Search

Your search keyword '"warm water volume"' showing total 15 results
Start Over Descriptor "warm water volume" Topic el nino
15 results on '"warm water volume"'

1. Influence of Spring Precipitation over Maritime Continent and Western North Pacific on the Evolution and Prediction of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Author

Ma, Yifan, Huang, Fei, and Xie, Ruihuang

Subjects
*SPRING, *TROPICAL cyclones, *OCEAN temperature, *SOUTHERN oscillation, *SINGULAR value decomposition, EL Nino, LA Nina
Abstract

Previous studies suggested that spring precipitation over the tropical western Pacific Ocean can influence the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To identify crucial precipitation patterns for post-spring ENSO evolution, a singular value decomposition (SVD) method was applied to spring precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and three precipitation and ENSO types were obtained with each highlighting precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) or western north Pacific (WNP). High MC spring precipitation corresponds to the slow decay of a multi-year La Niña event. Low MC spring precipitation is associated with a rapid El Niño-to-La Niña transition. High WNP spring precipitation is related to positive north Pacific meridional mode and induces the El Niño initiation. Among the three ENSO types, ocean current and heat content behave differently. Based on these spring precipitation and oceanic factors, a statistical model was established aimed at predicting winter ENSO state. Compared to a full dynamical model, this model exhibits higher prediction skills in the winter ENSO phase and amplitude for the period of 1980–2022. The explained total variance of the winter Niño-3.4 index increases from 43% to 75%, while the root-mean-squared error decreases from 0.82 °C to 0.53 °C. The practical utility and limitations of this model are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

2. Intraseasonal Variability of Surface Circulation in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Induced by Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations.

Author

Song, Lina, Wang, Fan, Li, Yuanlong, and Lee, June‐Yi

Subjects
MADDEN-Julian oscillation, EL Nino, MARINE heatwaves, HEAT waves (Meteorology), MONSOONS, OCEAN circulation
Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the most influential mode of tropical atmospheric intraseasonal variability in boreal summer (May–October). This study investigates how the MISO drives the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of zonal currents (U) in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region. An analysis of satellite observations confirms a close association between U ISV and the MISO, with MISO‐induced surface U anomalies reaching 16–19 cm s−1 near the equator and 4–5 cm s−1 in the Northern Hemisphere portion of the IPWP. These ISVs account for 15%–35% of the intensity changes in the major zonal currents. The spatial distribution of U ISV shows coherent enhancement and suppression of MISO convections with a lag of approximately 7 days as a delayed response to the tropical wind forcing. ISV anomalies show northward emanation following propagation of the MISO. Ocean model experiments confirm that large‐scale ISV in surface U is primarily caused by the wind forcing of the MISO. Owing to the convergence/divergence of MISO‐induced U ISV, significant warm water volume anomalies occur in the western‐to‐central equatorial Pacific. Plain Language Summary: The Indo‐Pacific warm pool holds a unique place with the largest area of warm water temperatures above 28°C, which causes vigorous atmospheric convective activities. These convective activities include the winter Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), which have profound effects on the upper ocean. While previous studies have emphasized more on the role of the MJO and the effects of convective activities on temperature and salinity, our work first demonstrates that the large‐scale intraseasonal variability (ISV) of zonal currents is significantly associated with the MISO, and reveals the characteristics and mechanisms of ISV in ocean surface currents. MISO‐induced ISV can significantly modulate the summer mean currents. Ocean model experiments confirm that this large‐scale ISV is mainly driven by MISO‐related wind stress forcing. MISO‐induced ISV in ocean surface circulation further leads to ISV of the warm water volume, which may potentially feedback to the MISO and play a role in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, typhoon and marine heatwaves. Key Points: The MISO induces strong U ISV anomalies in the IPWP, which account for 15%–35% of the intensity changes in the major zonal currentsLarge‐scale U ISV is primarily caused by the MISO wind forcingThe MISO leads to significant ISV in the warm water volume of the western‐to‐central equatorial Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

3. Wind Spatial Structure Triggers ENSO's Oceanic Warm Water Volume Changes.

Author

Neske, S., McGregor, S., Zeller, M., and Dommenget, D.

