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Purpose: We seek answers to three questions about adolescent risk of starting to drink alcoholic beverages: (1) in new United States (US) data, can we reproduce a recently discovered female excess risk? (2) has a female excess risk emerged in European countries? and (3) might the size of country-level female-male differences (FMD) be influenced by macro-level gender equality and development processes?Methods: Estimates are from US and European surveys of adolescents, 2010-2014. For US estimates, newly incident drinking refers to consuming the first full drink during the 12-month interval just prior to assessment. For all countries, lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking refers to any drinking before assessment of the sampled 15-16 years.Results: Cumulative meta-analysis summary estimates from the US show a highly reproducible female excess in newly incident drinking among 12-17 years (final estimated female-male difference in risk, FMD = 2.1%; 95% confidence interval = 1.5%, 2.7%). Several European countries show female excess risk, estimated as lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking onsets before age 17 years. At the country level, the observed magnitude of FMD in risk is positively associated with the Gender Development Index (especially facets related to education and life expectancy of females relative to males), and with residence in a higher income European country.Conclusions: New FMD estimates support reproducibility of a female excess risk in the US. In Europe, evidence of a female excess is modest. Educational attainment, life expectancies, and income merit attention in future FMD research on suspected macro-level processes that influence drinking onsets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A mosaic of evidence links risk perceptions with drug use in adolescence, including population summaries to guide public health campaigns, as well as subject-specific estimates on preventing an adolescent's drug use by manipulating that individual's prior risk perceptions. We re-visit these issues with a public health perspective, asking whether population-level cannabis risk perceptions of school-attending adolescents at one grade level might predict cannabis use prevalence two and four grade levels later.Methods: From 1991 to 2014, each year's United States "Monitoring the Future" (MTF) study population included 8th-, 10th-, & 12th-graders. Two and four years later, statistically independent school samples of the same cohorts were drawn and assessed (n ~ 16,000/year). Population-level modeling estimated cannabis use prevalence at time "t" (12th-grade) regressed on that same cohort's cannabis risk perceptions as had been measured at time "t-4" (8th-grade) and time "t-2" (10th-grade).Results: Higher cannabis risk perception levels for 10th-graders predict lower cannabis use prevalence when 10th-graders have become 12th-graders (β̂=-0.12), and higher cannabis risk perception levels of 8th-graders predict lower cannabis prevalence when 8th-graders have become 10th-graders (β̂=-0.27); p-values < 0.05. Across four-year spans, the prediction is null (p-value = 0.619).Conclusions: This within-cohort across-grade population-level prediction prompts questions for drug prevention specialists, including "Would a relatively small upward shift in a local area population's appraisal of risk perceptions be followed, two years later, by reduced population prevalence of cannabis use?" Future randomized trial designs, health education, or prevention efforts focused on altering early adolescent cannabis risk perceptions might provide the most convincing and definitive evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Cardiovascular disease accounts for 42% of male and 51% of female mortality within Europe. Kyrgyzstan, population of almost 6 million, has amongst the highest rates within Europe, second only to Uzbekistan for female cardiovascular disease mortality (588 per 100,000). We attempted to identify established cardiovascular disease prevalence within a rural community in Kyrgyzstan using portable echocardiography. Design: Free open access echocardiography (VIVID-I, GE, USA) was offered to all adults in Batken district. Routine echocardiographic views were obtained and analysis performed using EchoPac Clinical Workstation (GE, USA). Mild valvular regurgitation, mild LV hypertrophy, patent foramen ovales and mild atrial enlargement were considered mild abnormalities; compensated ischaemic or valvular heart disease - moderate abnormalities, and decompensated congenital, ischaemic or valvular disease - severe abnormalities. Results: One hundred and twenty five adults (48 male, 77 female), mean age 53±16 years, underwent echocardiography. Only 16% of participants had no significant abnormality, 46% had mild disease, 25% moderate, compensated disease and 13% had severe disease. Nine percent had congenital heart disease including one tetralogy of Fallot and one Ebstein's anomaly. Average LV function was normal, however, 19 participants had EF<50%. Forty percent of participants had a new diagnosis warranting formal follow-up, 12% a new diagnosis of heart failure. Conclusion: Using portable echocardiography, we identify a higher than reported prevalence of cardiovascular disease in rural Kyrgyzstan. Absence of portable tools and specialists for early diagnosis might lead to presentation in an advanced stage of disease when little can be done to improve mortality. Embracing remote access diagnostics is essential for disease identification within rural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A prevailing epidemiological theory about drug use occurrence among secondary school students is that trends in perceived risk of drug-related harms can drive use. If so, cannabis risk perceptions during one school year should predict newly incident cannabis use in the same school the following year. We aimed to study trends in incidence and epidemiological clustering of cannabis use among United States (US) 12th-graders, and a novel prediction that incidence in school-year 't' is influenced by school-specific cannabis risk perceptions (CRP) of 12th-graders a year prior at 't-1'.Methods: US schools sampled each year from 1976 to 2013 (∼130 schools per year) yielded an annual nationally representative sample of ∼15-16,000 12th-graders with questionnaire assessments. Analyses involved Alternating Logistic Regressions (ALR) to study trends in school-level clustering and slopes that estimate the degree to which CRP levels at 't-1' might predict newly incident cannabis use at 't'.Results: School-level CRP levels at 't-1' predict newly incident cannabis use in the next year's 12th-grade class. For each unit CRP increment, the next year's class shows tangibly reduced incidence of starting to use cannabis (overall odds ratio, OR = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.33). Within-school clustering of newly incident cannabis smoking also can be seen (e.g., pairwise odds ratio, PWOR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.15).Conclusions: Programmatic manipulation of perceived risk in one year's senior class via public health/school alliances might dampen the subsequent risk of newly incident cannabis use in the next year's class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measured