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The global extinction crisis is intensifying rapidly, driven by habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, invasive species, and disease. This unprecedented loss of species not only threatens ecological integrity but also undermines ecosystem services vital for human survival. In response, many countries have set ambitious conservation targets such as halting species extinctions, yet the necessary financial commitments to achieve this are rarely prescribed. Estimating costs can be achieved using an ensemble of spatially variable species-specific cost models for threat abatement activities. We employ this method to provide a cost assessment to halt extinctions for Australia's priority terrestrial and freshwater species. We show that it will cost ~AUD15.6 billion/year for 30 y to halt extinctions for these 99 priority species (comparable to 1% of Australia's GDP). The more ambitious objectives to move priority species down one threat category (~AUD103.7 billion/year) or remove from the threatened species list entirely (~AUD157.7 billion/year) would require considerably more investment. Regardless of what is spent, we found that 16 (16%) priority species could not be removed from the threatened species list due to extensive historical declines and pervasive, ongoing, unmanageable threats, such as climate change. But implementing these efforts could ensure conservation benefits for over 43% of all nationally listed nonmarine threatened species. Adequate funding is crucial for meeting government commitments and requires both government leadership and private sector investment., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Monitoring is critical to gauge the effect of environmental management interventions as well as to measure the effects of human disturbances such as climate change. Recognition of the critical need for monitoring means that, at irregular intervals, recommendations are made for new government-instigated programs or to revamp existing ones. Using insights from past well-intentioned (but sadly also often failed) attempts to establish and maintain government-instigated monitoring programs in Australia, we outline eight things that should never be done in environmental monitoring programs (if they aim to be useful). These are the following: (1) Never commence a new environmental management initiative without also committing to a monitoring program. (2) Never start a monitoring program without clear questions. (3) Never implement a monitoring program without first doing a proper experimental design. (4) Never ignore the importance of matching the purpose and objectives of a monitoring program to the design of that program. (5) Never change the way you monitor something without ensuring new methods can be calibrated with the old ones. (6) Never try to monitor everything. (7) Never collect data without planning to curate and report on it. (8) If possible, avoid starting a monitoring program without the necessary resources secured. To balance our "nevers", we provide a checklist of actions that will increase the chances a monitoring program will actually measure the effectiveness of environmental management. Scientists and resource management practitioners need to be part of a stronger narrative for, and key participants in, well-designed, implemented, and maintained government-led monitoring programs. We argue that monitoring programs should be mandated in threatened species conservation programs and all new environmental management initiatives., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The 2019-2020 megafires in Australia brought a tragic loss of human life and the most dramatic loss of habitat for threatened species and devastation of ecological communities in postcolonial history. What must be done now to keep impacted species from extinction? What can be done to avoid a repeat of the impacts of such devastating bushfires? Here, we describe hard-won lessons that may also be of global relevance., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Monitoring of threatened species and threatened ecosystems is critical for determining population trends, identifying urgency of management responses, and assessing the efficacy of management interventions. Yet many threatened species and threatened ecosystems are not monitored and for those that are, the quality of the monitoring is often poor. Here we provide a checklist of factors that need to be considered for inclusion in robust monitoring programs for threatened species and threatened ecosystems. These factors can be grouped under four broad themes - the design of monitoring programs, the structure and governance of monitoring programs, data management and reporting, and appropriate funding and legislative support. We briefly discuss key attributes of our checklist under these themes. Key topics in our first theme of the design of monitoring programs include appropriate objective setting, identification of the most appropriate entities to be measured, consistency in methodology and protocols through time, ensuring monitoring is long-term, and embedding monitoring into management. Under our second theme which focuses on the structure and governance of monitoring programs for threatened species and ecosystems, we touch on the importance of adopting monitoring programs that: test the effectiveness of management interventions, produce results that are relevant to management, and engage with (and are accepted by) the community. Under Theme 3, we discuss why data management is critical and highlight that the costs of data curation, analysis and reporting need to be factored into budgets for monitoring programs. This requires that appropriate levels of funding are made available for monitoring programs, beyond just the cost of data collection - a key topic examined in Theme 4. We provide examples, often from Australia, to highlight the importance of each of the four themes. We recognize that these themes and topics in our checklist are often closely inter-related and therefore provide a conceptual model highlighting these linkages. We suggest that our checklist can help identify the parts of existing monitoring programs for threatened species and threatened ecosystems that are adequate for the purpose or may be deficient and need to be