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Clarifying the spatiotemporal changes in the supply and demand of water-related ecosystem services (WESs) can provide comprehensive support information for ecological governance decisions. However, the spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of WESs is often overlooked, resulting in a lack of targeted decision-making. At the grid scale, while preserving both natural and social attributes, this study quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in the supply and demand of WESs in the Southern River Basin from 2000 to 2020. Ecological zoning was performed based on the temporal changes in WESs supply and demand. The OPGD model was used to investigate the impacts of socio-economic and natural factors on different WESs supply factors and further explore the spatial correlation of WESs supply and demand changes in different zones. The results show that there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the changes in WESs supply and demand. Economic belts and megacities have experienced remarkable changes, with WESs supply decreasing and WESs demand increasing. WESs demand changes significantly affect WESs supply changes. The supply of WESs in all zones is influenced by WESs demand. In the high supply–low demand zone, WY has the highest explanatory power for WESs demand changes. From the high supply–middle demand zone to the low supply–middle demand zone and then to the high supply–high demand zone, the explanatory power of PE for WESs demand changes gradually increases. As WESs demand starts from the middle level, HAI gradually dominates WESs demand changes. The increase in land use changes may promote the impact of WESs demand changes on WESs supply changes. This study contributes to incorporating the supply and demand changes of WESs and their correlations into the ecological protection and restoration system, providing a new perspective and method for regional sustainable management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the multiscale impacts and drivers of urban agglomeration landscape patterns for ecosystem services (ESs), especially water‐related ecosystem services (WESs), is essential for the development of regional ecological management. However, the multiscale impacts and driving mechanisms of urban agglomeration landscape patterns for ESs have not been adequately explained. In this study, multivariate data were employed, and the InVEST model, trend test method, coupled GeoDetector and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) method were utilized to comprehensively explore the spatial and temporal changes in landscape patterns and WESs in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRDUA) at various grid and administrative scales from 1990 to 2020 and to determine the driving mechanisms affecting WESs. The results indicated that the variation characteristics of landscape patterns and WESs in the PRDUA were consistent, forming a binary spatial structure of core and peripheral areas in an inverted "U" shape around the estuary of the Pearl River. The relationship between landscape patterns and WESs weakened with the increase of scale, and the correlation coefficient decreased by approximately 0.10 from 5 km to 10 km grid scale. Additionally, precipitation (PRE) was the main factor controlling WESs changes in the PRDUA, explaining more than 50% of the changes in WESs, and the regression coefficients ranged from 0.0825 to 0.1584. Changes in WESs were the result of the combined effects of natural factors, including PRE, landscape pattern, elevation, slope, and socioeconomic factors, such as population and gross domestic product (GDP). Overall, these findings could contribute to optimizing regional landscape patterns and fostering sustainable development of the ecological environment in urban agglomerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The megacity expansion that continues to occur in developing countries is an unavoidable trend at this stage, yet there exists a dearth of knowledge regarding the comprehensive impacts of urban expansion on water-related ecosystem services (WESs) within these areas. Taking Chengdu and Wuhan, two megacities in the upper and middle Yangtze River Economic Belt in China as the study area, this study first compare the magnitude, rate, spatial divergence, and the mode of urban expansion; then evaluate its impact on three typical types of WESs, i.e., water yield (WY), water purification (WP), and habitat quality (HQ) using spatial econometric models and bivariate Moran’s I. The research findings show that Chengdu’s suburbs tend to experience edge-based expansion along rivers, while Wuhan’s city center also spreads outward in edge-based from the river junctions of the Yangtze and Han rivers. Urban expansion negatively impacts all three types of WESs, and its effect in Chengdu is greater than in Wuhan. WY in the suburbs of Wuhan is severely impacted by urban expansion, while WP in the suburbs of Chengdu is as well. HQ in Chengdu’s city center suffers the largest negative impact. The study also reveals a spatial spillover effect of urban expansion, with extensive negative externalities on all WESs in the city centers of both cities and positive externalities on WY and WP in the southwestern suburbs of Chengdu. Based on these results, we suggest that megacities in developing countries should focus on protecting HQ in the city center and limiting cross-regional edge-based expansion in suburbs. Attention should be paid to the water-ecological protection of the suburb rivers. City managers should consider ecological zoning geared toward the conservation of WESs to address the adverse impacts of expansion.

