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The article is devoted to the analysis of forecasts of the world energy development made recently (from September 2020 to May 2021) by the world’s leading analytical centers, taking into account “the new reality” – the coronavirus pandemic. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the world economy and energy consumption and the estimates of its consequences on long-term global economic growth made in various forecasts and prognostic studies are considered. It is shown that the priority of most of the prognostic estimates of the world consumption of primary energy resources made by the world’s leading analytical centers in recent years is a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by energy and stabilization of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent negative climate changes on our planet. A conditional classification of scenarios for the prospective development of global energy is given, depending on the ideology that is embedded in them, an analysis of the fulfilled forecasts is given. It is concluded that Russian research structures need to develop their own similar forecasts. © 2021 А.М. Mastepanov.

The concept of low-carbon development involves several interrelated tasks: improving energy efficiency, using renewable energy, protecting and improving the quality of greenhouse gas sinks, limiting or reducing emissions, developing greenhouse gas absorption technologies, eliminating subsidies, and other methods of promoting environmentally destructive activities. The implementation of the principle of low-carbon development is in line with the gradual transformation of the world energy—the transition from fossil fuels as the main source of primary energy resources to other sources of energy. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that the most important element of development is the possibility of consumption of energy resources and, accordingly, the possibility of their production in the context of economic changes. The methods of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, the method of criteria estimates were used in the article. Authors defined that there is a global positive dynamics in the period 2008–2017 in the field of alternative energy and stimulating its development through state regulation of the industry and improving the investment and innovation climate of the states as a whole, therefore, we can conclude that in the near future trends will be maintained. The mathematical model of the stability of the territory was presented in the form of a system of three differential equations. The authors clarified the model of sustainability of the territory as a social structure. Based on the developed mathematical model of the behavior of the control object, it is possible to predict the state of stable equilibrium of the energy security territory. The novelty of the article is that the issue of the sustainable development structure of energy security is raised for the first time.

The article highlights the main trends in the development of world energy. The method of forecasting energy consumption is presented, taking into account the level and dynamics of energy consumption in general, as well as the use of individual energy resources with differentiation by countries and regions. In the present study, when forming the energy forecast, the key indicators determining the global energy demand are the dynamics of the energy intensity of GDP and per capita energy consumption. It is shown that in the total volume of world consumption of primary energy resources, oil will continue to occupy a leading position. Among fossil fuels, the demand for natural gas will increase most intensively. The share of coal in the structure of consumption of primary energy carriers will decrease, which is associated with the replacement of coal with natural gas in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The greatest growth rates of demand among non-fossil fuels will be observed in renewable energy sources. The main growth in atomic energy consumption will be in the developing countries of the Asia-Pacific Region. Keywords: Energy consumption, Europe, Forecast, Renewable energy, Trends, World

Access to abundant and affordable primary energy resources has been recognised as an essential factor for the prosperity of human societies. To measure their quality, understood as the ease with which the energy system can extract and transform them into a form useful to society, the concept of energy return on investment (EROI) is widely used. Yet, so far, very few estimates of this indicator exist at a society level. This paper first aims at providing an estimate of the societal EROI using a simple macroeconomic model with two sectors, an energy sector and a final sector aggregating the rest of the economy. For the year 2018 and at a worldwide level, we obtain a gross EROI of 9.4, and a net EROI of 8.5. The estimation of the net energy ratio (NER), a second indicator more comprehensive than the EROI, allows assessing the energy embodied in the intermediate and capital consumptions of the entire economy. The NER calculation reveals that only 39% of the final energy produced contributes to total consumption (private and public) and economic growth, the remaining 61% being consumed within the economy. These intermediate energy consumptions (direct and indirect) are unevenly distributed between the two sectors: 11% of the production goes to the energy sector, while no less than 50% is consumed within the final sector. These figures proved to be very insensitive to variations in the value of estimated model parameters.

The need for an environmentally sustainable economy is indisputable but our understanding of the energy-economy interactions (dynamics) that will occur during the transition is insufficient. This raises fascinating questions on the future of economic growth, energy technology mix and energy availability. The crucial interactions between energy and economy systems can be usefully described in terms of the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) metric (the energy cost of primary energy production). Multiple authors have used this metric to explore the behaviour of the economy over the transition to lower carbon energy sources. The following text is a review of energy-economy models that incorporate the EROEI metric. In particular, the EROEI-dynamics literature is found to describe a common set of dynamics associated with the transition to lower EROEI primary energy resources. These include: the rising resource-cost of primary energy production, the short-term misallocation of resources, the short-term overproduction of energy and the potential decline in economic stability. The literature can be divided into groups of related models. Following the review, a number of key areas for additional work are identified and discussed.

