24 results on '"Rashid, Shahidur'
Search Results
2. Does a 'Blue Revolution' help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid, Nicholas Minot, and Solomon Lemma
- Subjects
Consumption (economics) ,Economics and Econometrics ,Poverty ,business.industry ,Poverty reduction ,Fish farming ,Microsimulation ,Agricultural economics ,Aquaculture ,Per capita ,Economics ,Production (economics) ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science - Abstract
The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.
- Published
- 2019
3. Grain marketing parastatals in Asia: results from six case studies
- Author
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Rashid, Shahidur, Cummings, Ralph, Jr., and Gulati, Ashok
- Subjects
Grain industry -- Case studies ,Grain industry -- Laws, regulations and rules ,Government regulation ,Business, international ,Economics ,International relations - Abstract
Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in food grain markets, documents the existing policies and regulatory supports to grain marketing parastatals, examines benefits and costs of parastatals, and summarizes lessons from reforms and reduced interventions. The results suggest that commonly cited rationales for food market intervention are no longer convincing, the costs of parastatals-led price stabilization are staggering, and the price policies are being dictated by special interests. The evidences from the early reformers indicate that reduced intervention can promote competition, reduce subsidies, and release funds for development and anti-poverty programs--all without jeopardizing price stability. Key words--Asia, grain marketing parastatals, agricultural price policy, rice and wheat markets
- Published
- 2007
4. Micro-lending for small farmers in Bangladesh: does it affect farm households' land allocation decision?
- Author
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Rashid, Shahidur, Sharma, Manohar, and Zeller, Manfred
- Subjects
Bangladesh -- Economic aspects ,Bangladesh -- Agricultural policy ,Farms, Small -- Management ,Company business management ,Business ,Business, international ,Economics ,Regional focus/area studies - Abstract
The re-examination of the issue in the context of a specially designed group based lending programs for small farmers in Bangladesh, who neither have access to formal source of credit nor do they qualify to become members of other micro-credit organizations is presented. The results of the study indicate that the impacts of credit on farm households' and land allocation decisions significantly depend on how they get access to credit.
- Published
- 2004
5. Market Institutions and Price Relationships: The Case of Coffee in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid, Tadesse Kuma, Solomon Lemma, and Manuel A. Hernandez
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Heteroscedasticity ,Financial economics ,Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ,Commodity exchange ,05 social sciences ,Terms of trade ,01 natural sciences ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) ,010104 statistics & probability ,0502 economics and business ,Value (economics) ,Economics ,Popular media ,050207 economics ,0101 mathematics ,Volatility transmission ,Commodity (Marxism) - Abstract
While the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) is widely considered a successful market institution, very little rigorous empirical investigation has been done on it. This paper contributes to filling this knowledge gap. Using a unique set of spatially disaggregated prices for five different coffee varieties, we examine how the ECX has influenced the dynamics of international and domestic prices for coffee, the largest traded commodity in terms of trade value on the exchange floor. We follow a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach to assess the extent of market interdependence (conditional correlations) and volatility transmission. We also evaluate structural changes in price dynamics over time. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular media stories, the ECX’s success in strengthening coffee price relationships has been limited. We discuss the underlying reasons and implications of this finding.
- Published
- 2017
6. Summary and implications
- Author
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Xiaobo Zhang and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Consumption (economics) ,Poverty ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Agricultural economics ,Aquaculture ,Agriculture ,Economics ,Per capita ,Production (economics) ,business ,Green Revolution ,Welfare ,media_common - Abstract
Led by aquaculture, the fishery sector in Bangladesh has been remarkably successful in rapidly increasing production, reducing prices, and meeting rising domestic demand. The trend has defied many earlier predictions, and the success clearly deserves to be labeled a Blue Revolution. In the early 1990s, when the country was celebrating the success of the Green Revolution, per capita annual fish consumption was only 10 kilograms, with widespread concerns that consumption could decline even further because of rising prices (Bouis and Haddad 1992). The policy ambition was not high even in the early 2000s. In 2005 a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report argued that reaching per capita consumption of 18 kilograms per year would be a big accomplishment. The country far exceeded that target by 2010; and according to the latest estimates, per capita fish consumption in Bangladesh reached 23 kilograms per year in 2016 (BBS 2017). This book has attempted to understand the enablers, impacts, and prospects of this unprecedented growth.