Subjects
*SOUTHERN oscillation, *WESTERLIES, *ROSSBY waves, *OCEAN waves, EL Nino, LA Nina
Abstract

This study demonstrates that the generalization that strong anomalous equatorial Pacific westerly (easterly) winds during El Niño (La Niña) events display strong adjusted warm water volume (WWV) discharges (recharges) is often incorrect. Using ocean model simulations, we categorize the oceanic adjusted responses to strong anomalous equatorial winds into two categories: (i) transitioning (consistent with the above generalization) and (ii) neutral adjusted responses (with negligible WWV recharge and discharge). During the 1980–2016 period only 47% of strong anomalous equatorial winds are followed by transitioning adjusted responses, while the remaining are followed by neutral adjusted responses. Moreover, 55% (only 30%) of the strongest winds lead to transitioning adjusted responses during the pre-2000 (post-2000) period in agreement with the previously reported post-2000 decline of WWV lead time to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The prominent neutral adjusted WWV response is shown to be largely excited by anomalous wind stress forcing with a weaker curl (on average consistent with a higher ratio of off-equatorial to equatorial wind events) and weaker Rossby wave projection than the transitioning adjusted response. We also identify a prominent ENSO phase asymmetry where strong anomalous equatorial westerly winds (i.e., El Niño events) are roughly 1.6 times more likely to strongly discharge WWV than strong anomalous equatorial easterly winds (i.e., La Niña events) are to strongly recharge WWV. This ENSO phase asymmetry may be added to the list of mechanisms proposed to explain why El Niño events have a stronger tendency to be followed by La Niña events than vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

4. The Role of Westerly Wind Bursts During Different Seasons Versus Ocean Heat Recharge in the Development of Extreme El Niño in Climate Models.

Author

Yu, Sungduk and Fedorov, Alexey V.

Subjects
*ATMOSPHERIC models, *ENTHALPY, *WESTERLIES, *TROPICAL conditions, *SOUTHERN oscillation, *OCEAN, *HEAT
Abstract

The mechanisms and predictability of extreme El Niño events, as in 1982, 1997, and 2015, remain unclear. Here we investigate the relative roles of the ocean initial heat recharge and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur during different seasons in the generation of extreme El Niño events in a climate model (CESM1.2). Several sets of 100‐member ensemble simulations, along with CMIP5 and atmospheric reanalysis data, are used. We show that while the probability of extreme El Niño increases progressively with ocean heat recharge, tropical conditions by year‐end are least predictable (the largest ensemble spread) for moderately‐to‐strongly recharged ocean initial states, rather than neutrally charged. Even after strong early‐year WWBs and recharged ocean the occurrence of extreme El Niño has limited predictability. While the early‐year WWBs are still important for strong El Niño, it is to a lesser extent than suggested previously, as mid‐year WWBs play a critical role in El Niño progression. Plain Language Summary: El Niño is a climate phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific and affects weather patterns worldwide, causing dramatic changes in local temperatures and rainfall. Such impacts are especially pronounced during extreme El Niño events, whose prediction would have broad socio‐economic benefits. In this study, we use model simulations and observations to examine the relative roles of episodic westerly wind bursts and initial upper‐ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific—two potential precursors of El Niño—in the development of extreme events. We show that with increased ocean heat content in January, the likelihood of extreme El Niño by year‐end increases, but so does the forecast spread for year‐end tropical conditions. This is because westerly wind bursts that occur mid‐year become more critical for El Niño development than early‐year bursts. Thus, our study implies that even after strong early‐year westerly wind bursts with high positive initial ocean heat content the predictability of an extreme El Niño remains limited unless we can find a way to anticipate mid‐year westerly wind bursts. Key Points: Chances of extreme El Niño increase progressively with the initial ocean heat recharge, but the prediction uncertainty increases as wellEarly‐year westerly wind bursts may have weaker impacts on the occurrence of extreme El Niño than previously suggestedMid‐year westerly wind bursts are a major factor controlling the strength of El Niño and hence critical for extreme El Niño events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

5. ENSO Regime Changes Responsible for Decadal Phase Relationship Variations Between ENSO Sea Surface Temperature and Warm Water Volume.

Author

Zhang, Wenjun, Li, Sixu, Jin, Fei‐Fei, Xie, Ruihuang, Liu, Chao, Stuecker, Malte F., and Xue, Aoyun

Subjects
*OCEAN temperature, *WEATHER forecasting, *SEA level, *CLIMATE change, EL Nino
Abstract

The relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase‐lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase‐lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV‐ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability. Key Points: Relationship between WWV and Niño3.4 SST varies on decadal timescales, corresponding to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific ENSOBoth eastern and central Pacific ENSO events show recharge/discharge signatures but with different WWV/Niño3.4 phase‐lag relationshipsThis difference can be explained by the existence of two different ENSO types characterized by distinct intrinsic periodicities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

6. The interaction between the Western Indian Ocean and ENSO in CESM.

Author

Wieners, Claudia E., Dijkstra, Henk A., and de Ruijter, Will P. M.

