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Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

Background Rural and semi-rural areas are complex and dynamic social-ecological systems, many of which have experienced profound impacts from wildland fires, particularly this decade. Under uncertain climate change conditions, these areas require new adaptive strategies to support landscape and community resilience. While these areas vary widely, some patterns of local social context have become apparent through wildland fire research. These patterns can help decision-makers better understand what influences communities’ abilities to adapt to fire. We focused our study on a northwestern European Mediterranean context, where communities are adapting to wildland fire and other climate change impacts through varied programs and policies. This area is composed of diverse landscapes, cultures, histories, languages and governance structures, but it also shares fire-based learning networks and collaborations, providing a sound indicator of shared elements of social context. Our study analyzed local social contexts in rural areas of Spain, Italy and France and assessed how these may inform adaptive capacity to wildland fire. A two-step process achieved this: (1) a targeted literature review of local social context elements as they relate to wildland fire in Mediterranean Europe; and (2) conducting semi-structured interviews with 20 key experts in rural Mediterranean areas, including fire managers, foresters, local administrators and technicians. Results Results illustrate numerous shared patterns in rural social contexts that influence local fire adaptive capacity. Dynamic local relationships among residents, local fire knowledge and environmental movements, the role of fire managers and administrators, and embeddedness in broader sociopolitical trends all interconnect to influence local fire adaptive capacity. Some key elements of context can act as primary enablers or barriers to this process, such as the presence (or lack) of local fire knowledge, and the opportunity (or lack thereof) for sustainable local economic development. Results also demonstrate high diversity in terms of governance structures and development trajectories. Conclusions We argue the need for deepened empirical transdisciplinary research to connect fire and land management tailored to local characteristics. Centering these local perspectives and diverse cultural values is necessary to foster long term adaptive wildland fire management strategies in rural Mediterranean communities and globally.

The population in the Black Sea region is expected to decline in the future. However, a better understanding of how river pollution is affected by declining trends in population and increasing trends in economic developments and urbanization is needed. This study aims to quantify future trends in point-source emissions of nutrients, microplastics, Cryptosporidium, and triclosan to 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea. We apply a multi-pollutant model for 2010, 2050, and 2100. In the future, over half of the rivers will be more polluted than in 2010. The population in 74 sub-basins may drop by over 25% in our economic scenario with poor wastewater treatment. Over two-thirds of the people will live in cities and the economy may grow 9-fold in the region. Advanced wastewater treatment could minimize trade-offs between economy and pollution: our Sustainability scenario projects a 68–98% decline in point-source pollution by 2100. Making this future reality will require coordinated international efforts.

Background Wildfire management is increasingly shifting from firefighting to wildfire prevention aiming at disaster risk reduction. This implies fuel and landscape management and engagement with stakeholders. This transition is comparable to the history of water management in the Netherlands, which shifted from fighting against water to flood risk reduction and living with water. Here, we draw lessons from water management for integrated fire management that are useful for society, agencies, and government. To this end, we review the literature on integrated and adaptive water management in the Netherlands. Results Based on the results, we argue that (1) a holistic and integrated approach, (2) adaptive management, and (3) resilient landscapes through stakeholder participation are necessary to improve the resilience against and prevention of wildfires within integrated fire management. Conclusion To make society more resilient to wildfires and shift to a greater focus on prevention within disaster risk reduction, there is a need to take a more long-term perspective and include a wider range of stakeholders to develop new wildfire policies. Integrated fire management should facilitate and promote community initiatives to implement fire risk reduction measures in different landscapes and the wildland urban interface (WUI) including the use of nature-based solutions. Inspired by the successes in Dutch water management, fire management needs greater participation of stakeholders and collaboration between stakeholders to share responsibility and knowledge to make wildfire prevention more attractive and implementable by society, landowners, civil protection, and policymakers.

Controlling non-point source pollution is often difficult and costly. Therefore, focusing on areas that contribute the most, so-called critical source areas (CSAs), can have economic and ecological benefits. CSAs are often determined using a modelling approach, yet it has proved difficult to calibrate the models in regions with limited data availability. Since identifying CSAs is based on the relative contributions of sub-basins to the total load, it has been suggested that uncalibrated models could be used to identify CSAs to overcome data scarcity issues. Here, we use the SWAT model to study the extent to which an uncalibrated model can be applied to determine CSAs. We classify and rank sub-basins to identify CSAs for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Fengyu River Watershed (China) with and without model calibration. The results show high similarity (81%-93%) between the identified sediment and TP CSA number and locations before and after calibration both on the yearly and seasonal scale. For TN alone, the results show moderate similarity on the yearly scale (73%). This may be because, in our study area, TN is determined more by groundwater flow after calibration than by surface water flow. We conclude that CSA identification with the uncalibrated model for TP is always good because its CSA number and locations changed least, and for sediment, it is generally satisfactory. The use of the uncalibrated model for TN is acceptable, as its CSA locations did not change after calibration; however, the TN CSA number decreased by around 60% compared to the figures before calibration on both yearly and seasonal scales. Therefore, we advise using an uncalibrated model to identify CSAs for TN only if water yield composition changes are expected to be limited. This study shows that CSAs can be identified based on relative loading estimates with uncalibrated models in data-deficient regions.

Lake Baiyangdian provides water in northern China. Agriculture contributes to nutrient pollution in this lake. This especially holds for livestock production with poor nutrient and manure management. Furthermore, a new urban area is currently developing in the basin. This increases demand for food in cities and feed for animals. This study aims to explore sustainable options to reduce nutrient losses from livestock production systems to Lake Baiyangdian between 2012 and 2050, taking urbanization into account. We used the MARINA-Lakes model to analyze future trends in nutrient pollution at the sub-basin scale, using four scenarios that consider nutrient management and intensified crop and animal production. Model results show that between 2012 and 2050, river export of nutrients to Lake Baiyangdian almost doubled in our baseline scenario without improved nutrient and manure management. As a result, the lake is expected to receive 9623 Mg of total dissolved nitrogen and 448 Mg of total dissolved phosphorus in 2050. Additional restrictions to livestock production did not reduce the projected river export of nutrients to the lake much. Increased recycling of manure could decrease the river export of nutrients by 40% by 2050. The river export of all nutrients is projected to decrease to one-third to half of the 2012 export in our optimistic nutrient management scenario, which assumes that the available animal manure is reallocated to areas where crop demand for nutrients is high. This avoids direct discharges of animal manure to rivers. Our study shows that additional policies are needed to effectively recycle animal manure in crop production systems. Effective sewage treatment is also important for pollution control in the lake, given the anticipated urbanization.