- Published
- 2019
7. Welfare and poverty impacts of aquaculture growth
- Author
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Solomon Lemma, Shahidur Rashid, and Nicholas Minot
- Subjects
South asia ,Poverty ,Aquaculture ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Development economics ,Economics ,business ,Welfare ,media_common - Published
- 2019
8. Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade
- Author
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Joanna Van Asselt, Paul A. Dorosh, and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Food security ,Poverty ,Cointegration ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,International economics ,Private sector ,Agricultural economics ,0502 economics and business ,Food processing ,Economics ,Market price ,Agricultural policy ,050202 agricultural economics & policy ,Economic impact analysis ,050207 economics ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science - Abstract
South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one-third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.
- Published
- 2016
9. Rural Finance and Agricultural Technology Adoption in Ethiopia: Does the Institutional Design of Lending Organizations Matter?
- Author
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Carlo Borzaga, Shahidur Rashid, Gashaw Tadesse Abate, and Kindie Getnet
- Subjects
Finance ,Stylized fact ,Microfinance ,Economics and Econometrics ,Poverty ,Sociology and Political Science ,business.industry ,Financial institution ,050204 development studies ,05 social sciences ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Development ,law.invention ,Agrarian society ,Agriculture ,law ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,050207 economics ,Agricultural productivity ,business ,Financial services - Abstract
Summary It has now become almost a stylized fact that sustained agricultural growth is central to rapid poverty reduction and economic development. Yet, world poverty is largely concentrated in the agrarian societies, which have the potential for agricultural productivity growth. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan African countries, where the gaps between potential and actual yields remain high. Minimizing this gap through the promotion of modern inputs—such as fertilizer and modern seeds—has been at the core of almost all development strategies in Ethiopia. Among other initiatives, the country has promoted microfinance institutions and member-owned financial cooperatives to alleviate credit constraints of the smallholder farmers. This paper analyzes the impacts of these institutions. Using household survey data and a propensity-score-matching technique, we examine the effects that institutional financial services have on farmers’ adoption of agricultural technology in Ethiopia. The results suggest that access to institutional finance has a significant positive impact on both the adoption and extent of technology use. However, when impacts are disaggregated by type of financial institution and farm size, heterogeneities are observed. In particular, financial cooperatives have a greater impact on technology adoption than microfinance institutions, and the results appear to vary depending on farm size and types of inputs. The paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption of modern agricultural inputs.
- Published
- 2016
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10. Escalation of Real Wages in Bangladesh: Is it the Beginning of Structural Transformation?
- Author
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Akhter Ahmed, Xiaobo Zhang, Shahidur Rashid, and Kaikaus Ahmad
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Labour economics ,Sociology and Political Science ,Poverty ,Earnings ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Lewis turning point ,Wage ,Development ,Industrialisation ,Nonfarm payrolls ,Economics ,Asset (economics) ,Real wages ,media_common - Abstract
Summary Using data from multiple sources, we show that the real wages in Bangladesh, particularly in rural areas and for female workers, have accelerated in recent years. Real wage escalation is likely the result of a combination of more job opportunities in the nonfarm sector, especially in the manufacturing sector, and a greater inflow of remittances, primarily from unskilled male workers overseas. Since physical labor is the most important asset for the poor, the escalation in real wages has boosted the poor’s earnings, helping them improve their livelihood and escape poverty.
