and gradual information diffusion hypotheses may hold. iii) small and middle-sized firms are more affected negatively from oil price changes, where large-sized firms affected more positively. The empirical findings of this study have potential implications and offer significant insights for both practitioners and policy makers.

Climate change mitigation has led to a recent question regarding many policymakers and sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) for Vision 2030. In 2019 and 2020, COVID-19 mitigation was the only issue the world raised questions about; for example, the KSA and the rest of the world are working diligently to meet COVID-19 mitigation targets. To assess policy supervision in terms of the ability to achieve COVID-19 targets, this survey examines the operators necessary to achieve the SDGs in regard to improving COVID-19 mitigation and increasing economic growth. In particular, we examine COVID-19 mitigation under the setting of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (N-shaped EKC) in the KSA. To identify the COVID-19 shock in the KSA, the effects of oil price and oil rent on CO2 emissions are examined. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bound testing approach indicate that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the inverted N-shaped EKC hypothesis is validated in the long term. Empirically, we find that oil price strengthens the relationship of level, quadratic and cubic of economic growth and environmental quality while oil rent weakens this relationship. Additionally, the long-term incidences of positive shocks on oil price in the presence of COVID-19 outbreak are not similar to the negative shock to CO2 emissions, implying the existence of asymmetric impacts on carbon dioxide emissions in long-term forms. Our research implies that an oil price shock could be judicious for macro guidance of the economy in the KSA. Our findings are helpful for policymakers and investors in terms of their settlement planning because they can be used to evaluate prospective courses of economic profitability under the COVID-19 shock.

This work aims to study the time-frequency relationship between the recent COVID-19 pandemic and instabilities in oil price and the stock market, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty in the economic policy in the USA, Europe, and China. The coherence wavelet method and the wavelet-based Granger causality tests are applied to the data (31st December 2019 to 1st August 2020) based on daily COVID-19 observations, oil prices, US-EPU, the US geopolitical risk index, and the US stock price index. The short- and long-term COVID-19 consequences are depicted differently and may initially be viewed as an economic crisis. The results illustrate the reduced industrial productivity, which intensifies with the increase in the pandemic's severeness (i.e., a 10.57% decrease in the productivity index with a 1% increase in the pandemic severeness). Similarly, indices for oil demand, stock market, GDP growth, and electricity demand decrease significantly with an increase in the pandemic severeness index (i.e., a 1% increase in the pandemic severeness results in a 0.9%, 0.67%, 1.12%, and 0.65% decrease, respectively). However, the oil market shows low co-movement with the stock exchange, exchange rate, and gold markets. Therefore, investors and the government are recommended to invest in the oil market to generate revenue during the sanctions period.

In this study, the long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate in Turkey for the period 2005:01-2019:08 is analysed with Fourier approach. According to the Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is no long-term relationship between the variables while according to the hidden Fourier ADL cointegration test, there is a long-term relationship between the negative components of variables. Long-term coefficients are estimated by the FMOLS method. The analysis show that unlike most of the articles in the literature there is a negative impact of oil prices on unemployment rate in Turkey. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2005:01-2019:08 dönemi için petrol fiyatları ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Fourier yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmamakta, Fourier ADL saklı eşbütünleşme testine göre ise değişkenlerin negatif bileşenleri arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayıları FMOLS yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda literatürde yer alan çoğu çalışmanın aksine, Türkiye’de petrol fiyatlarının işsizlik oranını ters yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings – The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications – Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value – This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers. Proposito – El proposito del estudio es conocer el impacto de los precios del oro y del petroleo en la bolsa de valores. Diseno/metodologia/enfoque – Este estudio utiliza los datos sobre los precios del oro, la bolsa de valores y los precios del petroleo para el periodo 1991-2016. Se aplico estadistica descriptiva, prueba de Dickey-Fuller aumentada, correlacion y prueba de retardo distribuida autorregresiva. Hallazgos – Los resultados del analisis de datos mostraron que los precios del oro y el petroleo tienen un impacto significativo en el mercado de valores. Limitaciones de la investigacion/implicancias – Siguiendo la evidencia empirica de este estudio, los autores recomiendan que los inversores inviertan en oro. La razon principal es que el aumento de la inflacion reduce el valor real del dinero y la gente busca invertir en vias alternativas como el oro para preservar el valor de sus activos y obtener beneficios adicionales. Esto sugiere que la inversion en oro se puede utilizar como una herramienta para reducir la presion inflacionaria a un nivel sostenible. Este estudio se restringio al uso de datos de muestra pequena debido a la disponibilidad de datos de 1991 a 2017, y no pudo usar pruebas de raiz unitaria de ruptura estructural con dos enfoques de cointegracion, ya que estas pruebas requieren un conjunto de datos de alta frecuencia. Originality/value – Este estudio proporciona informacion a los inversores que quieren beneficiarse de la diversificacion invirtiendo en oro, petroleo y mercado de valores. En la era actual, los precios del oro y del petroleo fluctuan dia a dia, y los inversores piensan que los rendimientos de las acciones pueden verse afectados por estas fluctuaciones. Este estudio es unico porque se centra en problemas actuales y toma los datos de esta investigacion para ayudar a las instituciones de inversion o administradores de cartera.

