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IntroductionTracking progress in reaching global targets for reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires accurately collected population based longitudinal data. However, most African countries lack such data because of weak or non-existent civil registration systems. We used data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUDSS) to estimate NCD mortality trends over time and to explore the determinants of NCD mortality.MethodsDeaths identified in the NUHDSS were followed up with a verbal autopsy to determine the signs and symptoms preceding the death. Causes of death were then assigned using InSilicoVA algorithm. We calculated the rates of NCD mortality in the whole NUHDSS population between 2008 and 2017, looking at how these changed over time. We then merged NCD survey data collected in 2008, which contains information on potential determinants of NCD mortality in a sub-sample of the NUHDSS population, with follow up information from the full NUHDSS including whether any of the participants died of an NCD or non-NCD cause. Poisson regression models were used to identify independent risk factors (broadly categorized as socio-demographic, behavioural and physiological) for NCD mortality, as well as non-NCD mortality.ResultsIn the total NUHDSS population of adults age 18 and over, 23% were assigned an NCD as the most likely cause of death. There was evidence that NCD mortality decreased over the study period, with rates of NCD mortality dropping from 1.32 per 1000 person years in 2008–10 (95% CI: 1.13–1.54) to 0.93 per 1000 person years in 2014–17 (95% CI: 0.80–1.08). Of 5115 individuals who participated in the NCD survey in 2008, 421 died during the follow-up period of which 43% were attributed to NCDs. Increasing age, lower education levels, ever smoking and having high blood pressure were identified as independent determinants of NCD mortality in multivariate analyses.ConclusionWe found that NCDs account for one-quarter of mortality in Nairobi slums, although we document a reduction in the rate of NCD mortality over time. This may be attributed to increased surveillance and introduction of population-wide NCD interventions and health system improvements from research activities in the slums. To achieve further decline there is a need to strengthen health systems to respond to NCD care and prevention along with addressing social factors such as education.

Preterm birth is the leading cause of infant death worldwide, but the causes of preterm birth are largely unknown. During the early COVID-19 lockdowns, dramatic reductions in preterm birth were reported; however, these trends may be offset by increases in stillbirth rates. It is important to study these trends globally as the pandemic continues, and to understand the underlying cause(s). Lockdowns have dramatically impacted maternal workload, access to healthcare, hygiene practices, and air pollution - all of which could impact perinatal outcomes and might affect pregnant women differently in different regions of the world. In the international Perinatal Outcomes in the Pandemic (iPOP) Study, we will seize the unique opportunity offered by the COVID-19 pandemic to answer urgent questions about perinatal health. In the first two study phases, we will use population-based aggregate data and standardized outcome definitions to: 1) Determine rates of preterm birth, low birth weight, and stillbirth and describe changes during lockdowns; and assess if these changes are consistent globally, or differ by region and income setting, 2) Determine if the magnitude of changes in adverse perinatal outcomes during lockdown are modified by regional differences in COVID-19 infection rates, lockdown stringency, adherence to lockdown measures, air quality, or other social and economic markers, obtained from publicly available datasets. We will undertake an interrupted time series analysis covering births from January 2015 through July 2020. The iPOP Study will involve at least 121 researchers in 37 countries, including obstetricians, neonatologists, epidemiologists, public health researchers, environmental scientists, and policymakers. We will leverage the most disruptive and widespread “natural experiment” of our lifetime to make rapid discoveries about preterm birth. Whether the COVID-19 pandemic is worsening or unexpectedly improving perinatal outcomes, our research will provide critical new information to shape prenatal care strategies throughout (and well beyond) the pandemic.