- Published
- 2014
11. Can modern input use be promoted without subsidies? An analysis of fertilizer in Ethiopia
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid, Nicholas Minot, Gezahegn Ayele, and Nigussie Tefera
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Liberalization ,business.industry ,Public sector ,Subsidy ,Agricultural economics ,Economics ,Profitability index ,Fertilizer subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa ,Value chain ,Monopoly ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Stock (geology) - Abstract
Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has nearly quintupled since official elimination of direct input subsidies in the early 1990s. During this time, policies changed from liberalization, with both private and public sector participation, to a government monopoly over imports along with exclusive marketing through farmers’ cooperatives. This article presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, as well as costs of the government's fertilizer promotion policies. Results suggest that (a) irrespective of the methods of calculation, fertilizer use in major cereal is profitable; (b) while there is no official subsidy program, fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs—estimated at US$40 million per year since 2008; and (c) there has been a mismatch between government's policy targets and the effective fertilizer demand, resulting in large carryover stock with estimated implicit costs of US$30 million per year during 2008–2011. Areas of policy attention, value chain improvements, and ongoing efforts to improve for fertilizer use and profitability are discussed.
- Published
- 2013
12. Modern input promotion in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Asian green revolution
- Author
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Mehrab Malek, Paul A. Dorosh, Shahidur Rashid, and Solomon Lemma
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,business.industry ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Subsidy ,Agricultural economics ,Promotion (rank) ,Agriculture ,Economics ,Profitability index ,Fertilizer subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa ,Agricultural productivity ,Leakage (economics) ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Green Revolution ,media_common - Abstract
Using case materials from four major cereal growing countries in Asia (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan), the article analyzes key aspects of agricultural input policies in Asia. Results suggest that Asian policies differ from the current wave of African input subsidy programs in three important ways: (i) instead of focusing mostly on seed and chemical fertilizer, input promotion in Asia involved a package approach involving investments in agricultural RD (ii) farmers in three of four countries paid higher prices (net taxed) for fertilizer during the height of the green revolution, suggesting that it was the profitability, not the subsidy, that was central to increasing fertilizer use; and (iii) Asian countries did not target input subsidies, but given leakage and diversion estimates of targeted programs, it is unclear whether targeting would have been more cost-effective. Both continents have two challenges in common: degradation of soil health and increasingly larger shares of public spending on input subsidies. The first challenge calls for paying attentions to improving fertilizer use efficiency, which is an achievable target, with high pay off in the long run. The other challenge is now a historical fact—that is, once introduced, subsidies are hard to eliminate, even if they no longer contribute to agricultural productivity growth.
- Published
- 2013
13. Input subsidy programs in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of recent evidence
- Author
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Thomas S. Jayne and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,business.industry ,Food prices ,Subsidy ,Agricultural economics ,Agriculture ,Economics ,Agricultural policy ,Fertilizer subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa ,Economic impact analysis ,Agricultural productivity ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Productivity - Abstract
Input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in Africa. Ten African governments spend roughly US$1 billion annually on input subsidy programs (ISPs), amounting to 28.6% of their public expenditures on agriculture. This article reviews the microlevel evidence on ISPs undertaken since the mid 2000s. We examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries, crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs, the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems, and finally the impact of ISPs on food price levels and poverty rates. The weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits. Findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices—factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in Africa—indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to R&D and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction. However, because ISPs enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents, they are likely to remain on the African landscape for the foreseeable future. Hence, the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy. Among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently. The challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable.
- Published
- 2013
14. Trade subsidies, export bans and price stabilization: Lessons of Bangladesh–India rice trade in the 2000s
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid and Paul A. Dorosh
- Subjects
Consumption (economics) ,Commercial policy ,International market ,Economics and Econometrics ,Sociology and Political Science ,Food prices ,Subsidy ,International economics ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Development ,Below poverty line ,Price stabilization ,Openness to experience ,Economics ,Food Science - Abstract
During the world food price crisis of 2007–08, rice importing countries suffered through a sharp increase in international rice prices and disruptions in supply as several rice exporters restricted trade to mitigate their domestic price increases. Perhaps no country was more affected by these disruptions than Bangladesh. Our analysis shows that prior to the 2007 crisis, when Bangladesh imported an average of nearly 1 million tons of rice per year from India, domestic wholesale prices of rice in Bangladesh were co-integrated with import parity prices of subsidized Below Poverty Line (BPL) rice. When in mid-2007, India sharply curtailed exports, rice prices surged in Bangladesh. Model simulations show that a relatively small increase in private consumer stocks equivalent to about 2 weeks of normal consumption could account for the large surge in domestic prices in Bangladesh and that an additional 300,000 tons (in addition to approximately 700,000 tons of net rice distribution that actually occurred) would have been sufficient to stabilize prices in the November 2007–April 2008 period. The Bangladesh analysis thus shows that in spite of the uncertainty in international markets, careful planning, timely interventions and openness to trade can substantially reduce requirements for public stockholding.
