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Breast cancer is the most common neoplasm in the world among women. The age-specific incidences and onset ages vary widely between Asian and Western countries/regions. Invasive breast cancer cases among women from 1997 to 2011 were abstracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the trends. The cohort effect was prominent in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Thailand, possibly related to the timing of westernization. The risk of breast cancer initially rose with the birth cohorts in Hong Kong and India (both former British colonies), peaked, and then declined in recent birth cohorts. Unlike other Asian countries/regions, virtually no birth cohort effect was identified in the Philippines (a Spanish colony in 1565 and the first Asian country to adopt Western cultural aspects). Moreover, an at-most negligible birth cohort effect was identified for all ethnic groups (including Asian immigrants) in the United States. This global study identified birth cohort effects in most Asian countries/regions but virtually no impact in Western countries/regions. The timing of westernization was associated with the birth cohort effect.

Introduction: Dementia prevalence in older women is higher than that in men. The purpose of the present study was to investigate whether there is a female disadvantage in cognitive functioning at adult age and/or whether a female disadvantage develops with age. Methods: Data of 5,135 women and 4,756 men from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) and the Doetinchem Cohort Study (DCS) were used. In the LASA, memory, processing speed, fluid intelligence, and global cognitive function were measured every 3–4 years since 1992 in persons aged 55+ years for up to 23 years. In the DCS, memory, processing speed, cognitive flexibility, and global cognitive function were measured every 5 years since 1995 in persons aged 45+ years for up to 20 years. Sex differences in cognitive aging were analyzed using linear mixed models and also examined by the 10-year birth cohort or level of education. Results: Women had a better memory, processing speed, flexibility, and, in the DCS only, global cognitive function than men (p’s < 0.01). However, women showed up to 10% faster decline in these cognitive domains, except for flexibility, where women showed 9% slower decline. In the LASA, women scored poorer on fluid intelligence (p < 0.01), but their decline was 10% slower than that in men. Female advantage was larger in later born cohorts; adjustment for the educational level increased the female advantage. Conclusion: Women have better memory and processing speed than men at middle age. This female advantage becomes smaller with aging and has increased in more recent birth cohorts.

Objectives To analyze and compare the experience of climacteric symptoms and their associations with sociodemographic and health-related characteristics in two cohorts of Finnish women aged 52–56 years, born ten years apart and not now or previously on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT). Study design Nationwide population-based time-trend study with a large number of participants (n = 1986 + 1988). Main outcome measures The experience of climacteric symptoms was assessed by 12 commonly used menopause-related symptoms. Results Women aged 52–56 experienced more moderate or severe symptoms and fewer mild symptoms in 2010 than in 2000. Being unemployed or inactive was associated with more severe symptoms (P = 0.007), but employment status had no effect on the relative odds estimates. Conclusions The influence of the birth cohort and time-period effects as well as work-related factors on the experience of climacteric symptoms in women not now or previously on MHT needs further research, particularly since the change in the experience of symptoms found in this study occurred within only ten years.

Background The literature suggests depressive symptoms differ in a non-linear fashion across adulthood and are more commonly reported in women as compared to men. Whether these trends are observed across countries in population-based cohorts is unclear. Methods Cross-sectional observational study of approximately 138,000 women and men between the ages of 45 and 95 from three population-based cohorts representing Canadian, European, and American populations. Age, gender, educational attainment and annual income were assessed in each cohort. Depressive symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale in the US and Canadian cohorts, and by the EURO-D in the European cohort. Results Across all three cohorts, non-linear age trends and gender differences were observed in the report of depressive symptoms, independent from educational attainment and annual income effects. The non-linear age trends reflected a negative association between depressive symptoms and age during midlife and then a positive association in late life. Females reported greater depressive symptoms than males; however, an interaction between gender and age was also observed in the Canadian and European cohorts. Among Canadians, the gender differences were largest after age 70, whereas among Europeans, gender differences where largest among those approximately aged 60. Limitations Limitations include: 1) the cross-sectional nature of the study, resulting in age differences potentially reflecting cohort effects rather than a developmental process; and 2) the use of different depressive symptoms measures across cohorts. Conclusions Characterization of depressive symptoms over mid and late adulthood in women and men provides insights into potential focal points for intervention and allocation of resources.

Background Premature onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD) imposes a significant societal burden and challenges prevention efforts. Methods and Results Trends in the incidence of premature CVD (before age 55, 60, or 65 years, separate analysis for each threshold) were evaluated in 14 464 Framingham Heart Study participants over 7 decades of observation (1950–2019). The change in the incidence of premature CVD (per decade) in men and women was assessed using overdispersed Poisson regression (accounting for cohort effects), adjusting for age at entry and age at onset of premature CVD within each decade. CVD was defined as a composite of fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke or transient ischemic attack, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. There were 2223 first CVD events (832 in women) before age 65 years during 282 481 person‐years of observations (154 587 in women) between 1950 and 2019. The age‐adjusted CVD incidence before age 65 years decreased from 14.8 per 1000 person‐years (1950–1959) to 4.69 per 1000 person‐years (2010–2019) in men and from 7.23 per 1000 person‐years (1950–1959) to 1.73 per 1000 person‐years (2010–2019) in women. In adjusted analyses, the incidence of premature CVD decreased per decade in men (18.4% [95% CI, 12.0%–24.0%], for onset before age 55 years; 19.5% [95% CI, 12.0%–27.0%], for onset before age 60 years; 21.3% [95% CI, 16.0%–27.0%], for onset before age 65 years) and women (15.1% [95% CI, 7.0%–22.0%], for onset before age 55 years; 14.0% [95% CI, 6.0%–22.0%], for onset before age 60 years; 18.2% [95% CI, 12.0%–24.0%], for onset before age 65 years). The decline in premature CVD was accompanied by a reduction in smoking and increased use of lipid‐lowering treatments across the decades. Incidence of premature coronary heart disease decreased, whereas the contribution of stroke to premature CVD burden increased over time. Conclusions The incidence of premature CVD has decreased among White adults in the Framingham cohort over the past 70 years; the residual burden of premature stroke warrants further study. Additional studies of trends in premature CVD in more racially and geographically diverse populations are warranted to elucidate the generalizability of these findings.

