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Although the COVID‐19 pandemic resulted in about a 24% decline in India's GDP during the April–June 2020 quarter, the nation's agricultural sector, somewhat surprisingly, seems to have done remarkably well. This paper examines whether the public transfer program Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY), announced immediately after the lockdown, benefited farmers in dealing with the COVID shock. Overall, 95% of the smallholders received support from at least one of PMGKY's four components. Direct cash transfers had significantly more impact than in‐kind transfer schemes. The result shows that farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐KISAN, one component of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in buying seeds. In contrast, farmers receiving cash transfers under PM‐UY, another piece of PMGKY, were more likely to invest in fertilizer and pesticides. Finally, smallholders who received benefits from all four components of PMGKY were more likely to invest in purchasing seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides. Findings suggest the fungibility of public cash transfers from the recent PMGKY scheme is significant in alleviating credit constraints and increasing future investments in modern inputs.

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has decimated the lives and livelihoods of people worldwide. The impact of COVID-19 has been especially devastating for low-income families in rural areas of India. Soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced, food insecurity became pervasive in rural areas, as many families relied on daily wage work to fund necessities. By providing cash transfers and additional foodgrains, Indian policymakers acted swiftly to reduce the financial impact on family income and consumption. This paper investigates the factors affecting rural families' participation in the cash transfer program and the effect of government cash transfers on food insecurity. Results indicate that India's government cash transfer program decreased moderate food insecurity by 2.4% and severe food insecurity by about 0.92% [EconLit Citations: O12, I31, I32, I38].

While the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) is widely considered a successful market institution, very little rigorous empirical investigation has been done on it. This paper contributes to filling this knowledge gap. Using a unique set of spatially disaggregated prices for five different coffee varieties, we examine how the ECX has influenced the dynamics of international and domestic prices for coffee, the largest traded commodity in terms of trade value on the exchange floor. We follow a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach to assess the extent of market interdependence (conditional correlations) and volatility transmission. We also evaluate structural changes in price dynamics over time. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular media stories, the ECX’s success in strengthening coffee price relationships has been limited. We discuss the underlying reasons and implications of this finding.

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one-third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.

Summary It has now become almost a stylized fact that sustained agricultural growth is central to rapid poverty reduction and economic development. Yet, world poverty is largely concentrated in the agrarian societies, which have the potential for agricultural productivity growth. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan African countries, where the gaps between potential and actual yields remain high. Minimizing this gap through the promotion of modern inputs—such as fertilizer and modern seeds—has been at the core of almost all development strategies in Ethiopia. Among other initiatives, the country has promoted microfinance institutions and member-owned financial cooperatives to alleviate credit constraints of the smallholder farmers. This paper analyzes the impacts of these institutions. Using household survey data and a propensity-score-matching technique, we examine the effects that institutional financial services have on farmers’ adoption of agricultural technology in Ethiopia. The results suggest that access to institutional finance has a significant positive impact on both the adoption and extent of technology use. However, when impacts are disaggregated by type of financial institution and farm size, heterogeneities are observed. In particular, financial cooperatives have a greater impact on technology adoption than microfinance institutions, and the results appear to vary depending on farm size and types of inputs. The paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption of modern agricultural inputs.

Summary Using data from multiple sources, we show that the real wages in Bangladesh, particularly in rural areas and for female workers, have accelerated in recent years. Real wage escalation is likely the result of a combination of more job opportunities in the nonfarm sector, especially in the manufacturing sector, and a greater inflow of remittances, primarily from unskilled male workers overseas. Since physical labor is the most important asset for the poor, the escalation in real wages has boosted the poor’s earnings, helping them improve their livelihood and escape poverty.

Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has nearly quintupled since official elimination of direct input subsidies in the early 1990s. During this time, policies changed from liberalization, with both private and public sector participation, to a government monopoly over imports along with exclusive marketing through farmers’ cooperatives. This article presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, as well as costs of the government's fertilizer promotion policies. Results suggest that (a) irrespective of the methods of calculation, fertilizer use in major cereal is profitable; (b) while there is no official subsidy program, fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs—estimated at US$40 million per year since 2008; and (c) there has been a mismatch between government's policy targets and the effective fertilizer demand, resulting in large carryover stock with estimated implicit costs of US$30 million per year during 2008–2011. Areas of policy attention, value chain improvements, and ongoing efforts to improve for fertilizer use and profitability are discussed.

