1. How to achieve the synergic emission abatement of volatile organic compounds and carbon dioxide in China: Socio-economic drivers and prospective trends.
- Author
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Zhu, Shuicheng, Qiu, Xiaowen, Huang, Beijia, Zhang, Xi, Shao, Shuai, Geng, Yong, Fan, Meiting, and Zhu, Jinye
- Subjects
CARBON emissions ,MONTE Carlo method ,ENERGY consumption ,VOLATILE organic compounds ,CARBON dioxide - Abstract
The synergic reduction of VOCs and CO 2 emissions is significant for achieving sustainable development. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation are used to investigate the socio-economic influencing factors of VOCs and CO 2 emissions and predict the future trends of VOCs and CO 2 emissions. The results show that during 1995–2020, the per capita GDP effect contributed the most to VOCs and CO 2 emission increase, followed by population effect. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect was the largest contributor for VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease, followed by energy structure effect. The synergic effect was evident in VOCs emission decrease, indicating that achieving a co-reduction in VOCs and CO 2 emissions has been increasingly possible. During different Five-Year Plan periods of China, per capita GDP maintained the largest driver of VOCs and CO 2 emission increase, while energy intensity kept the crucial driver of VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease. During 2020–2035, the synergic reduction of both VOCs and CO 2 emissions will be realized under lower-emission (LU) scenario, while the trajectories of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will show a synergic growth under higher-emission (HU) scenario. The future trends of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will show an opposite direction under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Based on such results, several policy implications are proposed, including developing energy-saving technologies, clean energy utilization, eco-friendly way of life, and optimized government management mechanism. • Key socio-economic drivers of VOCs and CO 2 emissions in China are uncovered. • Scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are used for projecting the emissions. • Energy intensity and energy structure effects drove VOCs and CO 2 emission decrease. • Synergic reduction of VOCs and CO 2 emissions will be realized under LU scenario. • Policy implications are proposed for synergic emission abatement of VOCs and CO 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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