Background Worldwide, cervical cancer is the second-most-common malignancy of the female reproductive system. Due to its large population, China accounted for 11.9% of cervical cancer deaths, and 12.3% of global cervical cancer DALYs in 2017. In 2009, China launched a nationwide screening program, yet mortality from cervical cancer has shown an upward trend in recent years. The aim of this study was to explore factors affecting cervical cancer mortality rates in China, and contribute to their future reduction. Methods In this descriptive study, a Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) algorithm were utilized. Data from the period 1989–2018 were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Database of WHO (1989–2000) and China Health Statistical Yearbook database (2002–2018). Results Our study found mortality from cervical cancer to have initially declined, but increase thereafter over the entire observation period in both rural and urban China. The influence of age, period and cohort effect on the mortality rate had statistical significance. The effect of age increased with years, becoming a contributing factor in women aged over 45 years countrywide. Conversely, the cohort effect became a protective factor for women born after 1938 in urban areas, and for women born after 1958 in rural areas. The period effect was relatively less impactful. Conclusions The study indicates that organized cervical screening projects facilitated the identification of potential patients, or patients with comorbidities. Correspondingly, mortality was found to increase with incidence, particularly among elderly women, indicating that newly diagnosed patients were at an advanced stage of cervical cancer, or were not receiving appropriate treatment. Therefore, the coverage of cervical cancer screening should be improved, and women’s health awareness promoted. Early diagnosis and treatment is critical to reduce the disease burden and improve outcomes.

Background Apparent associations between human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and age observed in cross-sectional studies could be misleading if cohort effects influence HPV detection. Methods Using data from 2003–2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we evaluated overall and 10-year birth cohort-specific cervicovaginal HPV prevalence estimates (any, high-risk [HR], and non-HR) by 3-year age group among 27 to 59-year-old women born in 1950–1979. Average percent changes (APC) in HPV prevalence by 3-year age were calculated. Results Overall, prevalence of any HPV declined from 49.9% in 27–29 year olds to 33.8% in 57–59 year olds (APC, −2.82% per 3-year age group; 95% confidence interval [CI], −4.02% to −1.60%) as did prevalence of HR-HPV (APC, −6.19%; 95% CI, −8.09% to −4.26%) and non–HR-HPV (APC, −2.00%; 95% CI, −3.48% to −.51%). By birth cohort, declines by age group were seen in prevalences of any HPV, HR-HPV, and non–HR-HPV for those born in the 1950s and 1970s and in any HPV and HR-HPV for those born in the 1960s (APC range, −14.08% to 0.06%). Conclusions Declines in HPV prevalence with age in these cross-sectional surveys cannot be explained by birth cohort differences alone, as associations were observed across all birth cohorts.

Objectives No previous study has analysed age-, period-, and cohort-related long-term trends in toothbrushing frequency among adults using a nationally representative data set. Our aim was to study age, period, and cohort effects on toothbrushing among 15- to 64-year-olds in Finland from 1978 to 2014. Methods Data were gathered by nationally representative random cross-sectional samples of 15- to 64-year-old Finns annually from 1978 to 2014, during which response rates decreased from 84% to 53%. The final pooled sample size was 119,665. An age-period-cohort model was used to separate the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in men's and women's toothbrushing frequency. Results From 1978 to 2014, the proportion of respondents who brushed at least twice a day or once a day increased from 42% to 66% and from 83% to 95%, respectively. The proportion of respondents who brushed at least twice a day increased from 27% to 53% among men and from 60% to 75% among women. Increases in at least once-a-day toothbrushing were smaller in both sexes, and in women the increase was minimal over the study years. The increase in toothbrushing frequency occurred particularly among those older than 40 years of age. In men, toothbrushing frequency increased steadily cohort by cohort (cohort effect) and within a single cohort as men in the cohort got older (longitudinal age trend). Instead, in women the cohort effect and longitudinal age trend in toothbrushing were smaller at both frequency thresholds. Conclusions On the population level, favourable changes in toothbrushing habits occurred among adult Finns from 1978 to 2014, especially in men.

BackgroundThyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017.MethodsWe examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence.ResultsThe ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

Background. As the second most common gynecologic cancer worldwide, cervical cancer has led to morbidity and mortality in thousands of women. Our study is aimed at comparing the long-term trends of mortality rates for cervical cancer in three high-income countries—Canada, Korea, and Italy—and analyzing the detached effects of chronological age, time period, and birth cohort by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods. Joinpoint regression was used in this study, and the age-period-cohort model combined with the intrinsic estimator method was also applied to estimate the detached effect of each age, time period, and birth cohort on cervical cancer mortality. Results. For the overall trends of ASMRs for cervical cancer, the rates for Canada and Italy generally decreased during the whole observation periods while the rate for Korea exhibited a significant increase from 1986 to 2003. The APC analysis suggested that the cancer mortality risks consistently increased with age in the age groups including women aged 20 to 50 years in all areas. The period effect exhibited a general upward trend for both Korea and Italy, while a decreased trend was observed for Canada during the whole observation period. The mortality risk generally decreased with birth cohort, except there was a slight increase for younger generations in the three countries. Conclusions. Our study shows that the overall decrease in the cohort effect may have contributed to the reduced mortality rate for Italy and Canada, and the increased period effects and cohort effect in younger generations may have led to the increase in cancer mortality rate for Korea.

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.

Research has often found a U- or J-shaped association between parity and mortality. Many researchers have suggested repeated pregnancy, childbirth, and lactation taxes the body beyond a certain parity level. Available research has concentrated on populations with controlled fertility or historic populations. Ireland presents an opportunity to explore these associations in a modern sample with high fertility. We use data from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) to test whether parity is associated with mortality in women aged 50 years or over (n = 4177). We use Cox proportional hazards models to model survival and adjust for demographics and early life circumstances. We test whether a number of health characteristics mediate these effects. Models were also stratified by birth cohort to test possible cohort effects. Higher parity was associated with lower risk of mortality, even after adjustment for early life and socioeconomic circumstances. This effect was not mediated by current health characteristics. The effects were largely driven by those born between 1931 and 1950. Increasing parity is associated with decreasing mortality risk in this sample. The effects of parity could not be explained through any of the observed health characteristics. These findings are in contrast to much of the literature on this question in similar populations. Lack of fertility control in Ireland may have “selected” healthier women into high parity. Social explanations for these associations should be further explored.

BACKGROUND Children belonging to the same birth cohort (i.e., born in the same year) experience shared exposure to a common obesity-related milieu during the critical early years of development-e.g., secular beliefs and feeding practices, adverse chemical exposures, food access and nutrition assistance policies-that set the stage for a shared trajectory of obesity as they mature. Fundamental cause theory suggests that inequitable distribution of recent efforts to stem the rise in child obesity may exacerbate cohort-based disparities over time. METHODS Data were from electronic health records spanning 2007-2016 linked to birth records for children ages 2-19 years. We used hierarchical age-period-cohort models to investigate cohort effects on disparities in obesity related to maternal education. We hypothesized that maternal education-based disparities in prevalence of obesity would be larger among more recent birth cohorts. RESULTS Sex-stratified models adjusted for race/ethnicity showed substantial obesity disparities by maternal education that were evident even at young ages: prevalence among children with maternal education

Objectives This study conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of trends in healthy lifestyle behaviors in Japan. Methods We used National Health and Nutrition Survey data on salt intake and prevalence of smoking, drinking, and physical activity between 1995 and 2018 in Japan. Age groups were defined from 20 years to 69 years old in 10-year increments. Cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift, and cohorts born in 1926-1935 (first cohort) until 1989-1998 (last cohort) were examined. We conducted a Bayesian APC analysis, calculating estimated values for each behavior by age group, period, and cohort. Results Estimated salt intake decreased from cohorts born in the 1930s to the 1960s, but increased thereafter in both genders, and the magnitude of increase was larger for men. Estimated smoking prevalence increased in the cohorts starting from the 1930s for men and the 1940s for women, and then decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1970s for both genders. Although estimated drinking prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in approximately 1960 for men, for women it increased until the cohorts born in approximately 1970. Estimated physical activity prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1940s in both genders, but the magnitude of decrease was larger for women. Conclusions Trends in cohort effects differed by gender, which might be related to changes in the social environment for women. Improvements in dietary and exercise habits are required in more recently born cohorts of both genders.

AimsTo analyse the independent effects of age, period and cohort on estimated daily alcohol consumption in Estonia.MethodsThis study used data from nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys from 1996 to 2018 and included 11,717 men and 16,513 women aged 16–64 years in total. The dependent variables were consumption of total alcohol and consumption by types of beverages (beer, wine and strong liquor) presented as average daily consumption in grams of absolute alcohol. Mixed-effects negative binomial models stratified by sex were used for age–period–cohort analysis.ResultsAlcohol consumption was highest at ages 20–29 years for both men and women and declined in older ages. Significant period effects were found indicating that total alcohol consumption and consumption of different types of beverages had increased significantly since the 1990s for both men and women. Cohort trends differed for men and women. Men born in the 1990–2000s had significantly lower daily consumption compared to earlier cohorts, whereas the opposite was found for women.ConclusionWhile age-related patterns of alcohol consumption are aligned with life course stages, alcohol use has increased over the study period. Although the total daily consumption among men is nearly four times higher than among women, the cohort trends suggest convergence of alcohol consumption patterns for men and women.