Palm oil production has increased in Thailand with considerable environmental impacts. The aim of this study is to analyse possibilities to examine how the environmental sustainability of Thai palm oil production can be improved in the coming decades. To this end, we integrated a sectoral and a landscape model in order to analyse scenarios for 2050. We do this with a focus on options to reduce (1) the effects of land-use-change on ecosystem services, and (2) the environmental impact of oil palm plantations and palm oil mills. Four future scenarios are developed; business-as-usual (BAU), current-policy (CP), strong-growth (GRT) and green-development (GRN). The BAU scenario indicates that environmental impacts may double without additional improvement options. The CP scenario shows that current plans to increase palm oil production would considerably increase environmental impacts. Implementing only cost-effective options, as in the GRT scenario, is also not enough to avoid an increase in environmental impacts if the export of palm oil increases faster than currently envisaged. The GRN scenario assumes implementation of a combination of effective options, regardless of their costs. This would considerably reduce environmental impacts. Thus it is technically possible to improve environmental performance of palm oil production in Thailand.

Assessing global water quality issues requires a multi-pollutant modelling approach. We discuss scientific challenges and future directions for such modeling. Multi-pollutant river models need to integrate information on sources of pollutants such as plastic debris, nutrients, chemicals, pathogens, their effects and possible solutions. In this paper, we first explain what we consider multi-pollutant modelling. Second, we discuss scientific challenges in multi-pollutant modelling relating to consistent model inputs, modelling approaches and model evaluation. Next, we illustrate the potential of global multi-pollutant modelling for hotspot analyses. We show hotspots of river pollution with microplastics, nutrients, triclosan and Cryptosporidium in many sub-basins of Europe, North America and South Asia. Finally, we reflect on future directions for multi-pollutant modelling, and for linking model results to policy-making.

Years of poor nutrient management practices in the agriculture industry in the North China Plain have led to large losses of nutrients to the environment, causing severe ecological consequences. Analyzing farm nutrient flows is urgently needed in order to reduce nutrient losses. A farm-level nutrient flow model was developed in this study based on the NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model, and was used to analyze nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows, use efficiencies, and losses for nine representative farm types in the North China Plain. Data from 401 farms were evaluated for the years 2012–2015. The analysis showed that mixed farms were more efficient in nutrient utilization than crop-based or landless livestock farms. The efficiencies of N and P used in crop production were highest for mixed dairy farms, reaching 67% for N and 68% for P. Consistently, mixed dairy farms had the lowest N and P surpluses and losses in crop production. Mixed swine farms were 5 and 9% higher in N and P efficiency in livestock production than landless swine farms, respectively. Losses of N and P from the animal manure management chain were 20–42% lower for mixed swine and 69–78% lower for mixed poultry farms than for landless farms of the same animal type. This is at least partially due to more frequent manure removal. Integrated crop-livestock production using livestock wastes as crop fertilizer was shown to be the most sustainable model in nutrient use for the agriculture industry in the North China Plain.

In Indonesia, peatlands are still being converted into oil palm plantations. The associated fires and peat oxidation result in smoke and large carbon emissions. In the medium term, peatlands should be used for production systems that do not require (or require much less) drainage. In this context, this study aims to explore scenarios for the withdrawal of oil palm plantations from peatlands in Jambi province and the associated carbon emissions in the coming decades. We first analyzed past land-use change trends in Jambi peatlands. Then, we analyzed three scenarios for the future: (1) a baseline scenario, assuming further expansions by smallholders, but not by companies, (2) a scenario assuming withdrawal from peat by companies only, and (3) a scenario assuming withdrawal from peat by companies and smallholders. In both scenarios 1 and 2, it is assumed smallholders keep on expanding oil palm plantations in peatlands up to 2020 but not thereafter. To accommodate economic interests of growers, withdrawal of oil palm plantations is assumed to only take place when the palm trees are 25 years old and their productivity starts declining. Our study shows that there has been a rapid expansion of oil palm plantations in peatlands of Jambi from 30,000 ha in 1987 to 483,000 ha in 2014. In our baseline scenario, involving commitments from companies but not from smallholders, the area of oil palm further increases by 20% between 2014 and 2040; this implies that by 2040, almost all peatlands, including those in the buffer zone of Berbak National Park, will have been converted to plantations. The corresponding greenhouse gas emissions are 53 Mt CO 2 -equivalent per year (from both peat decomposition and fires). In the scenario assuming withdrawal of company plantations from peatlands, the plantation area will be reduced to half that in the baseline scenario in 2040. This would decrease CO 2 -equivalent emissions in 2040 to below 2010 levels (27.9 Mt per year). Our study shows that a substantial decrease in emissions is only possible in scenario 3 with an almost full withdrawal of plantations from peatlands by 2040. This reduces CO 2 -equivalent emissions to the level of 2000 (4.3 Mt per year) and leads to safeguarding the remaining pristine peat swamp forest in Berbak National Park.

Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea and infant mortality worldwide. A better understanding of the sources, fate and transport of Cryptosporidium via rivers is important for effective management of waterborne transmission, especially in the developing world. We present GloWPa-Crypto C1, the first global, spatially explicit model that computes Cryptosporidium concentrations in rivers, implemented on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid and monthly time step. To this end, we first modelled Cryptosporidium inputs to rivers from human faeces and animal manure. Next, we use modelled hydrology from a grid-based macroscale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model). Oocyst transport through the river network is modelled using a routing model, accounting for temperature- and solar radiation-dependent decay and sedimentation along the way. Monthly average oocyst concentrations are predicted to range from 10−6 to 102 oocysts L−1 in most places. Critical regions (‘hotspots’) with high concentrations include densely populated areas in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa, Mexico, Venezuela and some coastal areas of Brazil, several countries in Western and Eastern Europe (incl. The UK, Belgium and Macedonia), and the Middle East. Point sources (human faeces) appears to be a more dominant source of pollution than diffuse sources (mainly animal manure) in most world regions. Validation shows that GloWPa-Crypto medians are mostly within the range of observed concentrations. The model generally produces concentrations that are 1.5–2 log10 higher than the observations. This is likely predominantly due to the absence of recovery efficiency of the observations, which are therefore likely too low. Goodness of fit statistics are reasonable. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is most sensitive to changes in input oocyst loads. GloWPa-Crypto C1 paves the way for many new opportunities at the global scale, including scenario analysis to investigate the impact of global change and management options on oocysts concentrations in rivers, and risk analysis to investigate human health risk.