Subjects
*MADDEN-Julian oscillation, *OCEAN temperature, *THERMOCLINES (Oceanography), *OCEAN, EL Nino
Abstract

Several previous studies have suggested that a cool western Indian Ocean may induce convection over Indonesia, leading to surface convergence and easterlies over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. These easterlies then increase the Pacific Warm Water Volume favouring El Niño in the next year. We investigate this mechanism of Indian-Pacific interaction using output from two simulations (at 0. 1 ∘ and 1 ∘ ocean model resolution) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). No conclusive evidence for the suggested interaction mechanism is found in CESM. Like many other coupled models, CESM has an overly strong sea surface temperature variability in the eastern Indian Ocean due to an exaggerated sensitivity of the sea surface temperature to thermocline variations. Due to this bias the effect of the western Indian Ocean signals on the Pacific, as found from observational analysis, is hidden. Our analysis shows that this bias can be traced to errors in the time-mean vertical temperature profile in the Indian Ocean. This bias needs to be reduced to allow a better investigation of the subtle interactions between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

7. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO.

Author

Feba, F., Ashok, K., and Ravichandran, M.

Subjects
*ATMOSPHERIC circulation, *SUMMER, *MADDEN-Julian oscillation, *MONSOONS, EL Nino
Abstract

We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

8. Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Niña Than of El Niño.

Author

Planton, Yann, Vialard, Jérôme, Guilyardi, Eric, Lengaigne, Matthieu, and Izumo, Takeshi

Subjects
*SOUTHERN oscillation, *THERMOCLINES (Oceanography), *OCEAN temperature, *ROSSBY waves, LA Nina, EL Nino
Abstract

The western equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content (warm water volume in the west or WWVw) is the best El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictor beyond 1‐year lead. Using observations and selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations, we show that a discharged WWVw in boreal fall is a better predictor of La Niña than a recharged WWVw for El Niño 13 months later, both in terms of occurrence and amplitude. These results are robust when considering the heat content across the entire equatorial Pacific (WWV) at shorter lead times, including all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models or excluding Niño‐Niña and Niña‐Niño phase transitions. Suggested mechanisms for this asymmetry include (1) the negatively skewed WWVw distribution with stronger discharges related to stronger wind stress anomalies during El Niño and (2) the stronger positive Bjerknes feedback loop during El Niño. The possible role of stronger subseasonal wind variations during El Niño is also discussed. Plain language summary: El Niño and La Niña have strong societal impacts at the global scale, especially large‐amplitude El Niño events like in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016. It is hence important to identify early warning signals for the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña. The equatorial Pacific Ocean heat content is a well‐known predictor of El Niño/La Niña several seasons ahead. In this study, we show that negative heat content anomalies lead more systematically to La Niña events than positive heat content to El Niño events. We suggest that the enhanced predictability of La Niña relative to El Niño is due to larger negative heat content anomalies ahead of La Niña events and a more unstable (and hence less predictable) ocean‐atmosphere system during El Niño. Key Points: The western equatorial Pacific heat content is the best El Niño‐Southern Oscillation oceanic predictor beyond 1‐year leadThis relation is asymmetrical: La Niña amplitude and occurrence is more predictable than that of El NiñoWeak western Pacific heat content recharges, stronger air‐sea coupling, and atmospheric stochasticity contribute to this asymmetry [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
Full Text
View/download PDF

9. Charging El Niño with off-equatorial westerly wind events.

Author

McGregor, Shayne, Timmermann, Axel, Jin, Fei-Fei, and Kessler, William

Subjects
*WESTERLIES, *ATMOSPHERIC circulation, *ROSSBY waves, *ATMOSPHERIC waves, *OCEAN waves
Abstract