Purpose: This paper examines whether the economies of oil-exporting countries respond to oil shocks differently, depending on the country's political economy factors, such as regional economic alliance, stage of economic development, and the exchange rate regime, using a structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The sample countries covered in this study include all the major twelve oil exporters: the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar) and the non-GCC oil exporters (Iran, Nigeria, Norway, Canada, Russia and Venezuela) for the 1970-2013 period. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve the above, this paper employs a four-variable restricted structural Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with oil prices (exogenous) and a set of endogenous variables, including GDP, M2, and Inflation for the 1970-2013 period, with a co-integrating relationship that varies from 1 to 2. Both Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Tests have been applied. To eliminate the effects of a contemporaneous correlation of the residuals with the regressors, the errors are orthogonalized by a Choleski decomposition. Finding: The political economy characteristics of countries explain why the economies of oil exporters either with fixed or managed floating exchange rates behave differently than those economies with floating exchange rates. Money is endogenous in oil-exporting countries with fixed or managed floating exchange rates, but not in oil-exporting countries with floating exchange rates. The evidence found in this paper suggests that the fixed exchange rate regime of the GCC countries is not effective in tamping down inflationary pressures, as planned. There is a strong positive effect of oil price shocks on the foreign exchange reserves of the GCC countries, whereas the effect of oil price shocks on foreign exchange reserves has been rather non-existent for the non-GCC oil exporters with floating exchange rates. Research limitations/implications: The data span is restricted by data availability, the study could ensure for more robustness and better confidence with quarterly data, but most of the variables for countries are reported annually, except for Canada, Russia, and Norway. Originality/value: This paper separates oil exporters into two distinct categories, the GCC countries and the non-GCC oil exporters. To my knowledge, this has not been done before in the academic literature. Unlike the GCC countries, the non-GCC oil exporters do not participate in a common political alliance or an economic union. Their economies are diversified and less dependent on oil exports. This study shows that the political economy characteristics play a large role in explaining why the economies of oil exporters with either fixed or managed floating exchange rates behave differently than the oil exporters with floating exchange rates.

The study aims to examine the causality between industrial production index and crude oil price for Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan by using Frequency Domain Causality Analysis. For this purpose, the monthly data of the industrial production index and Brent oil price data over the period 1993-2019 are used. The Frequency Domain Causality Analysis suggests that the uni-directional causality relationship runs from oil prices to industrial production index is valid in the medium run for Russia and Azerbaijan and in the short run for Kazakhstan. However, there is no uni-directional causality linkage between oil prices and industrial production index in the long run for any of the countries. We hope to contribute to the literature by using frequency-domain causality test which examines the interrelation of crude oil prices on industrial production with the periodicity in these countries. The finding of this study is expected to serve as a tool for industrial production policy.

The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to analyze the impact of investment policy decision on the firm value given the uncertain oil and gas prices and (ii) to propose policies that enhance firm value. The study develops a system dynamics model that integrates the financial and operational activities of oil firms. The simulation results reveal that, when oil and gas prices increase, positive future expectations lead to increased investments and reduced cash flows. Greater volume of investments over the firm's current investment policy decreases its future cash flows and the total firm value over the first 20 years of the simulation period; it increases thereafter. To support higher investments, the firm would issue a higher number of shares, and consequently the market price per share would be lower, and vice versa. The simulation results suggest a relatively lower volume of investments to increase the market price per share. publishedVersion