The Thai government has ambitious plan to further promote the use of biodiesel. However, there has been insufficient consideration on the environmental effects of oil palm expansion in Thailand. This paper focuses on the effects of oil palm expansion on land use. We analysed the direct land use change (dLUC) and indirect land use change (iLUC) caused by the oil palm expansion and its effects on ecosystem services supply. Our analysis shows that between 2000 and 2009 dLUC related to oil palm expansion was more prevalent than iLUC. dLUC involved new oil palm plantations replacing cropland rather than natural ecosystems. Rubber was most frequently replaced by oil palm but there was also conversion of natural ecosystems. Later, between 2009 and 2012, iLUC strongly increased. Forests were cleared for rubber production as an indirect effect of oil palm expansion. We also quantified the effects of land use change on selected ecosystem services. Oil palm expansion led to increased production of fresh fruit bunches; however, it reduced other crop production such as latex, rice and fruits. Biodiversity conservation was also negatively affected. Carbon storage was positively affected by conversion of unused land, rice and orchard area by oil palm, but negatively affected by the conversion of forests.

There is an increasing demand for palm oil worldwide. In Thailand, oil palm is being promoted by the government but this expansion is associated with several environmental impacts. We identified 26 options for reducing the environmental impact of palm oil production in Thailand, and assessed their cost-effectiveness. Our analysis includes measures that can be taken in plantations as well as in palm oil mills. We analysed the effects of the options in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone formation, human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity. Our analysis shows that empty fruit bunch (EFB) combustion, wet scrubbers and pre-heating fiber are the most effective in reducing multiple impacts. Among these, EFB combustion results in the largest environmental improvement, but at relatively high costs. Several options are found to be not only effective, but also generate a positive net return. These include cover crops, harvesting ripe fruits, mulching EFB, EFB composting, EFB pellets production, oil loss recovery from decanter cake and pre-heating fiber. The most paying options are mulching EFB, harvesting ripe fruits and cover crops. Our results are relevant for the promotion of more environmental friendly oil palm production in Thailand.

The global demand for palm oil has been increasing during the past two decades. As a result, there has been an expansion of oil palm plantations and palm oil production, in particular in South East Asia. This contributes to a number of environmental problems. In this study, we focus on non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from palm oil production in Thailand, the third largest palm oil producing country in the world. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is typically emitted during fuel combustion in production processes. In addition, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are emitted during palm oil production. We quantified current and future emissions of CH4 and N2O based on future projections for palm oil production in Thailand. Our analysis distinguishes between emissions from oil palm plantations and palm oil processing mills. Our study shows that nitrogen fertilizers are the main source of N2O emissions, while CH4 is emitted mainly from inappropriate management of empty fruit bunches and wastewater management. We also analysed the effect of possible options to reduce emissions of CH4 and N2O, illustrating the potential for emission reduction in the future.

The Pearl River (Zhujiang in Chinese) has been exporting excess of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), causing eutrophication in the coastal waters of southern China for decades. However, sources of these nutrients and their locations are not well studied for the Pearl River basin. As a consequence, it is difficult to formulate effective management options to reduce these nutrients in the river and to prevent further eutrophication. We developed a sub-basin model based onto the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model for the period of 1970–2050 to analyze trends in dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP) and to identify the main sources of these nutrients and their locations. We validated our model by comparing modeled nutrient fluxes with observed. Future analyses are based on Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario that assumes a globalized world with a reactive environmental management. DIN and DIP inputs to the coastal waters are calculated to increase by a factor of 2–2.5 between 1970 and 2050. Over two-thirds of the DIN and DIP inputs to the coastal waters stem from two down-stream basins (Zhujiang delta and Dongjiang), where agriculture and sewage are important drivers of this increase. Agriculture accounts for over 40 % of DIN inputs to coastal waters. Sewage and agriculture account for over 90 % of DIP inputs. Thus nutrient management in agriculture and sewage in down-stream areas is more effective in reducing coastal eutrophication than nutrient management in up- and middle-stream areas of the Pearl River basin.

Thailand is currently the world's largest natural rubber producer. To maintain a leadership position of natural rubber producer, it has been challenging for Thai rubber entrepreneurs to seek appropriate measures towards producing environmentally friendly rubber products. The objective of this study is to assess the potential environmental impact of concentrated latex production by partial Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and to investigate the effects of the options to reduce the impact. The methodology is based on the ISO 14040 series, taking a "Gate-to-Gate" approach (Partial LCA). The activities taken into account include production of chemicals, production of diesel and electricity, diesel combustion, and wastewater treatment. The functional unit is 1 ton of concentrated latex, and the environmental impacts considered in this study include global warming, acidification, eutrophication, human toxicity, photochemical oxidation, and the total environmental impact. The results indicate that electricity use for centrifugation has the largest share, compared with other activities, in global warming (50%), acidification (58%), and photochemical oxidation (55%). Ammonia use for latex preservation accounts for 37% of human toxicity, whereas use of DAP (Diammonium phosphate) accounts for 46% of eutrophication. Based on these results, the following reduction options are therefore identified: 1) electricity efficiency improvement (by installation of inverters to centrifugal machines); 2) improvement of ammonia preparation and storage (by chilling systems); 3) minimizing the use of DAP (by extending coagulation time); and 4) substitution of diesel by LPG. These four options were technically and practically feasible for concentrated latex production, and result in reductions of the total environmental impact by 12%, 8%, 3%, and 5%, respectively.

