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Accurate and realistic electricity demand projection has attained greatest ever importance in overall energy planning. Various methods are found in the literature for electricity demand forecasting ranging from econometric models to statistical tools and the energy models. The demand of electricity in the country has increased along with the number of electricity consumers in Pakistan over last 2-3 decades. However, the countrys energy and power departments capacity to rationally forecast electricity demand and subsequent planning as well as the implementation of developed strategies has not delivered to meet the demand. This paper examines the long-term electricity demand forecasting approaches and specifically reviews the demand projection studies as well as methodologies used in the past. There are mainly five consumer groups identified in the electricity sector of Pakistan i.e. domestic, commercial, industrial, agriculture and other. The growth parameters of each of these groups are pivotal to more accurate electricity demand projection. The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for nearly 40 years following the independence was responsible for power sector planning. However, following the restructuring of WAPDA, National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) in coordination with Distribution Companies (DISCOs) undertake electricity demand projection studies. This review finally identifies various loopholes in electricity planning and suggests various parameters and steps which require due consideration for electricity demand forecasting in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Pakistan is facing electricity crises owing to lack of integrated energy planning, reliance on imported fuels for power generation, and poor governance. This situation has challenged governments for over a decade to address these crises. However, despite various conformist planning and policy initiatives, the balance between demand and supply of electricity is yet to be achieved. In this study, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to develop Pakistan's LEAP modeling framework for the period 2015–2050. Following demand forecast, four supply side scenarios; Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) are enacted considering resource potential, techno-economic parameters, and CO 2 emissions. The model results estimate the demand forecast of 1706.3 TWh in 2050, at an annual average growth rate of 8.35%, which is 19 times higher than the base year demand. On the supply side, RET scenario, although capital-intensive earlier in the modeling period, is found to be the sustainable electricity generation path followed by EEC scenario with the lower demand of 1373.2 TWh and minimum Net Present Value (NPV) at an aggregate discount rate of 6%. Conclusion section of the paper provides the recommendations devised from this study results. Highlights • Pakistan's electricity system modeled for the period of 2015–2050 using LEAP tool. • Electricity demand for Pakistan in 2050 has been forecasted as 1706 TWh • Energy efficiency & conservation scenario decreases 20% of electricity demand by 2050. • Four supply side scenarios developed to meet both of these forecasted demands. • Role of energy efficiency improvement & renewable energy integration is significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]