as elapsed time from first use to dependence syndrome onset, the estimated 'induction interval' for cocaine is thought to be short relative to the cannabis interval, but little is known about risk of becoming dependent during first months after onset of use. Virtually all published estimates for this facet of drug dependence epidemiology are from life histories elicited years after first use. To improve estimation, we turn to new month-wise data from nationally representative samples of newly incident drug users identified via probability sampling and confidential computer-assisted self-interviews for the United States National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2004-2013. Standardized modules assessed first and most recent use, and dependence syndromes, for each drug subtype. A four-parameter Hill function depicts the drug dependence transition for subgroups defined by units of elapsed time from first to most recent use, with an expectation of greater cocaine dependence transitions for cocaine versus cannabis. This study's novel estimates for cocaine users one month after first use show 2-4% with cocaine dependence; 12-17% are dependent when use has persisted. Corresponding cannabis estimates are 0-1% after one month, but 10-23% when use persists. Duration or persistence of cannabis smoking beyond an initial interval of a few months of use seems to be a signal of noteworthy risk for, or co-occurrence of, rapid-onset cannabis dependence, not too distant from cocaine estimates, when we sort newly incident users into subgroups defined by elapsed time from first to most recent use. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposures to antioxidants (AO) are associated with levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), but the pattern of evidence is mixed, due in part to studying each potential AO, one at a time, when multiple AO exposures might affect CRP levels. By studying multiple AO via a composite indicator approach, we estimate the degree to which serum CRP level is associated with serum AO level. Standardised field survey protocols for the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2006 yielded nationally representative cross-sectional samples of adults aged 20 years and older (n 8841). NHANES latex-enhanced nephelometry quantified serum CRP levels. Liquid chromatography quantified serum concentrations of vitamins A, E and C and carotenoids. Using structural equations, we regressed CRP level on AO levels, and derived a summary estimate for a composite of these potential antioxidants (CPA), with covariates held constant. The association linking CPA with CRP was inverse, stronger for slightly elevated CRP (1·8≤CRP<10 mg/l; slope= −1·08; 95 % CI −1·39, −0·77) and weaker for highly elevated CRP (≥10 mg/l; slope= −0·52; 95 % CI −0·68, −0·35), with little change when covariates were added. Vitamins A and C, as well as lutein+zeaxanthin, were prominent contributors to the composite. In these cross-sectional data studied via a composite indicator approach, the CPA level and the CRP level were inversely related. The stage is set for more confirmatory longitudinal or intervention research on multiple vitamins. The composite indicator approach might be most useful in epidemiology when several exposure constructs are too weakly inter-correlated to be studied via formal measurement models for underlying latent dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

As epidemiologists studying foodborne illness outbreaks, we do not ask luncheon attendees to say which food caused their illnesses. Instead, we use measurement and analysis methods to estimate food-specific risk variations. Here, we adapt the foodborne outbreak approach to develop new estimates of drug use disorder risk for single-drug and polydrug users, without attributing the syndrome to a specific drug when multiple drugs have been used. We estimate drug use disorder risk for cannabis-only users as a reference value. We then derive comparative relative risk estimates for users of other drug subtypes, including polydrug combinations. Data are from the 2002 to 2003 U.S. National Comorbidity Survey Replication, a nationally representative sample of household residents (18+ years), with standardized drug use and drug dependence assessments. Multiple logistic regression provides odds ratio estimates of relative risk. With this approach, for every 1000 cannabis-only users, an estimated 17 had become cases (1.7%). By comparison, polydrug users and cocaine-only users had much greater cumulative incidence (>10%), even with adjustment for covariates and local area matching ( P < 0.001). Using this approach, we find exceptionally low risk for cannabis-only users and greater risk for polydrug and cocaine-only users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research conducted in high-income countries has investigated influences of socioeconomic inequalities on drinking outcomes such as alcohol use disorders (AUD), however, associations between area-level neighborhood social deprivation (NSD) and individual socioeconomic status with these outcomes have not been explored in Brazil. Thus, we investigated the role of these factors on drink-related outcomes in a Brazilian population, attending to male-female variations. Methods: A multi-stage area probability sample of adult household residents in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area was assessed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) (n = 5,037). Estimation focused on prevalence and correlates of past-year alcohol disturbances [heavy drinking of lower frequency (HDLF), heavy drinking of higher frequency (HDHF), abuse, dependence, and DMS-5 AUD] among regular users (RU); odds ratio (OR) were obtained. Results: Higher NSD, measured as an area-level variable with individual level variables held constant, showed an excess odds for most alcohol disturbances analyzed. Prevalence estimates for HDLF and HDHF among RU were 9% and 20%, respectively, with excess odds in higher NSD areas; schooling (inverse association) and low income were associated with male HDLF. The only individual-level association with female HDLF involved employment status. Prevalence estimates for abuse, dependence, and DSM-5 AUD among RU were 8%, 4%, and 8%, respectively, with excess odds of: dependence in higher NSD areas for males; abuse and AUD for females. Among RU, AUD was associated with unemployment, and low education with dependence and AUD. Conclusions: Regular alcohol users with alcohol-related disturbances are more likely to be found where area-level neighborhood characteristics reflect social disadvantage. Although we cannot draw inferences about causal influence, the associations are strong enough to warrant future longitudinal alcohol studies to explore causal mechanisms related to the heterogeneous patterns of association and male-female variations observed herein. Hopefully, these findings may help guide future directions for public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: Many pre-clinical and clinical researchers do not appreciate the recent decline in United States (US) population-level incidence of crack-cocaine smoking. At present, no more than about 200 young people start using crack-cocaine each day. Ten years ago, the corresponding estimated daily rate was 1000. This