In Europe, the use of biodiesel may increase rapidly in the coming decades as a result of policies aiming to increase the use of renewable fuels. Therefore, the production of biofuels from energy crops is expected to increase as well as the use of fertilisers to grow these crops. Since fertilisers are an important cause of eutrophication, the use of biodiesel may have an effect on the water quality in rivers and coastal seas. In this study we explored the possible effects of increased biodiesel use on coastal eutrophication in European seas in the year 2050. To this end, we defined a number of illustrative scenarios in which the biodiesel production increases to about 10–30% of the current diesel use. The scenarios differ with respect to the assumptions on where the energy crops are cultivated: either on land that is currently used for agriculture, or on land used for other purposes. We analysed these scenarios with the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model. We used an existing Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario for 2050, Global Orchestration (GO2050), as a baseline. In this baseline scenario the amount of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) exported by European rivers to coastal seas decreases between 2000 and 2050 as a result of environmental and agricultural policies. In our scenarios with increased biodiesel production the river export of N and P increases between 2000 and 2050, indicating that energy crop production may more than counterbalance this decrease. Largest increases in nutrient export were calculated for the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Differences in nutrient export among river basins are large.

There are several concerns related to the increasing production of palm oil in Southeast Asia, including pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and land conversion. The RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil) certification standard provides an incentive for reducing environmental impacts of palm oil production but to date, only few producers have been certified and studies on environmental implications of RSPO certification in Thailand are scarce. The objective of this study is to assess environmental impacts of palm oil production in Thailand. A case study is conducted in the Tapi River basin, accounting for 60% of palm oil production in Thailand. We developed a model to quantify effects of different management practices in plantations and mills producing Crude-Palm-Oil (CPO) – including non-RSPO, potential RSPO, and RSPO certified producers. Our study shows that five activities contribute most to environmental impacts of CPO production; 1) burning fibers in boilers,2) use of fertilizers, 3) wastewater treatment and empty-fruit-bunch disposal, 4) gasoline use in weed cutters and 5) glyphosate use for weed control. Together these activities cause environmental impacts associated with global warming, ozone formation, acidification, and human toxicity problems. RSPO certified producers cause the lowest environmental impacts due to better waste management such as biogas production from wastewater. We found that environmental performance of the most environmental friendly mills considerably exceeds the RSPO standards, which may be related to the interventions of an environmental project in the Tapi basin. Currently, only 11% of CPO in the Tapi River basin is produced by RSPO certified mills, and non-CPO certified mills produce around 60% of CPO. Most of environmental impacts of palm oil production in the basin are therefore caused by non-RSPO certified palm oil mills. We explored two alternative scenarios illustrating that if more mills in the basin would adopt best-practice CPO production processes in line with those group named “RSPO certified”, environmental impacts generated in the basin will be considerably lower.

The Bay of Bengal includes coastal seas of several countries, including Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. We present scenarios for future river export of eutrophying nutrients into the Bay of Bengal, and the role of urbanization therein. We used NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model to analyze trends over the period 1970–2050. The scenarios are based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and indicate the number of people living in urban areas may increase from 22 % in 1970 to about 50 % in 2050. We show that this may considerably increase nutrient levels in rivers from sewage and other sources. For 2050, we calculate that harmful algal blooms may be a potential problem in coastal waters of about 95 % of the total drainage basin of the Bay of Bengal. In addition, we analyze Bangladeshi citizens’ expectations of future trends and how citizens with different worldviews would experience environmental changes (i.e., their lived experience). The citizens indicate that trends as envisaged in our scenarios may be a negative experience. However, some people may experience the trends as positive, because they expected worse.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important contributor to climate change. Human waste is an important source of N2O emissions in several world regions, and its share in global emissions may increase in the future. In this paper we, therefore, address N2O emission from human waste: collected (from treatment and from sewage discharges) and uncollected waste. We review existing literature on emissions and emission factors, and present region-specific estimates of N2O emissions and their past and future trends. We show that human waste may became an important source of N2O emissions in the coming years as a result of increasing urbanization. About two-thirds of the global emissions are from uncollected waste, and about half from South Asia. We argue that more research is needed to improve emission factors.

The global food system is a main source of nitrous oxide (N2O), estimated at 4.1–4.4 Tg N2O-N for 2010. Here, we review this source and assess its mitigation potential. Five mitigation strategies were explored and compared to a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) scenario: firstly, improved crop production; secondly, improved animal production; thirdly, improved manure management; fourthly improved food utilization; and finally, less animal-derived protein in diets. In the BAU scenario, emissions increased to 6.4 Tg for 2030 and 7.5 Tg for 2050. Emission reduction strategies could potentially reduce emissions to 4.1 Tg in 2030 and to 3.3 Tg in 2050, but there is considerable uncertainty in these estimates. In conclusion, packages of coherent strategies may offset the projected increases in N2O emissions from the global food system.

We analyzed the socioeconomic and environmental changes in rural China from the perspective of agricultural households and developed a multi-agent agricultural household model for rural environmental management (MAREM). The MAREM model consists of four submodules: the agricultural household production module, the consumption module, the labor supply module, and the environmental assessment module. In the model, virtual agricultural households exist in a hypothetical village. Farmers follow a self-adaptive approach to learn and understand policy variations, in order to make relevant decisions. The model has been validated through simulation of actual trends (the based-on-reality scenario). On the basis of this scenario, we further analyzed possible future trends in rural environmental pollution in China. Our results reflect that China may enter a period of farmer income stagnation accompanied by a rapid deterioration in rural environmental quality. Ammonia emission from livestock production may become the primary agricultural source of air pollution, and eutrophication is calculated to be the major water pollution issue for the long term. Synthetic fertilizer application is projected to be the dominant source of total nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in aquatic system (contributing to about 64% and 46% of the total discharge, respectively). Our study shows that MAREM is an effective tool to analyze the interactions between agricultural households' behavior and environmental consequences under specific policies in China.