This study analyses the impacts of unprecedented falling oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 on the stock markets of GCC countries – countries considered as natural resources-based rentier economies. To this end, the research uses daily data for 295 companies under the categories of services, industrial, and financial sectors in GCC countries from January 1, 2020, to February 23, 2021. The analysis was conducted over two phases. The first phase extended from January 1, 2020, to July 30, 2020, while the second phase extended from August 01, 2020, to February 23, 2021. The research utilised 18 random effect models in each phase to capture the impact of the oil price crisis and COVID-19 outbreak on each economic sector in each of the GCC countries. This study’s findings reveal that the decline in oil prices and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic were strong in the first phase, while this impact diminished in most economic sectors in the Gulf countries in the second phase. However, the GCC countries have not been impacted equally by the crisis of falling oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak. The results show that the hardest-hit countries are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, respectively, while the least impacted countries are Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Furthermore, the sector-wise analysis results reveal that the industrial sector in Saudi Arabia is the sector most affected by the oil price crisis, and the financial sector in Saudi Arabia is the sector most impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak in the GCC countries.

This study attempts to empirically estimate the interdependence between COVID-19, tourism market, oil prices, and sustainable climate in United States. In doing so, we employ an advanced Morlet’s wavelet approach, namely, Wavelet coherence transform (WCT), Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence and found a strong co-movement between variables, which is varied across the time scales, indicating the initial, peak, and after peak effect of COVID-19 on tourism market, oil prices, and carbon emissions using daily data from 6 March 2020 to 6 August 2020. The visuals of WCT exhibit a cyclic (anti-cyclic) relationship between tourism and oil prices, suggesting a strong positive (negative) co-movement in the shorter and longer (medium) period. Tourism and carbon emissions possess a strong positive co-movement across all periods except in the medium run; however, the intensity of this movement is higher in the very short-run compared to medium and longer-run. The results reveal an anti-cyclic association between COVID-19 and tourism, and COVID-19 is leading tourism with strong negative co-movements. Finally, the results describe that carbon emissions and COVID-19 are anti-cyclical and display a positive causality in the shorter run. These results offer valuable guidelines for all stakeholders. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

COVID-19 epidemic has brought uncertainty to each sector of the global economy, including the financial sector. The widely spread disease has a drastic effect, which massively created health and financial crisis and virtually pushed the economy to the brink of recession. The study focused on the financial development of China during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzed the long-term and short-term impact of COVID-19, oil prices, gold prices, and global economic policy uncertainty on the financial development of the country. The QARDL model, Wald test, and Granger causality tests are employed to assess the daily data of variables from January 1, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The study's empirical results revealed that an increase in the number of COVID-19 registered patients has an unprecedented negative effect on financial development, whereas the oil prices co-moved with the financial performance. On the other hand, gold prices and global economic policy uncertainty are negatively correlated with financial development. This study offers various policy recommendations to help the investors, government, and decision-makers to make better decisions for the improvement of the financial development of China.

Denna uppsats undersöker effekten av oljepriser på inflation i Tyskland under 2000-talet. Under denna tid har många viktiga makroekonomiska händelser ägt rum och oljepriser har fluktuerat. Tyskland har valts att undersökas eftersom det är en stor europeisk ekonomi som är beroende av energiimport. En multipel linjär regression baserad på den nya Keynesianska Phillipskurvan har konstruerats. Resultaten visar att oljepriser har en statistiskt signifikant effekt på inflation; 1% ökning av oljepriser resulterar i en inflationsökning om 0,011%. Resultatet visar en positiv relation som ligger i linje med det teoretiska ramverket, men effekten är relativt liten vilket tyder på att oljepriser har en begränsad effekt på inflation under 2000-talet jämfört med tidigare tidsperiod. This essay examines the effects of oil prices on inflation in Germany during the twenty-first century. At this time, many important macroeconomic events have occurred and oil prices have fluctuated. Germany was chosen as it is a strong European economy dependent on energy imports. A multiple regression analysis based on the theory of the new Keynesian Phillips curve has been constructed. The results show that oil prices have a statistically significant effect on inflation; a 1% increase in oil prices results in an inflation increase of 0,011%. The result of this positive relationship is in accordance with the theory, but the effect is relatively small thus suggesting that oil prices are not the primary cause of inflation. Oil prices seem to have a more limited effect on inflation in the twenty-first century compared to earlier time periods.