- Published
- 2013
15. Grain Marketing Parastatals in Asia: Results from Six Case Studies
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid, Ashok Gulati, and Ralph Cummings
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Sociology and Political Science ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Psychological intervention ,Subsidy ,Development ,Competition (economics) ,Intervention (law) ,Price stabilization ,Asian country ,Economics ,Price of stability ,Marketing ,health care economics and organizations ,Food market - Abstract
Summary Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in food grain markets, documents the existing policies and regulatory supports to grain marketing parastatals, examines benefits and costs of parastatals, and summarizes lessons from reforms and reduced interventions. The results suggest that commonly cited rationales for food market intervention are no longer convincing, the costs of parastatals-led price stabilization are staggering, and the price policies are being dictated by special interests. The evidences from the early reformers indicate that reduced intervention can promote competition, reduce subsidies, and release funds for development and anti-poverty programs—all without jeopardizing price stability.
- Published
- 2007
16. Enhancing Food Security in South Sudan: The Role of Public Food Stocks and Cereal Imports
- Author
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Abigail Childs, Paul A. Dorosh, Shahidur Rashid, and Joanna Van Asselt
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Food security ,Poverty ,business.industry ,Domestic market ,language.human_language ,Agricultural economics ,Agriculture ,Food processing ,Food policy ,language ,Economics ,Per capita ,Agricultural productivity ,business - Abstract
South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low per capita levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, political unrest, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. Agricultural productivity is low, and the country is highly dependent on private-sector imports of cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice) from Uganda to supply domestic markets. National household survey data indicate substantial diversity in consumption of cereals across households, and our econometric estimates suggest highly price- and income-inelastic demand for the two major cereals, sorghum and maize. Drawing on a review of international experience and the constraints facing South Sudan, we conclude that a national food security reserve (NFSR) system with a small national food security stock is feasible for South Sudan. Cereal stocks would be kept mainly for targeted safety nets and emergency distribution, and market interventions would be limited in scope, in keeping with a long-run goal of market development. Nonetheless, even with a functioning NFSR, promotion of private-sector domestic and import trade will remain crucial for ensuring adequate supplies of grain and food security
- Published
- 2015
17. Grain price stabilization experiences in Asia: What have we learned?
- Author
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Ashok Gulati, Shahidur Rashid, and Ralph Cummings
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Government ,Economic growth ,Sociology and Political Science ,Economic policy ,Psychological intervention ,Mistake ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Development ,Task (project management) ,Dilemma ,Incentive ,Price stabilization ,Economics ,Green Revolution ,Food Science - Abstract
Governments in most Asian countries used grain price stabilization as a major policy instrument when they embarked on promoting the Green Revolution. The art of public policy-making is to know when to introduce government interventions and when to withdraw. The common mistake is to forget the withdrawal part, leading to unsustainably high costs – a dilemma that most Asian countries are confronted with today. Analyzing case studies of six Asian countries, which have tried to tackle the task in different ways with varying degrees of success, eight key lessons can be learned from the more than three decades of food price stabilization in Asia. Times have changed: policies and public agencies that may have been appropriate 30 years ago are not optimal today. Private institutions have strengthened significantly – or could be strengthened significantly – and should be entrusted for many of the functions that parastatals, or other government agencies, have traditionally performed. Holding on to old practices delays reaping the benefits that changing current policies have to offer.