The buildup of the warm water in the equatorial Pacific prior to an El Niño event is considered a necessary precondition for event development, while the event initiation is thought to be triggered by bursts of westerly wind. However, in contrast to the view that warm water slowly builds up years before an El Niño event, the volume of warm water in the equatorial Pacific doubled in the first few months of 2014 reaching values that were consistent with the warm water buildup prior to the extreme 1997/1998 El Niño. It is notable that this dramatic warm water buildup coincided with a series of westerly wind bursts in the western tropical Pacific. This study uses linear wave theory to determine the effect of equatorial and off-equatorial westerly wind events on the Warm Water Volume (WWV) of the Pacific. It is found that westerly wind events have a significant impact on equatorial WWV with all events initially acting to increase WWV, which highlights why WWEs are so effective at exciting ENSO. In fact, our results suggest that the single westerly wind burst, which peaked in the first few days of March in 2014, was largely responsible for the coincident dramatic observed increase in WWV. How long the equatorial region remains charged, however, depends on the latitude of the westerly wind event. For instance, a single equatorially symmetric westerly wind event ultimately acts to discharge WWV via the reflection of upwelling Rossby waves, which makes it difficult to more gradually build WWV given multiple WWEs. In contrast, when the wind events occur off the equator, the subsequent discharge is significantly damped and in some cases the equatorial region can hold the heat charge for the duration of the simulations (~6 months). As such, off-equatorial WWEs can not only charge equatorial region WWV in the short term, but are also a mechanism to more gradually build equatorial region WWV in the longer term. Given that these off-equatorial WWEs have a relatively small projection onto the equatorial Kelvin wave, we argue these events can be considered as a mechanism to modulate the background state in which ENSO operates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
Full Text
View/download PDF

10. Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Niña Than of El Niño

Author

Takeshi Izumo, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jérôme Vialard, Eric Guilyardi, Yann Planton, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences (IFCWS), Indian Institute of Science [Bangalore] (IISc Bangalore), ANR-15-JCLI-0004,GOTHAM,Globally Observed Teleconnections and their role and representation in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models(2015), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], El Nino - La Nina asymmetry, Wind stress, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, La Niña, Geophysics, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Boreal, El Niño, 13. Climate action, predictability, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, CMIP5, Predictability, Ocean heat content, ENSO, oceanic preconditioning, warm water volume, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The western equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content (warm water volume in the west or WWVw) is the best El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictor beyond 1-year lead. Using observations and selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations, we show that a discharged WWVw in boreal fall is a better predictor of La Nina than a recharged WWVw for El Nino 13 months later, both in terms of occurrence and amplitude. These results are robust when considering the heat content across the entire equatorial Pacific (WWV) at shorter lead times, including all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models or excluding Nino-Nina and Nina-Nino phase transitions. Suggested mechanisms for this asymmetry include (1) the negatively skewed WWVw distribution with stronger discharges related to stronger wind stress anomalies during El Nino and (2) the stronger positive Bjerknes feedback loop during El Nino. The possible role of stronger subseasonal wind variations during El Nino is also discussed. Plain language summary El Nino and La Nina have strong societal impacts at the global scale, especially large-amplitude El Nino events like in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. It is hence important to identify early warning signals for the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. The equatorial Pacific Ocean heat content is a well-known predictor of El Nino/La Nina several seasons ahead. In this study, we show that negative heat content anomalies lead more systematically to La Nina events than positive heat content to El Nino events. We suggest that the enhanced predictability of La Nina relative to El Nino is due to larger negative heat content anomalies ahead of La Nina events and a more unstable (and hence less predictable) ocean-atmosphere system during El Nino.

Published
2018

11. The 2002/2003 El Nino: Equatorial waves sequence and their impact on sea surface temperature

Author

Mosquera-Vasquez, K., Dewitte, B., Illig, S., Takahashi, K., Garric, G., Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Echanges Côte-Large (ECOLA), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Mercator Océan, Société Civile CNRS Ifremer IRD Météo-France SHOM, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)

Subjects
WARM POOL, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09 [http], Equatorial waves, TOPEX/POSEIDON, CIRCULATION, Physics::Geophysics, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.00 [http], EVENTS, MODEL, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.11 [http], VARIABILITY, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10 [http], OCEAN, El Niño, Warm water volume, TROPICAL PACIFIC, ENSO, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