In this study, first the relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and economic growth is analyzed using three different approaches to eliminate mis-specified statistical models and biased outcomes. Then, the relationship between primary energy resources, which are import-based and used to produce electricity, and current account balance (CAB) is investigated. The rationale behind analyzing the relationship between import-based energy consumption and CAB lies on understanding the potential positive and negative effects of energy consumption on economy. Statistical results show that (1) unidirectional causality running from EC to economic growth has been found for the case of Turkey and (2) there is a bidirectional causality running from import-based EC to current account deficit.

The modern civilization represents a compromise of three "E"-economy, environment and energy. Given that, the economical and environmental components are a direct function of the consumption of primary energy resources (PER), this factor is crucial. The emergence of a new scientific discipline - an economic energetics, the publication of a number of specialized magazines, several thousands related publications - gives evidence of the importance of energetic ensuring of economic growth of national economies and sustainable human development. In this context a relatively small number of themed publications in the former Soviet Union and the countries of the former communist block seem paradoxical. Besides that, the scientific researches of Ukrainian and Russian experts are different: they are mostly devoted to the energetic component and much less affect its relationship with economic growth. These disproportions have induced the researchers to perform a general review of articles of national and foreign authors. In the process of literary sources studying it was found that the main subject of research abroad is the test of four hypotheses about connection between two variables: EC (Energy Consumption) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - the variables don‟t correlate; the growth of energy consumption causes the economic growth; the economic growth stimulates the energy consumption; mutual development exists. For test of these hypotheses foreign analysts use the complex mathematical tool. In domestic practice such statistical methods in the evaluation of the economic and energetic connections are rarely used. Despite the long-term and significant efforts to identify the links between economic growth and primary energy resources consumption, research results are very contradictory. In general, since the 1990s, the debate on the issue has degenerated into a debate about the legality of the metamathematical statistics methods. Recently many scientists tend to the shift problem solving strategy to the expanse of attention to the institutional factors influence, particularly to the accounting on the informal sector activity. Discussion points are present among Russian scientists as well. Some of them are of the opinion based on the dependence of energetic consumption in Russia on the geographic rather than economic factors, others defend the economic motivation of energy consumption, and the uncertainty of results obtained is explained by insufficient development of the country's market-based mechanisms. In Ukrainian analytics the approach to the practical requirements generation of PER is prevalent on the assumption of existing reality. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian studies do not connect consumption of PER with the influence on the informal sector. The conclusion concerning the reasonability of consideration of economic and energetic problem was made by sectoral decomposition of economic processes and accounting of distinctions in terms of informal activities.

Energy is an important factor effecting the economic development of the countries. The energy dependence is increasing with economic growth. This relationship between growth and energy consumption is especially important for energy dependent countries. Sustainable economic growth is dependent on meeting the increasing energy demand at the same rate. Relationship between energy and economic growth plays a key role in the creation of the countries’ energy policies. In a further aspect, if there is no relationship between energy consumption and growth, the possibility of negative impact of energy conservation policies on the growth, such as energy tax, energy saving policy, energy pricing policy, is eliminated. Therefore, limited energy resources against increasing energy need of the countries, foreign-source dependency for energy of many countries and environmental/ecological factors in the production, bring the energy issues more important and sensitive position. In this respect, the determination of relationship between economic consumption and economic growth in terms of both Turkey's foreign-source dependency for the primary energy sources (coal, oil, gas), and Central Asia Turkish Republics’ rich hydrocarbon resources and geopolitical position is the focus of this study. In this context, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in seven countries during the period of 1992–2012. For this purpose, it is analyzed cointegration and long-run causality relationship between these variables by adopting a Vector Error Correction Model for cointegrated panel data with Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The traditional economic development aims at customer satisfaction and profits maximization, but overused the natural resources. Therefore, it becomes a necessity to take into account the social and environmental aspects. In order to ensure sustainable development, it have been adopted numerous rules and regulations which set objectives and targets aiming to reduce emissions and contributing to a responsible behavior. One of the objectives set at EU level is to ensure that sustainable development is the use of renewable resources in the production of electricity. In order to encourage the use of renewable energy sources for energy production it applied a system of promotion throughout green certificates, which aims, among other goals, to reduce imports of primary energy resources, stimulate the local and regional sustainable development, create employment throughout new jobs, reduce the environmental pollution by minimizing emissions. In this paper we intend to analyze the tools used in Romania for the purpose of promoting the production of energy from renewable sources, the green certificates market, the share of renewable energy in gross inland consumption, the fulfillment degree of the target and their reflection in the annual financial statements of energy production companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.