- Published
- 2006
18. 5 Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid and Asfaw Negassa
- Subjects
Sustainable development ,Industrialisation ,Agricultural marketing ,Poverty ,Agricultural land ,Agriculture ,business.industry ,Measures of national income and output ,Economics ,Agricultural productivity ,business ,Agricultural economics - Abstract
Cereal production and marketing is the single largest sub-sector within Ethiopia’s agriculture. It dominates in terms of its share in rural employment, agricultural land use, and calorie intake, as well as its contribution to national income. The sub-sector accounts for roughly 60 percent of rural employments, about 73 percent of total cultivated land, more than 40 percent of a typical household’s food expenditure, and more than 60 percent of total caloric intake of a typical household in the country.1 The contribution of cereals to national income is also large: according to available estimates, cereals’ contribution to agricultural value added is 65 percent (Diao et al. 2007), which translates to about 30 percent of GDP.2. Thus, it is no surprise that, despite differing political ideologies, all agricultural production and marketing policies since the 1960s have had a focus on the cereals sub-sector. Since 1991, strategies for both growth and poverty reduction have placed a heavy emphasis on cereal production and marketing. The Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy, the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Plan (SDPRP), and the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) all highlight the importance of cereals in Ethiopia’s overall economic development. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) instituted the Participatory Demonstration and Extension Training System (PADETS), in the mid-1990s with the specific purpose of increasing cereal production through demonstration of seed-fertilizer technology. As part of these strategies, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has undertaken substantial market reforms, accelerated investments in road and communication networks, and initiated programs to increase cereal production through large-scale demonstrations of the benefits of modern seeds and greater fertilizer use. The structure of Ethiopian cereal markets has undergone massive changes since the 1960s due to dramatic shifts in government agricultural production and market policies, vast improvements in marketing infrastructure, and major increases in domestic production. This paper documents these experiences. It begins by giving a historical overview of policies that have directly or indirectly affected cereal production and marketing.
- Published
- 2014
19. 6 Livestock Production and Marketing
- Author
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Adam Kennedy, Berhanu Gebremedhin, Shahidur Rashid, and Asfaw Negassa
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Earnings ,business.industry ,Agriculture ,Store of value ,Pastoralism ,Economics ,Revenue ,Livestock ,Marketing ,business ,Livelihood ,Mixed farming ,Agricultural economics - Abstract
The livestock is an important sub-sector within Ethiopia’s economy in terms of its contributions to both agricultural value-added and national GDP. Between 1995/96 and 2005/06, the livestock sub-sector’s share averaged 24 percent of agricultural GDP and 11 percent of national GDP, with the highest shares recorded at 27 percent and 13 percent, respectively, at its peak (NBE 2005/06). The contribution of livestock and livestock product exports to foreign exchange earnings is also large. The annual average revenue from livestock and livestock product exports was estimated to be 13 percent of the annual national foreign exchange earnings during the period 2000/01 to 2007/08 (NBE 2007/08). Given the large porous border, a large amount of cross-border exports also go un-recorded. Therefore, the official estimates of foreign exchange earnings do not necessarily reflect the actual volume of exports.At the household level, livestock plays a critical economic and social role in the lives of pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and smallholder farm households. Livestock fulfills an important function in coping with shocks, accumulating wealth, and serving as a store of value in the absence of formal financial institutions and other missing markets. In the case of smallholder mixed farming systems, livestock provides nutritious food, additional emergency and cash income, transportation, farm outputs and inputs, and fuels for cooking food. In the case of pastoralists, livestock represents a sole means to support and sustain their livelihoods. Furthermore, available research suggests that with economic growth, consumption patterns tend to change towards high value and high protein foods, such as those derived from livestock (Delgado et al. 1999). This implies that, given the economic growth in Ethiopia and the region, the market demand for livestock and livestock products is likely to continue growing in the future. The government recognizes the importance of livestock in poverty alleviation and has increased its emphasis on modernizing and commercializing the livestock sub-sector in recent years (SPS-LMM 2008).Focusing on four key livestock classes—cattle, sheep, goats, and chicken—this chapter undertakes three tasks: (1) it provides a characterization of the livestock subsector, (2) it assesses livestock and livestock product value chains based on primary data, and (3) analyzes the trends in marketing and trade of live animals and animal products. Carrying out these tasks relies on the critical review of existing literature and policy documents, as well as extensive use of both secondary and primary data, including household and traders’ surveys. The paper is organized following the sequence of these major tasks and concludes with a summary and policy implications.