ISI Document Delivery No.: 129JU Times Cited: 1 Cited Reference Count: 38 Cited References: Ashok K, 2007, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V112, DOI 10.1029/2006JC003798 Belmadani A, 2010, J CLIMATE, V23, P3181, DOI 10.1175/2010JCLI2830.1 BLUMENTHAL MB, 1989, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V19, P815, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1989)0192.0.CO;2 Bosc C, 2008, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V113, DOI 10.1029/2007JC004613 BUSALACCHI AJ, 1988, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V18, P801, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1988)0182.0.CO;2 Chelton DB, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P1479, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2 CLARKE AJ, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V96, P10731, DOI 10.1029/91JC00933 Dewitte B, 2011, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V116, DOI 10.1029/2010JC006495 Dewitte B, 2012, CLIM DYNAM, V38, P2275, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1215-x Dewitte B, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V108, DOI 10.1029/2002JC001362 Ducet N, 2000, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V105, P19477, DOI 10.1029/2000JC900063 Fedorov AV, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P3086, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2 Garric G., 2008, 235 MERC Gentemann CL, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30, DOI 10.1029/2002GL016291 HAYES SP, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V96, P10553, DOI 10.1029/91JC00942 Jin FF, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P811, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)0542.0.CO;2 Kug JS, 2009, J CLIMATE, V22, P1499, DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1 Kug JS, 2010, J CLIMATE, V23, P1226, DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI3293.1 Kim W, 2011, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V38, DOI 10.1029/2011GL048521 Lee T, 2010, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V37, DOI 10.1029/2010GL044007 Lengaigne M, 2012, CLIM DYNAM, V38, P1031, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1051-z Le Traon PY, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P8045, DOI 10.1029/97JC01917 Levitus S, 1998, WORLD OCEAN DATABASE Madec G., 1998, OPA 8 1 OCEAN GEN CI McPhaden MJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14169, DOI 10.1029/97JC02906 McPhaden MJ, 2011, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V38, DOI 10.1029/2011GL048275 McPhaden MJ, 2012, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V39, DOI 10.1029/2012GL051826 McPhaden MJ, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P677, DOI 10.1175/BAMS-85-5-677 Meinen CS, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3551, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.CO;2 FU LL, 1994, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V99, P24369, DOI 10.1029/94JC01761 Rayner NA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108, DOI 10.1029/2002JD002670 Takahashi K, 2011, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V38, DOI 10.1029/2011GL047364 Wang WM, 1999, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V29, P1812, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1999)0292.0.CO;2 Wentz FJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P847, DOI 10.1126/science.288.5467.847 Yeh SW, 2009, NATURE, V461, P511, DOI 10.1038/nature08316 Yu JY, 2010, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V37, DOI 10.1029/2010GL042810 Yu JY, 2011, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V103, P337, DOI 10.1007/s00704-010-0307-6 ZEBIAK SE, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P2262, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)1152.0.CO;2 Mosquera-Vasquez, K. Dewitte, B. Illig, S. Takahashi, K. Garric, G. Takahashi, Ken/G-5321-2010 Takahashi, Ken/0000-0003-3670-2939 Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) K. Mosquera-Vasquez benefited from a Ph.D. scholarship received from Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD). The authors also thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work is part of the projects of the special agreement between IRD and IGP (2011-2013). 1 AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION WASHINGTON J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS; The recent decades have experienced changes in the characteristics of the El Nino phenomenon, with in particular an increased occurrence of so-called Modoki or Central Pacific El Ninos. Here the 2002/2003 El Nino, characterized as a Central Pacific El Nino, is studied from an Ocean General Circulation Model simulation. The focus is on the sequence of equatorial waves and their impact on zonal and vertical advection. The wave amplitude according to the most energetic baroclinic modes are first estimated, which allows inferring the sequence of the intraseasonal equatorial Kelvin (IKW) and Rossby (IRW) waves. It is shown that energetic downwelling IKWs, forced in the western-central Pacific, crossed the equatorial Pacific. Reflections of IKWs into IRWs onto the zonally varying thermocline and eastern boundary are also observed. A simplified heat budget of the surface layer is then carried out to infer the dominant processes at work during the evolution of this event focusing on the wave-induced advection terms. The results indicate that the warming phase (April-November 2002) is mainly controlled by zonal advection of mean temperature (accounted for by IKWs and locally wind-driven current) and by vertical advection in the eastern Pacific. The cooling phase (December 2002 to April 2003) is dominated by a reduction in solar radiation and the IRW-induced zonal advection of mean temperature respectively in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The recharge-discharge process is also showed to be at work with the recharge (discharge) process operating mainly through the second (first) baroclinic mode.

