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Dengue poses a significant health and economic burden in the WHO South-East Asia Region. Approaches for control need to be aligned with current knowledge on the epidemiology of dengue in the region. Such knowledge will ensure improved targeting of interventions to reduce dengue incidence and its socioeconomic impact. This review was undertaken to describe the contemporary epidemiology of dengue and critically analyse the existing surveillance strategies in the region. Over recent decades, dengue incidence has continued to increase with geographical expansion. The region has now become hyper-endemic for multiple dengue virus serotypes/genotypes. Every epidemic cycle was associated with a change of predominant serotype/genotype and this was often associated with severe disease with intense transmission. Classical larval indices are widely used in vector surveillance and adult mosquito samplings are not implemented as a part of routine surveillance. Further, there is a lack of integration of entomological and disease surveillance systems, often leading to inaction or delays in dengue prevention and control. Disease surveillance does not capture all cases, resulting in under-reporting, and has thus failed to adequately represent the true burden of disease in the region. Possible solutions include incorporating adult mosquito sampling into routine vector surveillance, the establishment of laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, integrated vector and dengue disease surveillance and climate-based early warning systems using available technologies like mobile apps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are endemic in Indonesia. However, prevalence data for many parts of the country are incomplete. The aim of this study was to determine human STH prevalence and knowledge and practices relating to STH risk behaviour, to provide a current view of the status of STH infection in rural communities in Central Java. A cross-sectional survey of 16 villages was conducted in Semarang, Central Java in 2015. Demographic and household data together with information about knowledge and practices relating to STH and hygiene were elicited through face-to-face interviews. Stool samples were collected and examined using the flotation method. Children (aged 2–12 years) also had their haemoglobin (Hb) levels, height and weight data collected, and BMI estimated. Data were analysed using univariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 6,466 individuals with a mean age of 33.5 years (range: 2–93) from 2,195 households were interviewed. The overall prevalence of STH was 33.8% with Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm) the predominant nematode identified (prevalence = 26.0%). Hookworm and Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) were found in 7.9% and 1.8% of participants, respectively. Females were at increased odds of infection with A. lumbricoides (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI [1.02–1.29], p = 0.02). Adults in age groups 51–60 and over 60 years had the highest odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 3.01, 95% CI [1.84–4.91], p<0.001 and adjusted OR 3.79, 95% CI [2.30–6.26], p<0.001, respectively) compared to 6–12 year olds. Farmers also had higher odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 2.36, 95% CI [1.17–4.76], p = 0.02) compared to other occupation categories. Poverty (OR 2.14, 95% CI [1.77–2.58], p<0.001), overcrowding (OR 1.35, 95% CI [1.27–1.44], p<0.001), goat ownership (OR 1.61, 95% CI [1.10–2.41], p = 0.02) and the presence of dry floor space in the home (OR 0.73, 95% CI [0.58–0.91], p = 0.01) were all household factors significantly associated with an increased odds of infection. Infection with STH was not significantly associated with the gastrointestinal illness (p>0.05), BMI or Hb levels; however, one third of all 2–12 year olds surveyed were found to be anaemic (i.e. Hb concentrations below 110g/l or 115g/l for children under 5 and 5 years or older, respectively), with a greater proportion of school-age children at risk. Knowledge and behaviour related to hygiene and gastrointestinal diseases varied widely and were generally not associated with STH infection. The study revealed that STH infection remains endemic in Central Java despite ongoing deworming programs. Current control efforts would benefit from being re-evaluated to determine a more effective way forward. Author summary: Among the major NTDs, STH are one of the most common disabling chronic infections. Currently available drug treatments, whilst considered safe and generally well tolerated, do not confer protection against new infections. In Indonesia, prevalences of STH of up to 90% have been reported but these estimates are based on data from the 1980s and 90s. More up-to-date STH prevalence estimates are urgently needed to help guide future control efforts. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in rural villages in Semarang, Central Java to determine human STH prevalence and associated risk factors. One-third of all cohort participants were positive for STH with prevalences of 26%, 7.9% and 1.8% identified for Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichiura at 7.9% and 1.8%, respectively. Risk of A. lumbricoides infection was higher for females, whilst farmers and adults over 50 had an increased risk of hookworm infection. Poverty, overcrowding in the home and goat ownership were also associated with an increased risk at the household level. Soil-transmitted helminthiases remains a significant health problem in Central Java, Indonesia, exacerbated by limited knowledge about STH, poor sanitation and hygiene and poverty prevalent in the region. Control efforts would benefit from an integrated approach emphasising WASH, health education and chemotherapy. Further studies investigating environmental contamination with STH in and around homes in endemic areas could provide further insight into links between household factors