Objective To estimate Age-Period-Cohort effects on colorectal, colon and rectal cancer incidence rates in Latin American countries covered by high quality population-based cancer registries. Methods A trend study was performed using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Age-Period-Cohort effects were estimated by Poisson regression for individuals aged between 20 and 79 years with colorectal, colon and rectal cancers informed by Population-Based Cancer Registries from 1983 to 2012 in Cali (Colombia); from 1983 to 2007 in Costa Rica; and from 1988 to 2012 for both Goiânia (Brazil) and Quito (Ecuador). Goodness of fit model was tested using the deviance of the models. Results Age effect was statistically significant for both sexes in all Population-Based Cancer Registries areas and the curves slope reached peaks in the older age groups. There were cohort effects on the incidence rates for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers in all Population-Based Cancer Registries areas, except for women in Quito. Regarding the period effect, an increased ratio rate was observed in men (1.26, 95%CI 1.17 to 1.35) and women (1.23, 95%CI, 1.15 to 1.32) in Goiânia, between 2003 and 2007. Conclusions In Latin America, age effect was observed on incidence rates for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers. Besides, birth cohort effect was identified for recent cohorts in both genders for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers in Cali and Goiânia, and cohort effect for colorectal and colon cancers in both genders in Costa Rica; while in Quito a cohort effect was only observed for rectal cancer among men. Period effect was observed in Goiânia with increased ratio rate in 2003-2007. .

This study involved an age-period-cohort analysis of the consultation rate and prevalence of dyslipidemia in Japan, based on Patient Survey data from 1999 to 2017 and open data of national database of health insurance claims and specific health checkups in Japan from 2013 to 2016. Our results showed that the consultation rates were lower than the prevalence, regardless of age, year, and sex, and particularly among middle-aged and male respondents. Additionally, both the consultation rate and prevalence increased with increasing age to a greater extent among women than men, and the degree of increase in the consultation rate was larger than that in prevalence among women. Furthermore, although the cohort effect on prevalence began to decrease among men in cohorts born in approximately 1960, the effect decreased among women in cohorts born between the 1930s and 1960s and exhibited an increasing trend thereafter.

Background Statistical data on the burden and relevant risk factors of lung cancer are valuable for policy‐making. This study aimed to compare the mortality of lung cancer attributable to smoking stratified by sex and age among adults in China and the United States (US). Methods We extracted age‐standardized mortality rates of lung cancer during 1990‐2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age‐period‐cohort analysis to estimate time trend of lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking. Results During 1990‐2017, the age‐standardized mortality rate of lung cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in the US for both sexes. The mortality attributable to smoking in China showed a generally increasing trend, while a continuous decrease was observed in the US. The age‐period‐cohort analysis showed a similar trend of age effect among adults between China and the US: the mortality substantially increased from the 30‐34 to 80‐84 age group and subsequently decreased in the 90‐94 age group. However, the period effect rapidly increased in Chinese adults during 1990‐2017, while it tended to be stable in the US although it was still slightly increasing in women. The cohort effect generally peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902‐1906 in the two countries. Conclusions During 1990‐2017, the lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking and the period effect are generally increasing in Chinese adults; the mortality attributable to smoking is decreasing in the US adults, but the period effect tends to be stable. The rapid aging and prevalence of smoking may intensify the increasing mortality of lung cancer in China.

Background. This study aims at investigating differences in oral cancer (OC) incidence trends between two populations in Taiwan and Thailand. Methods. We used the population-based cancer registry data from Taiwan (1979-2016) and Khon Kaen (KK), Thailand (1985-2016). We performed joinpoint analyses to detect the trend change points for the OC incidence and to quantify the time trends in both sexes and regions. Age-period-cohort curves were plotted to explain the incidence trends. Results. In Taiwan, the estimated annual increases in OC were approximately 6.0% in males, although the increase slowed after 2009, and 2.6% in females. In KK, the OC incidence steadily decreased by -2.5% per year in females, but there was no obvious change in males. A strong period effect observed in those aged 45-69 years in Taiwanese males resulted in a peak incidence in the middle age group. Decreased period and cohort effects were observed in females in KK. Conclusions. Taiwanese males are the predominant sex affected by OC in Taiwan, and the trend has decelerated since 2009. Age, period, and cohort effects were different between males and females in the two regions.

BackgroundEating disorders (ED) have increasingly become a global topic of concern for public health. A better understanding of ED incidence is a basic requirement for improving its management. However, the temporal trend of ED incidence in China is still unknown.MethodsThe incidence rates of ED from 1990 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database according to the following: subtype, i.e. anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN); sex; and age group. The average annual percent changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age–period–cohort model, respectively.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2017, age-standardized incidence rates of ED continued to increase in males and females, and this variation trend was observed in AN and BN. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates increased in all age groups. Adolescents had the highest risk of developing ED, followed by young adults. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for ED incidence. Period effects showed that the risk of developing ED continuously increased with increasing time periods in BN, but not in ED and AN. Concerning the cohort effects, people born after the 1990s presented a higher risk of ED, though they presented a lower risk of BN as compared to the whole cohort.ConclusionsED incidence rates continue to increase in China, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Further etiological studies are needed to explain these increases and to facilitate the early identification of high-risk individuals.