Quantifying water-related ecosystem services (WES) helps to secure limited and valuable water resources sustainably. Mainstreaming these ecosystem services into policy and decision-making requires accurate information at the local level. This paper aims to quantify provisioning and regulating freshwater ecosystem services potential in the Kangchenjunga Landscape using a hydro-ecological model. This study is the first to use the J2000 hydrological model to estimate annual and seasonal WES. The model output was validated against snow-cover and river discharge, after conducting a sensitivity analysis of the input parameter. High precipitation and low evapotranspiration resulted in rich water availability in the landscape. It was found that the precipitation amount in the landscape is highly seasonal, resulting in high variation in water availability. Snowfall, accounting for 4% of the total precipitation still plays an important role in regulating water resources. Nearly 100% of the discharge during the dry period originates from groundwater and melt runoff. This study highlights the importance of the presence of snow and glacier to sustain the ecosystem in the landscape. This model-derived information could further be used for decision-making and evaluating the impact of climatic and land use changes. HIGHLIGHTS The study quantified WES potential in the Kangchenjunga Landscape.; The J2000 model provided important insight into the hydrological dynamics at the landscape level.; Potential provisioning and regulating ecosystem services are quantified.; Snow plays a vital role in maintaining ecosystem services in the landscape.;

Water-related ecosystem services (WES) are paramount for the development of sustainable urban agglomerations. The impact of construction land pattern (CLP) changes on WES varies by spatial scale; however, a comprehensive multi-scale analysis of CLPs and their impact on WES in urban agglomerations is still lacking. Focusing on the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China, this study investigated the CLPs using multidimensional measures (intensity, complexity, and aggregation) at various scales: watershed, county, township, and grid. Using geographically weighted regression (GWR), the multi-scale impacts of the multidimensional CLP on WES (including water yield, soil retention, water purification, and habitat quality) were assessed and the scale effects and spatial heterogeneity were explored. The key findings include the following: (1) Significant changes in the CLPs within the main stream of the Qingyi and Minjiang watersheds have been observed over the past two decades. (2) The CCUA forms a network of construction land connecting all cities, with Chengdu and Chongqing as the main nodes. (3) Construction land complexity demonstrates a concentric distribution, with increasing complexity from the center outward and simplification toward unurbanized areas. (4) Substantial local and regional impacts of the CLPs on WES were found across multiple scales within the CCUA. (5) Increasing the complexity and aggregation of construction land facilitates the protection of WES in rapidly urbanizing areas (e.g., megacities), whereas the opposite is true in small cities and remote mountainous areas. This research enhances our understanding of construction land dynamics and their implications for WES, contributing vital insights into water-related ecological safeguarding and fostering sustainable regional development in urban agglomerations. • Multi-scale analyses were conducted across watersheds, administration and grid perspectives. • CCUA forms an inter-city network with Chengdu and Chongqing as key nodes. • Effects of multidimensional changes in CLP on WES are scale-dependent. • The complexity and aggregation of CLP benefits WES protection in megacities, but challenges it in remote areas. • Implications for construction land management and water-related ecological protection in CCUA at multi-levels were proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying water-related ecosystem services (WES) helps to secure limited and valuable water resources sustainably. Mainstreaming these ecosystem services into policy and decision-making requires accurate information at the local level. This paper aims to quantify provisioning and regulating freshwater ecosystem services potential in the Kangchenjunga Landscape using a hydro-ecological model. This study is the first to use the J2000 hydrological model to estimate annual and seasonal WES. The model output was validated against snow-cover and river discharge, after conducting a sensitivity analysis of the input parameter. High precipitation and low evapotranspiration resulted in rich water availability in the landscape. It was found that the precipitation amount in the landscape is highly seasonal, resulting in high variation in water availability. Snowfall, accounting for 4% of the total precipitation still plays an important role in regulating water resources. Nearly 100% of the discharge during the dry period originates from groundwater and melt runoff. This study highlights the importance of the presence of snow and glacier to sustain the ecosystem in the landscape. This model-derived information could further be used for decision-making and evaluating the impact of climatic and land use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development faces the crucial challenge of safeguarding water-related ecosystem services, particularly in arid regions. However, scale-dependent interactions and their influencing factors remain unclear. This study addresses this local gap on the regional level by focusing on ecologically vulnerable mountain areas, employing a comprehensive quantitative and spatial analysis approach, utilizing Spearman coefficient, trade-off/synergy index, and trade-off/synergy criterion, to examine water-related ecosystem services interactions across scales in arid area. Additionally, a Geographical detector was used to identify dominant natural and human activity factors. Finally, we determined ecologically optimal and worst areas and proposed spatial planning and management recommendations