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The use of fossil fuels, which still dominate global primary energy consumption, results not only in emissions of greenhouse gas but also in emissions of pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and PM. Damage caused by air pollution can be expressed in monetary terms in the form of external costs to society. The goal of this paper is to answer the following questions: How much will the energy sector's emissions change as a result of decarbonization? What is the estimated level of external costs related to human health in future energy scenarios? How large are the estimated external costs compared to the planned investments in this sector? The study conducted for the period 2018–2050 used the impact pathway approach and covered the centralized power and heat generation sector in Poland. The reported values of the concentration–response functions that relate human exposure to air pollution with health impact were reviewed. The results show that external costs decrease from an estimated annual level in the range of EUR 782–1911 million in 2018 to EUR 36–876 million in 2050. The cumulative value of avoided external costs between 2018 and 2050 is significantly lower than the planned capital expenditures in the energy sector in Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper presents the results of the integrated assessment modelling of environmental and human health impacts of emissions in Poland. The analysis was performed based on the so-called National Scenario. The estimated emission levels of SO2, NOx, and PMs for 2020 were used as the input data to model ambient concentrations and depositions of these pollutants. Exceedances of critical loads of acidity caused by nitrogen and sulphur depositions were calculated. External costs associated with human health impacts of air pollution were estimated. Additionally, ambient concentration of gaseous and particulate Hg were modelled based on 2005 EMEP emissions data. The main part of the analysis was carried out using the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model POLAIR3D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]