Background Uncontrolled studies have reported associations between later Parkinson's disease onset in women and a history of giving birth, with age at onset delayed by nearly 3 years per child. We tested this association in two independent data sets, but, as a control to test for nonbiological explanations, also included men with PD. Methods We analyzed valid cases from the Parkinson's Progressive Markers Initiative incident sample (145 women, 276 men) and a prevalent sample surveyed by the New Zealand Brain Research Institute (210 women, 394 men). Results The association was present in both women and men in the Parkinson's Progressive Markers Initiative study, and absent in both in the New Zealand Brain Research Institute study. This is consistent with generational differences common to men and women, which confound with age at onset in incident-dominant samples. Conclusions Despite being replicable in certain circumstances, associations between childbirth and later PD onset are an artifact of generational cohort differences. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

To analyse the age, period and cohort effects on the mean body mass index (BMI) and obesity over the past two decades in Estonia. Study used data from nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys on 11,547 men and 16,298 women from 1996 to 2018. The independent effects of age, period and cohort on predicted mean BMI and probability of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) were modelled using hierarchical age–period–cohort analysis. Curvilinear association between age and mean BMI was found for men, whereas the increase in mean BMI was almost linear for women. The predicted mean BMI for 40-year-old men had increased by 6% and probability of obesity by 1.8 times over 1996–2018; the period effects were slightly smaller for women. Men from the 1970s birth cohort had higher mean BMI compared to the average, whereas no significant cohort effects were found for obesity outcome. Population-level BMI changes in Estonia during 1996–2018 were mostly driven by period rather than cohort-specific changes.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) incidence rates have been increasing in many countries, predominantly due to overdiagnosis. It is, however, not yet clear whether a true increase in exposure to risk factors might have also contributed to the TC epidemic. We assessed the TC mortality trends, which should not be affected by overdiagnosis, to disentangle the specific contribution of period and cohort effects. Methods: We analyzed long-term mortality data in 24 countries from 5 continents using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Nonidentifiability of the APC models was circumvented by integrating evidence of a consistent relationship between age and TC mortality, allowing to estimate period and cohort linear effects. Results: Substantial heterogeneity existed in the historical TC mortality rates across countries, but long-term rates declined over time in most of the countries, converging around a value of 0.5/100,000. The shape of the age-specific curves was consistently similar across countries and periods, resembling straight lines on the log-log scale, with the slopes ranging between 4.0 and 6.0. Both period and cohort effects showed long-term declines in most countries for both genders. In some countries, such as the United States, Canada, and Australia, substantial long-term declines by period were visible until the 1980s and 1990s, but then stabilized or increased slightly. Declining cohort effects were also seen in almost all countries, and were particularly pronounced in women from Switzerland, whereas stable cohort effects were recorded in South Africa. Although there were some indications of possible increasing risks of deaths among the youngest generations in some countries for both men and women, changes are too recent to be treated as unequivocal and estimates suffered from large statistical variability due to small numbers of deaths. Conclusions: Global long-term declines in TC mortality have been accompanied by downward trends in both period and cohort effects. Our results suggest lack of evidence of a possible major contribution of "real" risk factors in TC mortality, and indirectly confirm the main role of overdiagnosis in the epidemic of TC incidence.

Objectives This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. Results The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. Conclusions The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.

Background and aims Uruguay and Chile have the highest levels of marijuana use in Latin America, and have experienced consistent increases during the last two decades. We aim to calculate separate age-period-cohort (APC) effects for past-year marijuana use in Uruguay and Chile, which have similar epidemiologica, and demographic profiles but diverging paths in cannabis regulation. Design APC study in which period and cohort effects were estimated as first derivative deviations from their linear age trend, separately by country and gender. Setting Uruguay and Chile. Participants General population between 15 and 64 years. Measurements Past-year marijuana use from household surveys with five repeated cross-sections between 2001 and 2018 in Uruguay (median n = 4616) and 13 between 1994 and 2018 in Chile (median n = 15 895). Findings Marijuana use prevalence in both countries peaked at 20-24 years of age and increased consistently across calendar years. Period effects were strong and positive, indicating that increases in use were evident across age groups. Relative to 2006 (reference year), Chilean period effects were approximately 48% lower in 1994 and approximately four times higher in 2018; in Uruguay, these effects were approximately 56% lower in 2001 and almost quadrupled in 2018. We observed non-linear cohort effects in Chile and similar patterns in Uruguay for the overall sample and women. In both countries, marijuana use increased for cohorts born between the mid-1970s and early 1990s, even in the context of rising period effects. Prevalence was consistently larger for men, but period increases were stronger in women. Conclusions Age-period-cohort effects on past-year marijuana use appear to have been similar in Chile and Uruguay, decreasing with age and increasing over time at heterogeneous growth rates depending on gender and cohort. Current levels of marijuana use, including age and gender disparities, seem to be associated with recent common historical events in these two countries.