Summary Background As the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa matures, evidence about the age distribution of new HIV infections and how this distribution has changed over the epidemic is needed to guide HIV prevention. We aimed to assess trends in age-specific HIV incidence in six population-based cohort studies in eastern and southern Africa, reporting changes in mean age at infection, age distribution of new infections, and birth cohort cumulative incidence. Methods We used a Bayesian model to reconstruct age-specific HIV incidence from repeated observations of individuals' HIV serostatus and survival collected among population HIV cohorts in rural Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, in a collaborative analysis of the ALPHA network. We modelled HIV incidence rates by age, time, and sex using smoothing splines functions. We estimated incidence trends separately by sex and study. We used estimated incidence and prevalence results for 2000–17, standardised to study population distribution, to estimate mean age at infection and proportion of new infections by age. We also estimated cumulative incidence (lifetime risk of infection) by birth cohort. Findings Age-specific incidence declined at all ages, although the timing and pattern of decline varied by study. The mean age at infection was higher in men (cohort mean 27·8–34·6 years) than in women (24·8–29·6 years). Between 2000 and 2017, the mean age at infection per cohort increased slightly: 0·5 to 2·8 years among men and −0·2 to 2·5 years among women. Across studies, between 38% and 63% (cohort medians) of the infections in women were among those aged 15–24 years and between 30% and 63% of infections in men were in those aged 20–29 years. Lifetime risk of HIV declined for successive birth cohorts. Interpretation HIV incidence declined in all age groups and shifted slightly to older ages. Disproportionate new HIV infections occur among women aged 15–24 years and men aged 20–29 years, supporting focused prevention in these groups. However, 40–60% of infections were outside these ages, emphasising the importance of providing appropriate HIV prevention to adults of all ages. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network, http://alpha.lshtm.ac.uk/) brings together ten population-based HIV surveillance sites in eastern and southern Africa, and is coordinated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It was established in 2005 and aims to (i) broaden the evidence base on HIV epidemiology for informing policy, (ii) strengthen the analytical capacity for HIV research, and (iii) foster collaboration between network members. All study sites, some starting in the late 1980s and early 1990s, conduct demographic surveillance in populations that range from approximately 20 to 220 thousand individuals. In addition, they conduct population-based surveys with HIV testing, and verbal autopsy interviews with relatives of deceased residents. ALPHA Network datasets have been used for studying HIV incidence, sexual behaviour and the effects of HIV on mortality, fertility, and household composition. One of the network’s substantive focus areas is the monitoring of AIDS mortality and HIV services coverage in the era of antiretroviral therapy. Service use data are retrospectively recorded in interviews and supplemented by information from record linkage with medical facilities in the surveillance areas. Data access is at the discretion of each of the participating sites, but can be coordinated by the network.

Objective To assess whether pregnancy accelerates HIV disease progression. Methods Studies comparing progression to HIV-related illness, low CD4 count, AIDS-defining illness, HIV-related death, or any death in HIV-infected pregnant and non-pregnant women were included. Relative risks (RR) for each outcome were combined using random effects meta-analysis and were stratified by antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability. Results 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. Pregnancy was not associated with progression to HIV-related illness [summary RR: 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66-2.61], AIDS-defining illness (summary RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.74-1.25) or mortality (summary RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.62-1.53), but there was an association with low CD4 counts (summary RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 0.99-2.02) and HIV-related death (summary RR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.06-2.57). In settings where ART was available, there was no evidence that pregnancy accelerated progress to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses, death and drop in CD4 count. In settings without ART availability, effect estimates were consistent with pregnancy increasing the risk of progression to HIV/AIDS-defining illnesses and HIV-related or all-cause mortality, but there were too few studies to draw meaningful conclusions. Conclusions In the absence of ART, pregnancy is associated with small but appreciable increases in the risk of several negative HIV outcomes, but the evidence is too weak to draw firm conclusions. When ART is available, the effects of pregnancy on HIV disease progression are attenuated and there is little reason to discourage healthy HIV-infected women who desire to become pregnant from doing so.

