Search

We adapted a mathematical modeling approach to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence and fraction treated for 101 municipalities of Brazil during 2008-2017. We found the average TB incidence rate decreased annually (0.95%), and fraction treated increased (0.30%). We estimated that 9% of persons with TB did not receive treatment in 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Symptomatic acute CHIKV infection is mainly characterized by high fever and severe joint pain (arthralgia) that can compromise daily life activities [[2]]. CHIKV infection and its complications can be the underlying cause of death or trigger a decompensation of preexisting medical conditions leading to a fatal outcome. Atypical Chikungunya virus infections: clinical manifestations, mortality and risk factors for severe disease during the 2005-2006 outbreak on Reunion. A major epidemic of chikungunya virus infection on Reunion Island, France, 2005-2006. [Extracted from the article]

Background: After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales. Methods/Principal findings: Longitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. More specifically, scrapyards and sites associated with tires (strongly associated with incidence during periods of minimal transmission), require sustained entomological surveillance, particularly during interepidemic intervals and in the urban periphery. Intersectoral collaborations that address urban violence are critical for facilitating the regular activities of vector control agents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health problem, despite recent achievements in reducing incidence and mortality rates. In Brazil, these achievements were above the worldwide average, but marked by large regional heterogeneities. In Fortaleza (5th largest city in Brazil), the tuberculosis cure rate has been declining and treatment abandonment has been increasing in the past decade, despite a reduction in incidence and an increase in directly observed therapy (DOT). These trends put efforts to eliminate tuberculosis at risk. We therefore sought to determine social and programmatic determinants of tuberculosis incidence and treatment abandonment in Fortaleza.Methods: We analyzed sociodemographic and clinical data for all new tuberculosis cases notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from Fortaleza between 2007 and 2014. We calculated incidence rates for 117 neighborhoods in Fortaleza, assessed their spatial clustering, and used spatial regression models to quantify associations between neighborhood-level covariates and incidence rates. We used hierarchical logistic regression models to evaluate how individual- and neighborhood-level covariates predicted tuberculosis treatment abandonment.Results: There were 12,338 new cases reported during the study period. Case rates across neighborhoods were significantly positively clustered in two low-income areas close to the city center. In an adjusted model, tuberculosis rates were significantly higher in neighborhoods with lower literacy, higher sewerage access and homicide rates, and a greater proportion of self-reported black residents. Treatment was abandoned in 1901 cases (15.4%), a rate that rose by 71% between 2007 and 2014. Abandonment was significantly associated with many individual sociodemographic and clinical factors. Notably, being recommended for DOT was protective for those who completed DOT, but associated with abandonment for those who did not.Conclusion: Low socioeconomic status areas have higher tuberculosis rates, and low socioeconomic individuals have higher risk of treatment abandonment, in Fortaleza. Treatment abandonment rates are growing despite the advent of universal DOT recommendations in Brazil. Proactive social policies, and active contact tracing to find missed cases, may help reduce the tuberculosis burden in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data—specifically, 2-wave panel data—was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological developments, particularly focused on partial identifiability and the diversity of a priori parameter constraints associated with different human-ecosystem interfaces. As a consequence there can be more nuanced planning and evaluation of malaria control programs than heretofore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil currently contributes 42 % of all malaria cases reported in the Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where major progress towards malaria elimination has been achieved in recent years. In 2014, malaria burden in Brazil (143,910 microscopically confirmed cases and 41 malaria-related deaths) has reached its lowest levels in 35 years, Plasmodium falciparum is highly focal, and the geographic boundary of transmission has considerably shrunk. Transmission in Brazil remains entrenched in the Amazon Basin, which accounts for 99.5 % of the country's malaria burden. This paper reviews major lessons learned from past and current malaria control policies in Brazil. A comprehensive discussion of the scientific and logistic challenges that may impact malaria elimination efforts in the country is presented in light of the launching of the Plan for Elimination of Malaria in Brazil in November 2015. Challenges for malaria elimination addressed include the high prevalence of symptomless and submicroscopic infections, emerging anti-malarial drug resistance in P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and the lack of safe anti-relapse drugs, the largely neglected