for ecological protection and restoration. Key results indicate that: (1) From 1995 to 2015, water yield and nutrient delivery ratio exhibited a declining trend, while soil retention showed an increasing trend, with the weakest nutrient delivery ratio function in the reserve. (2) At the grid scale, there were 2 trade-offs among water-related ecosystem services in 1995, which decreased to 1 trade-off in 2005 and 2015. The synergistic was most prominent near Qinghai Lake, while the trade-off was most obvious in the western mountainous areas. Conversely, the county scale demonstrated synergy. (3) NDVI, slope, and precipitation dominantly influence the spatial heterogeneity patterns of soil retention_water yield, soil retention_nutrient delivery ratio, and water yield_nutrient delivery ratio, respectively, with natural factors outweighing human activities in impacting water-related ecosystem services. This study contributes to the improvement and optimization of ecological environment management decisions. • Examines trade-offs among water-related ecosystem services at varying scales. • County scale may obscure trade-offs observable at raster scale. • Stronger correlations among water-related ecosystem services with larger scales. • Significant trade-off is identified between soil retention_nutrient delivery ratio. • Natural factors drive dominant water-related ecosystem services variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • 17 typical watersheds distributed across China are selected for comparative analysis. • Coupled climate and land-use scenarios are considered for prediction. • Climate change contributes > 90 % to water yields in 15 out of the 17 watersheds. • Water purification services in 9 watersheds are mainly affected by land-use change. Water-related ecosystem services (WES) critical to anthropogenic-related water security are being severely degraded, primarily due to climate and land-use change. Clarifying future trends in WES (i.e., water yield and water purification services) will contribute to water resource sustainability. However, most existing studies are single case studies and rarely consider the combined impacts of climate change and land-use change on ecosystem services, resulting in patterns that cannot be adequately summarized. In this study, the "Annual Water Yield" module of the InVEST model was used to estimate water yield and the "Nutrient Delivery Ratio" module was used to analyze water purification services. In order to compare the impacts of different natural conditions and geographic locations on water ecosystem services, 17 typical watersheds throughout China were selected as study areas. Coupled scenarios were also considered when setting climate and land-use scenarios to predict prospective (2020–2100) evolutionary trends in WES. The response of WES under different scenarios was also assessed. Results show that climate change is more likely to affect water yield services than water purification services. The impact of land use on water purification services is more pronounced than its impact on water yield services. Climate change contributed > 90 % to water yields in 15 out of the 17 watersheds, contributed 79.4 % in the Hei River watershed, while only contributing 11.2 % in the Yarkant River watershed. The influence of climate change on total nitrogen (TN) output in eight of the watersheds was greater than that of land-use change, especially in the Min River and Mintuo River watersheds, for which the contribution was > 95 %. Furthermore, water purification services in nine of the watersheds were more affected by land-use change, especially in the Dongting Lake and Hei River watersheds, for which the contribution was > 95 %. The aim of this study is to assist in the planning of sound water resource measures while developing sustainable management strategies to help relevant water resource sectors cope with prospective risks and challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We proposed a framework integrating SSP-RCP scenarios, PLUS model and InVEST model. • The trends of land use and WESs under the three future SSP-RCP scenarios were different. • It was found that LUC was not the main influencing factor for the change of WESs in the PYLB. A scientific understanding of the trends of water-related ecosystem services (WESs) under different scenarios is crucial to improving WESs and maintaining ecological security. However, there is a lack of high-resolution land use simulation and assessment of WESs under the SSP-RCP scenarios, and the impacts of different land-use change (LUC) on WESs are not clear. This study focused on the Poyang Lake Basin (PYLB), utilizing the SSP-RCP scenarios, the PLUS model and the InVEST model to explore the dynamic changes of land use and WESs historically and in the future, and to reveal the impacts of specific LUC on WESs from 2000 to 2020. The results demonstrated that: (1) The forest land increased under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios but increased first and then decreased under SSP5-8.5 scenarios; Cropland increased significantly under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and the construction land showed an expansion trend under the three scenarios. (2) From 2000 to 2020, only the water purification capacity decreased, while the rest of the WESs increased. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the overall benefits of the WESs in the PYLB were the highest. (3) Between 2000 and 2020, deforestation in the PYLB brought about the greatest increase in the water yield (+9.06 × 108 m3). The increase in the construction land brought about the most water conservation loss (−18.19 × 108 m3). Additionally, the forest expansion and cropland reduction brought about the largest increase in soil retention (+3.94 × 105 t and +4.79 × 105 t) and enhanced water purification, and the opposite was true for deforestation. The conclusions can provide an important basis for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the PYLB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A comparative study of urban expansion and WESs in two megacities was conducted. • In Chengdu, urban expansion had an edge-based pattern that encompassed city-wide. • In Wuhan, suburban expansion is growing rapidly due to leapfrogging development. • Urban expansion has larger negative effects on WY and WP in Wuhan's suburbs. • Ecological land in the megacities' center suffered from indirect loss of WESs. The megacity expansion that continues to occur in developing countries is an unavoidable trend at this stage, yet there exists a dearth of knowledge regarding the comprehensive impacts of urban expansion on water-related ecosystem services (WESs) within these areas. Taking Chengdu and Wuhan, two megacities in the upper and middle Yangtze River Economic Belt in China as the study area, this study first compare the magnitude, rate, spatial divergence, and the mode of urban expansion; then evaluate its impact on three typical types of WESs, i.e., water yield (WY), water purification (WP), and habitat quality (HQ) using spatial econometric models and bivariate Moran's I. The research findings show that Chengdu's suburbs tend to experience edge-based expansion along rivers, while Wuhan's city center also spreads outward in edge-based from the river junctions of the Yangtze and Han rivers. Urban expansion negatively impacts all three types of WESs, and its effect in Chengdu is greater than in Wuhan. WY in the suburbs of Wuhan is severely impacted by urban expansion, while WP in the suburbs of Chengdu is as well. HQ in Chengdu's city center suffers the largest negative impact. The study also reveals a spatial spillover effect of urban expansion, with extensive negative externalities on all WESs in the city centers of both cities and positive externalities on WY and WP in the southwestern suburbs of Chengdu. Based on these results, we suggest that megacities in developing countries should focus on protecting HQ in the city center and limiting cross-regional edge-based expansion in suburbs. Attention should be paid to the water-ecological protection of the suburb rivers. City managers should consider ecological zoning geared toward the conservation of WESs to address the adverse impacts of expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific understanding of the driving relationship between water-related ecosystem services (WESs) and influencing factors, as well as the trade-off and synergy relationship between WESs and WESs, is the premise of reasonably bringing them into management decisions. However, the existing research often separates the above-mentioned two relationships and conducts independent research, which leads to the conflict of research conclusions and cannot be well adopted by managers. Therefore, based on the panel data of Loess Plateau in 2000–2019, this paper uses the simultaneous equation model to combine the two kinds of relationships existing between WESs and influencing factors, establish a feedback loop, and reveal the interactions mechanism of WESs nexus. The results show that: (1) The fragmentation of land use leads to the uneven spatial-temporal distribution of WESs. (2) Vegetation factors and land factors are the main driving factors that affect WESs, and the impact of climate factors on WESs is decreasing year by year. (3) The increase of water yield ecosystem services will lead to the obvious increase in soil export ecosystem services, and there is a synergistic relationship between soil export ecosystem services and nitrogen export ecosystem services. The conclusion can provide an important reference for implementing the strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development. • Water-related ecosystem services (WESs) showed obvious spatial heterogeneity. • A set of simultaneous equations of WESs nexus is constructed. • The interactions mechanism of WESs nexus is revealed. • Key driving factors of WESs nexus in the Loess Plateau are determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water-related ecosystem services ( WES). Based on the review of the recent literature, we concluded that climate change will have substantial effects on provisioning, regulating, and cultural WES via changes in the distribution and value of water over space and time. However, the effects of climate change on specific WES will be different depending on the extent of the impact of such changes in the distribution of water and the adaptive capacity of the region's biophysical and social system. The 2015 California drought provides an excellent example of the cascading effects of climate change on multiple WES. Declining streamflow and the concomitant rising stream temperatures have immediately threatened the provision of drinking water and hydropower generation and threatened the health of ecosystems that rely on water. The secondary effects of drought on WES are widespread across different water-dependent industries, including water-based recreation. The findings of our study also show that the impacts of climate change will differ by location, suggesting a need for a place-based flexible climate adaptation strategy. We also suggest that future research directions include the examination of: (1) the multiple cascading effects of climate change on potential synergies and tradeoffs among different WES, (2) the specific effects of changing climate and the connectivity of WES from upstream to downstream WES users, (3) the changing value of WES over space and time under changing climates, and (4) the effectiveness of various climate adaptation measures on the whole suite of WES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • UL and WES in YREB present an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018. • CCD exhibits a pattern of high in the east and low in the west. • Coupling relationship