This study explored the reasons for variation in hospital maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between studies from sub-Saharan Africa.A systematic review was conducted to identify hospital-based studies which reported the prevalence of maternal mortality. An overall MMR from all the hospital-based studies was calculated using a metaanalysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity in the MMR between studies were identified using metaregression techniques.We identified 4243 studies, of which 64 were eligible for inclusion in the metaanalysis. The pooled hospital MMR for sub-Saharan Africa was 957 per 100 000 live births, although there was strong evidence for between-study heterogeneity. Regional estimates varied from 294 per 100 000 live births in Southern Africa to 1338 in Western Africa. Overall, throughout the region, the percentage of skilled birth attendance and type of hospital accounted for 44% of the total variation of the hospital MMR between studies.This paper highlights the need to improve the organisation of health systems and the quality of care that is being offered in health facilities to pregnant women in Africa; and emphasizes the importance of increasing the percentage of skilled birth attendance in the region. In order to achieve the Millennium development goal (MDG) and reduce maternal mortality in the region, particularly in Western Africa, new and stronger approaches are needed.

Summary Background Model-based estimates of the global proportions of maternal deaths that are in HIV-infected women range from 7% to 21%, and the effects of HIV on the risk of maternal death is highly uncertain. We used longitudinal data from the Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA) network to estimate the excess mortality associated with HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods The ALPHA network pooled data gathered between June, 1989 and April, 2012 in six community-based studies in eastern and southern Africa with HIV serological surveillance and verbal-autopsy reporting. Deaths occurring during pregnancy and up to 42 days post partum were defined as pregnancy related. Pregnant or post-partum person-years were calculated for HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women, and HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected mortality rate ratios and HIV-attributable rates were compared between pregnant or post-partum women and women who were not pregnant or post partum. Findings 138 074 women aged 15–49 years contributed 636 213 person-years of observation. 49 568 women had 86 963 pregnancies. 6760 of these women died, 235 of them during pregnancy or the post-partum period. Mean prevalence of HIV infection across all person-years in the pooled data was 17·2% (95% CI 17·0–17·3), but 60 of 118 (50·8%) of the women of known HIV status who died during pregnancy or post partum were HIV infected. The mortality rate ratio of HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected women was 20·5 (18·9–22·4) in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 8·2 (5·7–11·8) in pregnant or post-partum women. Excess mortality attributable to HIV was 51·8 (47·8–53·8) per 1000 person-years in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 11·8 (8·4–15·3) per 1000 person-years in pregnant or post-partum women. Interpretation HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women had around eight times higher mortality than did their HIV-uninfected counterparts. On the basis of this estimate, we predict that roughly 24% of deaths in pregnant or post-partum women are attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that safe motherhood programmes should pay special attention to the needs of HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women. Funding Wellcome Trust, Health Metrics Network (WHO).

Summary Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world. Methods Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods. Findings Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4–17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5–20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (−2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6–7·8). In 2011–14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women. Interpretation The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis. Funding Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.

In regions without complete-coverage civil registration and vital statistics systems there is uncertainty about even the most basic demographic indicators. In such regions the majority of deaths occur outside hospitals and are not recorded. Worldwide, fewer than one-third of deaths are assigned a cause, with the least information available from the most impoverished nations. In populations like this, verbal autopsy (VA) is a commonly used tool to assess cause of death and estimate cause-specific mortality rates and the distribution of deaths by cause. VA uses an interview with caregivers of the decedent to elicit data describing the signs and symptoms leading up to the death. This paper develops a new statistical tool known as InSilicoVA to classify cause of death using information acquired through VA. InSilicoVA shares uncertainty between cause of death assignments for specific individuals and the distribution of deaths by cause across the population. Using side-by-side comparisons with both observed and simulated data, we demonstrate that InSilicoVA has distinct advantages compared to currently available methods.