Rivers export increasing amounts of dissolved inorganic (DIN, DIP) and organic (DON, DOP) nitrogen and phosphorus to the Black Sea causing coastal eutrophication. The aim of this study is to explore future trends in river export of these nutrients to the sea through a sensitivity analysis. We used the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model to this end. We calculated that between 2000 and 2050 nutrient inputs to the Black Sea may increase or decrease, depending on the assumed environmental management. We analyzed the effects of agricultural and sewage management on nutrient inputs to the sea in 2050 relative to two Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios, Global Orchestration (GO) and Adaptive Mosaic (AM). In these baselines, total N and P inputs to the Black Sea decrease between 2000 and 2050, but not for all rivers and nutrient forms. Our results indicate that it is possible to reduce nutrient inputs to the sea further between 2000 and 2050 in particular for dissolved inorganic N and P and for many river basins, but not for all. For scenarios assuming combined agricultural and sewage management dissolved inorganic N and P inputs to the Black Sea are reduced by up to two-thirds between 2000 and 2050 and dissolved organic N and P inputs by one-third. River export of DIN is mainly affected by agricultural management and that of DIP by sewage management. On the other hand, in scenarios assuming increased fertilizer use for, for instance bioenergy crops, nutrient inputs to the sea increase. An increase in DIP inputs by southern rivers seems difficult to avoid because of the increasing number of people connected to sewage systems.

The natural cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and water have been disturbed substantially by human activities. Urbanizing coastal drainage basins and large river deltas are located at the interface of freshwater and coastal components of the larger earth system and the process of urbanization is increasingly affecting these cycles. We take coastal water pollution as an example to illustrate this. To ensure sustainable development of urban-dominated water systems, future research challenges must include studies of the effects of the urbanization process on biogeochemical cycles that firstly, account for feedbacks and tipping points at the global scale; secondly, link to the Sustainability Development Goals; and finally, link to other forms of pollution. Urban coastal systems are of particular interest when exploring human–water–nutrient cycle interactions, and effective solutions for environmental and health problems associated with these interactions.

Professionals in the environmental domain require cognitive interdisciplinary skills to be able to develop sustainable solutions to environmental problems. We demonstrate that education in environmental systems analysis allows for the development of these skills. We identify three components of cognitive interdisciplinary skills: (1) the ability to understand environmental issues in a holistic way, taking into account the interplay of social and biophysical dynamics; (2) the ability to connect both the analysis of environmental problems and the devising of solutions with relevant disciplinary knowledge and methodologies; and (3) the ability to reflect on the role of scientific research in solving societal problems. Environmental systems analysis provides tools, methods, and models to assist in framing complex environmental issues in a holistic way and facilitates the integration of disciplines. Systems analysis also supports reflection by making students aware that a system always represents a simplified model and a particular perspective. Through the analysis of a collection of bachelor of science students’ “reflection papers”, we identify two major challenges in teaching these cognitive skills: (1) to train students to not just follow a systematic approach but acquire a systemic view and (2) to train students to be reflexive about systems analysis and the role of science. We recommend that training in cognitive skills starts early in a study program.

Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient Model quantifies river export of nutrients by source at the sub-basin scale as a function of human activities on land. MARINA is a downscaled version for China of the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model with an improved approach for nutrient losses from animal production and population. We use the model to quantify dissolved inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export by six large rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf (Yellow, Hai, Liao), Yellow Sea (Yangtze, Huai) and South China Sea (Pearl) in 1970, 2000 and 2050. We addressed uncertainties in the MARINA Nutrient model. Between 1970 and 2000 river export of dissolved N and P increased by a factor of 2–8 depending on sea and nutrient form. Thus, the risk for coastal eutrophication increased. Direct losses of manure to rivers contribute to 60–78% of nutrient inputs to the Bohai Gulf and 20–74% of nutrient inputs to the other seas in 2000. Sewage is an important source of dissolved inorganic P, and synthetic fertilizers of dissolved inorganic N. Over half of the nutrients exported by the Yangtze and Pearl rivers originated from human activities in downstream and middlestream sub-basins. The Yellow River exported up to 70% of dissolved inorganic N and P from downstream sub-basins and of dissolved organic N and P from middlestream sub-basins. Rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf are drier, and thus transport fewer nutrients. For the future we calculate further increases in river export of nutrients. The MARINA Nutrient model quantifies the main sources of coastal water pollution for sub-basins. This information can contribute to formulation of effective management options to reduce nutrient pollution of Chinese seas in the future.

Future climate change may critically affect natural resources that are essential for basic human needs. Water resources are undoubtedly among the most important resources in this respect. Moreover, water plays an important role in the climate system. These examples illustrate why it is important to pay considerable attention to natural resources in climate change education. The expertise associated with natural resource sectors is inherently multidisciplinary, focusing on real-world problems. Water expertise for example incorporates social, economic, environmental, health, political, institutional, technological and other aspects. In this article, the authors explore the potential contribution of expertise on water issues to climate change education at the Masters level, and the competences with which it is associated. This exploration is framed within a larger European Union Erasmus project 'The lived experience of climate change: interdisciplinary e-module development and virtual mobility'.

We analyzed past and future trends in river export of dissolved nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal waters of China, for a selection of rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds). Over the period 1970–2000, river export of dissolved nutrients increased considerably, especially of dissolved inorganic N and P. Anthropogenic sources of N and P in rivers have become increasingly important, in particular N and P losses from agriculture. We tested the sensitivity of calculated nutrient export by rivers to changes in selected controlling factors. The calculated export of dissolved N and P is sensitive to changes in hydrology, synthetic fertilizer use and manure excretion in river basins. Changes in sewage inputs have large effects on dissolved inorganic P export. We analyzed future trends up to 2050 for several scenarios to illustrate the combined effects of selected management options. In the Base Scenario, the N and P export by the selected rivers increases considerably between 2000 and 2030. The increase continues from 2030 to 2050 except for DIP. Strategies to reduce N and P export by rivers include changes in agriculture, sewage and energy use. Changes in agriculture have the largest impact on future dissolved N and P river export to the coastal waters of China. The effectiveness of reduction strategies differs between nutrient forms and basins.

We present an update of the global budget of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) that accounts for recent revisions in estimates of global emissions. Most importantly, new estimates of N2O emissions from agriculture and from oceans and a surface sink of N2O have been included. Our estimates confirm that current food production is the largest anthropogenic source of N2O. However, its relative share in total anthropogenic emissions (about 60%) is smaller than in earlier studies (almost 80%). We estimate past trends in global emissions of N2O and use these as input to a simple atmospheric box model to calculate trends in atmospheric N2O concentrations for the period 1500-2006. We show that our revised estimates for global emissions of N2O are consistent with observed trends in atmospheric concentrations.