at most counties became more coordinated over time. • Land use intensity, nighttime light intensity and NDVI are determinants of the CCD. • Combining GeoDetector and GWR enables better analysis of driving mechanisms. "Taking the county as an important carrier to promote urbanization" has been identified as China's most significant strategic planning for urban development. Exploring the level of coordination among both water-related ecosystem services (WES) and urbanization and analyzing their social and ecological drivers at the county-level can benefit in tackling various environmental challenges that arise as a result of the urbanization. This research examined the spatial and temporal variation of WES (i.e., water provision, soil conservation, and water purification services) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2018 through the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a quantitative assessment of urbanization level in terms of population, economy, and urban area increase. Then, coupling coordination degree (CCD) model was then used to assess the extent of coordinated growth of WES and urbanization. Finally, the GeoDetector model and the regionally weighted regression model were used to investigate the influence of multiple factors on the CCD The findings indicate that: 1) Each county unit in the YREB had a significantly higher level of urbanization from 2000 to 2018, with hotspots located primarily in the Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and in the vicinity of Wuhan and Chengdu. 2) The WES in the YREB varied considerably between years, but exhibited an upward tendency. 3) The CCD of WES and urbanization in the eastern portion of the YREB is higher than that in the western portion. The level of CCD was increasing but overall low. 4) Land use intensity, nighttime light intensity, and NDVI were the primary determinants of the CCD between WES and urbanization, with considerable heterogeneity in the driving forces between locations. To improve the coordination level between WES and urbanization, differentiated urbanization development schemes and ecological protection measures were proposed based on the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Water-related ecosystem services (WES) were integrated into priority area selection. • The hydrological/hydrochemical/hydroecological related WES varied by climate change. • Conservation efficiencies of priority areas decreased as climate change accelerated. • Factors impacting priority area selection changed in upper, middle, and down basins. Water scarcity and quality deterioration often occur in economically developing regions, particularly during crises related to climate change or increasing human activities. The assignment of priority areas is considered a suitable strategy for stakeholders to mitigate water crises and cope with water stress. However, most studies focused on protecting water bodies in priority areas and did not consider the hydrological/hydrochemical/hydroecological interaction between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We divided a watershed into manageable areas to select priority areas for multiple water-related ecosystem services (WES-priority areas), considering the aquatic-terrestrial interactions to predict the effects of climate change and human activities. The proposed novelty framework couples the soil and water assessment tool and maximum entropy models with a systematic conservation planning tool. It uses the gross domestic product as the economic cost to assess dynamic changes and social-environmental driving forces. A case study is conducted in the Xiangjiang River basin, a modified watershed of the main tributary of the Yangtze River, China. Results revealed that most of the WES-priority areas were located in the southern and southeastern regions of the upper reaches in all climatic scenarios. The conservation efficiency of the WES-priority areas decreased from 1.264 to 0.867 in 50 years, indicating that the level of protection declined as climate change accelerated. The precipitation was positively correlated with the WES-priority area selection in all climate scenarios. The temperature was only negatively correlated with the WES-priority areas when it exceeded 20 °C, and this effect became more pronounced as the temperature increased. The topographic factors had the most crucial impacts on the upstream priority areas selection. The water flow regulation service played a leading role in identifying WES-priority areas in the middle reaches because the priority areas' distribution here was closely related to the water yield, and its proportion decreased with the acceleration of global warming. The number of WES-priority areas was relatively low in the lower reaches. It was positively associated with the gross domestic product and the amount of built-up land. The proposed framework for WES-priority areas identification enables a sound trade-off between environmental protection and economic development. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Effects of landscape composition on WESs are larger than those of configuration. • Landscape pattern only changes the intensity, not the dominant relationship. • There is a non-linear relationship between landscape pattern indicators and WESs. • The results may be misunderstood by the method of space-for-time. The transformation of surface landscapes by human activities is the main driving factor that affects changes in ecosystem functions and ecological processes, significantly influencing the ability of regional water ecosystems to deliver products and services to human society. However, the relationship between landscape heterogeneity and multiple water ecosystem services and the mechanisms of dynamic change remain unclear, posing challenges for managing and enhancing ecosystem services through landscape management decisions. Taking the Zishui basin as an example, this