Published
2013

12. Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO and their relationships to the recharge/discharge oscillator paradigm

Author

Awnesh M. Singh, Thierry Delcroix, Océan du Large et Variabilité Climatique (OLVAC), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, CONCEPTUAL-MODEL, Aquatic Science, Structural basin, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Recharge-discharge oscillator, POOL, Central Pacific El Nino, oscillator, CHANGING CLIMATE, 14. Life underwater, Altimeter, Recharge-discharge, Warm water volume, TROPICAL PACIFIC, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, TONGUE EL-NINO, OCEAN CIRCULATION, 010505 oceanography, Ocean current, EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, Groundwater recharge, 16. Peace & justice, NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION, Sea surface temperature, La Niña, Geography, El Niño, 13. Climate action, WARM, Climatology, SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE, ENSO, Sea level anomaly, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Thermocline, Tropical Pacific
Abstract

ISI Document Delivery No.: 254MF Times Cited: 0 Cited Reference Count: 61 Cited References: Alory G, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V107, DOI 10.1029/2001JC001067 Ashok K, 2007, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V112, DOI 10.1029/2006JC003798 Ashok K, 2012, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V39, DOI 10.1029/2011GL050232 Barnier B, 2006, OCEAN DYNAM, V56, P543, DOI 10.1007/s10236-006-0082-1 BATTISTI DS, 1989, J ATMOS SCI, V46, P1687, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)0462.0.CO;2 Bosc C, 2008, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V113, DOI 10.1029/2007JC004613 Brown JN, 2010, J CLIMATE, V23, P221, DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI2347.1 Clarke A. J., 2008, INTRO DYNAMICS EL NI Clarke AJ, 2007, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V37, P1077, DOI 10.1175/JPO3035.1 Clement A, 2011, J CLIMATE, V24, P4056, DOI 10.1175/2011JCLI3973.1 Dewitte B, 2012, CLIM DYNAM, V38, P2275, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1215-x Dommenget D, 2010, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V37, DOI 10.1029/2010GL044888 Ducet N, 2000, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V105, P19477, DOI 10.1029/2000JC900063 Durand F, 2000, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V30, P3261, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2000)0302.0.CO;2 Hasegawa T, 2003, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V33, P407, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2003)0332.0.CO;2 Hasegawa T, 2006, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33, DOI 10.1029/2005GL024832 Hendon HH, 2009, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V36, DOI 10.1029/2009GL040100 Horii T, 2012, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V39, DOI 10.1029/2012GL051740 Ishida A, 2008, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V35, DOI 10.1029/2008GL034858 Jin FF, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P811, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)0542.0.CO;2 Kao HY, 2009, J CLIMATE, V22, P615, DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1 Kim HM, 2009, SCIENCE, V325, P77, DOI 10.1126/science.1174062 Kug JS, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V108, DOI 10.1029/2002JC001671 Kug JS, 2009, J CLIMATE, V22, P1499, DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2624.1 Kug JS, 2010, J CLIMATE, V23, P1226, DOI 10.1175/2009JCLI3293.1 Larkin NK, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32, DOI 10.1029/2005GL022738 LATIF M, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V96, P2661, DOI 10.1029/90JC02468 Lee T, 2010, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V37, DOI 10.1029/2010GL044007 Lengaigne M, 2012, CLIM DYNAM, V38, P1031, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1051-z McPhaden MJ, 2012, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V39, DOI 10.1029/2012GL051826 McPhaden MJ, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30, DOI 10.1029/2003GL016872 McPhaden MJ, 2006, SCIENCE, V314, P1740, DOI 10.1126/science.1132588 Mechoso CR, 2003, J ATMOS SCI, V60, P305, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)0602.0.CO;2 Meinen CS, 2005, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V35, P323, DOI 10.1175/JPO-2694.1 Meinen CS, 2001, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V31, P1324, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(2001)0312.0.CO;2 Meinen CS, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3551, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.CO;2 Mosquera-Vasquez K, 2013, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V118, P346, DOI 10.1029/2012JC008551 Philander S., 1990, NINO NINA SO OSCILLA Picaut J, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P1486, DOI 