improved., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger-bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Setting aside protected areas is a key strategy for tackling biodiversity loss. Reserve effectiveness depends on the extent to which protected areas capture both known occurrences and areas likely to support the species. We assessed the effectiveness of the existing reserve network for Leadbeater's Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) and other forest-dependent species, and compared the existing reserve system to a set of plausible reserve expansion options based on area targets implied in a recent Population Viability Analysis (PVA). The existing Leadbeater's Reserve and surrounding reserve system captured 7.6% and 29.6% of cumulative habitat suitability, respectively, across the landscape. Expanded reserve scenarios captured 34% to 62% of cumulative habitat suitability. We found acute trade-offs between conserving Leadbeater's Possum habitat and conserving habitat of other forest-dependent species. Our analysis provides a template for systematically expanding and evaluating reserve expansion options in terms of trade-offs between priority species' needs., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well-developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one-time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost-effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost-effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost-effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost-effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost-effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost-effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost-effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost-effective conservation under uncertainty., (© 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a key mechanism for protecting threatened plant and animal species. Many species are not perfectly detectable and, even when present, may remain undetected during EIA surveys, increasing the risk of site-level loss or extinction of species. Numerous methods now exist for estimating detectability of plants and animals. Despite this, regulations concerning survey protocol and effort during EIAs fail to adequately address issues of detectability. Probability of detection is intrinsically linked to survey effort; thus, minimum survey effort requirements are a useful way to address the risks of false absences. We utilized 2 methods for determining appropriate survey effort requirements during EIA surveys. One method determined the survey effort required to achieve a probability of detection of 0.95 when the species is present. The second method estimated the survey effort required to either detect the species or reduce the probability of presence to 0.05. We applied these methods to Pimelea spinscens subsp. spinescens, a critically endangered grassland plant species in Melbourne, Australia. We detected P. spinescens in only half of the surveys undertaken at sites where it was known to exist. Estimates of the survey effort required to detect the species or demonstrate its absence with any confidence were much higher than the effort traditionally invested in EIA surveys for this species. We argue that minimum survey requirements be established for all species listed under threatened species legislation and hope that our findings will provide an impetus for collecting, compiling, and synthesizing quantitative detectability estimates for a broad range of plant and animal species., (© 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Many threatened species depend on climatic microrefugia, but places with harsh climates for predators may also play a refugial role. Feral cats threaten many native species in arid Australia. Although cats can persist in regions with no free water, their abundance should depend on the availability of microclimates that protect them from harsh environmental conditions. We developed a biophysical model of feral cat heat stress and used it to explore how behavior and microhabitat features influence water requirements and activity. Tests of model predictions against fine‐scale GPS and microclimate data highlight the importance of refuges, particularly rabbit burrows. Continent‐wide simulations show large but temporally varying areas of the arid zone that would be lethal for cats without access to deep or shaded burrows. Our approach can identify locations that may act as natural refuges for native prey, and where habitat management strategies may be effective in controlling cat abundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Reconnaissance surveys followed by monitoring are needed to assess the impact and response of biodiversity to wildfire. However, post‐wildfire survey and monitoring design are challenging due to the infrequency and unpredictability of wildfire, an urgency to initiate surveys and uncertainty about how species respond. In this article, we discuss key design considerations and quantitative tools available to aid post‐wildfire survey design. Our motivation was to inform the design of rapid surveys for threatened species heavily impacted by the 2019–2020 fires in Australia. Location: Global. Methods: We discuss a set of best practice design considerations for post‐wildfire reconnaissance surveys across a range of survey objectives. We provide examples that illustrate key design considerations from post‐fire reconnaissance surveys and monitoring programmes from around the world. Results: We highlight how the objective of post‐fire surveys drastically influences design decisions (e.g. survey location and timing). We discuss how the unpredictability of wildfire and uncertainty in the response of biodiversity complicate survey design decisions. Main conclusions: Surveys should be conducted immediately following wildfire to assess the impact on biodiversity, to ground truth fire severity mapping and to provide a benchmark from which to assess recovery. Where possible, surveys should be conducted at burnt and unburnt sites in regions with historical data so that state variables of interest can be compared with baseline estimates (i.e. BACI design). This highlights the need to have long‐term monitoring programmes already in place and be prepared to modify their design when wildfires occur. There is opportunity to adopt tools from statistics (i.e. power