study aimed to clarify the impact of landscape heterogeneity on water-related ecosystem services and relationships by analyzing the relative importance and comprehensive impacts of landscape structure composition and landscape spatial configuration changes on three ecosystem services (water production, soil conservation, and water purification). These services were quantified for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 using the InVEST model. Furthermore, quantitative indices were constructed to assess the impact of landscape heterogeneity on water ecosystem services. The results show that annual water yield and soil conservation increased at first and then decreased from 2000 to 2018, with 24.48% and 22.50% overall decreases, respectively. In contrast, the total export of N and P decreased at first and then increased, with 3.65% and 5.18% overall increases, respectively. The contribution indices of landscape pattern changes to water yield, soil conservation, nitrogen export, and phosphorus export were 0.04%–2.02%, 0.08 × 10−2%–0.32 × 10−2%, 13.57%–70.05%, and 11.01%–68.22%, respectively, showing interannual and spatial differences. The impact of landscape pattern change on water-related ecosystem services mainly reflects intensity change, which does not change the dominant relationships. Both landscape composition and configuration have impacts on water-related ecosystem services, but the effects of composition are larger than those of configuration. Among them, the proportions of cultivated land, woodland, and construction land, along with changes in Shannon's diversity index (SHDI), patch density (PD), and edge density (ED) have obvious influences on water-related ecosystem services and show nonlinear relationships. In summary, the impacts of landscape heterogeneity indicators on water-related ecosystem services have obvious category differences, interannual changes, and spatial differences. This study provides new insight into the driving effects of landscape pattern change on the supply of water-related ecosystem services and will provide a reference for practical land management applications and policy formulation of water ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key challenge to the sustainability and security of grassland capacity is the protection of water-related ecosystem services (WESs). With the change of land use, the supply of aquatic ecosystem services has changed, and the grassland-carrying capacity has been affected. However, the correlation mechanism between WESs and the grassland-carrying capacity is not clear. In this study, we used the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model to evaluate the impact of land-use change on WESs, and made a tradeoff analysis between WESs and grassland-carrying capacity. Considering that the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was an important grassland vegetation zone, which was a milestone for the development of animal husbandry in China, HRB was taken as a case. The main findings are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution of WESs shows the dissimilation rule, the upper reaches are the main water yield area, the soil retention is weakening in the middle and lower reaches, and the pollution has further increased in the middle and upper reaches. (2) The carrying capacity of animal husbandry decreased in the upper reaches, increased in Shandan County and Zhangye City in the middle reaches, and decreased sharply in other regions. (3) There was a positive correlation between the livestock-carrying capacity and nitrogen export in 2018, which was increasing. As the change of land use has changed the evapotranspiration structure, WESs have undergone irreversible changes. Meanwhile, the development of large-scale irrigated farmland and human activities would be the source of a further intensification of regional soil erosion and water pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to trade off the WESs and animal husbandry under land-use change. This paper revealed how WESs changed from 2000 to 2018, the characteristics of the changes in the spatial and temporal distribution, and the carrying capacity. It aims to provide a scientific basis for coordinating the contradiction between grassland and livestock resources, improving the regional ecological security situation, and carrying out ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Water-related ecosystem services were evaluated under four LULC scenarios and two climate scenarios. • The RCP4.5 scenario reduced water yield, while the RCP8.5 scenario increased water yield. • Climate change will be the major driver of water yield. • Land use/cover change will be the major driver of water purification. • The returning farmland to lakes scenario reduced water yield but increased water purification. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes alter ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect human well-being. The impacts of management scenarios and different climate scenarios on water-related ecosystem services are uncertain in the context of future LULC and climate change interactions. Therefore, here, we analyzed the impact of future climate change and land management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services by 2030 in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ). Water yield and water purification were modelled for 2030, and the models were built on LULC scenarios and climate scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We used the Beijing Normal University Earth system model (BNU-ESM) for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and we simulated four LULC scenarios using the future LULC simulation (FLUS) model. Four 2030 LULC scenarios, including rapid urbanization (RUS), farmland protection (FPS), ecological protection (EPS), and returning farmland to lakes scenario (RLS), were designed and compared with the