10.1126/science.274.5292.1486 Picaut J, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V107, DOI 10.1029/2001JC000850 Picaut J, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P663, DOI 10.1126/science.277.5326.663 Radenac MH, 2012, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V117, DOI 10.1029/2011JC007841 RASMUSSON EM, 1982, MON WEATHER REV, V110, P354, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)1102.0.CO;2 Rayner NA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108, DOI 10.1029/2002JD002670 Ren HL, 2011, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V38, DOI 10.1029/2010GL046031 Singh A., 2012, THESIS U TOULOUSE P Singh A., 2011, J GEOPHYS RES, V116, DOI DOI 10.1029/20101C006862 SUAREZ MJ, 1988, J ATMOS SCI, V45, P3283, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1988)0452.0.CO;2 van Oldenborgh GJ, 2005, OCEAN SCI, V1, P81 Vincent EM, 2011, CLIM DYNAM, V36, P1881, DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0716-3 Wang CZ, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V147, P21 Wang CZ, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P98, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)0142.0.CO;2 WARD JH, 1963, J AM STAT ASSOC, V58, P236, DOI 10.2307/2282967 Weisberg RH, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P779, DOI 10.1029/97GL00689 Weng HY, 2007, CLIM DYNAM, V29, P113, DOI 10.1007/s00382-007-0234-0 WYRTKI K, 1981, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V11, P1205, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1981)0112.0.CO;2 WYRTKI K, 1984, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V14, P242, DOI 10.1175/1520-0485(1984)0142.0.CO;2 WYRTKI K, 1985, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V90, P7129, DOI 10.1029/JC090iC04p07129 Xiang BQ, 2013, CLIM DYNAM, V41, P327, DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1427-8 Yeh SW, 2011, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V38, DOI 10.1029/2010GL045886 Yeh SW, 2009, NATURE, V461, P511, DOI 10.1038/nature08316 Singh, Awnesh Delcroix, Thierry French ANR; French Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) This work is a contribution to the Solwara proposal supported by the French ANR. We benefited from freely available datasets, including SLA from Aviso (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/data/products/sea-surface-height-produ cts/global/msla), WWV from PMEL (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elNino/wwv/), gridded Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/), and the El Nino Modoki Index (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt). We do thank B. Barnier and J.-M. Molines from LEGI, Grenoble, for making available the latest DRAKKAR model output. Comments from S. Cravatte and from four anonymous and tenacious though overall constructive reviewers were appreciated. One of us (A.S.) benefited from a Ph.D. grant from the French Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) while staying at the LEGOS laboratory in Toulouse, France from 2009-2012. 0 PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD OXFORD DEEP-SEA RES PT I; One of the leading theories to explain the oscillatory nature of the El Nino Southern Oscillation is the recharge-discharge oscillator paradigm, which roots on warm waters exchanged between the equatorial and off-equatorial regions. This study tests the relevance of this theory to account for the Eastern and recently mediated Central Pacific El Nino events. The recharge-discharge of the equatorial Pacific, measured here as changes in Warm (> 20 degrees C) Water Volume (WWV), is analysed using monthly 1993-2010 sea level anomaly (a proxy for WWV) obtained from altimetry, and a validated 1958-2007 DRAKKAR simulation. An Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (ARC) technique performed on the observed and modelled WWV tendency shows the existence of five distinct clusters, which characterise the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Nino, La Nina, after EP El Nino and neutral conditions. The AHC results, complemented with an analysis of lagged-regression analysis, and 3-month averages of typical EP and CP El Nino events, indicate that the equatorial band WWV discharge during CP is not as pronounced as during EP El Nino. To understand the differences, we analysed the balance of horizontal mass transports accounting for changes in WWV tendency. The analysis indicates an overall poleward transport during EP El Nino, which is not the case during CP El Nino. Instead, a compensating effect with a poleward (equatorward) transport occurring in the western (eastern) Pacific is evident, in line with changes in the zonal thermocline slopes occurring in the western (eastern) half of the basin. The WWV changes are discussed with respect to the conceptual phases of the recharge-discharge oscillator paradigm. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Published
2013

