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The opportunity to benefit from climate prediction arises from the intersection of human vulnerability, climate predictability, and decision capacity. Climate forecasts, like other technical innovations, are not an unambiguous boon to growers. Florida's tomato industry was shown vulnerable to predictable climate variability. This industry is characterized by a small number of decision makers who may have profound influence on aggregate supply, prices, grower's decision capacity, and potential benefits of climate predictions. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential benefits of ENSO forecast information as a function of the scale of adoption. Using a participatory approach, biophysical modeling, and economic modeling, we estimated the value of ENSO forecasts at the field, farm, and regional scales for Florida's fresh tomato production. Simulated yield reductions in El Niño years relative to neutral years (∼20%) compared closely with historical results (∼23%). At the field scale, we showed that growers can adjust planting dates to reduce negative impacts of El Niño on yields and increase productivity during La Niña years. Adoption of climate forecast can help growers increase income and reduce costs at the farm scale. At the regional scale, the aggregate forecast value to producers increased with increasing adoption. However, our simulation results suggest that widespread forecast adoption can offset and perhaps eliminate the benefits of forecast adoption to individual tomato growers. Climate forecasts are an emerging technical innovation that may improve productive efficiency for Florida's tomato growers. However, if tomato growers' responses to ENSO forecasts will affect agricultural markets, then growers should consider those market changes when deciding whether to adopt these forecasts. Future development of technology to apply climate forecasts in the tomato industry should focus on strategies to reduce costs rather than to increase tomato production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study illustrates the potential synergies and conflicts of interest between farmers and insurers in the selection of an optimal crop insurance contract. Special attention is given to how climate information influences this decision-making process. To do so, we consider a representative 40 ha, rainfed, cotton-peanut farm located in Jackson County, Florida. Our results show that year-to-year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based climate variability affects farmers' and insurers' net returns according to crop insurance contracts. Introduction of ENSO-based climate forecasts presents a significant impact on the selection of a particular contract to both the farmer and the insurer. We conclude that insurers and farmers can bridge their divergent interests by improving their understanding of the effect of climate conditions on the development of sustainable business plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictability of seasonal climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests a potential to reduce farm risk by selecting crop insurance products with the purpose of increasing farm income stability. A hypothetical 50% peanut, 50% cotton, non-irrigated, 40 ha (100 ac) north Florida farm was used to study the interactions of different crop insurance products with ENSO-based climate information and levels of risk aversion under uncertain conditions of climate and prices. Crop yields simulated by the DSSAT suite of crop models using multiyear weather data combined with historical series of prices were used to generate long series of stochastic income distributions in a whole-farm model portfolio. The farm model optimized planting dates and simulated uncertain incomes for 50 alternative crop insurance combinations for different levels of risk aversion under different planning horizons. Results suggested that incomes are greatest and most stable for low risk-averse farmers when catastrophic (CAT) insurance for cotton and 70% or 75% actual production history (APH) for peanut are selected in all ENSO phases. For high risk-averse farmers, the best strategy depends on the ENSO phase: (1) 70% crop revenue coverage (CRC) or CAT for cotton and 65% APH for peanut during EL Niño years; (2) CAT for cotton and 65%, 70%, or 75% APH for peanut during neutral years; and (3) 65% to 70% APH, or CAT for cotton and 70% APH for peanut during La Niña years. Optimal planting dates varied for all ENSO phases, risk aversion levels, and selected crop insurance products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research shows that Florida's climate and agricultural production are influenced by the El Nin˜o-Southern Oscillation, suggesting that farmers and ranchers might use new methods of climate forecasting to modify management, increase profits and reduce economic risks. The purposes of this paper are to describe the framework used by a Florida Consortium (FC) of researchers to assess the potential use of climate forecasts in agricultural decision-making and to summarize what was learned in the research process. The framework includes components for generation, communication and use of climate information as well as an implementation and evaluation component. Results showed that winter months are affected most by ENSO phase (higher rainfall and lower temperatures in El Nin˜o years and the opposite during La Nin˜a years). Yields of most crops were significantly associated with ENSO phase as were prices of some commodities. Through various mechanisms of interacting with farmers, ranchers, and extension faculty, we learned that interest in climate forecasts varied widely from highly optimistic to skeptical, and that these clients had good ideas of how to vary management if they have good forecasts. Case studies aimed at understanding potential value and risks associated with use of climate forecasts were conducted for winter fresh market tomato, cow-calf operations, and peanut production. Analytical results, confirmed by interactions with clients, showed significant value in using climate forecasts to alter specific decisions. Risks of using climate information varied among commodities, with considerable risk found in tomato due to the strong link between production and price. Perhaps the most important lesson learned was the importance of engaging trusted advisors in research and outreach efforts. A major output of the project was the close cooperation established between the FC and the Florida Cooperative Extension Service. Prospects for sustaining a climate information program in Florida are high due to joint research and extension initiatives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]