year 2015 as the baseline. We found that the water yield of each LULC scenario under RCP4.5 had a decreasing trend: 10.41% (RUS), 12.43% (FPS), 13.69% (EPS), and 13.83% (RLS). However, the water yield increased under RCP8.5 and were 5.92%, 3.77%, 2.35%, and 2.18%, respectively. Water purification increased more in all LULC scenarios under the RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. The water purification of all land-use scenarios from small to large was FPS, RUS, EPS, and RLS. Our results indicated that climate change had a greater impact than LULC on water yield, but LULC change had a greater impact on water purification. Our results provide scientific guidance for decision makers to develop better LULC policies to achieve sustainable water resource management in watershed-dominated regions. The integrated assessment approach to climate and land management also applies to other conditions to help achieve sustainable management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Water balance partitioning is used to assess water-related ecosystem services. • We propose a set of indicators including both demand- and supply-side perspectives. • Water balance in forest and pasture areas of the Amazon is assessed with 3 models. • Rainforests are important green water suppliers compared to deforested lands. • Forests greatly support provisioning, regulating and supporting ecosystem services. Rainforests ensure fundamental water-related ecosystem services that are currently threatened by land-use change, in particular deforestation. Quantitative assessments of water-related ecosystem services have traditionally focused on the benefits linked to direct water availability for humans. Under this perspective, forests have been considered as water consumers, due to high interception and transpiration rates that reduce water flows available to downstream human activities. In contrast, their role as water suppliers through transpiration from tree canopies has often been neglected. Integrating this second perspective into assessments of water-related ecosystem services from forests and other land covers is key to providing a comprehensive support to decision-making processes on land-use change. In addition, specific indicators are necessary to incorporate the contribution of the different water balance components into ecosystem service assessment. In this paper, we investigate the use of water balance partitioning for the assessment of water-related ecosystem services. We use three water balance models (two existing ones and one developed in this study) and compare, via model simulations, water balance partitioning and water-related ecosystem services of a forested and a deforested area of the Brazilian State of Rondônia. Then, we propose a set of indicators that, based on the outputs of the models, provide a multidimensional characterization of different land-use types. Regardless of the model used, the values of these indicators for the selected case study consistently point out the key role of vegetation in regulating the water cycle. Forests act as effective indirect water suppliers for human activities and are key players in moisture recycling, thanks to high evapotranspiration rates (about 68% of total precipitation). Deforested areas, instead, act as direct suppliers of water flows for human activities due to higher drainage rates (about 50% of total precipitation). The proposed methodology helps highlight the importance of comprehensive water-related ecosystem services assessments. Moreover, the indicators quantitatively support the impact assessment of land-use change on the different processes involved in the water cycle and on human activities relying, directly or indirectly, on these processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the direct manifestation of human activities, land use change is the main driving factor in variations in ecological processes and ecosystem services (ESs). For better land use management in the future, it is essential to evaluate the changes of ESs affected by land use change and identify the relationships among ESs. In this study, four primary water-related ecosystem services (WRESs), including water yield, food production, water purification and soil conservation, were selected to assess the effects of past land use change (1980–2015) on WRESs in the Xiangjiang River Basin, a typical agricultural watershed in southern China. From 1980 to 2015, water yield, food production increased by 1.58% and 44.78%, respectively. And soil conservation was improved with a 13.11% decrease in sediment export. Because of the rapid expansion of agriculture and urbanization from 2000 to 2015, water purification was degraded significantly with the increase in nitrogen export (+22.56%) and phosphorus export (+25.85%). Trade-offs mainly occurred between water purification and other WRESs. Based on the existing ecological problem, four alternative land use scenarios were designed to explore the underlying effects of various land use polices. Among four scenarios, the combined scenario was selected as the optimal scenario because of the greatest improvement in water purification and small negative effect on food production. Our research provides an integrated WRESs trade-offs assessment framework. Moreover, the establishment of multiple land use scenarios based on land suitability evaluation could inform future land use decision-making and water conservation management in the agricultural watershed. Image 1 • We illustrate the changes of water-related ecosystem services (WRESs) based on past land use change using Invest model. • Trade-offs mainly occurred between water purification and other WRESs. • Scenario analysis method is applied to explore the underlying effects of different land use polices. • The combined scenario is optimal for future land use pattern based on trade-off analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]