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Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and critical infrastructures during hurricanes and violent storms. Millions of people living in low-lying coastal zones and critical infrastructure within this zone rely on accurate storm surge forecast for disaster prevention and flood hazard mitigation. However, variability in residual sea level up-estuary, defined here as observed sea level minus predicted tide, can enhance total water levels; variability in the surge thus needs to be captured accurately to reduce uncertainty in site specific hazard assessment. Delft3D-FLOW is used to investigate surge variability, and the influence of storm surge timing on barotropic tide-surge propagation in a tide-dominant estuary using the Severn Estuary, south-west England, as an example. Model results show maximum surge elevation increases exponentially up-estuary and, for a range of surge timings consistently occurs on the flood tide. In the Severn Estuary, over a distance of 40 km from the most upstream tide gauge at Oldbury, the maximum surge elevation increases by 255%. Up-estuary locations experience short duration, high magnitude surge elevations and greater variability due to shallow-water effects and channel convergence. The results show that surge predictions from forecasting systems at tide gauge locations could under-predict the magnitude and duration of surge contribution to up-estuary water levels. Due to the large tidal range and dynamic nature of hyper-tidal estuaries, local forecasting systems should consider changes in surge elevation and shape with distance up-estuary from nearby tide gauge sites to minimize uncertainties in flood hazard assessment., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Salt marshes are valuable ecosystems that must trap sediments and accrete in order to counteract the deleterious effect of sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that the capacity of marshes to build up vertically depends on both autogenous and exogenous processes including ecogeomorphic feedbacks and sediment supply from in‐land and coastal ocean. There have been numerous efforts to quantify the role played by the sediments coming from marsh edge erosion on the resistance of salt marshes to sea level rise. However, the majority of existing studies investigating the interplay between lateral and vertical dynamics use simplified modeling approaches, and they do not consider that marsh retreat can affect the regional‐scale hydrodynamics and sediment retention in back‐barrier basins. In this study, we evaluated the fate of the sediments originating from marsh lateral loss by using high‐resolution numerical model simulations of Jamaica Bay, a small lagoonal estuary located in New York City. Our findings show that up to 42% of the sediment released during marsh edge erosion deposits on the shallow areas of the basin and over the vegetated marsh platforms, contributing positively to the sediment budget of the remaining salt marshes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that with the present‐day sediment supply from the ocean, the system cannot keep pace with sea level rise even accounting for the sediment liberated in the bay through marsh degradation. Our study highlights the relevance of multiple sediment sources for the maintenance of the marsh complex. Key Points: The sediment eroded from marsh edges helps to build the remaining marshesMarsh erosion has a twofold effect: more sediment available for the remaining marshes but decrease in the trapping capacity of the lagoonManagement actions should consider the effects associated with wetland edge erosion at basin scale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Sediments are unable to penetrate farther inside the marshes because of the limited water depths and velocities on the marsh platforms. • Trapping capacity of sediment in different intertidal subdomains decreases exponentially with R, the ratio between advection length and the typical spatial length of channels and tidal flats. • The feedback between SLR and sediment trapping has a twofold effect: an increase in salt marsh resilience in the short term but a net loss of sediment in the long term that might jeopardize the entire intertidal system. Abstract Deposition of fine sediments on a marsh platform favors accretion that counteracts Sea Level Rise. However, it is difficult to assess the sediment trapping capacity of a marsh given the heterogeneity of sediment sources and the geometric complexity of the system, with a network of dendritic and meandering creeks dissecting the intertidal area. Here we use a numerical model to study the sediment trapping capacity of a marsh-dominated estuary, Plum Island Sound, USA, and its variations across the landscape. The results highlight the importance of the timing between sediment inputs and tidal phase and show that sediment discharged from tidal rivers deposit within the rivers themselves or in adjacent marshes. Most sediment is deposited in shallow tidal flats and channels and is unable to penetrate farther inside the marshes because of the limited water depths and velocities on the marsh platform. Trapping capacity of sediment in different intertidal subdomains decreases logarithmically with the ratio between advection length and the typical length of channels and tidal flats. Moreover, sediment deposition on the marsh decreases exponentially with distance from the channels and marsh edge. This decay rate is a function of settling velocity and the maximum value of water depth and velocity on the marsh platform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A process-based numerical