and STH identified in our study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Schistosomiasis japonica is an ancient parasitic disease that has severely impacted human health causing a substantial disease burden not only to the Chinese people but also residents of other countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and, before the 1970s, Japan. Since the founding of the new People's Republic of China (P. R. China), effective control strategies have been implemented with the result that the prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica has decreased markedly in the past 70 years. Historically, the Dongting Lake region in Hunan province is recognised as one of the most highly endemic for schistosomiasis in the P.R. China. The area is characterized by vast marshlands outside the lake embankments and, until recently, the presence of large numbers of domestic animals such as bovines, goats and sheep that can act as reservoir hosts for Schistosoma japonicum. Considerable social, economic and environmental changes have expanded the Oncomelania hupensis hupensis intermediate snail host areas in the Dongting lake region increasing the potential for both the emergence of new hot spots for schistosomiasis transmission, and for its re-emergence in areas where infection is currently under control. In this paper, we review the history, the current endemic status of schistosomiasis and the control strategies in operation in the Dongting Lake region. We also explore epidemiological factors contributing to S. japonicum transmission and highlight key research findings from studies undertaken on schistosomiasis mainly in Hunan but also other endemic Chinese provinces over the past 10 years. We also consider the implications of these research findings on current and future approaches that can lead to the sustainable integrated control and final elimination of schistosomiasis from the P. R. China and other countries in the region where this unyielding disease persists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cross-border malaria transmission poses a challenge for countries to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. Because of a dramatic increase of cross-border population movement between China and 14 neighbouring countries, the malaria epidemic risk in China's land border regions needs to be understood. Methods: In this study, individual case-based epidemiological data on malaria in the 136 counties of China with international land borders, from 2011 to 2014, were extracted from the National Infectious Disease Information System. The Plasmodium species, seasonality, spatiotemporal distribution and changing features of imported and indigenous cases were analysed using descriptive spatial and temporal methods. Results: A total of 1948 malaria cases were reported, with 1406 (72.2%) imported cases and 542 (27.8%) indigenous cases. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species, with 1536 malaria cases occurrence (78.9%), following by Plasmodium falciparum (361 cases, 18.5%), and the others (51 cases, 2.6%). The magnitude and geographic distribution of malaria in land border counties shrunk sharply during the elimination period. Imported malaria cases were with a peak of 546 cases in 2011, decreasing yearly in the following years. The number of counties with imported cases decreased from 28 counties in 2011 to 26 counties in 2014. Indigenous malaria cases presented a markedly decreasing trend, with 319 indigenous cases in 2011 reducing to only 33 indigenous cases in 2014. The number of counties with indigenous cases reduced from 26 counties in 2011 to 10 counties in 2014. However, several bordering counties of Yunnan province adjacent to Myanmar reported indigenous malaria cases in the four consecutive years from 2011 to 2014. Conclusions: The scale and extent of malaria occurrence in the international land border counties of China decreased dramatically during the elimination period. However, several high-risk counties, especially along the China-Myanmar border, still face a persistent risk of malaria introduction and transmission. The study emphasizes the importance and urgency of cross-border cooperation between neighbouring countries to jointly face malaria threats to elimination goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With the dramatic increase in international travel among Chinese people, the risk of malaria importation from malaria-endemic regions threatens the achievement of the malaria elimination goal of China. Methods: Epidemiological investigations of all imported malaria cases were conducted in nine provinces of China from 1 Nov, 2013 to 30 Oct, 2014. Plasmodium species, spatiotemporal distribution, clinical severity, preventive measures and infection history of the imported malaria cases were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 1420 imported malaria cases were recorded during the study period, with P. falciparum (723 cases, 50.9 %) and P. vivax (629 cases, 44.3 %) being the two predominant species. Among them, 81.8 % of cases were in Chinese overseas labourers. The imported cases returned from 41 countries, mainly located in Africa (58.9 %) and Southeast Asia (39.4 %). About a quarter (25.5 %, 279/1094) of counties in the nine study provinces were affected by imported malaria cases. There were 112 cases (7.9 %) developing complicated malaria, including 12 deaths (case fatality rate: 0.8 %). Only 27.8 % of the imported cases had taken prophylactic anti-malarial drugs. While staying abroad, 27.7 % of the cases had experienced two or more episodes of malaria infection. The awareness of clinical manifestations and the capacity for malaria diagnosis were weak in private clinics and primary healthcare facilities. Conclusions: Imported malaria infections among Chinese labourers, returned from various countries, poses an increasing challenge to the malaria elimination programme in China. The risk of potential re-introduction of malaria into inland malaria-free areas of China should be urgently addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth observation (EO) is the use of remote sensing and in situ observations to gather data on the environment. It finds increasing application in the study of environmentally modulated neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Obtaining and assuring the quality of the relevant spatially and temporally indexed EO data remain challenges. Our objective was to review the Earth observation products currently used in studies of NTD epidemiology and to discuss fundamental issues relating to spatial data quality (SDQ), which limit the utilization of EO and pose challenges for its more effective use. We searched Web of Science and PubMed for studies related to EO and echinococossis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth infections. Relevant literature was also identified from the bibliographies of those papers. We found that extensive use is made of EO products in the study of NTD epidemiology; however, the quality of these products is usually given little explicit attention. We review key issues in SDQ concerning spatial and temporal scale, uncertainty, and the documentation and use of quality information. We give examples of how these issues may interact with uncertainty in NTD data to affect the output of an epidemiological analysis. We conclude that researchers should give careful attention to SDQ when designing NTD spatial-epidemiological studies. This should be used to inform uncertainty analysis in the epidemiological study. SDQ should be documented and made available to other researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) has changed over the past decades with the emergence of highly virulent strains. The role of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization as part of the clinical spectrum of CDI is complex because many risk factors are common to both disease and asymptomatic states. In this article, we review the role of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization in the progression to symptomatic CDI, describe the epidemiology of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization, assess the effectiveness of screening and intensive infection control practices for patients at risk of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization, and discuss the implications for clinical practice.Methods: A narrative review was performed in PubMed for articles published from January 1980 to February 2015 using search terms 'Clostridium difficile' and 'colonization' or 'colonisation' or 'carriage'.Results: There is no clear definition for asymptomatic CDI and the terms carriage and colonization are often used interchangeably. The prevalence of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization varies depending on a number of host, pathogen, and environmental factors; current estimates of asymptomatic colonization may be underestimated as stool culture is not practical in a clinical setting.Conclusions: Asymptomatic C. difficile colonization presents challenging concepts in the overall picture of this disease and its management. Individuals who are colonized by the organism may acquire protection from progression to disease, however they also have the potential to contribute to transmission in healthcare settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have demonstrated seasonal variability in rates of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Synthesising all available information on seasonality is a necessary step in identifying large-scale epidemiological patterns and elucidating underlying causes. Methods: Three medical and life sciences publication databases were searched from inception to October 2014 for longitudinal epidemiological studies written in English, Spanish or Portuguese that reported the incidence of CDI. The monthly frequency of CDI were extracted, standardized and weighted according to the number of follow-up months. Cross correlation coefficients (XCORR) were calculated to examine the correlation and lag between the year-month frequencies of reported CDI across hemispheres and continents. Results: The search identified 13, 5 and 2 studies from North America, Europe, and Oceania, respectively that met the inclusion criteria. CDI had a similar seasonal pattern in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere characterized by a peak in spring and lower frequencies of CDI in summer/autumn with a lag of 8 months (XCORR = 0.60) between hemispheres. There was no difference between the seasonal patterns across European and North American countries. Conclusion: CDI demonstrates a distinct seasonal pattern that is consistent across North America, Europe and Oceania. Further studies are required to identify the driving factors of the observed seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Objectives To identify the spatio-temporal patterns and environmental factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in Queensland, Australia. Methods Data from patients tested for CDI were collected from 392 postcodes across Queensland between May 2003 and December 2012. A binomial logistic regression model, with CDI status as the outcome, was built in a Bayesian framework, incorporating fixed effects for sex, age, source of the sample (healthcare facility or community), elevation, rainfall, land surface temperature, seasons of the year, time in months and spatially unstructured random effects at the postcode level. Results C. difficile was identified in 13.1% of the samples, the proportion significantly increased over the study period from 5.9% in 2003 to 18.8% in 2012. CDI peaked in summer (14.6%) and was at its lowest in autumn (10.1%). Other factors significantly associated with CDI included female sex (OR: 1.08; 95%CI: 1.01–1.14), community source samples (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.05–1.20), and higher rainfall (OR: 1.09; 95%CI: 1.02–1.17). There was no significant spatial variation in CDI after accounting for the fixed effects in the model. Conclusions There