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Wave phenomena impact high commercial value coastal and offshore activities, infrastructures and transportation. The knowledge of future wave conditions allows for consistent long‐term planning and decision‐making. The present study aims to provide robust, reliable projections of the potential future wave conditions of the Black Sea under the influence of climate change. For this purpose, an eight‐member dynamic wave climate ensemble that accurately represents the Black Sea's present wave climate has been produced, and future projections are assessed and analysed here. The wave climate ensemble was obtained by forcing the Simulating Waves Nearshore spectral wave model with eight regional wind fields from the EURO‐CORDEX. The future simulations of the regional wind fields are based on the RCP8.5 high‐emission scenario. The historical wave climate of the ensemble was evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data. Projected changes in the mean wind and wave characteristics are examined by comparing historical and future simulations. In addition, the projected trends in the annual means during the future period of the wave simulations for significant wave height (Hs) and wave energy flux are also analysed. The projections for Hs and wind speeds are pronounced with significant decreases down to −10% across the basin, especially in the eastern region of the Black Sea. Changes in the Hs 99% percentiles of up to 16% are projected to occur. The projected changes in the annual mean of the wave energy flux are close to the projected changes in Hs means, while the seasonal changes (between −15% and 12%) are expected to be higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the performance of a dynamic ensemble of wave climate simulations for the Black Sea. The ensemble members (and ensemble means) are evaluated for the historical period (1979–2005). The spectral wave model (simulating waves nearshore [SWAN]) was forced with eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) based Regional Climate Models (RCMs) wind fields to obtain each of the eight ensemble members. The RCM‐forcings used belongs to the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO‐CORDEX). The ensemble members' historical wave climate is thoroughly compared against the ERA5 reanalysis, in situ observations, and altimeter measurements. In addition to the individual evaluation of ensemble members, the results for the 8‐member ensemble mean are also examined. The performance of the ensemble members in reproducing the mean and extreme significant wave heights, mean wave periods, and mean wave directions is found to be good, with differences generally between +25 and −15% in comparison to ERA5. Differences between +10% and −30% were found for the comparison with altimeter measurements. We conclude that the ensemble better represents the wave climate of the Black Sea, than its individual members. The 8‐member ensemble provides a more balanced dataset for the Black Sea wave climate and a better representation of the associated uncertainty. Thus, further wave climate projections for the Black Sea should rely on the use of an ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]