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A future bio-based economy envisions the transformation of the petrochemical industry into using biomass such as wood (waste) as a major resource. The early-stage evaluation of a biorefinery project requires the optimization of the lay-out of the supply chain considering the spatio-temporal variability of the availability of feedstock and the techno-economical characteristics of the biorefinery process. Therefore, the presented methodology was developed combining three models: (1) a forest management and planning tool providing a detailed prediction on the wood resource availability as well as the harvested feedstock quantity and cost with respect to location and time, (2) a techno-economic assessment model of the biorefinery process (e.g., species-specific conditions, capacity, CAPEX, OPEX), and (3) a strategic supply chain optimization model combining the insights of (1) and (2) into a spatio-temporal explicit supply chain analysis. The developed methodology has been evaluated through a case-study on the emerging reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) biorefining in the Flanders region (EU) and shows that the most economically interesting configuration is one large biorefinery with a yearly wood chip intake of 150 kton. The biorefinery location reflects the available feedstock distribution in Flanders and is suggested to be situated best in the most forested region. The proposed methodology proved to be dynamic and robust: (1) input data and technical calculations can easily be adapted or updated; (2) the methodology can be applied to a broad range of applications beyond the scope of the biorefinery, to different feedstock choices; (3) the impact of the biorefinery location on e.g. energy balance, CO 2 emissions, and financial balance can be assessed. [Display omitted] • Integration of resource availability, techno-economic analysis, supply chain design. • Supports designing new bio-based value chains at low Technology Readiness Level. • Case study on emerging reductive catalytic fractionation in Flanders. • Region features and time variations impact process feasibility and chain layout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new lignin-first biorefinery with a reductive catalytic fractionation process, which targets the valorization of the lignin and the carbohydrate fraction into higher value end-products, is currently being designed. To identify the various R&D drivers for projects with a low technology readiness level (TRL), we developed an integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) that directly integrates the results of lab studies with economic costs and benefits. Furthermore, different linkages are made to upstream wood availability and downstream demand to understand its fit into existing wood value chains. By making the relations across the wood value chain explicit within the integrated TEA, we find that the scale of the plant, the feedstock-specific output quantities, and output prices highly determine the economic feasibility. Furthermore, this detailed analysis reveals the importance of assessing different types of feedstock. If only virgin wood is available as feedstock, minimum capacity levels between 190 and 234 kilotons per year are needed for the investment to be profitable. Waste wood proves to be the most profitable feedstock with an NPV of M€ 59 and an IRR of 26%. Using only waste wood as feedstock makes the investment profitable at a lower capacity level of 80 kilotons per year and economic shocks can be absorbed. Based on these results we show that an integrated and detailed TEA is indispensable to define future development paths for early-stage, innovative technologies. Image 1 • Integrated TEA with multiple interlinkages within the wood-based value chain. • Use of a unique set of lab-based data for birch, poplar, pine and waste wood (type B). • Capacity level and feedstock type are crucial factors to reach profitability. • Waste wood (type B) is the most profitable feedstock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]