- Published
- 2014
20. Spatial Integration of Maize Markets in Post-liberalised Uganda
- Author
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Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Market integration ,Consumption (economics) ,Factor market ,Macroeconomics ,Economics and Econometrics ,Market depth ,Cointegration ,Liberalization ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Public policy ,Development ,Causality - Abstract
"Using weekly price data for two sub-periods, this paper analyzes how Ugandan maize market performed in the years following agricultural market liberalization in the early 1990's. For each time period, the extent of integration, causality among spatial locations, and relative importance of spatial locations in price formation are examined. The extent of integration, defined as a set of markets that shares common long-run price information, and the causal relationships among markets have been tested within Johansen's cointegration framework. The relative importance of each market locations is examined by estimating the common trend coefficients with a dynamic vector moving average model. Results indicate that, while there has been an overall improvement in spatial price responsiveness, the northern districts, which have been in a state of insurgency since 1986, continue to lack integration with major consumption markets in the central region. Causality test results show that compared to the 1993-1994-time period, representing the early years of liberalization, interdependence among markets has increased. Estimates of the common integrating trend suggest that public policies, such as price stabilization, can have desired impacts by targeting a small number of locations. These results are consistent with recently conducted household and market surveys in the country." Author's Abstract
- Published
- 2004
21. Micro-Lending for Small Farmers in Bangladesh: Does It Affect Farm Households' Land Allocation Decision?
- Author
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Manohar Sharma, Manfred Zeller, and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Selection bias ,Actuarial science ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Credit reference ,Developing country ,Context (language use) ,Agricultural economics ,Empirical research ,Credit history ,Economics ,Profitability index ,Credit limit ,media_common - Abstract
Despite higher profitability of High Yielding Varieties (HYVs), it has long been hypothesized that lack of access to credit is one of the main reasons, why farmers in developing countries continue to allocate a portion of their land to traditional crop varieties. The empirical testing of this hypothesis has generated a large body of literature with differing conclusions. This paper re-examines the issue in the context of a specially designed group based lending programs for small farmers in Bangladesh, who neither have access to formal sources of credit nor do they qualify to become members of other micro-credit organizations. Two measures of access to credit, credit limit and amount borrowed at a given point in time, have been used to analyze the determinants of farm households' land allocation decision. Under a variety of model specifications, formulated within Heckman's two-step method, the results show that credit limits from the lending programs and informal sources are significant determinants of small farmers' decision to cultivate HYV.
- Published
- 2004
22. Rising wages in Bangladesh
- Author
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Hak Lim Lee, Kaikaus Ahmad, Valerie Mueller, Ahmed Akhter, Saika Belal, Solomon Lemma, Xiaobo Zhang, and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
Labour economics ,Industrialisation ,Earnings ,Nonfarm payrolls ,Wages ,wage rates ,Lewis turning point ,Labor market ,Industrialization ,Gender ,Women ,Remittances ,Economics ,Asset (economics) ,Real wages ,Discount points ,Human capital - Abstract
Using data from multiple sources, we show that in Bangladesh, the increase in real wages, particularly female wages, has accelerated since the late 2000s, suggesting that the Lewis turning point (the point at which the labor market starts to shift in favor of workers) has arrived in Bangladesh. Rising wages are likely a result of a combination of more ample job opportunities in the nonfarm sector, especially in the manufacturing sector for females, and a greater amount of remittances, primarily from male workers overseas. Since human capital is the most important asset for the poor, the escalation in real wages has boosted the poor’s earnings, thereby reducing their likelihood of being poor.