short communication looks into these trends, surrounding evidence on this important public health topic, and checks whether duration-reducing treatment interventions might be responsible, versus selected alternatives. Methods: Via analyses of standardized computer-assisted self-interview data from the US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH, 2002–2011; n >500,000), we evaluated change in incidence estimates, perceived difficulty to acquire crack, risk of using cocaine, treatment entries, and persistence once crack use has started. Results: We draw attention to a marked overall decline in year-specific incidence rates for crack-cocaine smoking from 2002 to 2011, especially 2007–2011. There is some variation in estimates of difficulty to acquire crack (p <0.001) and observed risk of using cocaine among ‘at risk’ susceptibles (p <0.001), but no appreciable shifts in duration of crack smoking among active users (p >0.05) or in proportion of crack users receiving treatment (p >0.05). Conclusions: Changing epidemiology of crack-cocaine smoking may rest largely on reductions in newly incident use with no major direct effects due to US cocaine treatment, incarceration, or interdiction. Concurrently, we see quite modest declines in survey-based estimates of cocaine-attributed perceived risk and cocaine availability. As such, we posit that no specific US agency should claim it is ‘riding to glory’ on the descending limb of this epidemic curve. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Psychiatric researchers tend to select the discordant co-twin design when they seek to hold constant genetic influence while estimating exposure-associated disease risk. The epidemiologic case-crossover research design developed for the past two decades represents a viable alternative, not often seen in psychiatric studies. Here, we turn to the epidemiologic case-crossover approach to examine the idea that cannabis onset is a proximal trigger for cocaine use, with the power of 'subject-as-own-control' research used to hold constant antecedent characteristics of the individual drug user, including genetic influence and other traits experienced up to the time of the observed hazard and control intervals. Data are from newly incident cocaine users identified in the 2002-2006 US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. Among these cocaine users, 48 had both cannabis onset and cocaine onset in the same month-long hazard interval; the expected value is 30 users, based on the control interval we had pre-specified for case-crossover estimation (estimated relative risk, RR = 1.6; exact mid- p = 0.042). Within the framework of a subject-as-own-control design, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that cannabis onset is a proximal trigger for cocaine use, with genetic influences (and many environmental conditions and processes) held constant. Limitations are noted and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: Evidence in support of a suspected causal association linking childhood physical punishment (CPP) and later alcoholic beverage-related disturbances has been found in metropolitan China. Here, the focus shifts to the CPP association with the estimated risk of starting to drink, having the first drinking problem, and transitioning from first drink to the first drinking problem. Methods: Data are from the World Mental Health Surveys-metropolitan China study, with representative samples of adult household residents living in two metropolitan cities, Beijing and Shanghai. Recalled information was available for early life experiences (including CPP, other childhood adversities, and parental alcohol and drug problems), as well as the onset age of drinking and drinking problems. Survival analyses were used to estimate the Hazard Ratio. A structural equation modeling approach was used to control for other inter-correlated childhood adversities. Results: Cox proportional hazards modeling discloses statistically robust associations linking CPP with drinking and drinking problems, as well as more rapid transitions from first drink to first drinking problem, even after accounting for other childhood adversities and parental drinking problems. These associations cannot be attributed to a more general noxious family environment. Conclusions: These results lay a foundation for future experimental studies on the possible causal relationship linking CPP with the onset of drinking problems and the transition from drinking to drinking problems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

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Aims: To evaluate sociodemographic correlates associated with transitions from alcohol use to disorders and remission in a Brazilian population. Methods: Data are from a probabilistic, multi-stage clustered sample of adult household residents in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area. Alcohol use, regular use (at least 12 drinks/year), DSM-IV abuse and dependence and remission from alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were assessed with the World Mental Health version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Age of onset (AOO) distributions of the cumulative lifetime probability of each alcohol use stage were prepared with data obtained from 5037 subjects. Correlates of transitions were obtained from a subsample of 2942 respondents, whose time-dependent sociodemographic data were available. Results: Lifetime prevalences were 85.8% for alcohol use, 56.2% for regular use, 10.6% for abuse and 3.6% for dependence; 73.4 and 58.8% of respondents with lifetime abuse and dependence, respectively, had remitted. The number of sociodemographic correlates decreased from alcohol use to disorders. All transitions across alcohol use stages up to abuse were consistently associated with male gender, younger cohorts and lower education. Importantly, low education was a correlate for developing AUD and not remitting from dependence. Early AOO of first alcohol use was associated with the transition of regular use to abuse. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that specific correlates differently contribute throughout alcohol use trajectory in a Brazilian population. It also reinforces the need of preventive programs focused on early initiation of alcohol use and high-risk individuals, in order to minimize the progression to dependence and improve remission from AUD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the current study is to estimate the association between childhood physical punishment (CPP) and level of alcohol use disorder (AUD), using two different approaches to take other childhood adversities into account. Population survey using face-to-face interviews to a representative sample of non-institutionalized adult residents of Beijing and Shanghai, China. A total of 5201 participants aged 18-70 years. A version of the World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used. Standardized assessments covered early life experiences of childhood physical punishment, other childhood adversities, parental drinking problems, childhood conduct problems and clinical features of AUD. A robust association linking CPP and level of AUD was found, holding other childhood adversities constant (probit coefficient = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.40, 