Members of birth cohorts who were alive in 1918 and survived the influenza pandemic were likely to have been "primed" for heart disease in later life. We examine the hypothesis that the twentieth-century heart disease epidemic was a cohort effect reflecting the changing susceptibility composition of the population.We estimated heart disease death rates by single years of age for cohorts born in 1860-1949. We prepared age-specific rates for calendar years 1900-2016, as well as age-standardized cohort and calendar year rates.Males born in 1880-1919 contributed 90 per cent to 100 per cent of all heart disease deaths among males aged 40-64 from 1940 to 1959, when the heart disease epidemic was at its peak. There was no heart disease epidemic among females aged 40-64. Death from heart disease in females tends to occur at older ages.Cigarette smoking, unemployment, and other factors may have played a role in the heart disease epidemic in men and would have interacted with injury from influenza, but our results suggest that having been alive at the time of the 1918 influenza pandemic probably played an important role.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Objective: To obtain updated robust data on a age-specific prevalence of hearing loss in Norway and determine whether more recent birth cohorts have better hearing compared with earlier birth cohorts. Design: Cross-sectional analyzes of Norwegian representative demographic and audiometric data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)—HUNT2 Hearing (1996–1998) and HUNT4 Hearing (2017–2019), with the following distribution: HUNT2 Hearing (N=50,277, 53% women, aged 20 to 101 years, mean = 50.1, standard deviation = 16.9); HUNT4 Hearing (N=28,339, 56% women, aged 19 to 100 years, mean = 53.2, standard deviation = 16.9). Pure-tone hearing thresholds were estimated using linear and quantile regressions with age and cohort as explanatory variables. Prevalences were estimated using logistic regression models for different severities of hearing loss averaged over 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz in the better ear (BE PTA4). We also estimated prevalences at the population-level of Norway in 1997 and 2018. Results: Disabling hearing loss (BE PTA4 ≥ 35 dB) was less prevalent in the more recent born cohort at all ages in both men and women (p < 0.0001), with the largest absolute decrease at age 75 in men and at age 85 in women. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of disabling hearing loss was 7.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.5 to 7.9) and 5.3% (95% CI 5.0 to 5.5) in HUNT2 and HUNT4, respectively. Hearing thresholds were better in the more recent born cohorts at all frequencies for both men and women (p < 0.0001), with the largest improvement at high frequencies in more recent born 60- to 70-year old men (10 to 11 dB at 3 to 4 kHz), and at low frequencies among the oldest. Conclusions: The age- and sex-specific prevalence of hearing impairment has decreased in Norway from 1996–1998 to 2017–2019.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Low whole-grain intake is found to be one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease development and progression. In this study, we focused on exploring the long-term trends of low whole-grain intake attributed to cardiovascular disease mortality in China during 1990–2019 and relative gender differences. Study data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We used the age-period-cohort model to estimate the adjusted effect of age, period, and cohorts. Annual and average annual percentage changes were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis. We observed an increasing trend with a net drift of 1.208% for males and 0.483% for males per year. The longitudinal age curve suggested that the attributed rate increased for both genders. Period and cohort effects all suggested that the risk for males showed an increased trend that was higher than that of females. Our findings suggest that males and senior-aged people were at a higher risk of cardiovascular disease mortality attributed to low whole-grain intake. Effective strategies are needed to enhance people’s health consciousness, and increasing whole-grain intake may achieve a better preventive effect for cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION: Cancers are the second main cause of morbidity worldwide, but robust information on lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers in Brazil is lacking. This study aimed to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality caused by lip, oral cavity, and pharynx cancers and age-period-cohort effects in the Brazilian population of 30 years of age and over, in the period of 1990 to 2019. METHODS: A time series study of the incidence and mortality rates for oral cavity and pharynx cancer (“Lip and oral cavity cancer”, “Nasopharynx cancer”, and “Other pharynx cancer”) was conducted, with corrected data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants, for the global population, were gathered according to the individuals’ sex. The annual average percentage change (AAPC) was estimated, as was the age-period-cohort effects. RESULTS: The incidence and mortality rates were higher for men in the studied anatomical regions. The cancers tended to decrease for men, except for nasopharynx cancer, which increased in individuals of both sexes. Mortality tended to present a decline in most of the groups studied. For men and women, the age-period-cohort model presented a better adjustment for both incidence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and mortality caused by the main head and neck cancers showed a tendency to decline over the past 30 years in Brazil, except for nasopharynx cancer, which showed an increase in incidence and mortality in some segments of the population. Higher rates were found for lip and oral cavity cancers in men.

To analyze the cervix cancer mortality in Colombia, based on age, period and cohort effects.The mortality and population data were taken from the official databases of the National Administrative Department of Statistics, DANE. Five models were adjusted, the significance of the effects was obtained by comparing them through the likelihood ratio test.The age-adjusted mortality rate, in deaths was 15.09/100,000 woman, at 1985-1989 period, and 10.21 at 2010-2014 period. The annual percentage average change was -1.45% (95% CI: -1.57% to -1.34%). Age, period and cohort effects were found.Demographic factors could explain the behavior of cervical cancer mortality in Colombia, as well as the establishment of public health measures in the last two decades.Analizar las tendencias de la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Colombia, teniendo en cuenta los efectos de edad, periodo y cohorte.Los datos de mortalidad y de población se tomaron de las bases oficiales del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas, DANE. Se ajustaron cinco modelos, la significancia de los efectos se obtuvo comparándolos a través de la prueba de razón de verosimilitud.La tasa de mortalidad ajustada por edad, en muertes fue de 15.09/100,000 mujeres, para el periodo 1985-1989 y 10.21 para el periodo 2010-2014. El cambio promedio porcentual anual fue de -1.45% (IC 95%: -1.57% a -1.34%). Se encontraron efectos de edad, periodo y cohorte.Los factores demográficos podrían explicar el comportamiento de la mortalidad por cáncer de cuello uterino en Colombia, al igual que la instauración de medidas de salud pública en las dos últimas décadas.