The uptake of nitrous oxide (N2O) occurs at the surface of the earth both in terrestrial and aquatic systems. This uptake is usually neglected in N2O budget studies. In this article, we discuss the likeliness of N2O uptake in different systems. These systems include soils as well as groundwater systems, riparian zones and surface waters. We address the possible consequences of ignoring surface sinks for N2O in global budgets as well as in national emission inventories. Our estimated surface sink is relatively small compared to the estimates of the present-day global emissions. Neglecting a possible surface sink of N2O may, therefore, not have major consequences for atmospheric budget studies on the global scale. However, locally, N2O uptake may be considerable. For countries with large areas prone to N2O uptake, neglecting this sink in national budgets may have important consequences.

This article describes two different visualisation instruments that can be used for awareness raising and educational purposes: Nitrogenius and the N-visualisation tool. Both instruments aim to convey the complex interactions that occur in the nitrogen (N) cycle and the need for integrated measures when aiming to reduce N-related environmental problems such as eutrophication, acidification or global warming. Nitrogenius was developed in the year 2000. This four-player computer “game” focuses on the Dutch N problems caused by N2O, NH3 and NOx emissions as well as nitrate in surface and ground water. Underlying the glossy user interface is a set of comprehensive models and a database with potential measures that were considered to be feasible at the time. Since 2000, the model has been used for educational purposes annually at Wageningen University. About 150 MSc students played the game, with the aim to solve the N-related problems in the Netherlands. This article analyses these games, and presents the surprising correlation for the period 2000-2007 with the actual environmental trends in the Netherlands. The second tool is an N- visualisation tool that was developed in 2007. This tool provides both a historic overview of the nitrogen issue and demonstrates the effect of seven potential measures on the world wide N cycle. The effects of increased biomass use and intensification of agriculture are examples of included measures. The net effect on global warming, food availability and biodiversity are output parameters of this instrument. The calculations and assumptions underlying this tool are easily accessible through an open source spreadsheet. This tool was used in 2008 and 2009 at Wageningen University for educational purposes. The pros and cons of both games for awareness raising and educational purposes will be discussed

Rubber production has been taking place in Thailand for many decades. Thailand is currently the world's largest natural rubber producer. We present emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the production of fresh latex, and three primary rubber products, including concentrated latex, block rubber (STR 20), and ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) in Thailand. Besides industrial activities in the rubber mills, the agricultural activities in rubber tree plantation are taken into account. The overall emissions from the production of concentrated latex, STR 20, and RSS amount to 0.54, 0.70, and 0.64 ton CO2-eq/ton product, respectively. This is for the case that rubber plantations have been located on cultivated lands for more than 60 years, which is current practice in most of Thailand. Emissions are largely associated with energy use and the use of synthetic fertilizers. We also quantify emissions for the case that tropical forests have been converted to rubber plantations relatively recently, which is a recent trend in Thailand. In this case the emissions are much higher because of carbon loss from land conversion: 13, 13, and 21 ton CO2-eq/ton product for concentrated latex, STR 20, and RSS, respectively. We discuss the implications of our results for strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from rubber production.

This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of these options. The analysis indicates that without currently applied reduction options the environmental impact would be twice as high as it currently is. For a Business-as-Usual scenario, in which no additional pollution reduction options are assumed to be implemented, the overall environmental impact is calculated to increase between 2000 and 2020 by a factor of two. Next, five Environmental Policy scenarios reflecting different strategies were defined to reduce the environmental impact. The results indicate that it is theoretically possible to reduce the overall environmental impact by almost 50% relative to the BAU 2020 levels. This scenario, however, may not be feasible because of the high costs involved. Four other Environmental Policy scenarios result in a reduction of the impact by 24–37% relative to the BAU scenario. Based on these results, it can be concluded that there are different ways to reduce the overall environmental impact by about one-third relative to BAU trends. Relatively large differences in the costs of the options included in the scenarios were also observed. We conclude that combining the most cost-effective options may be the most interesting strategy for reducing the overall environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand.

This study describes a model (MIKADO) to analyse options to reduce the environmental impact of aluminium die casting. This model will take a company perspective, so that it can be used as a decision-support tool for the environmental management of a plant. MIKADO can be used to perform scenario analyses to analyse the impact on the environment of different strategies, while taking into account both economical and ecological consequences of decision-making. The MIKADO approach is based on relevant parts of Life Cycle Assessment, environmental systems management and Multi-criteria Analysis. One of the strengths of MIKADO is the integrated approach that it takes in analysing, simultaneously, a set of eight environmental problems, including: human toxicity, abiotic depletion, global warming, solid waste production, acidification, terrestrial ecotoxicity, photochemical ozone formation and aquatic toxicity, caused by the aluminium die casting plant. The model is developed for and applied to a specific aluminium die casting plant supplying car manufacturers with aluminium die casting products. We present model results for a reference case, indicating that most of the environmental impact of the plant is associated with releases of compounds during the melting and casting of alloy, as well as with the use of natural gas. Finally, we present results of a partial sensitivity analysis, indicating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameter values.

Chinese agriculture has been industrializing since the 1990s to produce enough food. This increased nitrogen(N) in Chinese rivers and coastal waters, resulting in eutrophication-related problems. We analysed threeoptions to reduce future N pollution of coastal waters in China by 2050. We did it using the MARINANutrient model (a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). Two optimistic scenarios (OPT-1 andOPT-2) were developed, taking the Global Orchestration scenario (GO) of the Millennium EcosystemAssessment as a baseline. These scenarios assume efficient N management in agriculture (OPT-1 and OPT2)and sewage (OPT-2). We also assessed effects of the “Zero growth in fertilizer use after 2020” policy (theCP scenario). Results show that N management in agriculture is more effective to reduce future N pollutionof coastal waters than N management of sewage. In GO, Chinese rivers are projected to export 38-56% moreN in 2050 than in 2000 because of poor manure management. The current policy in agriculture (CP) may notbe successful to reduce coastal water pollution. In contrast, our more optimistic scenarios project much lowerriver export of N in 2050 (at around levels of 1970 for northern rivers and 2000 levels for central andsouthern rivers). This is mainly because OPT-1 assumes high rates of manure recycling, leading to decreaseduse of synthetic fertilizers. Improved sewage management in OPT-2 can further reduce N export by northernrivers. Our results can serve as a basis for decision makers on N management.