Increasing financialization of energy and commodity markets offer a variety of tradeoff for the investors and consumers. On the one hand, this increased financialization of the two markets helps investors design a well-diversified investment portfolio with assets from different asset categories. However, at the same time, this increases the connectedness between the two markets significantly, which may have strong implications for investors and consumers. In this paper, we examine the long-term connectedness and causality between Crude oil and agricultural commodity prices. The advantage of long-term time series is that we may be able to uncover the demand and supply shocks that originated in both markets during the tranquil period and the shocks during the volatile period such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employ the full bootstrap sample and rolling window causality tests primarily. Our results are surprisingly different from most of the studies that have held oil prices responsible for causing changes in agricultural commodity prices (ACP). In contrast, our results confirm the presence of bidirectional causality and show that Oil prices are as much affected by the ACP as vice versa. This significant reverse causality running from ACP to Oil prices can open up a completely new interpretation domain. Finally, it is surprisingly interesting that both ACP and Oil prices remain immune to the shocks that originated in both markets during the entire time period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although the relationship between the global oil and stock markets has been given extensive critical assessment in the literature, this study gives a re-examination of this nexus for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries with certain innovative contributions. We employ both the Symmetric ARDL by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Nonlinear ARDL by Shin et al. (2014) and we also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. Using a weekly dataset from 1992-2016, we observe that most of the GCC stock markets respond asymmetrically to oil price. The need to account for structural breaks is also undeniably seen as the break dates are largely significant. We discovered some breaks which coincidentally correspond to the series of OPEC cuts of 1999, Asian demand soars of 2005 and global financial crisis of 2008, among others. Our robustness check suggests that global economic activity and geopolitical risks are very sensitive to oil price specification, however in a linear fashion which may change conclusions regarding the effect of oil price shocks on stock returns. In all, the findings of this study, especially the large asymmetric responses of the stock markets to oil price, have serious policy implications for the government of each country and potential investors because of their oil-dependent posture.

There is an ongoing debate on how oil prices affect the stock prices of clean energy companies. We contribute to this debate by questioning the possibility of asymmetric linkages between oil prices, interest rates, and the stock prices of clean energy and technology firms. Using a recently developed approach (nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) model), we document that ignoring the presence of nonlinearities leads to misleading results. The analyses reveal significant asymmetric effects among the variables of interest. Our findings suggest that the impacts of positive and negative changes in the oil prices, interest rates and technology stock prices on clean energy stock prices substantially vary in the short-and long-run. More specifically, our results point out that the increased investments in clean energy stocks appear to be due to speculative attacks along with an increase in oil prices in the short-run. But, in the long-run, the increased oil price has a negative impact on clean energy stock prices and this impact is asymmetric. Last but not least, the results also emphasize the importance of business cycle fluctuations for the clean energy stock performance in the long-run. The implications of this paper are noteworthy for energy economists, policymakers, and investors in the energy and financial markets. JEL classification: C58, G10, Q42, Q43, Keywords: Asymmetries, Clean energy, Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL), Oil prices, Stock prices

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for 2000–2017. It is shown that the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out predominantly through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the oil prices pass-through, limiting the negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger pass-through, helping to reduce inflation.

The significance of the natural geographical characteristics and ecological formation of the Coastline Mediterranean Countries (CMC) suggests a further examination of the dynamics of the renewable energy consumption (renewables) within the aforesaid region. As such, the dynamic impact of carbon emissions and the housing construction policy vis-à-vis dwellings, building and residential developments on the renewable energy consumption is investigated among Spain, France, Slovenia, Greece, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag methods of the pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed-effect estimators are adopted for the empirical investigation over the periods 1999-2014 with real income and tourism employed as an additional variable. Using the PMG estimators, empirical results show that positive and statistically significant relationship exists among the variables in the long run. A 1% increase in housing construction policy, real income tourism and carbon emissions leads to (0.955), (8.622), (0.007) and (6.805) increase in renewable energy growth, while deviations in the short run significantly adjust to long-run equilibrium under an unforeseen disturbance at a moderate annual speed of about 73% annually. The inference from the short-run estimated coefficients indicates that housing construction policy is not a driver of renewables in Israel. From a policy standpoint, proposed strategic housing development policy and environmental pollution mitigation policy by policymakers should be void of causing a disservice toward the enrichment of renewable energy generation domestically in the panel countries.

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the unanticipated changes in oil prices immediately led to a decline in the level of their foreign exchange reserves. The trend is also decreasing. The model predicts a continued degradation of these reserves if oil prices remain low. In these conditions, the CEMAC could experience a currency crisis if economic policies implemented in this region do not lead to a return of economic growth.

Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), this paper shows that real depreciation of the euro raises real GDP in Kosovo and that a lower real lending rate in the euro area, a higher real GDP in Germany, a lower real oil price, or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. More government deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.