To improve maternal health requires action to ensure quality maternal health care for all women and girls, and to guarantee access to care for those outside the system. In this paper, we highlight some of the most pressing issues in maternal health and ask: what steps can be taken in the next 5 years to catalyse action toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goal target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100?000 livebirths by 2030, with no single country exceeding 140? What steps can be taken to ensure that high-quality maternal health care is prioritised for every woman and girl everywhere? We call on all stakeholders to work together in securing a healthy, prosperous future for all women. National and local governments must be supported by development partners, civil society, and the private sector in leading efforts to improve maternal–perinatal health. This effort means dedicating needed policies and resources, and sustaining implementation to address the many factors influencing maternal health-care provision and use. Five priority actions emerge for all partners: prioritise quality maternal health services that respond to the local specificities of need, and meet emerging challenges; promote equity through universal coverage of quality maternal health services, including for the most vulnerable women; increase the resilience and strength of health systems by optimising the health workforce, and improve facility capability; guarantee sustainable finances for maternal–perinatal health; and accelerate progress through evidence, advocacy, and accountability.This is the sixth in a Series of six papers about maternal health.

Summary All women should have access to high quality maternity services—but what do we know about the health care available to and used by women? With a focus on low-income and middle-income countries, we present data that policy makers and planners can use to evaluate whether maternal health services are functioning to meet needs of women nationally, and potentially subnationally. We describe configurations of intrapartum care systems, and focus in particular on where, and with whom, deliveries take place. The necessity of ascertaining actual facility capability and providers' skills is highlighted, as is the paucity of information on maternity waiting homes and transport as mechanisms to link women to care. Furthermore, we stress the importance of assessment of routine provision of care (not just emergency care), and contextualise this importance within geographic circumstances (eg, in sparsely-populated regions vs dense urban areas). Although no single model-of-care fits all contexts, we discuss implications of the models we observe, and consider changes that might improve services and accelerate response to future challenges. Areas that need attention include minimisation of overintervention while responding to the changing disease burden. Conceptualisation, systematic measurement, and effective tackling of coverage and configuration challenges to implement high quality, respectful maternal health-care services are key to ensure that every woman can give birth without risk to her life, or that of her baby.

Background In African countries, caesarean sections are usually performed to save mothers and babies’ lives, sometimes in extremis and at considerable costs. Little is known about the health and lives of women once discharged after such surgery. We investigated the long-term effects of life-saving caesarean section on health, economic and social outcomes in Burkina Faso. Methods We conducted a 4 year prospective cohort study of women and their babies using mixed methods. The quantitative sample was selected in seven hospitals and included 950 women: 100 women with a caesarean section associated with near-miss complication (life-saving caesareans); 173 women with a vaginal birth associated with near-miss complication; and 677 women with uncomplicated vaginal childbirth. Structured interviews were conducted at 3 months, 6 months, 12 months and 3 and 4 years postpartum. These were supplemented by medical record data on delivery and physical examinations at 6 and 12 months postpartum. The lives and experiences of 21 women were documented ethnographically. Data were analysed with multivariable logistic regressions, using survival analysis and thematic analysis. Results The physical effects of life-saving caesareans appeared to be similar to women who had an uncomplicated childbirth, although 55 % of women with life-saving caesareans had another caesarean in their next pregnancy. The negative effects were generally economic, social and reproductive when compared to vaginal births, including increased debts (AOR = 3.91 (1.46–10.48) and sexual violence (AOR = 4.71 (1.04–21.3)) and lower fertility (AOR = 0.44 (0.24–0.80)) 4 years after life-saving caesareans. In the short and medium term, women with life-saving caesareans appeared to suffer increased psychological distress compared to uncomplicated births. They were more likely to use contraceptives (AOR = 5.95 (1.53–23.06); 3 months). Mortality of the index child was increased in both near-miss groups, independent of delivery mode. Ethnographic data suggest that these consequences are significant for Burkinabe women, whose well-being and social standing are mostly determined by their fertility, marriage strength and family links. Conclusions Life-saving caesareans have broad consequences beyond clinical sequelae. The recent policy to subsidise emergency obstetric care costs implemented in Burkina Faso should help avoid the majority of catastrophic costs, shown to be problematic for women undergoing emergency caesarean section.