1.00) via covariate terms in structural equations modeling. Furthermore, there was evidence that CPP might exert an additional influence on level of AUD over and above a generally noxious family environment (probit coefficient = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.02, 0.38). There appears to be a robust association between reports of harsh punishment in childhood and alcohol dependence in adulthood adjusting for a range of possible confounding factors. Whether the association is causal or whether both are related to a common underlying factor or recall bias needs to be investigated further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Large-sample epidemiological studies of tobacco cigarette smoking routinely assess so-called "lifetime prevalence" of tobacco dependence. This work delves into the earliest stages of smoking involvement, focusing on newly incident tobacco cigarette smokers in the very recent past, and examines hypothesized subgroup variation in count processes that become engaged once smoking starts. Here, the term "count process" has two components: (a) whether smoking will be persistent and (b) the rate of smoking, conditional upon membership in a latent class of smokers who will persist, as estimated under the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model for complex survey data. Methods: We estimate these ZIP parameters for nationally representative samples of newly incident smokers in the United States (all with smoking initiation within 24 months of assessment). Data are from the 2004-2007 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. Results: Once cigarette smoking started, roughly 40%-45% persisted, and the estimated median rate was five smoking days/30 days, conditional on membership in the latent class of persistent smokers. Among non-Hispanic recent-onset cigarette smokers, Whites, Black/African Americans, Asians, and Native American/Alaskan Natives did not differ, but recent-onset smokers of Hispanic origin and those of Pacific Islander background had comparatively less cigarette involvement. Discussion: Tobacco prevention and control initiatives may require elaboration in the form of brief interventions, includinginterpersonal and social transactions that might constrain a mounting frequency of days of smoking before daily smoking starts, and until conventional smoking cessation medication aids become indicated. These very-early stage interventions (VESI) might be mounted within family or peer groups or in the primary care or school settings, but randomized trials to evaluate VESI interventions will be required. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Stage-transition models based on the American Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) generally are applied in epidemiology and genetics research on drug dependence syndromes associated with cannabis, cocaine, and other internationally regulated drugs (IRDs). Difficulties with DSM stage-transition models have surfaced during cross-national research intended to provide a truly global perspective, such as the work of the World Mental Health Surveys Consortium. Alternative simpler dependence-related phenotypes are possible, including population-level count process models for steps early and before coalescence of clinical features into a coherent syndrome (e.g., zero-inflated Poisson [ZIP] regression). Selected findings are reviewed, based on ZIP modeling of alcohol, tobacco, and IRD count processes, with an illustration that may stimulate new research on genetic susceptibility traits. The annual National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) can be readily modified for this purpose, along the lines of a truly anonymous research approach that can help make NSDUH-type cross-national epidemiological surveys more useful in the context of subsequent genomewide association (GWAS) research and post-GWAS investigations with a truly global health perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New estimates for the risk of becoming stimulant dependent within 24 months after first extra-medical (EM) use of a stimulant drug compound are presented, with a focus on subgroup variations in this risk (e.g., alcohol dependence, male–female differences). The study estimates are derived from a representative sample of United States residents ages 12 and older (n =166,737) obtained from the 2003 to 2005 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. A total of 1700 respondents were found to have used stimulants extra-medically for the first time within 24 months prior to assessment. Approximately 5% of these recent-onset EM users had become stimulant dependent since onset of EM use. As hypothesized, alcohol dependence cases were found to have experienced an excess risk of becoming stimulant dependent soon after onset of stimulant drug use; there was no robust male–female difference in risk. Independently, initiates who had used multiple types of stimulants extra-medically, and methamphetamine users, were more likely to have become stimulant dependent soon after onset of use; by comparison, EM users of methylphenidate (Ritalin®) were less likely to have developed rapid-onset dependence. These epidemiologic findings help quantify a continuing public health burden associated with new onsets of extra-medical stimulant use in the 21st century. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this study was to investigate possible adverse effects of cannabis use on cognitive decline after 12 years in persons under age 65 years. This was a follow-up study of a probability sample of the adult household residents of East Baltimore. The analyses included 1,318 participants in the Baltimore, Maryland, portion of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study who completed the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) during three study waves in 1981, 1982, and 1993–1996. Individual MMSE score differences between waves 2 and 3 were calculated for each study participant. After 12 years, study participants' scores declined a mean of 1.20 points on the MMSE (standard deviation 1.90), with 66% having scores that declined by at least one point. Significant numbers of scores declined by three points or more (15% of participants in the 18–29 age group). There were no significant differences in cognitive decline between heavy users, light users, and nonusers of cannabis. There were also no male-female differences in cognitive decline in relation to cannabis use. The authors conclude that over long time periods, in persons under age 65 years, cognitive decline occurs in all age groups. This decline is closely associated with aging and educational level but does not appear to be associated with cannabis use. Am J Epidemiol 1999;149:794–800. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Objectives: Models of drug use etiology and prevention require precise information concerning the expression of population-based risk factors across the continuum of drug use. However, the majority of previous epidemiologic research on this topic has not addressed transitions between specific drug stages. The present investigation examined the sociodemographic predictors of progression across six stages of drug use in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a nationally representative household survey of the U.S. population conducted between February, 2001 and April, 2003. Methods: Lifetime history of opportunity to use illicit substances, initial drug use, and DSM-IV drug use disorders were collected using in-person structured diagnostic interviews. Results: The median age of first opportunity to use drugs as well as drug use, abuse and dependence each occurred prior to age 20, while the median remission from abuse and dependence occurred at 26 and 30 years, respectively. Most sociodemographic variables, in particular sex and ethnicity, demonstrated highly differential associations with transitions depending on the stage examined. Conclusions: The findings may partially explain the effectiveness of strategies designed to reduce drug use, abuse and dependence, and indicate that increased correspondence is needed between available epidemiologic data and existing models of etiology or prevention. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Estimating the timing and speed among smoking milestones is an important challenge for epidemiology given that further reductions in smoking prevalence may be best achieved by programs that target potentially malleable smoking behavior before the development of nicotine dependence. The purpose of the study was to investigate the association between the timing and speed of transition among major smoking milestones (onset, weekly, and daily smoking) and onset and recovery from nicotine dependence. Analyses are based on data from The National Comorbidity Survey—Replication, a nationally representative face-to-face household survey conducted between February 2001 and April 2003. Of those who had ever smoked ( n = 5,692), 71.3% had reached weekly smoking levels and 67.5% had reached daily smoking. Four in ten who had ever smoked met criteria for nicotine dependence. A shorter time since the onset of weekly and daily smoking was associated with a transition to both daily smoking and nicotine dependence, respectively. The risk for each smoking transition was highest within the year following the onset of the preceding milestone. Recovery was associated with a longer period of time between smoking initiation and the development of dependence and a later age of smoking onset. These findings shed light on the clinical course of smoking and nicotine dependence. Given the importance of timing of smoking transitions, prevalence may be further reduced through intervention targeted at adolescents and young adults in the months most proximal to smoking initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examine the relationship between 2 separate but interrelated findings in the epidemiology of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD): women's greater PTSD risk following traumatic events and the sensitizing effects of a prior trauma on the PTSD response to a subsequent trauma. Data come from a representative sample of 1,698 young adults from a large U.S. city. Analysis was conducted on the subset exposed to traumatic events. Women's risk for PTSD following assaultive violence was higher than men's. When assaultive violence preceded a later nonassaultive trauma in women, there was an increased risk (relative risk = 4.9) for PTSD, which was not observed in men. The relative risk estimate in women was significantly higher than in men. These findings suggest that assaultive violence elicits women's PTSD response directly and by sensitizing them to the effects of subsequent traumatic events of lesser magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: We extend prior reports about the risk of dependence on specific drugs by providing developmental-specific risk estimates for progression from first use to meeting criteria for DSM-III-R dependence upon cannabis, cocaine, or alcohol, as well as male–female differences. Methods: The data are from the National Comorbidity Survey, with a national probability sample of persons 15–44 years old in the United States, which included many respondents who used cannabis, cocaine and alcohol on at least one occasion (n =3558, 1337, and 6149, for cannabis, cocaine, and alcohol, respectively). Survival analysis procedures provided cumulative risk estimates of progression from first use to dependence upon each drug. Results: The estimated risk of cannabis dependence among male cannabis users was 1% in the first year after first use, and reached a peak at 4% per year 2 years later, before declining. In contrast, the estimated risk of cannabis dependence among female cannabis users remained at 1% per year for 3 years, without the peak. For both male and female cocaine users, the estimated risk for developing cocaine dependence was 5 to 6% within the first year after first use. Thereafter, the estimated risk declined from the peak value, with a somewhat faster decline for females in the next 3 years after first use. For alcohol, the estimated risk period extended for many years after the first drink, with female drinkers becoming alcohol dependent at a rate of about 1% per year; with somewhat higher risk for male drinkers. For both male and female drinkers, the period of risk for developing alcohol dependence extended for a span of more than 20 years since first use; for cannabis and cocaine, the estimated period of risk was much shorter. Comment: There are male–female differences in the risk of becoming cannabis dependent during the first several years after initiation of cannabis use, less pronounced male–female differences for alcohol, and relatively smaller male–female differences for cocaine. These results should interest scientists whose focus is upon the origins of male–female differences in the occurrence of drug dependence. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present study uses latent class methods and multiple regression to shed light on hypothesized cocaine dependence syndromes experienced by community residents, who initiated cocaine use within 24 months of survey assessment, and explores possible variation in risk. Identified within public use data files from the United States National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse (NHSDA), and with assessments completed between 1995 and 1998, the study sample consists of 927 recent-onset cocaine users, defined as having initiated cocaine use no more than 24 months prior to assessment (approximate median elapsed time since onset of use ∼12–13 months). The NHSDA included items to assess seven clinical features often associated with cocaine dependence, which were used in latent class modeling. Empirically derived latent classes, in conjunction with prior theory, tend to support a three-class solution, according to which 4% of recent-onset users are members of a class that resembles the DSM-IV cocaine dependence syndrome (mean: 5.4 clinical features (CF)); 16% might be in a cocaine dependence prodrome (mean: 2.4 CF); 80% of recent-onset cocaine users had few or no clinical features (mean<1 CF). Results from latent class regressions indicate that susceptibility to rapid transition from first cocaine use to onset of the LCA-assigned cocaine dependence syndrome might depend upon whether the user starts smoking crack-cocaine and, independently, age at first cocaine use.Neuropsychopharmacology (2006) 31, 2055–2064. doi:10.1038/sj.npp.1301037; published online 8 February 2006 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a prospective epidemiologic study of a sample of young adults, the authors estimated the risks of being drug-dependent and becoming drug-dependent in relation to the psychosocial work environment encountered during young adulthood. Data were obtained from two young adult assessments of 2,311 children who entered the first grade of primary school in 1985–1986. A total of 1,692 participants completed the first young adult assessment (YAT0) in 2000–2002, and a follow-up young adult assessment (YAT1) was completed approximately 1 year later. Work environments characterized by high job strain (low job control combined with high job demands assessed at YAT0) signaled a 2- to 3-fold excess risk of being drug-dependent (adjusted prevalence ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 4.0). In reestimation for 861 young adults (61% female) with no drug dependence at YAT0, low job control alone was associated with a 2- to 3-fold excess risk of developing drug dependence (adjusted relative risk = 2.