1. Development and external validation of preoperative clinical prediction models for postoperative outcomes including preoperative aerobic fitness in patients approaching elective colorectal cancer surgery.
- Author
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Cuijpers ACM, Lubbers T, Dronkers JJ, Heldens AFJM, Zoethout SB, Leistra D, van Kuijk SMJ, van Meeteren NLU, Stassen LPS, and Bongers BC
- Subjects
- Humans, Male, Female, Aged, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Risk Assessment methods, Preoperative Exercise, Body Mass Index, Recovery of Function, Preoperative Period, Age Factors, Colorectal Neoplasms surgery, Elective Surgical Procedures, Physical Fitness, Postoperative Complications epidemiology
- Abstract
Introduction: Preoperative aerobic fitness is associated with postoperative outcomes after elective colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. This study aimed to develop and externally validate two clinical prediction models incorporating a practical test to assess preoperative aerobic fitness to distinguish between patients with and without an increased risk for 1) postoperative complications and 2) a prolonged time to in-hospital recovery of physical functioning after elective colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery., Materials and Methods: Models were developed using prospective data from 256 patients and externally validated using prospective data of 291 patients. Postoperative complications were classified according to Clavien-Dindo. The modified Iowa level of assistance scale (mILAS) was used to determine time to postoperative in-hospital physical recovery. Aerobic fitness, age, sex, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, neoadjuvant treatment, surgical approach, tumour location, and preoperative haemoglobin level were potential predictors. Areas under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests evaluated predictive performance., Results: Aerobic fitness, sex, age, ASA, tumour location, and surgical approach were included in the final models. External validation of the model for complications and postoperative recovery presented moderate to fair discrimination (AUC 0.666 (0.598-0.733) and 0.722 (0.651-0.794), respectively) and good calibration. High sensitivity and high negative predictive values were observed in the lower predicted risk categories (<40 %)., Conclusion: Both models identify patients with and without an increased risk of complications or a prolonged time to in-hospital physical recovery. They might be used for improving patient-tailored preoperative risk assessment and targeted and cost-effective application of prehabilitation interventions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. NvM is professor and executive director of Health∼Holland. No staff member of Health∼Holland (including the executive director) can ever be involved in the assessment, allocation, and board decisions regarding applications. Health∼Holland does not interfere in any way during the implementation of projects. Only after financial and administrative completion of the project, and after delivery of the formal report to Health∼Holland, NvM became involved in the writing and editing of this article. Therefore, the authors declare no conflict of (financial) interest., (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).)
- Published
- 2024
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