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By 30 January 1998, there had been 170,259 confirmed cases of BSE in Great Britain (GB), 1766 confirmed cases in Northern Ireland (NI) (2 January 1998), and 276 confirmed cases in the Republic of Ireland (31 January 1998). Analysis of the epidemiological patterns in the NI epidemic reveals significant clustering of cases in herds and counties. The observed clustering of cases within herds results in lower per capita incidence of BSE in previously unaffected herds, providing support for the introduction of a certified herd scheme in NI. By fitting a backcalculation model to the case data, we can estimate the number of animals infected with the aetiological agent of BSE and project the number of future cases. We predict that the epidemic will decline rapidly, with approximately 99 cases (95% confidence interval 30,504) occurring in the five year period 1997-2001.

The epidemiology of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Northern Ireland from 1988, when it was first confirmed, to the end of 1995 is described. All cases of BSE were subjected to a detailed epidemiological investigation, complemented by data from the national animal health records on every bovine animal. Data are presented on 1680 cases. Many of the epidemiological features of the disease were similar to those reported in Great Britain, but the incidence in Northern Ireland was approximately one-tenth that in Great Britain. The epidemic increased to a peak of 56 cases per month in January 1994, and decreased to nine cases in December 1995. Statutory intervention banning the use of meat and bone meal in ruminant feed in January 1989 has produced a marked and continuing reduction in the incidence. The majority of the cases were in Northern Ireland cattle, but 83 cases were imported from Great Britain and five from the Republic of Ireland. Many of the key epidemiological features have remained constant throughout the epidemic: the greater incidence of BSE in dairy herds than in beef suckler herds, the low within-herd incidence, the variation in incidence with herd size, the breed distribution, the distribution of the reported clinical signs and the proportion of purchased cases. Although the source of the BSE epidemic in Northern Ireland has not been established conclusively, the evidence suggests that the importation of meat and bone meal and protein concentrates from Great Britain may have been responsible.

This study describes the epidemiological features of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Northern Ireland where the first case occurred in November 1988. They were very similar to those observed in Great Britain except that the annual incidence of BSE in 1990 in Northern Ireland, 2.3 confirmed cases per 10,000 adult cows, was approximately one 10th of that in Great Britain. The findings were also consistent with the current hypothesis that affected cattle had been exposed to a scrapie-like agent via cattle feedstuffs containing ruminant-derived protein. However, a preliminary investigation of the potential sources of infection for cattle in Northern Ireland did not provide any conclusive evidence.