‘Double High Agricultural’ (DHA) is a nutrient management strategy focusing on increasing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) use efficiencies, while also increasing crop yields. DHA may thus reduce losses of nutrients to the environment. We quantified the impact of DHA on N inputs to rivers and coastal seas in the year 2050. To this end, we applied the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model. Two scenarios were developed based on two different agricultural practice of DHA: 1) The Integrated Soil-crop Systems Management (ISSM) scenario which assumes a 30% lower synthetic fertilizer application and 30% higher crop yields; 2) The ISSM-MR scenario, which is as ISSM, but assumes increased Manure Recycling in crop production, leading to lower synthetic fertilizer use. The results indicate that river export of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) and dissolved organic N (DON) in the ISSM scenario are about 10% lower than in the reference scenario. In ISSM-MR river export of DIN is about 30% lower than in the reference scenario.

In many world regions the availability of clean water is at risk. Pollution of rivers and coastal seas poses a threat to aquatic ecosystems and society. Here, we review representative examples of mathematical models that simulate pollutant flows from land to sea at global and continental scales. We argue that a multi-pollutant modelling approach would help to better understand and manage water quality issues. Pollutants often have common sources and multiple impacts. Most existing spatially explicit models, however, focus on one type of pollution only. A new generation of models is needed to explicitly address the combined exposure of surface waters to multiple pollutants. Such models could serve as a basis for integrated water quantity and water quality assessments.

Palm oil is a promising source of cooking oil and biodiesel. The demand for palm oil has been increasing worldwide. However, concerns exist surrounding the environmental and socio-economic sustainability of palm oil production. Indonesia is a major palm oil producing country. We explored scenarios for palm oil production in Indonesia until 2050, focusing on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua. Our scenarios describe possible trends in crude palm oil production in Indonesia, while considering the demand for cooking oil and biodiesel, the available land for plantations, production capacity (for crude palm oil and fresh fruit bunches) and environmentally restricting conditions. We first assessed past developments in palm oil production. Next, we analysed scenarios for the future. In the past 20 years, 95% of the Indonesian oil palm production area was in Sumatra and Kalimantan and was increasingly cultivated in peatlands. Our scenarios for the future indicate that Indonesia can meet a considerable part of the global and Asian demand for palm oil, while avoiding further cultivation of peatlands and forest. By 2050, 264-447 Mt crude palm oil may be needed for cooking oil and biodiesel worldwide. In Indonesia, the area that is potentially suitable for oil palm is 17 to 26 Mha with a potential production rate of 27-38 t fresh fruit bunches/ha, yielding 130-176 Mt crude palm oil. Thus Indonesia can meet 39-60% of the international demand. In our scenarios this would be produced in Sumatra (21-26%), Kalimantan (12-16%), and Papua (2%). The potential areas include the current oil palm plantation in mineral lands, but exclude the current oil palm plantations in peatlands.

Nitrogen (N) use efficiency is low in Chinese agriculture. This results in large N losses to air and water. We aim to explore effective nutrient management options to increase N use efficiencies in the food chain, and thus to reduce N losses to the environment for 2020 and 2050 in China by scenario analysis. Three scenarios were developed and implemented assuming Business As Usual (BAU) trends, Zero Fertilizer (ZF) growth from 2020, and Improved Nutrient Management (INM). N use efficiencies in agriculture, and N losses werequantified using the NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model. Results show that N use efficiency in 2013 is low at about 20%. Thus the losses to air (14 Tg of N) and water (12 Tg of N) are high in 2013. The N use efficiencies will likely remain at their low 2013 levels in 2020 and2050 under BAU, resulting in large increase in N losses to air and water between 2013 and 2050. INM is projected to increase N use efficiency to 33% in 2050. N losses to water in 2050 are almost half of that in 2013, and to air are 20% lower. Scenario ZF incorporates recent Chinese policies aiming at a zero growth insynthetic fertilizer use from the year 2020 onwards. ZF is projected to be much less effective than INM. We conclude that nutrient management that simultaneously reduces fertilization, improves manure management,and reduces nutrient excretion in animal manure, is needed for Chinese agriculture.

Rivers export nutrients to coastal waters. Excess nutrient export may result in harmful algal blooms and hypoxia, affecting biodiversity, fisheries, and recreation. The purpose of this study is to quantify for European rivers (1) the extent to which N and P loads exceed levels that minimize the risk of harmful algal blooms and (2) the relative shares of sources of N and P in rivers. This may help to identify effective management strategies to reduce coastal eutrophication. We focus on 48 rivers in 27 countries of the European Union (EU27). We used the Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) model to analyze nutrient export by rivers and the associated potentials for coastal eutrophication as reflected by Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential (ICEP). In 2000, 38 of the 48 EU rivers indicated in our study had an ICEP > 0, indicating a relatively high potential for harmful algal blooms. These 38 rivers cover 60% of EU27 land area. Between 2000 and 2050 nutrient export by European rivers is projected to decrease. However, by 2050 still 34 EU rivers, covering 48% of the land area, have an ICEP > 0. This indicates that in these scenarios little progress is made in terms of environmental improvement. About one-third of the rivers with ICEP > 0 are N limited, and about two-thirds P limited. In N-limited rivers reducing N loads is a more effective way to reduce the risk for coastal eutrophication than reducing P, and vice versa. For N-limited rivers agriculture or sewage are the dominant sources of nutrients in river water. In P-limited rivers, sewage is found to be the dominant source of P, except for rivers draining into the Atlantic Ocean, where agriculture can also be dominant. A basin-specific approach is needed to effectively reduce N and P loads.

Computer simulation models are increasingly used to support solving complex problems in natural resource management, with social learning as subsidiary goal of the solution process. In this research, a serious game on water management is used where participants receive feedback on consequences of their choices from an Integrated Assessment Meta Model. This study aims to determine if and how social learning takes place and explores the role of the model in social learning. Group discussions were qualitatively analysed to uncover and understand the mechanisms in this process. Results show that social learning took place in 10 of the 12 game sessions. Though model feedback was an important driver for social learning, social learning was driven most by the team's reflection on their perspective. We conclude that using a model can facilitate social learning in a serious-game setting, in particular in combination with reflection on teams' perspectives. We explored the role of a computer model in social learning on water management.Group discussions were qualitatively analysed to understand the role of the model.Model feedback was an important driver of social learning.Social learning was driven most by reflection by people on their perspectives.

