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Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Shrubland ecosystems across Europe face a range of threats including the potential impacts of climate change. Within the INCREASE project, six shrubland ecosystems along a European climatic gradient were exposed to ecosystem-level year-round experimental nighttime warming and long-term, repeated growing season droughts. We quantified the ecosystem level CO 2 fluxes, i.e. gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), in control and treatment plots and compared the treatment effects along the Gaussen aridity index. In general, GPP exhibited higher sensitivity to drought and warming than R eco and was found to be the dominant contributor to changes in overall NEE. Across the climate gradient, northern sites were more likely to have neutral to positive responses of NEE, i.e. increased CO 2 uptake, to drought and warming partly due to seasonal rewetting. While an earlier investigation across the same sites showed a good cross-site relationship between soil respiration responses to climate over the Gaussen aridity index, the responses of GPP, R eco and NEE showed a more complex response pattern suggesting that site-specific ecosystem traits, such as different growing season periods and plant species composition, affected the overall response pattern of the ecosystem-level CO 2 fluxes. We found that the observed response patterns of GPP and R eco rates at the six sites could be explained well by the hypothesized position of each site on site-specific soil moisture response curves of GPP/R eco fluxes. Such relatively simple, site-specific analyses could help improve our ability to explain observed CO 2 flux patterns in larger meta-analyses as well as in larger-scale model upscaling exercises and thereby help improve our ability to project changes in ecosystem CO 2 fluxes in response to future climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The present work has not been submitted elsewhere for publication, in whole or in part, and all the authors listed have approved the submission of the manuscript. There is no interest conflict regarding this paper. All the finance supporting organization and projects are acknowledged., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Terrestrial ecosystems have strong feedback to atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, the long-term whole life cycle dynamics of ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and overall balance in some ecosystem types, such as heathland ecosystems, have not been thoroughly explored. We studied the changes in ecosystem CO 2 flux components and overall C balance over a full ecosystem lifecycle in stands of Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull by using a chronosequence of 0, 12, 19 and 28 years after vegetation cutting. Overall, the ecosystem C balance was highly nonlinear over time and exhibited a sinusoidal-like curvature of C sink/source change over the three-decade timescale. After cutting, plant-related C flux components of gross photosynthesis (P G ) , aboveground autotrophic respiration (R aa ) and belowground autotrophic respiration (R ba ) were higher at the young age (12 years) than at middle (19 years) and old (28 years) ages. The young ecosystem was a C sink (12 years: -0.374 kg C m -2  year -1 ) while it became a C source with aging (19 years: 0.218 kg C m -2  year -1 ) and when dying (28 years: 0.089 kg C m -2  year -1 ). The post-cutting C compensation point was observed after four years, while the cumulative C loss in the period after cutting had been compensated by an equal amount of C uptake after seven years. Annual ecosystem C payback from the ecosystem to the atmosphere started after 16 years. This information may be used directly for optimizing vegetation management practices for maximal ecosystem C uptake capacity. Our study highlights that whole life cycle observational data of changes in C fluxes and balance in ecosystems are important and the ecosystem model needs to take the successional stage and vegetation age into account when projecting component C fluxes, ecosystem C balance, and overall feedback to climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The present work has not been submitted elsewhere for publication, in whole or in part, and all the authors listed have approved the submission of the manuscript. There is no interest conflict regarding this paper. All the finance supporting organization and projects are acknowledged., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Researchers use both experiments and observations to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, but results from these contrasting approaches have not been systematically compared for droughts. Using a meta-analysis and accounting for potential confounding factors, we demonstrate that aboveground biomass responded only about half as much to experimentally imposed drought events as to natural droughts. Our findings indicate that experimental results may underestimate climate change impacts and highlight the need to integrate results across approaches., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

A fundamental challenge in experimental ecology is to capture nonlinearities of ecological responses to interacting environmental drivers. Here, we demonstrate that gradient designs outperform replicated designs for detecting and quantifying nonlinear responses. We report the results of (1) multiple computer simulations and (2) two purpose-designed empirical experiments. The findings consistently revealed that unreplicated sampling at a maximum number of sampling locations maximised prediction success (i.e. the R² to the known truth) irrespective of the amount of stochasticity and the underlying response surfaces, including combinations of two linear, unimodal or saturating drivers. For the two empirical experiments, the same pattern was found, with gradient designs outperforming replicated designs in revealing the response surfaces of underlying drivers. Our findings suggest that a move to gradient designs in ecological experiments could be a major step towards unravelling underlying response patterns to continuous and interacting environmental drivers in a feasible and statistically powerful way., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.