Adolescent internalizing symptoms have increased since 2010, whereas adequate sleep has declined for several decades. It remains unclear how self-reported sleep attainment has affected internalizing-symptoms trends. Using 1991–2019 data from the Monitoring the Future Study (n ~ 390,000), we estimated age-period-cohort effects in adolescent internalizing symptoms (e.g., loneliness, self-esteem, self-derogation, depressive affect) and the association with yearly prevalence of a survey-assessed, self-reported measure of attaining ≥7 hours of sleep most nights. We focused our main analysis on loneliness and used median odds ratios to measure variance in loneliness associated with period differences. We observed limited signals for cohort effects and modeled only period effects. The feeling of loneliness increased by 0.83% per year; adolescents in 2019 had 0.68 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.87) increased log odds of loneliness compared with the mean, which was consistent by race/ethnicity and parental education. Girls experienced steeper increases in loneliness than boys (P

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system. An increase in MS incidence over time is reported in several regions of the world. We aimed to describe the evolution of the annual MS incidence in the Lorraine region, France, from 1996 to 2015 and to analyze potential components of a possible change by a temporal effect of age at MS onset, MS onset period, and birth cohort, overall and for each sex. Cases were identified from ReLSEP, a population-based registry of MS cases living in Lorraine, northeastern France, with MS onset between 1996 and 2015. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to describe trends in MS incidence. Annual age- and sex-standardized incidences were relatively stable: 6.76/100 000 population (95%CI [5.76–7.91]) in 1996 and 6.78/100 000 (95%CI [5.72–7.97]) in 2015. The incidence ratio between women and men was 2.4. For all time periods, the peak incidence occurred between ages 25 and 35 years. Age-period–adjusted cohort and age-cohort–adjusted period analyses did not reveal a period or cohort effect. The incidence of MS remained stable over the study period in Lorraine, and we could not identify any particular effect of disease onset period or birth period on this evolution.

Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world’s most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements. Resumo: Embora São Paulo seja a cidade mais populosa do Brasil, que é um dos países mais violentos do mundo, o município vem apresentando uma redução significativa na taxa de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH). O estudo buscou estimar os efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos na tendência da mortalidade por homicídio de acordo com sexo na cidade de São Paulo, entre 1996 e 2015. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com dados sobre óbitos por homicídio em ambos os sexos, em todas as faixas etárias, no local e período mencionados acima. Foram ajustados modelos de Poisson para cada sexo, para estimar os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. Foram registrados 61.833 óbitos por homicídio em homens e 5.109 em mulheres. Independentemente do período, a TMH mais alta ocorreu na faixa etária de 20-24 anos. As TMH mais altas foram observadas em indivíduos que nasceram nas décadas de 1970 e 1980. O melhor ajuste para os dados foi como o modelo completo, com os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. O risco e óbitos por homicídio diminuiu ao longo dos anos, com a menor intensidade nos últimos cinco anos (2011-2015), tanto em homens (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49) quanto em mulheres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Foi observada uma redução no risco de homicídio, independente de sexo ou faixa etária, como também, nas coortes mais recentes. Entretanto, a intensidade dessas reduções tem diminuído ao longo do tempo, sugerindo que as políticas públicas adotadas têm potencial limitado para manter os avanços alcançados. Resumen: A pesar de que São Paulo es la cuidad más poblada en Brasil, uno de los países más violentos del mundo, ha estado mostrando una significativa reducción en su tasa de mortalidad por homicidios (TMH). Este estudio se propone estimar los efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento sobre la tendencia de la mortalidad por homicidio, según sexo, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, de 1996 a 2015. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos sobre las muertes por homicidio en ambos sexos, en todos los grupos de edad, en el lugar y período mencionado previamente. Con el fin de estimar los efectos de la edad-período-cohorte, se ajustaron modelos Poisson para ambos sexos. Se registraron un total de 61.833 muertes por homicidio entre hombres y 5.109 entre mujeres. Independientemente del período, la TMH más alta se produjo en la franja de edad 20-24. Unas TMH más altas se observaron en quienes habían nacido en los 1970 y los 1980. El modelo completo, con los efectos edad-período-cohorte, fue la mejor manera de ajustar los datos. El riesgo de muerte por homicidio se redujo a lo largo de los períodos, con una intensidad más baja en los últimos cinco años (2011-2015), para tanto hombres (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49), como mujeres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Se observó una reducción en el riesgo de homicidio, independientemente del sexo o franja de edad, así como en las cohortes recientes. No obstante, la intensidad de tales reducciones ha estado decreciendo a lo largo del tiempo, lo que sugiere que las políticas públicas adoptadas tienen un potencial limitado para mantener estos logros.