analysis) and conservation planning (i.e. spatial prioritization) to improve survey design. We must anticipate wildfires rather than respond to them reactively as they will occur more frequently due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Quantifying species population trends is crucial for monitoring progress towards global conservation targets, justifying investments, planning targeted responses and raising awareness about threatened species. Many global indicators are slow in response and report on common species, not on those at greatest risk of extinction. Here we develop a Threatened Species Index as a dynamic tool for tracking annual changes in Australia's imperiled birds. Based on the Living Planet Index method and containing more than 17,000 time series for 65 bird taxa surveyed systematically, the index at its second iteration shows an average reduction of 59% between 1985 and 2016, and 44% between 2000 and 2016. Decreases seem most severe for shorebirds and terrestrial birds and least severe for seabirds. The index provides a potential means for measuring performance against the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 12, enabling governments, agencies and the public to observe changes in threatened species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent's unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia's Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species' endangerment. These results were significantly different (P < 0.01) from recent analyses of threats to threatened species globally, which highlighted overexploitation, agriculture and urban development as major causes of decline. Australia is distinct not only in the biodiversity it contains but also in the extent and mixture of processes that threaten the survival of these species. Notably, the IUCN threat classification scheme separates the numerous threats (e.g. urban development, agriculture, mining) that cause habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, hence further research is required to quantify the net impact of these types of habitat change. We provide feasible suggestions for a more coordinated national approach to threatened species conservation, which could provide decision makers and managers at all levels with improved resources and information on threats and management. Adequate policy, legislative support and funding are critical for ensuring that on-ground management is successful in halting the decline of Australia's threatened species. Hundreds of Australian species have experienced significant declines since European occupation and are threatened with extinction. In reviewing the threats affecting these species, we find that invasive species, ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) and agriculture are most prevalent. We argue that an improved national approach is needed to mitigate these threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Aim Some threatened species are now recovering after a period of serious decline. Understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal recolonization of these species in a heterogeneous landscape are important for their conservation planning. We aimed to predict the range expansion of the endangered Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon as it recovers from near-extinction to guide its in situ conservation and plan possible reintroductions. Location Central China. Methods We used a presence-only ecological niche model to predict breeding habitat suitability and a newly developed, spatially explicit and individual-based dynamic modelling platform to simulate range expansion. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters on the simulation of range dynamics. The impact of human-induced mortality risk was also investigated. Results Predictions showed that the Asian crested ibis population and the range extent would continue to increase over the next 50 years, and the species would recolonize parts of its historical range. However, the majority of the population would still be restricted to a relatively small region, and some potential suitable regions might not be recolonized for decades by natural dispersal. Moreover, the simulated range dynamics were sensitive to life history trait parameters, among which adult survival probability and the proportion of long-distance dispersal events showed the strongest effects. High human-induced mortality risks had a significant negative effect on population growth and range expansion. Main conclusions This study demonstrates how hybrid modelling can inform conservation management of threatened species as they recolonize former habitat. The findings enable prioritization of management efforts, highlight the need for long-term monitoring of the key life history parameters and provide evidence to guide the selection of potential reintroduction sites for the long-term survival and recovery of target species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Environmental impact assessments ( EIAs) often involve establishing whether a species of concern is present at the site considered for development. When surveys falsely conclude that sites are unoccupied, species prevalence in the region is cumulatively reduced. We argue that setting an acceptable level of induced decline in species occurrence provides a defensible strategy to determine minimum survey effort requirements. We investigate methods for setting such requirements. Location Eastern Australia, although we demonstrate methods applicable wherever species detection data are available to inform survey design. Methods We use probability theory to investigate required survey effort when aiming to limit decline in species occurrence. We use optimization tools to provide a method that, in addition, minimizes overall survey costs. We demonstrate the methods using data for an Australian gliding marsupial. Results A method based on ensuring a constant probability of occupied site misclassification directly links with a prescribed acceptable decline in occurrence. Optimization results indicate that, under particular conditions, a cost-efficient survey effort allocation can be achieved by setting a constant posterior probability of occupancy at sites where the species is not detected, provided the target level is set in accordance with the acceptable decline in occurrence. Our results provide a