Climate change has become a priority issue since the beginning of the '90s, but binding agreements on GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission reduction valid worldwide have not been reached yet. The European Union has been a forerunner on regional binding targets with its “20-20-20” Climate and Energy Package approved in 2009, followed in Dec. 2011 by more ambitious targets implying a dramatic reduction by 2050 of GHG emissions to 80–95% below 1990 levels. After a review of the present world situation with respect to primary energy resources, electricity production and CO2 emissions, the paper addresses the present and foreseen penetration of the power generation from RES (Renewable Energy Sources) in the EU (European Union), underlining also the economic impact on final clients caused by generous feed in tariffs. The impact of a substantial increase of RES generation both in power and energy on the power market operation and system reliability and security are presented with practical examples from the Italian situations; e.g.: distortion of the day-ahead power market prices, critical load following requirements for conventional plants, need for additional reserve and risk of excess of non-programmable generation (“overgeneration”) in some hours, risk of dynamic stability and worsening of power quality. The main solutions to overcome the above problems are reviewed and a methodology developed by CESI is described explaining how to attain the maximum share of RES generation in a specific power system, in compliance with reliability and security standards. In authors'opinion, the technical and economic aspects must be treated together and it is mandatory to arrive quickly at agreed costs for the environmental impact of electrical infrastructures, particularly CO2 and other GHG emissions. Coherently, new RES generation and related network assets must be planned in an appropriate way to be a real asset and not a problem.

The article outlines the current state of increasing consumption and demand for primary energy resources due to exhaustion and avalanche-like growth of their world prices. The effects of excessive use of non-renewable energy resources that have led to global climate change and deterioration of the natural environment are highlighted. The priority of sustainable development of the world energy sector is based on increasing consumption of renewable energy resources. The processes of the general world consumption of various types of primary energy and the dynamics of indicators of world bioethanol and biodiesel production during 2000-2018 are analysed. The forecast of consumption of the primary world energy and the production of liquid biofuels has been made for 2019-2025. The results indicate that the world market of bioethanol and biodiesel tends to expand, providing from an economic point of view rational use of energy resources, reducing gasoline and diesel consumption.

We decompose the impacts of five drivers of energy use and CO2 emissions in achieving climate change goals over 2005-2100 for various climate policy scenarios. This study contributes to the decomposition literature in three ways. First, it disaggregates drivers of energy demand into technological progress and demand for energy services allowing us to estimate their contributions independently – an improvement over other economy-wide decomposition studies. Secondly, this approach reduces the ambiguity present in many previous measures of structural change. We delineate structural shifts into two separate measures: changes in fuel mix within a given resource or service; and changes in mix among distinct energy resources or end-use services. Finally, this study applies decomposition methods to energy and emissions trajectories from two mutually informing perspectives: (i) primary energy resources – crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables; and (ii) end-uses of energy services – residential and commercial buildings, industry, and transportation. Our results show that technological improvements and energy conservation are important in meeting short term and moderate climate goals; and that nuclear and renewable energy and CCS technology are crucial in meeting more stringent goals. We examine the relative roles of the drivers in reducing CO2 emissions separately for developed and developing regions. Although the majority of energy and emissions growth – and by extension the greatest opportunities for mitigation – will occur in developing countries, the decomposition shows that the relative roles of the five drivers are broadly consistent between these two regions. While similar decompositions have been conducted on historical data, very few have decomposed future scenarios from an integrated assessment model, and at this level of detail.

This paper presents a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model for the optimal long-term energy planning of a (national) power generation system. In order to capture more accurately the spatial and technical characteristics of the problem, the underlying geographical area (country) is divided into a number of individual networks that interact with each other. The proposed model determines the optimal planning of the power generation system, the selection of the power generation technologies, the type of fuels and the plant locations so as to meet the expected electricity demand, while satisfying environmental constraints in terms of CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the suggested model determines the electricity imports from neighbouring countries, the electricity transmission as well as the transportation of primary energy resources between domestic networks. A real case study concerning the Greek energy planning problem demonstrates the applicability of the proposed approach, which can provide policy makers with a systematic computer-aided tool to analyse various scenarios and technology options. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to capture the influence of some key parameters such as electricity demand, natural gas and CO2 emission price as well as wind power investment cost.