Many methods have been reported and used to include recycling in life cycle assessments (LCAs). This paper evaluates six widely used methods: three substitution methods (i.e. substitution based on equal quality, a correction factor, and alternative material), allocation based on the number of recycling loops, the recycled-content method, and the equal-share method. These six methods were first compared, with an assumed hypothetical 100% recycling rate, for an aluminium can and a disposable polystyrene (PS) cup. The substitution and recycled-content method were next applied with actual rates for recycling, incineration and landfilling for both product systems in selected countries. The six methods differ in their approaches to credit recycling. The three substitution methods stimulate the recyclability of the product and assign credits for the obtained recycled material. The choice to either apply a correction factor, or to account for alternative substituted material has a considerable influence on the LCA results, and is debatable. Nevertheless, we prefer incorporating quality reduction of the recycled material by either a correction factor or an alternative substituted material over simply ignoring quality loss. The allocation-on-number-of-recycling-loops method focusses on the life expectancy of material itself, rather than on a specific separate product. The recycled-content method stimulates the use of recycled material, i.e. credits the use of recycled material in products and ignores the recyclability of the products. The equal-share method is a compromise between the substitution methods and the recycled-content method. The results for the aluminium can follow the underlying philosophies of the methods. The results for the PS cup are additionally influenced by the correction factor or credits for the alternative material accounting for the drop in PS quality, the waste treatment management (recycling rate, incineration rate, landfilling rate), and the source of avoided electricity in case of waste incineration. The results for the PS cup, which are less dominated by production of virgin material than aluminium can, furthermore depend on the environmental impact categories. This stresses the importance to consider other impact categories besides the most commonly used global warming impact. The multitude of available methods complicates the choice of an appropriate method for the LCA practitioner. New guidelines keep appearing and industries also suggest their own preferred method. Unambiguous ISO guidelines, particularly related to sensitivity analysis, would be a great step forward in making more robust LCAs.

The last decades have shown a strong increase in oil palm production in Thailand. This is increasingly leading to land conversion including loss of forest habitat. However the specific direct and indirect land use effects of oil palm expansion in Thailand are as yet insufficiently understood. We selected the Tapi river Basin and model land use change caused by oil palm expansion. We analysed both direct and indirect land use change effects, using spatial analysis in ArcGIS 10.0 in combination with farmer interviews. Our analysis shows that in the first decade after 2000, direct-land-use-change (dLUC) amounted to 102,000 ha, and exceeded the number of hectares that were converted due to indirect-land-use-change (iLUC). Rubber was most frequently replaced by oil palm, but there was also conversion of natural ecosystems. More recently, in particular between 2009 and 2012, iLUC strongly increased. Forests were cleared for rubber production as an indirect effect of oil palm expansion. We also quantified the land use change effects on selected ecosystem services; including crop provisioning service, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation. The crop production (in ton), habitats loss (in ha) and carbon stocks (in ton C) are used as indicators for modelling these services. The stock different method from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines is employed to quantify carbon stocks. The result shows that oil palm expansion increased fresh-fruit-bunch production, however, it reduced other crop production, such as latex, rice and fruits. Carbon storage and biodiversity conservation services were adversely affected due to the conversion of natural forests to oil palm and rubber plantations. Our concern is that the clearance of natural forest significantly increased in the second period compared to the first period. This reflects that arable land available for oil palm in the basin has become very limited. We, therefore, recommend the government to aim for increased production in existing plantations rather than promoting further land use conversion.

Rivers transport large amounts of nitrogen to coastal waters. This has a possible negative influence on coastal ecosystems. To control these problems, environmental policy plans increasingly focus on reducing the nitrogen load in rivers. However, to what extent nitrogen inputs need to be reduced is not easily indicated. Critical loads, reflecting the amount of nitrogen that can enter the coastal waters without negative impacts, may be used as a basis for environmental targets. The purpose of this study is to analyse the extent to which critical loads are exceeded in the Ebrié Lagoon (Ivory Coast). For this, we applied a mass balance approach. The results indicate that the nitrogen loads exceed the critical loads in almost every part of the lagoon. To reduce the nitrogen loading of the lagoon to the critical level, reductions in total nitrogen inputs of at least 21% may be needed compared to current levels. However, within the lagoon we identified regions where larger reductions (up to 80%) are needed to avoid critical concentrations being exceeded. The use of a mass balance approach could also be useful in other data-poor regions.

We present a new analytical tool, called COMPLIMENT, which can be used to provide detailed information on the overall environmental impact of a business. COMPLIMENT integrates parts of tools such as life cycle assessment, multi-criteria analysis and environmental performance indicators. It avoids disadvantages and combines complementary aspects of these three tools. The methodology is based on environmental performance indicators, expanding the scope of data collection towards a life cycle approach and including a weighting and aggregation step. A case study on the Thai pulp industry illustrates the usefulness of COMPLIMENT.

Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10–9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our 'business as usual' ('sanitation improvements') scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

This study focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants using willow as fuel compared to those using fossil fuels. More specifically, we quantify emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from soils on which willow is grown, and compare these to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel-based power plants. The results indicate that use of willow for producing electricity instead of fossil fuels is often, but not always more environmentally friendly. This is because the soil emissions of N 2 O may be lower or higher than the avoided emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from coal or natural gas-fired plants, depending on the way the willow is grown. Emissions may be higher in case willow is grown under specific field conditions reflecting high fertiliser use on organic soils, relatively long rotations and low yields. We performed a scenario analysis that compares soil emissions of N 2 O to fossil fuel (combustion) related CO 2 emissions for power generation in Portugal and The Netherlands. Scenarios for the year 2010 indicate that greenhouse gas emissions from power plants may increase by up to 15–20% relative to baseline trends, in case willow use is increased to 20% of the total fuel use in power generation. In case willow is grown under relatively favourable conditions, these greenhouse gas emissions may be at least 20% lower than the baseline.