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 6.5) between YAT0 and YAT1. The relative risk estimates did not change appreciably with statistical adjustment for demographic covariates, individual drugs used, childhood predispositional traits, job characteristics, and measurements of socioeconomic status at three time points (first grade, adolescence, and young adulthood). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The epidemiologic case-crossover method is a powerful tool for research on suspected hazards of illegal drug use, the advantage being a subject-as-own-control approach that constrains stable individual-level susceptibility traits. here, we use the case-crossover method to estimate the magnitude of excess occurrence of panic attacks during months of cocaine use vs. months of no cocaine use, motivated by a prior estimate that cocaine users have three-fold excess risk of panic attack. The self report data on cocaine and panic are from assessments of a nationally representative sample of 1071 recent panic cases age 18 years or older identified as part of the National household Surveys on Drug Abuse conducted in the United States during 1994 1997. Based on case-crossover estimates, cocaine use is associated with a three- to- four-fold excess occurrence of panic attack (estimated relative risk (RR) = 3.3, p = 0.049; 95% confidence interval: 1.0, 13.7). Year-by-yeas; the RR estimates from four independent yearly replicates (1994 1997) are 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, and 3.0. While there are several important limitations, this study adds new evidence about a previously reported suspected causal association linking cocaine use to occurrence of panic attacks, and illustrates advantages of the epidemiologic case-crossover approach and new directions in research on hazards of illegal drug use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adult-onset cases of DSM-III-R major depressive disorder (MDD) often have had a history of mood disturbances and allied clinical features during childhood or adolescence. This study seeks to illuminate these early-life disturbances, as recalled and reported by adult-onset MDD cases (i.e. those whose first episode of MDD occurred after age 18) and non-cases.Methods: Our research group has re-assessed survivors in the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area (ECA) community sample roughly 13.5 years after first diagnostic assessments in 1981. Of the 1920 participants, 150 were found to have a history of adult-onset MDD; 1755 were sub-threshold with respect to DSM criteria or reported few or no depression-related problems. Survival analysis was used to plot and study the cumulative occurrence of each clinical feature of depression from age 6 through 18 years for cases of adult-onset MDD versus non-cases.Results: The earliest and most frequently occurring forerunners of adult-onset MDD were persistent depressed mood, anhedonia, feelings of worthlessness, and thoughts of death or suicide, with persistent anhedonia and worthlessness having a special prognostic value. One-third of adult-onset cases of MDD reported at least one clinical feature before age 19 versus only 7.3% of non-cases.Limitations: The study's estimates are based on retrospective recall, although a life chart methodology sought to reduce recall inaccuracies.Conclusions: The ECA follow-up sample data, though based on retrospection, provide new details about early forerunners of adult-onset depression from a sample of survivors. When they appear in children or adolescents, persistent anhedonia and persistent feelings of worthlessness merit special attention. These two clinical features, in particular, may help predict later risk of adult-onset major depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, with an epidemiologic sample of national scope, we seek confirmatory evidence about specific mental health problems of adolescent children living with actively alcohol dependent parents (AD+ children) as compared to control children whose parents are not alcohol dependent (AD- children). Treatment sample research leads us to expect the most prominent AD+/AD- differences with respect to externalizing symptoms. Data for this study were from the 1995 and 1996 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA), with the sample and field research staff 'blinded' to the study's hypothesis. Within the NHSDA national sample, a total of 1,729 parent-child pairs living in the same household were assessed. Youths were asked to complete an adapted version of Achenbach's Youth Self-Report. Independently, the parent was asked about his or her alcohol problems using an adapted version of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed the AD+ children (n = 79) to have higher delinquency (p < .001 ) and aggressive behavior scores (p < .05) as compared to AD- children (n = 1,650). Multivariate analysis of covariance (MAN COVA), with five sociodemographic characteristics as covariates, confirmed the presence of independent delinquency excesses (but not independent aggressive behavior excesses) among children living with a parent with alcohol problems (F = 9.23, df = 1,1659, p < .01). The evidence of this study favors the hypothesis that adolescent children living with an alcohol dependent parent have more delinquency problems than other adolescents. We did not find similar patterns of association for the internalizing symptoms, nor for aggression, once delinquency was held constant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study pursued a line of large-sample epidemiological research on tobacco dependence syndromes that may appear during the first 2 years of tobacco smoking, as clinical features begin to emerge. Focusing on smokers who just recently started using tobacco may provide insights into the transitions that lead from initial smoking toward tobacco dependence. A specific focus was a possible excess risk of tobacco dependence associated with early-onset smoking. Data came from public use files of the 1995-1998 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse. Analyses were based on responses from 2,993 smokers, that is, those whose age at onset of tobacco smoking was either equal to the age at the time of the interview (n=1,030) or within 1 year of the age at the interview (n=1,963). Seven