The paper highlights the regional disparities of the Romanian energy system, evaluated from three different perspectives: the generation utilities structure within the eight country development regions; the human resources endowment; the economic and financial situation of the energy companies administrated by each region. Also, our research envisages the regional development perspectives for the national energy system in terms of production units that should be decommissioned in order to comply with the environmental regulations that Romania agreed with the European Commission. The analysis revealed that, despite a national level structural equilibrium triggered by a diversified structure of primary energy resources, the energy systems’ situation at regional and microeconomic levels indicate an important lack of balance between the country regions. Main determinants and effects are depicted in this paper

Determinant factors of the Romanian energy systems’ transformation processes include both positive and negative ones. The former refer to European integration, creation of the Single Energy Market, the important number of clients/consumers, the energy systems’ performances - the first economic structure integrated with the European ones -, the existing primary energy resources etc. The latter include the lack of a coherent domestic industrial policy and the vulnerability of decision makers facing external pressures. The Romanian electricity generation structure has modified during the last 23 years. The main coordinates comprise: a continuous reduction, nearly to extinction, of the main generation company's share of the electricity market; atomization of the generation sector; privatization of five from eight existing distribution companies; creation of the supply segment; and, last but not least, the electricity price liberalization. The paper analyses some of the contradictory tendencies in over 20 year late history of the Romanian energy system and draws a series of possible measures to implement in order to counteract the negative results.

The demand for electrical energy in Turkey, which is increasing due to population growth and industrialization like in the rest of the world, can only be met by either increasing the amount of energy produced with existing resources or by reducing energy consumption, on the basis of energy efficiency at every stage of production to consumption in other words. Use of primary energy resources in Turkey, which has to meet a large portion of its energy needs through imports, between the years 2000–2009 was examined with the Malmquist total factor productivity index (MPI). The analyses determined a decrease of 5.4% in electrical energy production due to inefficient use of indigenous resources and the current installed capacity. This study can be considered as an effort to draw attention to use of indigenous resources in terms of both contributions to the national economy and energy security.

The exploitation and production of primary energy resources and the supply of this energy is critical for China's economic development. Despite the obvious economic benefit to the nation, this energy production has had significant negative socio-economic impacts on certain groups of people at local and national scales. This paper documents three cases of energy production in China and demonstrates that, in each case, marginalisation of social groups has either been created or has been enhanced. These cases are the Three Gorges Dam, the Yumen oilfield, and township and village coal mines. The causes of this marginalisation have their roots in the structures, processes and approaches taken in the making and implementation of national policy in China, and are compounded by poor regulation and monitoring, poor civil rights, and the tension between central and local governments. The government which came to power in 2003 recognised the extent and importance of these social challenges relating to energy product...

South Asian countries, facing challenges in efficiently meeting growing electricity demand, can benefit from increased cross-border electricity cooperation and trade by harnessing complementarities in electricity demand patterns, diversity in resource endowments for power generation, and gains from larger market access. The region has witnessed slow progress in expanding regional electricity cooperation and trade, and undertaking needed domestic sector reforms. Although bilateral electricity sector cooperation in the region is increasing, broader regional cooperation and trade initiatives have lagged in the face of regional barriers and domestic sector inefficiencies. Deeper electricity market reforms are not a necessity for further development of cross-border electricity trade, but limited progress in overcoming regional and domestic barriers will limit the scope of the regional market and the benefits it can provide.

This paper analyzes the impact of economic reform on the qualitative parameters of the Czech environment. After delineating the pre-transformation environmental situation and identifying the main causes and factors of its degradation, an overview of legal changes in the environmental protection laws enacted since 1991 is carried out. There is a relatively autonomous analysis of water quality management and air pollution development viewed as individual aspects of the environmental issue. The focus is on the consequences of the decline in industrial production during the initial years of transformation on air and water quality, on investment in their protection and on the role of economic instruments in their financing during this period of reduced budgetary subsidies. In addition to water management, this analysis discusses the record of privatization in this regard and evaluates the impact of user charges liberalization on drinking water consumption. The air pollution analysis is focused on the changes in the primary energy resources structure and on the necessary conditions for effective implementation of an energy conservation strategy. The chosen connections in both parts of this analysis are quantified using the simple econometric model. Policy-oriented conclusions follow as a result of this analysis.