was an increasing annual trend in CDI in Queensland from 2003 to 2012. Peaks of CDI were found in summer (December–February), which is at odds with the current epidemiological pattern described for northern hemisphere countries. Epidemiologically plausible explanations for this disparity require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods: Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results: A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions: This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An outbreak detection and response system, using time series moving percentile method based on historical data, in China has been used for identifying dengue fever outbreaks since 2008. For dengue fever outbreaks reported from 2009 to 2012, this system achieved a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 99.8% and a median time to detection of 3 days, which indicated that the system was a useful decision tool for dengue fever control and risk-management programs in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In China, the national malaria elimination programme has been operating since 2010. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological changes in patterns of malaria in China from intensified control to elimination stages. Methods: Data on nationwide malaria cases from 2004 to 2012 were extracted from the Chinese national malaria surveillance system. The secular trend, gender and age features, seasonality, and spatial distribution by Plasmodium species were analysed. Results: In total, 238,443 malaria cases were reported, and the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum increased drastically from <10% before 2010 to 55.2% in 2012. From 2004 to 2006, malaria showed a significantly increasing trend and with the highest incidence peak in 2006 (4.6/100,000), while from 2007 onwards, malaria decreased sharply to only 0.18/100,000 in 2012. Males and young age groups became the predominantly affected population. The areas affected by Plasmodium vivax malaria shrunk, while areas affected by P. falciparum malaria expanded from 294 counties in 2004 to 600 counties in 2012. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that malaria has decreased dramatically in the last five years, especially since the Chinese government launched a malaria elimination programme in 2010, and areas with reported falciparum malaria cases have expanded over recent years. These findings suggest that elimination efforts should be improved to meet these changes, so as to achieve the nationwide malaria elimination goal in China in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Burundi. An overview about the role of NTD mapping in defining the population at risk of infections and for rolling out drug delivery strategies at the national level is provided. Also tackled are the lessons learned after the four-year programme implementation to control NTDs.

The article discusses the importance of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) as critical components in controlling and eliminating sustainable soil-transmitted helminth (STH) and schistosomiasis. Topics discussed include the guidelines published by the World Health Organization (WHO) etitled, "Helminth control in school-age children: a guide for managers of control programmes, 2nd edition," the progress in STH control, and the poor sanitation coverage as burden for STH control.

Objectives: To estimate the prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) infection, and associations between HSV-2 and incident HIV infection, among women at higher risk for HIV infection in Beira, Mozambique. Methods: Between 2009 and 2012, 411 women aged 18–35 years at higher risk of HIV acquisition (defined as having had two or more sexual partners in the month prior to study enrollment) were enrolled and followed monthly for one year. At each study visit, they were counseled, interviewed, and tested for HSV-2 and HIV antibodies. Results: The HSV-2 prevalence at baseline was 60.6% (95% CI: 55.7% –65.4%). Increasing age (aOR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.74–4.97, P<0.001 and aOR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.58–7.29, P = 0.002 for age groups of 21–24 and 25–35 years old respectively), lower educational level (aOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.09–3.02, P = 0.022), working full time (aOR = 8.56, 95% CI: 1.01–72.53, P = 0.049) and having practiced oral sex (aOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.16–7.89, P = 0.024) were strongly associated with prevalent HSV-2 infection. Thirty one participants seroconverted for HSV-2 (20.5%; 95% CI: 14.4% –27.9%) and 22 for HIV during the study period. The frequency of vaginal sex with a casual partner using a condom in the last 7 days was independently associated with incident HSV-2 infection (aOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.05–3.47, P = 0.034). Positive HSV-2 serology at baseline was not significantly associated with risk of subsequent HIV seroconversion. Conclusions: Young women engaging in risky sexual behaviors in Beira had high prevalence and incidence of HSV-2 infection. Improved primary HSV-2 control strategies are urgently needed in Beira. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Animal and human infection with multiple parasite species is the norm rather than the exception, and empirical studies and animal models have provided evidence for a diverse range of interactions among parasites. We demonstrate how an optimal control strategy should be tailored to the pathogen community and tempered by species-level knowledge of drug sensitivity with use of a simple epidemiological model of gastrointestinal nematodes. Methods: We construct a fully mechanistic model of macroparasite co-infection and use it to explore a range of control scenarios involving chemotherapy as well as improvements to sanitation. Results: Scenarios are presented whereby control not only releases a more resistant parasite from antagonistic interactions, but risks increasing co-infection rates, exacerbating the burden of disease. In contrast, synergisms between species result in their becoming epidemiologically slaved within hosts, presenting a novel opportunity for controlling drug resistant parasites by targeting co-circulating species. Conclusions: Understanding the effects on control of multi-parasite species interactions, and vice versa, is of increasing urgency in the advent of integrated mass intervention programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002–2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. Methods: Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002–2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003–2005; 2006; and 2007–2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. Results: JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. Conclusion: JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chikungunya is a re-emerging arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Although principally endemic to Africa and Asia, recent outbreaks have occurred in Europe following introductions by returning travellers. A particularly large outbreak occurred on Réunion Island in 2006, the published data from which forms the basis of the current study. A simple, deterministic mathematical model of the transmission of the virus between humans and mosquitoes was constructed and parameterised with the up-to-date literature on infection biology. The model is fitted to the large Réunion epidemic, resulting in an estimate of 4.1 for the type reproduction number of chikungunya. Although simplistic, the model provided a close approximation of both the peak incidence of the outbreak and the final epidemic size. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated the strong influence that both the latent period of infection in humans and the pre-patent period have on these two epidemiological outcomes. We show why separating these variables, which are epidemiologically distinct in chikungunya infections, is not only necessary for accurate model fitting but also important in informing control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, inadequate water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are major contributors to mortality and burden of disease. We aimed to quantify the role of WASH in the risk of Schistosoma hematobium, Schistosoma mansoni, and hookworm infection in school-aged children; to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of helminth infection due to WASH; and to spatially predict the risk of infection. We generated predictive maps of areas in West Africa without piped water, toilet facilities, and improved household floor types, using spatial risk models. Our maps identified areas in West Africa where the millennium development goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. There was a generally better geographical coverage for toilets and improved household floor types compared with water supply. These predictions, and their uncertainty, were then used as covariates in Bayesian geostatistical models for the three helminth species. We estimated a smaller attributable fraction for water supply in S. mansoni (PAF 47%) compared with S. hematobium (PAF 71%). The attributable fraction of S. hematobium infection due to natural floor type (PAF 21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (PAF 16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (PAF 86%). Five percent of hookworm cases could have been prevented if improved toilet facilities had been available. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WASH allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where preventive chemotherapy integrated with interventions to improve WASH will yield the greatest health benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemics have serious consequences for human and animal health and the livestock trade. Recent epidemics have occurred in previously unaffected regions, increasing concerns that the geographical range of RVF will continue to expand. We conducted an extensive, systematic review of the literature to obtain serological data for RVF in Africa, collected between 1970 and 2000 from human, livestock and wild ungulate populations. Aims were to calculate sub-national estimates of RVF infection prevalence and to define areas where no information was available. We presented the data (aggregated at the first administrative level of countries) using a geographical information system. Data from 71 publications were used to build a spatially explicit Bayesian logistic-regression model, with spatial and non-spatial random effects, allowing us to identify clusters of high and low RVF seroprevalence, and fixed effects that described the disparate nature of the survey subjects and methods. Significant high-prevalence clusters encompassed areas that had experienced epidemics during the late 20th century and significant low-prevalence clusters were located in contiguous areas of Western and Central Africa. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: There are few studies that have investigated uncertainties surrounding the scientific community's knowledge of the geographical distribution of major animal diseases. This is particularly relevant to Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease causing destructive outbreaks in livestock and man, as the geographical range of the disease is widening to involve previously unaffected regions. In the current study we investigate the application of methods developed in the decision sciences: multiple criteria decision making using weighted linear combination and ordered weighted averages, and Dempster-Shafer theory, implemented within the geographical information system IDRISI, to obtain a greater understanding of uncertainty related to the geographical distribution of RVF. The focus is on presenting alternate methods where extensive field data are not available and traditional, model-based approaches to disease mapping are impossible to conduct. Results: Using a compensatory multiple criteria decision making model based on weighted linear combination, most of sub-Saharan Africa was suitable for endemic circulation of RVF. In contrast, areas where rivers and lakes traversed semi-arid regions, such as those bordering the Sahara, were highly suitable for RVF epidemics and wet, tropical areas of central Africa had low suitability. Using a moderately non-compensatory model based on ordered weighted averages, the areas considered suitable for endemic and epidemic RVF were more restricted. Varying the relative weights of the different factors in the models did not affect suitability estimates to a large degree, but variations in model structure had a large impact on our suitability estimates. Our Dempster-Shafer analysis supported the belief that a range of semi-arid areas were suitable for RVF epidemics and the plausibility that many other areas of the continent were suitable. Areas where high levels of uncertainty were highlighted included the Ethiopian Highlands, southwest Kenya and parts of West Africa. Conclusion: We have demonstrated the potential of methods developed in the decision sciences to improve our understanding of uncertainties surrounding the geographical distribution of animal diseases, particularly where information is sparse, and encourage wider application of the decision science methodology in the field of animal health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Human echinococcoses are parasitic helminth infections that constitute a serious public health concern in several regions across the world. Cystic (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE) in China represent a high proportion of the total global burden of these infections. This study was conducted to predict the spatial distribution of human seropositivity for Echinococcus species in Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), with the aim of identifying communities where targeted prevention and control efforts are required. Methods: Bayesian geostatistical models with environmental and demographic covariates were developed to predict spatial variation in the risk of human seropositivity for Echinococcus granulosus (the cause of CE) and E. multilocularis (the cause of AE). Data were collected from three cross-sectional surveys of school children conducted in Xiji County in 2002–2003, 2006–2007 and 2012–2013. Environmental data were derived from high-resolution satellite images and meteorological data. Results: The overall seroprevalence of E. granulosus and E. multilocularis was 33.4 and 12.2%, respectively, across the three surveys. Seropositivity for E. granulosus was significantly associated with summer and winter precipitation, landscape fragmentation variables and the extent of areas covered by forest, shrubland, water and bareland/artificial surfaces. Seropositivity for E. multilocularis was significantly associated with summer and winter precipitations, landscape fragmentation variables and the extent of shrubland and water bodies. Spatial correlation occurred over greater distances for E. granulosus than for E. multilocularis. The predictive maps showed that the risk of seropositivity for E. granulosus expanded across Xiji during the three surveys, while the risk of seropositivity for E. multilocularis became more confined in communities located in the south. Conclusions: The identification of high-risk areas for seropositivity for these parasites, and a better understanding of the role of the environment in determining the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus spp. may help to guide and monitor improvements in human echinococcosis control strategies by allowing targeted allocation of resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3-12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=⇔0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is little evidence on prevalence or risk factors for soil transmitted helminth infections in Timor-Leste. This study describes the epidemiology, water, sanitation and hygiene, and socioeconomic risk factors of STH and intestinal protozoa amongst communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, a baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted across 18 villages, with data from six additional villages. Stool samples were assessed for soil transmitted helminth and protozoal infections using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and questionnaires administered to collect water, sanitation and hygiene and socioeconomic data. Risk factors for infection were assessed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression, stratified by age group (preschool, school-aged and adult). Overall, soil transmitted helminth prevalence was 69% (95% Confidence Interval 67–71%), with Necator americanus being most common (60%; 95% Confidence Interval 58–62%) followed by Ascaris spp. (24%; 95% Confidence Interval 23–26%). Ascaris-N. americanus co-infection was common (17%; 95% Confidence Interval 15%-18%). Giardia duodenalis was the main protozoan identified (13%; 95% Confidence Interval 11–14%). Baseline water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure and behaviours were poor. Although risk factors varied by age of participants and parasite species, risk factors for N. americanus infection included, generally, age in years, male sex, and socioeconomic quintile. Risk factors for Ascaris included age in years for children, and piped water to the yard for adults. In this first known assessment of community-based prevalence and associated risk factors in Timor-Leste, soil transmitted helminth infections were highly prevalent, indicating a need for soil transmitted helminth control. Few associations with water, sanitation and hygiene were evident, despite water, sanitation and hygiene being generally poor. In our water, sanitation and hygiene we will investigate implications of improving WASH on soil transmitted helminth infection in impoverished communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]