13. Contrasting the flavors of ENSO and related trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean in recent decades

Author

Singh, Awnesh, Océan du Large et Variabilité Climatique (OLVAC), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, Thierry Delcroix, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
oscillateur rechargé déchargé, SPCZ, température de surface, sea surface salinit, Océan Pacifique Tropical, niveau de la me, sea level, recharge-discharge oscillator, ZCPS, tropical Pacific, sea surface temperature, La Niña, ENOA, volume d'eau chaude, El Niño, salinité de surface, ENSO, warm pool, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, warm water volume
Abstract

The main features of the Eastern (EP) and Central (CP) Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are analyzed using 1950-2010 observed and modeled data. Using various analysis techniques, we found that the CP El Niño differs from the canonical EP El Niño in terms of amplitude and location of maximum/minimum sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity and sea level anomalies, and the recharge/discharge (R/D) dynamical mode. The distinctive R/D features are characterized by different transport mechanisms: during EP El Niño, there is a mass discharge of warm waters (>20°C) over the entire equatorial band resulting in a change from El Niño to La Niña conditions. Whereas during CP El Niño, there is a compensating effect ensuing in relatively no overall discharge. Furthermore, the long-term trends due to ENSO are mostly because of the influence of CP El Niño, which for example, accounts up to 30% of the warming/freshening trends in the western-central equatorial Pacific.; Comprendre les mécanismes moteurs et pouvoir anticiper l'impact environnemental du phénomène El Niño Oscillation Australe (ENOA) constituent des enjeux scientifiques et sociétaux de première importance, notamment pour les Pays Emergents. Dans cette thèse, nous avons documenté et contrasté la signature de différents types d'ENOA - dits canoniques et Modoki - pour plusieurs variables climatiques essentielles (température et salinité de surface, niveau de la mer, courant de surface, précipitation, vent de surface, ...), analysé la pertinence de la théorie dite de recharge / décharge, une des quatre théories majeures d'ENOA, à rendre compte ou non de la nature quasi oscillatoire de ces différents types et quantifié l'impact potentiel des modifications des caractéristiques majeures d'ENOA sur notre interprétation des tendances climatiques à 'long' terme pour ces variables climatiques essentielles.

Published
2012

14. Empirical model for forecast the Peruvian sea surface temperature

Author

Matellini, Benjamin, Tam, Jorge, and Quispe, Carlos

Subjects
Modelo empírico, Empirical model, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, El Niño, volumen de agua cálida, surface temperature, Pacífico Ecuatorial, temperatura superficial, warm water volume
Abstract

En el presente trabajo se estudia un modelo empírico basado en el volumen de agua cálida en el Pacífico ecuatorial que se aplica para hacer previsiones de temperatura superficial del mar frente a Perú, lo cual sirve como una herramienta de alerta temprana de los efectos de El Niño. La relación del volumen de agua cálida con la profundidad de la isoterma de 20 °C es mayor en el Pacífico central en la latitud cero. Los cambios de este volumen afectan después varios meses la temperatura superficial del mar frente a Perú, particularmente cuando este volumen presenta anomalías positivas. El modelo logra estimar el momento en que se inicia el aumento de temperatura superficial del mar asociado a los efectos de El Niño en la Región Niño 1 costera, el momento de ocurrencia del pico de los eventos, y las tendencias a mediano plazo. In the present work an empirical model based on the warm water volume in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean is studied as a tool to forecast variations of sea surface temperature off the coast of Perú, which will be useful as a tool for giving early warnings of El Niño effects. The relation between the warm water volume and the depth of the 20°C isotherm is greater in the Central Pacific along latitude 0°. Several months later the changes of this volume affect the sea surface temperature off Perú particularly when its anomalies are positive. The model estimates the time when sea surface temperature begins to rise associated with El Niño effects in the coastal Niño 1 Region, the time when the event peaks, and the medium term trends.

Published
2007

15. Empirical model for forecast the Peruvian sea surface temperature

Author

Matellini, Benjamin, Tam, Jorge, and Quispe, Carlos

Subjects
GC, GE, Empirical model, Modelo empírico, Pacífi co Ecuatorial, Equatorial Pacific Ocean, El Niño, surface temperature, volumen de agua cálida, warm water volume, temperatura superficial
Abstract

In the present work an empirical model based on the warm water volume in the Equatorial Pacifi c Ocean is studied as a tool to forecast variations of sea surface temperature off the coast of Perú, which will be useful as a tool for giving early warnings of El Niño effects. The relation between the warm water volume and the depth of the 20°C isotherm is greater in the Central Pacifi c along latitude 0°. Several months later the changes of this volume affect the sea surface temperature off Perú particularly when its anomalies are positive. The model estimates the time when sea surface temperature begins to rise associated with El Niño effects in the coastal Niño 1 Region, the time when the event peaks, and the medium term trends., En el presente trabajo se estudia un modelo empírico basado en el volumen de agua cálida en el Pacífi co ecuatorial que se aplica para hacer previsiones de temperatura superfi cial del mar frente a Perú, lo cual sirve como una herramienta de alerta temprana de los efectos de El Niño. La relación del volumen de agua cálida con la profundidad de la isoterma de 20 °C es mayor en el Pacífi co central en la latitud cero. Los cambios de este volumen afectan después varios meses la temperatura superfi cial del mar frente a Perú, particularmente cuando este volumen presenta anomalías positivas. El modelo logra estimar el momento en que se inicia el aumento de temperatura superfi cial del mar asociado a los efectos de El Niño en la Región Niño 1 costera, el momento de ocurrencia del pico de los eventos, y las tendencias a mediano plazo.

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results