clinical features were assessed for a measure of the tobacco dependence syndrome, elicited during a standardized assessment. Findings from latent class analysis best support a model with three classes of smokers; features of tobacco dependence are prominent in just two of these classes, which in aggregate constitute 29% of the recent-onset smokers. Earlier-onset tobacco smokers may have a modestly higher probability of expressing dependence features within 2 years of smoking onset, compared with later-onset smokers (i.e., those starting after age 20). Clinical features of tobacco dependence emerge within 1-2 years after the onset of smoking. If the three-class model of tobacco dependence is correct, early-onset smoking may confer modest excess risk of becoming tobacco dependent during the first 2 years after smoking onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background: Published epidemiologic survey statistics do not allow direct cross-national comparison of drug dependence in the US and the UK, primarily because of a lack of uniformity across case definitions and methods of case ascertainment. Aims: The current study sought to re-estimate these prevalence values after calibration of case definitions (i. e., imposing methodological constraints to unify case definitions), to identify suspected determinants, and also to investigate symptom profiles among active cases. Method: Analyses of data from the US National Household Survey on Drug Abuse and the UK Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity were conducted. Prevalence of active drug dependence symptoms was estimated. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the magnitude of the association between suspected socio-demographic variables and drug dependence. Results: The prevalence of drug dependence was an estimated 1.4 % in the US and 0.5 % in the UK. This difference was somewhat attenuated when the effect of living in an urban setting was controlled. Symptom profiles among active cases were very similar. In both countries, being male, non-married, of a low socio-economic status (SES), and living in an urban setting were associated with an increased occurrence of drug dependence. Conclusion: There are US-UK differences in prevalence of active drug dependence beyond what available statistics imply and some of this difference can be explained by variations associated with living in urban and rural conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Substance Use & Misuse is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background This is an epidemiological study of a possible causal role of marijuana use in the development of Major Depressive Episode (MDE). Male-female differences in the suspected causal association have also been studied. Method Data are from 6,792 National Comorbidity Survey participants aged 15–45 years, assessed via the University of Michigan modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (UM-CIDI). Survival analysis methods were used to estimate cumulative risk of MDE by levels of marijuana use and to estimate suspected causal associations after adjustment for other influences. Results The risk of first MDE was moderately associated with the number of occasions of marijuana use and with more advanced stages of marijuana use. Relative to never users, non-dependent marijuana users had 1.6 times greater risk of MDE (95 % Confidence Interval: 1.1, 2.2), even with statistical adjustment for sex, birth cohorts, alcohol dependence, and history of daily tobacco smoking. Conclusions There was male-female variation in the degree of association between stage of marijuana involvement and MDE, but the strength of the association is modest at best. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focal point of this paper is the transition from drug use to drug dependence. We present new evidence on risk for starting to use marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol, as well as risks for progression from first drug use to the onset of drug dependence, separately for each of these drugs. Data from the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) were analyzed. The NCS had a representative sample of the United States population ages 15–54 years (n = 8,098). Survival analysis techniques were used to provide age- and time-specific risk estimates of initiating use of marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol, as well as of becoming dependent on each drug. With respect to risk of initiating use, estimated peak values for alcohol and marijuana were found at age 18, about two years earlier than the later peak in risk of initiating cocaine use. With respect to risk of meeting criteria for the clinical dependence syndrome, estimated peak values for alcohol and marijuana were found at age 17–18. Peak values for cocaine dependence were found at age 23–25. Once use began, cocaine dependence emerged early and more explosively, with an estimated 5–6% of cocaine users becoming cocaine dependent in the first year of use. Most of the observed cases of cocaine dependence met criteria for dependence within three years after initial cocaine use. Whereas some 15–16% of cocaine users had developed cocaine dependence within 10 years of first cocaine use, the corresponding values were about 8% for marijuana users, and 12–13% for alcohol users. The most novel findings of this study document a noteworthy risk for quickly developing cocaine dependence after initial cocaine use, with about one in 16 to 20 cocaine users becoming dependent within the first year of cocaine use. For marijuana and alcohol, there is a more insidious onset of the drug dependence syndrome. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study examined the prevalence of drug use in a nationally representative sample of 1989 recipients and 6840 nonrecipients of four welfare programs. Data from the 1995 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) were analyzed using the conditional form of multiple logistic regression with matching of respondents on neighborhood of residence. Weighted proportions and variances accounting for the complex sample design of the NHSDA survey were estimated using the Taylor series linearization method. The results indicate that drug use is 50% more common in households with welfare recipients than in nonwelfare households. Programs making welfare eligibility contingent on the recipient working toward a drug-free lifestyle are worth examining, although a vigilant eye must be kept on the potential unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using prospective data, we examined the relationship between occupational stress and risk for alcohol disorders. Consistent with the Demand/Control model for psychosocial work environments, we hypothesized that individuals working in high-strain occupations (jobs with high demands and low control) would be at increased risk for alcohol abuse-dependence relative to those in low-strain occupations (jobs with low demands and high control). We classified high occupational strain into two categories: (1) jobs with high psychological demands and low control, and (2) those with high physical demands and low control. A total of 18,571 study subjects were selected in 1980-1984 by taking probability samples of adult household residents at five sites