Thermodynamic analysis based on energy and exergy balance can be applied at macroscales such as sector of activity, geopolitical region, country, group of countries, or the world. An energy balance can be determined by accounting for all primary energy flows, all useful forms of energy, and the energy losses in the conversion processes. Such analysis gives important insights regarding the way in which the primary energy resources are used; it helps identify the ways and places for improvement, and it is a necessary tool for macroeconomical planning.

The purpose of this paper is to conjecture the possible underlying technological determinants of future long waves, based on prominent studies of scholars and leading forecasting companies; in particular, this research assumes the converging of nano-bio-info-cogno technologies to be the foundation of 5th and 6th economic cycles, whereas the future technological revolution that may underpin the 7th long wave is assumed to be Faster-Than-Light technologies. The positive effects of these future technological revolutions on worldwide economic system are a high increase of productivity, employment rate, consumption and economic growth that lead to longer, happier, and healthier living as well as general well-being.

Misunderstandings on the physical principles for efficient energy utilization may possibly mislead people’s energy-use, energy policies, national project goals and/or academic RD lightness, rotating-, moving-forces, favorable space conditions, hot water and/or high/low temperature heat for various industrial processes, neither oil/gas nor electricity. The author reconsiders on the concept of sustainable, favorable and efficient energy-use that involves all energy conversion and transmission sectors from the primary energy resources to the final energy benefits beyond the so-called final energy consumption, including the combined use and the probably partial electrification of vehicles where possible. The concept will remarkably elevate the overall efficiency through energy/mechanical-power conversion, by employing emerging technologies e.g. IGCC and heat pumps, the theories of which although not so new but remain innovative today.

Knowing the quality of individual forms of the primary energy is of great importance in the long term analysis of the development of an energy economy. The basis for this is the scenario approach, because scenarios indicate the most probable trends of the future development of an energy economy in case the chosen starting points are realized. The possible scenarios of the future Slovene energy economy and an energy balance are presented. >

In the AEO95 model reference case scenario, the United States is projected to consume 104 quadrillion Btu of primary energy resources in 2010, 19 percent more than in 1993. Primary energy consumption includes fuels used directly by consumers, in addition to energy used for electricity generation and distribution. The GDP is 46 percent higher in 2010 than in 1993, and the population is 16 percent larger. Thus, on a per-capita basis, energy use is projected to increase slightly, while the overall energy intensity of the economy continues to decline.

Recent attempts to construct national energy efficiency indices begin with the construction of Btu aggregates which are developed by adding together different energy resources based on their heating potential values or the heating values of the primary energy resources used to produce the energy resources which are ultimately consumed. The resulting indices may be of limited use in economic studies, where it is often important to consider the relative economic value of various component resources and their substitutability in response to relative price changes. In such applications, Btu aggregates will tend to suggest greater achievements in energy efficiency during periods of electrification than would an approach which aggregates different energy resources based on their market values.

The analysis shows the impact of the ‘New International Energy Order’ on Jamaica, a developing country almost totally dependent on imported oil for satisfying national energy demand. The energy supply/demand situation between 1961 and 1976 and the structure of energy consumption by major sectors of the economy are discussed. The high income elasticity of commercial energy demand and the increase in the energy intensity of the economy is directly related to expansion of the alumina industry. The structural problems of decoupling GDP and energy growth are indicated. In particular, the impact of the ‘New Energy Order’ on the development prospects of major bauxite/alumina producing countries which are deficient in indigenous primary energy resources is assessed. Finally, the indigenous resource base is outlined and the major elements of the five-year (1978–1982) national energy plan summarized.

In capacity expansion studies of power generation systems, the uncertainty in the prices of the primary energy resources is a major concern. The approach presented in this paper accounts for this uncertainty by mapping the probability distribution of the installed capacity for any given distribution of the fuel prices. Given the probability density function and the cumulative distribution of the installed capacity, a variety of performance measures is derived, including the expected value, the mode, and the variance of the installed capacity, and the expected total costs. Results are obtained analytically for a 2-unit system using a breakeven point analysis approach to find the optimal mix for any given set of fuel prices under the assumption of normally distributed primary energy prices.