Using case materials from four major cereal growing countries in Asia (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan), the article analyzes key aspects of agricultural input policies in Asia. Results suggest that Asian policies differ from the current wave of African input subsidy programs in three important ways: (i) instead of focusing mostly on seed and chemical fertilizer, input promotion in Asia involved a package approach involving investments in agricultural RD (ii) farmers in three of four countries paid higher prices (net taxed) for fertilizer during the height of the green revolution, suggesting that it was the profitability, not the subsidy, that was central to increasing fertilizer use; and (iii) Asian countries did not target input subsidies, but given leakage and diversion estimates of targeted programs, it is unclear whether targeting would have been more cost-effective. Both continents have two challenges in common: degradation of soil health and increasingly larger shares of public spending on input subsidies. The first challenge calls for paying attentions to improving fertilizer use efficiency, which is an achievable target, with high pay off in the long run. The other challenge is now a historical fact—that is, once introduced, subsidies are hard to eliminate, even if they no longer contribute to agricultural productivity growth.

Input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in Africa. Ten African governments spend roughly US$1 billion annually on input subsidy programs (ISPs), amounting to 28.6% of their public expenditures on agriculture. This article reviews the microlevel evidence on ISPs undertaken since the mid 2000s. We examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries, crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs, the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems, and finally the impact of ISPs on food price levels and poverty rates. The weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits. Findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices—factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in Africa—indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to R&D and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction. However, because ISPs enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents, they are likely to remain on the African landscape for the foreseeable future. Hence, the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy. Among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently. The challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable.

During the world food price crisis of 2007–08, rice importing countries suffered through a sharp increase in international rice prices and disruptions in supply as several rice exporters restricted trade to mitigate their domestic price increases. Perhaps no country was more affected by these disruptions than Bangladesh. Our analysis shows that prior to the 2007 crisis, when Bangladesh imported an average of nearly 1 million tons of rice per year from India, domestic wholesale prices of rice in Bangladesh were co-integrated with import parity prices of subsidized Below Poverty Line (BPL) rice. When in mid-2007, India sharply curtailed exports, rice prices surged in Bangladesh. Model simulations show that a relatively small increase in private consumer stocks equivalent to about 2 weeks of normal consumption could account for the large surge in domestic prices in Bangladesh and that an additional 300,000 tons (in addition to approximately 700,000 tons of net rice distribution that actually occurred) would have been sufficient to stabilize prices in the November 2007–April 2008 period. The Bangladesh analysis thus shows that in spite of the uncertainty in international markets, careful planning, timely interventions and openness to trade can substantially reduce requirements for public stockholding.

Summary Using case studies from six Asian countries, this paper assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in food grain markets, documents the existing policies and regulatory supports to grain marketing parastatals, examines benefits and costs of parastatals, and summarizes lessons from reforms and reduced interventions. The results suggest that commonly cited rationales for food market intervention are no longer convincing, the costs of parastatals-led price stabilization are staggering, and the price policies are being dictated by special interests. The evidences from the early reformers indicate that reduced intervention can promote competition, reduce subsidies, and release funds for development and anti-poverty programs—all without jeopardizing price stability.

Governments in most Asian countries used grain price stabilization as a major policy instrument when they embarked on promoting the Green Revolution. The art of public policy-making is to know when to introduce government interventions and when to withdraw. The common mistake is to forget the withdrawal part, leading to unsustainably high costs – a dilemma that most Asian countries are confronted with today. Analyzing case studies of six Asian countries, which have tried to tackle the task in different ways with varying degrees of success, eight key lessons can be learned from the more than three decades of food price stabilization in Asia. Times have changed: policies and public agencies that may have been appropriate 30 years ago are not optimal today. Private institutions have strengthened significantly – or could be strengthened significantly – and should be entrusted for many of the functions that parastatals, or other government agencies, have traditionally performed. Holding on to old practices delays reaping the benefits that changing current policies have to offer.

"Using weekly price data for two sub-periods, this paper analyzes how Ugandan maize market performed in the years following agricultural market liberalization in the early 1990's. For each time period, the extent of integration, causality among spatial locations, and relative importance of spatial locations in price formation are examined. The extent of integration, defined as a set of markets that shares common long-run price information, and the causal relationships among markets have been tested within Johansen's cointegration framework. The relative importance of each market locations is examined by estimating the common trend coefficients with a dynamic vector moving average model. Results indicate that, while there has been an overall improvement in spatial price responsiveness, the northern districts, which have been in a state of insurgency since 1986, continue to lack integration with major consumption markets in the central region. Causality test results show that compared to the 1993-1994-time period, representing the early years of liberalization, interdependence among markets has increased. Estimates of the common integrating trend suggest that public policies, such as price stabilization, can have desired impacts by targeting a small number of locations. These results are consistent with recently conducted household and market surveys in the country." Author's Abstract