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• Collected papers on estimations of four epidemiological parameters regarding COVID-19. • Quantitatively compared and synthesized preprints and peer-reviewed publications. • Verified the validity of the COVID-19 parameter estimations of the preprints. • Synthesized parameters can effectively capture the patterns of COVID-19. We aimed to explore the collective wisdom of preprints related to COVID-19 by comparing and synthesizing them with results of peer-reviewed publications. PubMed, Google Scholar, medRxiv, bioRxiv, arXiv, and SSRN were searched for papers regarding the estimation of four epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: the basic reproduction number, incubation period, infectious period, and case-fatality-rate. Distributions of parameters and timeliness of preprints and peer-reviewed papers were compared. Four parameters in two groups were synthesized by bootstrapping, and their validities were evaluated by simulated cumulative cases of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-dead-cumulative (SEIRDC) model. A total of 106 papers were included for analysis. The distributions of four parameters in two literature groups were close, and the timeliness of preprints was better. Synthesized estimates of the basic reproduction number (3.18, 95% CI 2.85–3.53), incubation period (5.44 days, 95% CI 4.98–5.99), infectious period (6.25 days, 95% CI 5.09–7.51), and case-fatality-rate (4.51%, 95% CI 3.41%–6.29%) were obtained. Simulated cumulative cases of the SEIRDC model matched well with the onset cases in China. The validity of the COVID-19 parameter estimations of the preprints was on par with that of peer-reviewed publications, and synthesized results of literatures could reduce the uncertainty and be used for epidemic decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) mostly affects the health of infants and preschool children. Many studies of HFMD in different regions have been published. However, the epidemiological characteristics and space-time patterns of individual-level HFMD cases in a major city such as Beijing are unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate epidemiological features and identify high relative risk space-time HFMD clusters at a fine spatial scale. Methods: Detailed information on age, occupation, pathogen and gender was used to analyze the epidemiological features of HFMD epidemics. Data on individual-level HFMD cases were examined using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis to identify the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD incidence. Spatial filtering combined with scan statistics methods were used to detect HFMD clusters. Results: A total of 157,707 HFMD cases (60.25% were male, 39.75% were female) reported in Beijing from 2008 to 2012 included 1465 severe cases and 33 fatal cases. The annual average incidence rate was 164.3 per 100,000 (ranged from 104.2 in 2008 to 231.5 in 2010). Male incidence was higher than female incidence for the 0 to 14-year age group, and 93.88% were nursery children or lived at home. Areas at a higher relative risk were mainly located in the urban-rural transition zones (the percentage of the population at risk ranged from 33.89% in 2011 to 39.58% in 2012) showing High-High positive spatial association for HFMD incidence. The most likely space-time cluster was located in the mid-east part of the Fangshan district, southwest of Beijing. Conclusions: The spatial-time patterns of Beijing HFMD (2008–2012) showed relatively steady. The population at risk were mainly distributed in the urban-rural transition zones. Epidemiological features of Beijing HFMD were generally consistent with the previous research. The findings generated computational insights useful for disease surveillance, risk assessment and early warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel influenza A (H1N1) has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the epidemiological data concerning the 18445 HFMD-infected cases in Beijing in 2008. The main findings are as follows. (i) Seasonal variations in incidence were observed, with a peak observed during the summer season, especially in May. Male patients outnumber female patients by 1.57:1. (ii) Most cases occurred in children 4 years old or younger. Outperforming Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution as to model fitness when analyzing patient ages, log-normal distribution indicates that the estimated mean age is 3.4 years. (iii) The age distribution seems to indicate cyclic peaks with roughly one-year intervals. (iv) Correlation analyses (ρ = 0.9864) show that time of birth in different months has an impact on the chance of being infected by HFMD. Birth month seems to present a high risk factor on infants and young children. (v) The morbidity rate is 132.7/100000 during the HFMD epidemic in Beijing in 2008. The morbidity map shows that the risks of HFMD infection in areas close to the city center and suburbans are much lower than those in the urban-rural transition zones. Spatial risks inferred from the morbidity map demonstrate a clear circular pattern. (vi) The prevention and control measures taken by the public health departments seem to be effective during the summer season, resulting in the early ending of the epidemic (one month earlier than the natural season) and reduced outbreak size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this research was to design and develop the Epidemiological Investigation and Intelligent Analytical System for foodborne disease to improve the ability to control foodborne disease events in field epidemiological investigations. The system is composed of standard electronic investigation questionnaires for collecting data from field investigations, a statistical analysis module integrated with statistically programmed methods for calculating odds and risk ratios for risk factors, an intelligent auxiliary diagnosis module featuring a feedback function able to enhance diagnostic accuracy, and a knowledge database for acquiring information in areas related to foodborne disease. The system has been provided to the People’s Liberation Army Emergency Response Team for public health events. In field experiments, the system was very effective and improved work efficiency in epidemiological investigations of foodborne disease. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]