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Significance: Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States., Purpose: This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children., Methods: Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics., Results: The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger Asian American females had the highest eventual probability of onset, whereas older White males had the lowest. Model performance increased with older baseline age, with C statistics ranging from 0.83 at 6 years of age to 0.92 at 13 years., Conclusions: The probability of the onset of myopia can be estimated for children in the major racial/ethnic groups within the United States on a year-by-year and cumulative basis up to age 14 years based on a simple set of refractive error and demographic variables., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest Disclosure: The authors listed report a financial conflict of interest (KZ, DOM: Vyluma, Inc.). The sponsor provided financial support but had no role in the study design, conduct, analysis and interpretation, or writing of the report. The authors were responsible for preparation of this manuscript and the decision to submit this article for publication. Each of the authors had limited access to the study data and takes full responsibility for their presentation in this article., (Copyright © 2024 American Academy of Optometry.)

Purpose: To model juvenile-onset myopia progression as a function of race/ethnicity, age, sex, parental history of myopia, and time spent reading or in outdoor/sports activity., Methods: Subjects were 594 children in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study with at least three study visits: one visit with a spherical equivalent (SPHEQ) less myopic/more hyperopic than -0.75 diopter (D), the first visit with a SPHEQ of -0.75 D or more myopia (onset visit), and another after myopia onset. Myopia progression from the time of onset was modeled using cubic models as a function of age, race/ethnicity, and other covariates., Results: Younger children had faster progression of myopia; for example, the model-estimated 3-year progression in an Asian American child was -1.93 D when onset was at age 7 years compared with -1.43 D when onset was at age 10 years. Annual progression for girls was 0.093 D faster than for boys. Asian American children experienced statistically significantly faster myopia progression compared with Hispanic (estimated 3-year difference of -0.46 D), Black children (-0.88 D), and Native American children (-0.48 D), but with similar progression compared with White children (-0.19 D). Parental history of myopia, time spent reading, and time spent in outdoor/sports activity were not statistically significant factors in multivariate models., Conclusions: Younger age, female sex, and racial/ethnic group were the factors associated with faster myopic progression. This multivariate model can facilitate the planning of clinical trials for myopia control interventions by informing the prediction of myopia progression rates.

Purpose: We determined the correlation between sibling refractive errors adjusted for shared and unique environmental factors using data from the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study., Methods: Refractive error from subjects' last study visits was used to estimate the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between siblings. The correlation models used environmental factors (diopter-hours and outdoor/sports activity) assessed annually from parents by survey to adjust for shared and unique environmental exposures when estimating the heritability of refractive error (2*ICC)., Results: Data from 700 families contributed to the between-sibling correlation for spherical equivalent refractive error. The mean age of the children at the last visit was 13.3 ± 0.90 years. Siblings engaged in similar amounts of near and outdoor activities (correlations ranged from 0.40-0.76). The ICC for spherical equivalent, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, and site was 0.367 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.304, 0.420), with an estimated heritability of no more than 0.733. After controlling for these variables, and near and outdoor/sports activities, the resulting ICC was 0.364 (95% CI = 0.304, 0.420; estimated heritability no more than 0.728, 95% CI = 0.608, 0.850). The ICCs did not differ significantly between male-female and single sex pairs., Conclusions: Adjusting for shared family and unique, child-specific environmental factors only reduced the estimate of refractive error correlation between siblings by 0.5%. Consistent with a lack of association between myopia progression and either near work or outdoor/sports activity, substantial common environmental exposures had little effect on this correlation. Genetic effects appear to have the major role in determining the similarity of refractive error between siblings., (Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.)

Objective: To report the percentage of new cases of myopia in 4927 children aged 5 to 16 years who participated in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error Study between 1989 and 2009., Design: A multicenter, longitudinal, observational, volunteer study of refractive error and ocular development in children from 5 racial/ethnic groups in which the participants were children who were not myopic (right eye cycloplegic auto refraction of less myopia/more hyperopia than -0.75 diopters [D] in both principal meridians) at study entry. A new case was a diagnosis of myopia (right eye cycloplegic auto refraction of -0.75 D or more myopia in both principal meridians) after study entry., Results: Of the 4556 children entering the study who were not myopic, 749 (16.4%) received a diagnosis of myopia after study entry. Among these 749 children, the ages of the participants at diagnosis varied from 7 to 16 years, with the largest number diagnosed at age 11 years(136 participants [18.2%]). New cases of myopia occurred in 27.3% of Asians, 21.4% of Hispanics, 14.5% of Native Americans, 13.9% of African Americans, and 11% of whites. Female participants had more new cases than did male participants (18.5% vs 14.5%). Normal-birth weight children had more new cases than did low-birth weight children (16.9% vs 15.5%)., Conclusions: Sixteen percent of children enrolled in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error Study developed myopia during their school-aged years. The percentage increased yearly until age 11 years, after which it decreased. New cases of myopia varied by ethnic/racial group.

Purpose: The ethnically diverse Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study cohort provides a unique opportunity to explore associations among intraocular pressure (IOP), ethnicity, and refractive error while adjusting for potential confounding variables., Methods: Mixed linear models were used to examine the effect of age, refractive error (cycloplegic auto-refraction), ethnicity, sex, and measurement protocol on IOP (Tono-pen) in 3777 children, aged 6 to 14 years at their first CLEERE visit (1995-2009). Children who became myopic during follow-up were used to examine the relationship between time since myopia onset and IOP. Clinically meaningful differences in IOP were preset at >2 mm Hg., Results: IOP differed among refractive error categories with higher IOP in children with low/moderate myopia than those with high hyperopia (differences <1 mm Hg). There was a statistically significant relationship between age and IOP that depended on ethnicity (interaction p < 0.0001) and measurement protocol (interaction p < 0.0001). The relationship between sex and IOP depended on measurement protocol (interaction p = 0.0004). For children who became myopic during follow-up, the adjusted mean IOP showed a significant decline for only Asian (p = 0.024) and white children (p = 0.004). As with other statistically significant results, these changes in mean adjusted IOPs from 2 years before to 2 years after myopia onset were <2 mm Hg., Conclusions: Small but significant differences in IOP by refractive error category were found in this ethnically diverse cohort of children. Relationships between IOP and age, ethnicity, sex, and measurement protocol were complicated by significant interactions between these parameters. Longitudinal analysis of children before and after myopia onset showed changes in IOP over time that varied by ethnicity. Higher IOPs before and at myopia onset were not present in all ethnic groups, with differences before and after onset too small to suggest a role for IOP in the onset of myopia.