critical examination of the approach recently proposed by Wintle et al. (2012) for determining minimum survey effort requirements. Main conclusions EIA survey effort requirements should explicitly link uncertainty in establishing species absence with the broader consequences of failing to detect species presence in places subject to proposed impacts. A direct method, which involves keeping a constant probability of occupied site misclassification, only requires information about species detectability. Alternatively, a method that minimizes overall survey costs can be used. This approach also requires occupancy probability estimates so its performance relies on availability of an informative species distribution model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents a study regarding the active adaptive management of the Tasmanian devil which is an endangered species in Australia. It focuses on the management action for a facial tumor disease affecting the endangered species. It states that a stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian model has been adopted to determine the best management strategy to maximize the population of the Tasmanian devil.

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As with most governments worldwide, Australian governments list threatened species and proffer commitments to recovering them. Yet most of Australia's imperiled species continue to decline or go extinct and a contributing cause is inadequate investment in conservation management. However, this has been difficult to evaluate because the extent of funding committed to such recovery in Australia, like in many nations, is opaque. Here, by collating disparate published budget figures of Australian governments, we show that annual spending on targeted threatened species recovery is around U.S.$92m (AU$122m) which is around one tenth of that spent by the U.S. endangered species recovery program, and about 15% of what is needed to avoid extinctions and recover threatened species. Our approach to estimating funding needs for species recovery could be applied in any jurisdiction and could be scaled up to calculate what is needed to achieve international goals for ending the species extinction crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of expert input to spatial conservation prioritization outcomes is poorly understood. We quantified the impacts of refinements made during consultation with experts on spatial conservation prioritization of Christmas Island. There was just 0.57 correlation between the spatial conservation priorities before and after consultation, bottom ranked areas being most sensitive to changes. The inclusion of a landscape condition layer was the most significant individual influence. Changes (addition, removal, modification) to biodiversity layers resulted in a combined 0.2 reduction in correlation between initial and final solutions. Representation of rare species in top ranked areas was much greater after expert consultation; representation of widely distributed species changed relatively little. Our results show how different inputs have notably different impacts on the final plan. Understanding these differences helps plan time and resources for expert consultation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent's unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia's Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species' endangerment. These results were significantly different (P 0.01) from recent analyses of threats to threatened species globally, which highlighted overexploitation, agriculture and urban development as major causes of decline. Australia is distinct not only in the biodiversity it contains but also in the extent and mixture of processes that threaten the survival of these species. Notably, the IUCN threat classification scheme separates the numerous threats (e.g. urban development, agriculture, mining) that cause habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, hence further research is required to quantify the net impact of these types of habitat change. We provide feasible suggestions for a more coordinated national approach to threatened species conservation, which could provide decision makers and managers at all levels with improved resources and information on threats and management. Adequate policy, legislative support and funding are critical for ensuring that on-ground management is successful in halting the decline of Australia's threatened species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's extinction crisis is escalating, and threat classification schemes are increasingly important for assessing the prominent drivers and threats causing species declines. However, a complementary framework for assessing the conservation responses needed to abate these threatening processes is lacking. Here we draw on expert knowledge and published literature to develop a threat-abatement framework which groups threats based on the shared conservation goal of the actions needed to abate their impact and apply it to 1532 threatened species across the Australian continent. Our analysis shows that the most important conservation actions across Australia are to retain and restore habitat, due to the threats posed by habitat destruction and degradation (via logging, mining, urbanisation, roads, and agriculture) to 86 % of Australia's threatened species. Most species also require the effective control of invasive species and diseases (82 %) and improved fire management (66 %). Countering individual threats will not be enough to support species survival or recovery, because almost all species (89 %) require multiple, integrated management responses to redress their threats. Our threat abatement framework enables rapid identification of broad conservation responses to aid recovery of threatened species and can be applied in other regions, scales and contexts. • Threat classifications need complementary conservation responses to inform action • We develop a threat-abatement framework and apply it to Australian threatened species • The most important conservation action in Australia is to retain and restore habitat • Control of invasive species/diseases and improved fire management are also important • Greater emphasis on conservation responses is needed to redress the extinction crisis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]