burden of malaria in pregnancy, the need for better vector control strategies where Anopheles mosquitoes present a highly variable biting behaviour, human movement, the need for effective surveillance and tools to identify foci of infection in areas with low transmission, and the effects of environmental changes and climatic variability in transmission. Control actions launched in Brazil and results to come are likely to influence control programs in other countries in the Americas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To evaluate the effect of insecticide spraying for vector control and elimination of infected dogs on the incidence of human infection with L. infantum, a randomized community intervention trial was carried out in the city of Teresina, Brazil. Methods/Principal Findings: Within each of ten localities in the city, four blocks were selected and randomized to 4 interventions: 1) spraying houses and animal pens with insecticide; 2) eliminating infected dogs; 3) combination of spraying and eliminating dogs, and 4) nothing. The main outcome is the incidence of infection assessed by the conversion of the Montenegro skin test (MST) after 18 months of follow-up in residents aged ≥1 year with no previous history of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Reactions were measured at 48–72 h, induration of ≥5 mm considered positive. Interventions were executed after the baseline interview and repeated 6 and 12 months later. The effects of each type of intervention scheme on the incidence of infection were assessed by calculating relative risks and 95% confidence intervals using Poisson population-averaged regression models with robust variance. Among the 1105 participants, 408 (37%) were MST positive at baseline. Of the 697 negatives, only 423 (61%) were reexamined at the end of the follow-up; 151 (36%) of them converted to a positive MST. Only dog culling had some statistically significant effect on reducing the incidence of infection, with estimates of effectiveness varying between 27% and 52%, depending on the type of analysis performed. Conclusions/Significance: In light of the continuous spread of VL in Brazil despite the large scale deployment of insecticide spraying and dog culling, the relatively low to moderate effectiveness of dog culling and the non-significant effect of insecticide spraying on the incidence of human infection, we conclude that there is an urgent need for revision of the Brazilian VL control program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Methods and Findings: Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004–2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66–0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). Conclusion: A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyzed the levels and trends of Chagas disease-related deaths in Brazil, 2000–2019. • Chronic Chagas disease with heart involvement was the most common clinical form mentioned in death certificates. • The highest mortality rates were observed among males, the elderly, black race/skin color, individuals with low education level, and in Brazilian regions/states encompassing important endemic areas in the past. • Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant decreasing trend in Brazil over the entire period. • Chagas disease remains an important and neglected cause of death in Brazil, showing a marked regional variation with important health care and social implications. Chagas disease remains an important public health problem with high morbidity and mortality in several Latin American countries. This nationwide population-based ecological study analyzes the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2019. We included all deaths reported in Brazil in which Chagas disease was mentioned in the death certificate either as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated and time trends analysis was performed using joinpoint regression models. In the study period, a total of 22,663,092 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Chagas disease was identified in 122,291 deaths (0.54%), 94.788 (77.5%) as an underlying cause and 27,503 (22.5%) as an associated cause. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 3.22 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.14-3.30). Chronic Chagas disease with cardiac involvement was the predominant clinical presentation mentioned. The highest mortality rates were observed in males, age group ≥80 years, black race/skin color, schooling 1-3 years of study, and residents in the Central-West region. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant declining trend at the national level in the period (Average Annual Percent Change: -3.1%; 95% CI: -3.3; -3.0), with different local patterns and a more pronounced reduction in important endemic areas in the past. The findings show that, despite a consistent decline in mortality rates in Brazil over the study period, Chagas disease remains an important and neglected cause of death in the country, showing a marked regional variation that has social and health care implications. In addition to the control measures for disease transmission, it is necessary to guarantee access, coverage, and quality of health care to Chagas disease patients, seeking to prevent the occurrence of severe forms and deaths from the disease. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Methods: Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. Principal Findings/Conclusions P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.