of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Program. At baseline, participants completed standardized interviews that measured sociode-mographic variables and assessed whether they had met diagnostic criteria for currently or formerly active alcohol abuse-dependence syndromes. The interviews were readministered 1 year later to identify cases among the participants. Subjects were sorted into risk sets by age and residence census tract1 and persons with a previous history of alcohol abuse or dependence, as well as those who were over 64 years or had no history of full-time employment, were excluded. Among the 507 participants included in the risk sets, there were 126 incident cases of alcohol abuse-dependence and 381 age and residence-matched noncases. Relative to low-strain employment, men were found to be 27.5 times more likely to develop alcohol abuse-dependence if they had been employed in a high-strain job classified as having high psychological demands and low control ( p= 0.008), and 3.4 times at higher risk for an alcohol disorder if they were employed in high-strain jobs with high physical demands and low control ( p= 0.03). No appreciable risk was found for women in any of the high-strain job categories. The results highlight occupational stress as a potential risk factor for alcohol abuse and dependence, and add to the growing body of literature on relationships between psychosocial work environment and disease states. If confirmed in other studies, these findings identify potential sources of preventive strategies for alcohol disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: World population growth is projected to be concentrated in megacities, with increases in social inequality and urbanization-associated stress. São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) provides a forewarning of the burden of mental disorders in urban settings in developing world. The aim of this study is to estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of recently active DSM-IV mental disorders. We examined socio-demographic correlates, aspects of urban living such as internal migration, exposure to violence, and neighborhood-level social deprivation with 12-month mental disorders. Methods and Results: A representative cross-sectional household sample of 5,037 adults was interviewed face-to-face using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), to generate diagnoses of DSM-IV mental disorders within 12 months of interview, disorder severity, and treatment. Administrative data on neighborhood social deprivation were gathered. Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate individual and contextual correlates of disorders, severity, and treatment. Around thirty percent of respondents reported a 12-month disorder, with an even distribution across severity levels. Anxiety disorders were the most common disorders (affecting 19.9%), followed by mood (11%), impulse-control (4.3%), and substance use (3.6%) disorders. Exposure to crime was associated with all four types of disorder. Migrants had low prevalence of all four types compared to stable residents. High urbanicity was associated with impulse-control disorders and high social deprivation with substance use disorders. Vulnerable subgroups were observed: women and migrant men living in most deprived areas. Only one-third of serious cases had received treatment in the previous year. Discussion: Adults living in São Paulo megacity had prevalence of mental disorders at greater levels than similar surveys conducted in other areas of the world. Integration of mental health promotion and care into the rapidly expanding Brazilian primary health system should be strengthened. This strategy might become a model for poorly resourced and highly populated developing countries., Version of Record

Background: Alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drug use cause considerable morbidity and mortality, but good cross-national epidemiological data are limited. This paper describes such data from the first 17 countries participating in the World Health Organization's (WHO's) World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. Methods and Findings: Household surveys with a combined sample size of 85,052 were carried out in the Americas (Colombia, Mexico, United States), Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Ukraine), Middle East and Africa (Israel, Lebanon, Nigeria, South Africa), Asia (Japan, People's Republic of China), and Oceania (New Zealand). The WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess the prevalence and correlates of a wide variety of mental and substance disorders. This paper focuses on lifetime use and age of initiation of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine. Alcohol had been used by most in the Americas, Europe, Japan, and New Zealand, with smaller proportions in the Middle East, Africa, and China. Cannabis use in the US and New Zealand (both 42%) was far higher than in any other country. The US was also an outlier in cocaine use (16%). Males were more likely than females to have used drugs; and a sex–cohort interaction was observed, whereby not only were younger cohorts more likely to use all drugs, but the male–female gap was closing in more recent cohorts. The period of risk for drug initiation also appears to be lengthening longer into adulthood among more recent cohorts. Associations with sociodemographic variables were consistent across countries, as were the curves of incidence of lifetime use. Conclusions: Globally, drug use is not distributed evenly and is not simply related to drug policy, since countries with stringent user-level illegal drug policies did not have lower levels of use than countries with liberal ones. Sex differences were consistently documented, but are decreasing in more recent cohorts, who also have higher levels of illegal drug use and extensions in the period of risk for initiation., Version of Record

Objective: Studying adolescent‐onset brief depressive spells, we saw a chance to adapt a cross‐cohort approach for successive cross‐sectionally gathered epidemiological estimates on birth cohorts. Methods: The United States (US) study population estimates are for noninstitutionalized community‐dwelling 17‐ to 18‐year‐olds, sampled, recruited, and assessed using audio computer assisted self‐interviews for the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health each year, 2008–2016. Estimated age and year‐specific lifetime history cumulative incidence proportions are presented, with 95% confidence intervals, as well as age‐specific meta‐analysis summary estimates. Results: Occurrence of a brief depressive spell (BDS) among the 2008 U.S. 17‐year‐olds showed a surprising difference with the 2009 statistically independent sample of that same "birth cohort" assessed at age 18 years. "Negative growth" was seen instead of an expected increase in those affected. Independent replication estimates of this BDS negative growth difference were seen in multiple successive birth cohorts. Conclusions: This well‐replicated difference in BDS estimates offers a fascinating puzzle to be solved with focused inquiry. The puzzle's solution is important because National Surveys on Drug Use and Health does not assess Major Depression unless a BDS lifetime history is ascertained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]