model is applied to investigate sediment transport dynamics and sediment budget in tide-dominated estuaries under different salt marsh erosion scenarios. Using a typical funnel-shaped estuary (Ribble Estuary, UK) as a study site, it is found that the remobilization of sediments within the estuary is increased as a result of the tidal inundation of the eroded salt marsh. The landward export of the finest sediment is also intensified. The relationship between salt marsh erosion and net landward export of sediments has been found to be non-linear—with the first 30% salt marsh erosion causing most of the predicted export. The presence of vegetation also influences the sediment budget. Results suggest that vegetation reduces the amount of sediment being transported upstream. Again, the trapping effect of salt marsh in terms of plant density is non-linear. Whilst a vegetated surface with a stem density of 64 plants/m2 decreased the net landward export of very fine sand by around 50%, a further increase in stem density from 64 to 512 plants/m2 had a relatively small effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractIn the original article, Xiaorong Li’s given and family names were transposed. It is correct as shown here. The original article has been corrected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Wave overtopping and subsequent coastal flood hazard is strongly controlled by wind and water levels, and is especially critical in hyper-tidal estuaries where even small changes in wave heights can be catastrophic if they are concurrent with high spring tide. Wave hazard in estuaries is largely attributed to high amplitude shorter period, locally generated wind waves; while low amplitude longer period waves rarely impact low-lying coastal zones up-estuary. Here, the effect of wind and wave properties on up-estuary wave propagation and the sensitivity of significant wave height are investigated numerically along the shoreline of the Severn Estuary, southwest England, as an example. Representative values for wind speed and direction, wave height, period and direction are used to identify key combinations of factors that define the wave hazard generation. High amplitude, short period wind waves are sensitive to opposing winds, with a steepening effect that varies along the estuary shoreline, highlighting the effect of estuarine geometry on wave hazard. Low amplitude, long period wind waves respond with maximum variability in significant wave height to strong winds resulting in their propagation further up-estuary. Our results advance current understanding of the compound interaction between wind and waves, and identify critical conditions maximizing the hazard and hazard variability along the shoreline. The outcomes from this research can help to avoid economic losses from operational downtime in ports and harbors, inform sustainable coastal sea defense design and understand how wave hazard may vary under future climate due to changing storm tracks. Results can also be applied to the design of coastal infrastructure and facilitation of emergency response planning. Highlights • Key combinations of wind wave factors simulated to define wave hazard. • Opposing winds steepen high amplitude waves to increase overtopping hazard. • Stronger winds amplify low amplitude waves and facilitate propagation up-estuary. • Results can inform sea defense design and reduce losses from operational downtime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wave overtopping and subsequent coastal flood hazard is strongly controlled by wind and water levels, and is especially critical in hyper-tidal estuaries where even small changes in wave heights can be catastrophic if they are concurrent with high spring tide. Wave overtopping imposes serious hazard in heavily populated and industrialized hyper-tidal estuaries, where infrastructure, transport networks and natural resources may be located. Wave hazard in estuaries is largely attributed to high amplitude shorter period, locally generated wind waves; while low amplitude longer period waves rarely impact low-lying coastal zones up-estuary. The effect of wind and wave properties on up-estuary wave propagation and the sensitivity of significant wave height are investigated numerically along the shoreline of the Severn Estuary, southwest England, as an example of hyper-tidal estuaries worldwide. Delft3D-WAVE is used to simulate significant wave height with representative values for wind speed and direction, wave height, period and direction used to identify key combinations of factors that define the wave hazard generation in the Severn Estuary. The model confirms high amplitude, short period wind waves are sensitive to opposing winds, with a steepening effect that varies along the estuary shoreline, highlighting the effect of estuarine geometry on wave hazard. Low amplitude, long period wind waves respond with greatest variability in significant wave height to strong winds resulting in their propagation further up-estuary. Our results advance current understanding of the compound interaction between wind and waves, and identify critical conditions maximizing the hazard and hazard variability along the shoreline. The outcomes from this research can help to avoid economic losses from operational downtime in ports and harbours, inform sustainable coastal sea defence design and understand how wave hazard may vary under future climate due to changing storm tracks. Results can also long-term coastal defence and management strategies, as sustainable coastal management requires confidence in the knowledge of any possible future changes to wave hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]