- Published
- 2013
23. Fertilizer in Ethiopia: An Assessment of Policies, Value Chain, and Profitability
- Author
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Nicholas Minot, Gezahegn Ayele, Nigussie Tefera, and Shahidur Rashid
- Subjects
business.industry ,fertilizer ,crop yield ,yield response ,subsidies ,Markets ,Agricultural policies ,Subsidy ,Domestic market ,Agricultural economics ,Agriculture ,Economics ,Agricultural policy ,Profitability index ,Agricultural productivity ,Monopoly ,business ,Value chain ,health care economics and organizations - Abstract
Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has almost quintupled since the official elimination of input subsidy programs. Yet, application rates remain far below recommended level and, given limited scope for area expansion, fertilizer promotion continues to be the central focus for enhancing agricultural productivity. Unlike many other developing countries, Ethiopia has moved from partial liberalization in 1990s to government monopoly control over imports, with exclusive marketing through farmers’ organizations, since 2008. In 2010, the government embarked on a new policy initiative, the Growth and Transformation Program, which sets annual production targets for cereals by regions. In line with the objectives of this program, government increased fertilizer imports from 440 thousand tons in 2008 to about 890 thousand in 2012. However, fertilizer availability (import plus change in stocks) far exceeded total consumption resulting in large carryover stocks reaching almost half a million tons — worth roughly US$350 million — sitting in the cooperative warehouses throughout the country in 2012. This is the context in which the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency requested IFPRI to undertake a study analyzing policies, the value chain constraints, profitability of fertilizer, and opportunities for further expansion of fertilizer use. The study involved interviewing a large number of stakeholders in fertilizer value chain, collection of data on costs and margins from the key actors in the value chain, as well as household survey data. In this paper, we present the key findings from that study. In particular, the paper presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, and the costs of government’s fertilizer promotion policies. Based the estimates of the costs and margins in the fertilizer value chain, the study argues that the current value chain will not be sustainable unless the scale of operation, as well institutional capacity, of the primary cooperatives goes up. The estimates of profitability suggest that fertilizer use in major cereals is profitable, irrespective of the method of calculation/estimation, implying that recent challenge with carryover stock reflects the institutional and value chain constraints. With regards of program costs, this study finds that while there is no official subsidy program, fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs — estimated at US$40 million per year since 2008. Finally, for further expansion of fertilizer use, the study makes two recommendations: (a) allowing private sector to participate in the domestic markets alongside cooperatives; and (b) paying more attention to other cereals — such as barley and sorghum — where fertilizer use is close to zero.
- Published
- 2013
24. Grain Marketing Parastatals in Asia: Why Do They Have to Change Now?
- Author
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Ashok Gulati, Shahidur Rashid, and Ralph Cummings
- Subjects
Scarcity ,Competition (economics) ,Economic growth ,Economic policy ,Economic interventionism ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Economics ,Subsidy ,Private sector ,Monopoly ,Domestic market ,Foreign-exchange reserves ,media_common - Abstract
Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper (a) assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in foodgrain markets, (b) documents the existing policies and regulations that support operation of grain parastatals, (c) provides estimates of benefits and costs of parastatals, and (d) compares experiences of countries that liberalized (or reduced intervention) with the ones that continue to have significant presence of parastatals. Our results suggest that conditions in the region have improved significantly over the past thirty years; and none of the four commonly agreed rationales - that is, poorly integrated domestic markets, thin and volatile world market, promoting modern technology and the scarcity of foreign exchange reserves - for public intervention in foodgrain markets are now persuasive. Domestic foodgrain markets are integrated, international markets for both wheat and rice are significantly more robust than they were thirty years ago, High-Yielding Varieties (HYV) now cover practically all of the high potential area sown to wheat and rice; and foreign currency reserves have increased dramatically in all countries in recent years. However, although rationales have lost their significance, many countries continue to practice old policies and provide regulatory supports to parastatals, including monopoly control over international trade, preferential access to transportation, restrictions on movement of foodgrains, and cheap or interest-free credit. Relative to the private sector, the costs of the grain parastatals have been high and are increasing, as special interests and rent-seeking are increasingly dictating their operation. This is being manifested in various forms, such as excessive public stocks in India, vacillating import policies in Indonesia and Pakistan, questionable government foodgrain import decisions in the Philippines, and politically-determined ceiling and floor prices in India. On the other hand, the experiences of Bangladesh and Vietnam, both of which have implemented extensive reforms over the last fifteen years, suggest that reduced government intervention can promote competition in the domestic markets, reduce subsidies, and release funds for development and anti-poverty programs without jeopardizing price stability. The paper concludes that reforms are overdue and the delay in changing the old ways of doing price stabilization will be increasingly wasteful.
- Published
- 2005
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