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The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)—a measure free from tempo distortions—and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7–0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a long time, high‐income countries tended to report a negative association between female educational attainment and childbearing. Belgium was among the first countries that seemed to witness the emergence of a positive educational gradient in female fertility. It has been argued that—alongside other contextual correlates—this trend reflects the increasing availability of work–family reconciliation policies from which especially highly educated people benefit. In contrast to the sizable body of literature assessing varying educational gradients in female fertility across countries, subnational regional variation has hitherto received little attention. As a result, we study the Belgian case using unique microdata covering all residents in 2002–2005. The main focus is on the relevance of between‐municipality variation in economic conditions and childcare services for understanding variation in second birth hazards by educational attainment. We show that a considerable part of the municipal variation in the educational gradient in second birth hazards reflects a positive link between fertility and childcare provisions as well as wealth for highly educated women, contrasting with lower educated groups. Our findings suggest that institutional support for families is relevant but also incurs the risk of increased social polarisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes affects mortality and cognitive functioning. It is not known how diabetes influences life expectancy (LE) with and without cognitive impairment. We seek to examine age at onset of cognitive impairment and life expectancy (LE) with and without cognitive impairment by diabetes status among middle- and older-aged Americans. Data come from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study 2000–2012 linked to the National Death Index (N = 13,687). We use multinomial regression models stratified by gender and controlling for age, education and race/ethnicity to estimate diabetes-status specific transition probabilities, then use a Markov chain matrix population model to calculate age at onset of cognitive impairment and LE with and without cognitive impairment by diabetes status at age 50. LE at age 50 was 27.6 (men) and 32.1 (women). From age 50, those with diabetes had a first incidence of cognitive impairment 3 (men) and 4 (women) years earlier than those without. Diabetes reduced total LE by 5–7 years and cognitively healthy LE by 4–6 years. Those with diabetes lived one year less in a cognitively impaired state than those without. Over 80% of the lower LE associated with diabetes is attributable to the loss of cognitively-healthy years. Those with diabetes have a shorter LE with cognitive impairment because of higher mortality. In analyses by educational attainment, education was strongly protective of cognitive health, yet diabetes was associated with lower age of cognitive impairment onset and fewer cognitive healthy years lived in all educational groups. The excess mortality because of diabetes may be decreasing. If the mortality decline is not coupled with a comparable decline in the risk of cognitive impairment, the population level burden of impaired cognition may grow larger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young adulthood is a dynamic and demographically dense stage in the life course. This poses a challenge for research on the socioeconomic consequences of parenthood timing, which most often focuses on women. We chart the dynamics of delayed parenthood and its implications for educational and labor market trajectories for young adult women and men using a novel longitudinal analysis approach, the parametric g-formula. This method allows the estimation of both population-averaged effects (among all women and men) and average treatment effects (among mothers and fathers). Based on high-quality data from Finnish registers, we find that later parenthood exacerbates the educational advantage of women in comparison to men and attenuates the income advantage of men in comparison to women across young adult ages. Gender differences in the consequences of delayed parenthood on labor market trajectories are largely not explained by changes in educational trajectories. Moreover, at the time of entering parenthood, delayed parenthood improves the incomes of fathers more than those of mothers, thereby exacerbating existing gender differences. The results provide population-level evidence on how the delay of parenthood has contributed to the strengthening of women's educational position relative to that of men. Further, the findings on greater increases in fathers' than mothers' incomes at the time of entering parenthood, as followed by postponement, may help explain why progress in achieving gender equality in the division of paid and unpaid work in families has been slow. • We analyze the impacts of delayed parenthood with a novel method, the G-formula. • Impacts on educational and labor market trajectories were strong among women. • Impact on income at the time of entering parenthood was notable among fathers. • We demonstrate an approach to modeling the impacts of family-demographic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The association between reproductive success and income in economically developed societies remains a controversial and understudied topic. The commonly made statement that individuals with a higher income have fewer children defies evolutionary explanation. Here we present results from an analyses of the association between lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and income for modern Europeans from 13 countries. We examine the relationships among income, partner income, sex and LRS, and the role of childlessness in driving the relationships. For women, we find a negative association between LRS and income, while for men, we find a flat or slightly positive one. The sex difference in the association appears to be driven by income''s sex-specific association with childlessness; men with a low income have a relatively high risk of childlessness, while women with a low income have a low risk of childlessness. Consequently, once childless people are excluded from the analysis, LRS is negatively associated with income for both sexes. We argue that the observed LRS–income associations may be an outcome of evolved behavioural predispositions operating in modern environments and conclude that, even though humans fail to maximise LRS at all income levels in modern settings, evolutionary theory can still help to explain sex differences in LRS. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]