THE ENERGY SHORTAGE IN THE U. S. WAS PREDICTABLE TWO YEARS AGO WHEN THE DOMESTIC SUPPLY OF FUELS BEGAN TO FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE RISING TOTAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL REACHED AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN 1972 AND HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE. GRAPHS ARE PRESENTED WHICH ILLUSTRATE THE U. S. DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS AND THE AVAILABILITY OF LIMITED QUANTITIES OF SYNTHETIC GAS AND OIL AND HYDROELECTRIC POWER. IN ANY ATTEMPT TO FIND SOLUTIONS TO FIND SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEM, THE NEED IS INDICATED FOR AN OVERALL TAXONOMY OF ENERGY. THIS MUST CONSIST OF A LISTING OF THE OPTIONS IN A LOGICAL HIERACHY, SO THAT NATIONAL DEBATE LEADS TO PUBLIC ILLUMINATION AND EVENTUALLY TO SATISFACTORY CHOICES. THE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS IS REVIEWED AND THE PROCESS OF TECHNOLOGICAL DISCUSSION IS CONSIDERED. THE COMPARISON OF VARIOUS NUCLEAR METHODS FOR GENERATING NUCLEAR POWER IS CONSIDERED AS AN EXAMPLE. IMBALANCES IN THE FISSION PROGRAM ARE DETAILED. THE SERIOUS IMBALANCE IN THE BREEDER-REACTOR PROGRAM (WITH ITS BUDGET OF $320 MILLION) IS DISCUSSED. SIMILAR ASSESSMENTS ARE MADE WITH RESPECT TO ELECTRIC POWER AND SOLAR ENERGY. THE ALLOCATION OF PRIMARY ENERGY RESOURCES AMONG USERS IS CONSIDERED IN DETAIL. POSSIBLE INTERNATINAL IMPACTS ARE REVIEWED. ENERGY PROVISION VERSUS ENERGY UTILIZATION AND CONSERVATION IS NEXT DISCUSSED AND SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS ARE MADE FOR AMELIORATING FUTURE ENERGY DIFFICULTIES.

The international economic literature offers a significant number of publications approaching the European energy markets functioning, including comparative studies. The development and performances of the Romanian electricity spot market were less investigated, mainly because of the relatively short period of its functioning. The paper quantifies the impact of the electricity generation utilities’ structure by primary energy resources, on bidding prices resulted after the closure of the day ahead market. The multidimensional regression method was utilized for the models development. As a result, three distinct econometric models were obtained for different hourly periods of the day (off peak hours, peak hours, daily average) for working days and other three models for the weekend days. Based on these models, negative and positive correlations were established between the electricity prices and the seasonal contribution of the different categories of energy facilities to the demand curve coverage.

The energy supply model MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Systems and Their General Environmental Impact) is a dynamic linear programming (DLP) model which minimizes total discounted costs of energy supply over a given time horizon. The main subject of the model is the balancing of demand for secondary energy and supply of primary energy resources via a menu of technologies. The most important model constraints reflect limits on the speed of buildup of technologies, the availability of indigenous and imported resources, and technological relationships. The model considers load regions for electricity demand, disaggregates resources into cost categories, and calculates environmental impacts of energy supply strategies. The model output is used to describe scenarios of energy supply. These scenarios account for the physical flows of energy between primary energy and end use; shadow prices of supply and demand constraints; and environmental impacts of energy supply paths, expressed as emissions and concentrations of pollutants.

This paper derives optimum pricing rules in the Indian context for three major publicly produced energy resources: coal, petroleum, and electricity. The author develops a model that is somewhat aggregative, but the analysis can be extended to disaggregated energy products or consumer groups without limitation. He establishes a welfare-maximizing framework that takes into account income disparity as well as social marginal utilities of different consumers. Because the model is static it does not consider the depletion of primary energy resources. The findings suggest that both electricity and crude oil should be subjected to higher taxes in the coming years, but the price of coal should continue to be subsidized. Non-coking coals should have substantial subsidies, while coking coal subsidies should be marginal. 35 references, 4 tables.

More than 98 percent of Israel's primary energy resources are imported, most of it as crude oil, the rest of it as coal, placing the country in a most vulnerable and awkward position. The sharp increases in crude oil prices in 1973 following the Yom Kippur War and in 1979 has increased the country's economic burden, contributing to its increasing deficit in the balance of payments and staggering inflation rate. Perhaps here more than anywhere else, a balanced energy policy is most crucial for security and well-being. Such policy would allow diversification of primary energy resources by using more alternative and renewable resources supplemented by a variety of ways of managing demand and controlling peak-load growth.