BackgroundWomen of reproductive age in parts of sub-Saharan Africa are faced both with high levels of HIV and the threat of dying from the direct complications of pregnancy. Clinicians practicing in such settings have reported a high incidence of direct obstetric complications among HIV-infected women, but the evidence supporting this is unclear. The aim of this systematic review is to establish whether HIV-infected women are at increased risk of direct obstetric complications.Methods and findingsStudies comparing the frequency of obstetric haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, dystocia and intrauterine infections in HIV-infected and uninfected women were identified. Summary estimates of the odds ratio (OR) for the association between HIV and each obstetric complication were calculated through meta-analyses. In total, 44 studies were included providing 66 data sets; 17 on haemorrhage, 19 on hypertensive disorders, five on dystocia and 25 on intrauterine infections. Meta-analysis of the OR from studies including vaginal deliveries indicated that HIV-infected women had over three times the risk of a puerperal sepsis compared with HIV-uninfected women [pooled OR: 3.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.00-5.85]; this figure increased to nearly six amongst studies only including women who delivered by caesarean (pooled OR: 5.81, 95% CI: 2.42-13.97). For other obstetric complications the evidence was weak and inconsistent.ConclusionsThe higher risk of intrauterine infections in HIV-infected pregnant and postpartum women may require targeted strategies involving the prophylactic use of antibiotics during labour. However, as the huge excess of pregnancy-related mortality in HIV-infected women is unlikely to be due to a higher risk of direct obstetric complications, reducing this mortality will require non obstetric interventions involving access to ART in both pregnant and non-pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which has devastating consequences for a woman's life. The estimation of the burden of fistula at the population level has been impaired by the rarity of diagnosis and the lack of rigorous studies. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of fistula in low and middle income countries. METHODS: Six databases were searched, involving two separate searches: one on fistula specifically and one on broader maternal and reproductive morbidities. Studies including estimates of incidence and prevalence of fistula at the population level were included. We conducted meta-analyses of prevalence of fistula among women of reproductive age and the incidence of fistula among recently pregnant women. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence in population-based studies was 0.29 (95% CI 0.00, 1.07) fistula per 1000 women of reproductive age in all regions. Separated by region we found 1.57 (95% CI 1.16, 2.06) in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.10) per 1000 women of reproductive age in sub Saharan Africa and 1.20 (95% CI 0.10, 3.54) per 1000 in South Asia. The pooled incidence was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01, 0.25) per 1000 recently pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the most comprehensive study of the burden of fistula to date. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of fistula is lower than previously reported. The low burden of fistula should not detract from their public health importance, however, given the preventability of the condition, and the devastating consequences of fistula.

Background With effective contraceptives available, unplanned pregnancies are preventable and educational interventions have been cited as a promising platform to increase contraceptive use through improving knowledge. However, results from trials of educational interventions have been disappointing. In order to effectively target future interventions, this study aimed to identify risk factors for unplanned pregnancy among young women in Mwanza, Tanzania. Methods Data were analysed from the MEMA kwa Vijiana Trial Long-term Evaluation Survey, a cross-sectional study of 13 814 young adults aged 15–30 years in Mwanza, Tanzania. Potential risk factors for unplanned pregnancy were grouped under three headings: socio-demographic, knowledge of and attitude towards sexual health, and sexual behaviour and contraceptive use. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify predictors of reported unplanned pregnancy among all sexually active women. Results Increasing age, lower educational level, not being currently married, knowing where to access condoms, increasing number of sexual partners and younger reported age at sexual debut were associated with unplanned pregnancy. Discussion A number of demographic and sexual behaviour risk factors for pregnancy are identified which will help guide future intervention programmes aiming to reduce unplanned pregnancies. This study suggests effective measures to prevent unplanned pregnancies should focus on encouraging girls to stay in school.