Although the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) caused one of the worst epidemics since the late 20th century, China and the U.S. has made substantial progress in tackling its HIV and AIDS epidemic. However, the trends of HIV and AIDS incidence remain unclear in both countries. Therefore, this study aimed to highlight the long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender in China and the U.S. population. It may helpful to assess the impact/role of designed policies in control of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. The data were retrieved from the Global burden of disease (GBD) database. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and join-point regression analysis were employed to estimate the age-period-cohort effect and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) on HIV incidence. Between 1994 and 2019, we observed an oscillating trend of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China and an increasing ASIR trend in the U.S. Despite the period effect in China declined for both genders after peaked in 2004, the age effect in China grew among the young (from 15-19 to 25-29) and the old age groups (from 65-69 to 75-79). Likewise, the cohort effect increased among those born in the early (from 1924-1928 to 1934-1938) and the latest birth groups (from 1979-1983 to 2004-2009). Whereas in the U.S., the age effect declined after it peaked in the 25-29 age group. People born in recent birth groups had a higher cohort effect than those born in early groups. In both countries, females were less infected by HIV than males. Therefore, besides effective strategies and awareness essential to protect the young age groups from HIV risk factors, the Chinese government should pay attention to the elderly who lacked family support and were exposed to HIV risk factors.

Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Objectives: To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on trends in cognitive function among the Chinese elderly, and to explore how gender gaps in cognitive function change with age, period, and cohort.Methods: This study used data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 1998 to 2018, and included 90,432 participants aged above 65 years old. The measurement of cognitive function was the score of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cross-classified random-effect models were used to investigate age, period, and cohort trends in cognitive function.Results: Mini-Mental State Examination scores decreased with age at an increasing rate. While the cohort effect was nearly stable, the period effect demonstrated a downward trend from 1998 to 2002 followed by a nearly flat line. Females were associated with lower MMSE scores than males. When age increased, the gender gaps in MMSE scores further increased. The period-based gender gaps in MMSE scores diverged throughout the 20 years, while the cohort-based gender disparities in MMSE scores converged with successive cohorts.Conclusions: Age, period, and cohort had different and independent effects on cognitive function among the Chinese elderly. The effect of age was stronger than that of period and cohort. Gender disparities in cognitive function increased with age and period, and decreased with successive cohorts.

BackgroundThe burden of type 2 diabetic kidney disease (DKD) continues to rise in China. We analyzed time trends in DKD mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019, made projections up to 2030, and examined the drivers of deaths from DKD.Methods and FindingsThe number of DKD deaths in China from 1990 to 2019 was obtained from the GBD 2019. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects in DKD mortality between 1990 and 2019. We calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), period, and cohort relative risks. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project future age-specific DKD death cases from 2020 to 2030. We used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes in DKD deaths to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes from 1990 to 2030. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate of DKD in China was relatively stable, but the absolute number of DKD deaths showed a noticeable increasing trend. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -0.75% (95% confidence interval, CI: -0.93 to -0.57) for males and -1.90% (95% CI, -2.19 to -1.62) for females. The age-specific annual percentage changes (local drifts) were below zero in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 except for males aged above 65 to 69 years, and for females aged above 70 to 74 years. The risk of DKD deaths increased exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis projects that there would be 88,803 deaths from DKD in 2030, increased by 224.2% from 1990. Despite a decrease in age-specific DKD death rates, the reduction would be entirely offset by population aging.ConclusionsAlthough China has made progress in reducing DKD deaths, demographic changes have entirely offset the progress. The burden of DKD deaths is likely to continue increasing. Our findings suggest that large-scale screening is imperative for DKD control and prevention, particularly for high-risk groups.

OBJECTIVE We evaluated the effect of optimizing metformin dosing on glycemia and body weight in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This was a prespecified analysis of 6,823 participants in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE) taking metformin as the sole glucose-lowering drug who completed a 4- to 14-week (mean ± SD 7.9 ± 2.4) run-in in which metformin was adjusted to 2,000 mg/day or a maximally tolerated lower dose. Participants had type 2 diabetes for RESULTS Adjusted for duration of run-in, the mean ± SD change in HbA1c was −0.65 ± 0.02% (−7.1 ± 0.2 mmol/mol) when the dose was increased by ≥1,000 mg/day, −0.48 ± 0.02% (−5.2 ± 0.2 mmol/mol) when the dose was unchanged, and −0.23 ± 0.07% (−2.5 ± 0.8 mmol/mol) when the dose was decreased (n = 2,169, 3,548, and 192, respectively). Higher HbA1c at entry predicted greater reduction in HbA1c (P < 0.001) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Weight loss adjusted for duration of run-in averaged 0.91 ± 0.05 kg in participants who increased metformin by ≥1,000 mg/day (n = 1,894). CONCLUSIONS Optimizing metformin to 2,000 mg/day or a maximally tolerated lower dose combined with emphasis on medication adherence and lifestyle can improve glycemia in type 2 diabetes and HbA1c values ≥6.8% (51 mmol/mol). These findings may help guide efforts to optimize metformin therapy among persons with type 2 diabetes and suboptimal glycemic control.

Background Immigrants in Germany exhibit higher levels of social disadvantage when compared to the non-immigrated population. Turkish-origin immigrants constitute an important immigrant group in Germany and show disparities in some health domains that are evident from birth onwards. Several studies have shown the mechanisms by which social disadvantage is biologically embedded to affect health over the lifespan. Relatively little, however, is still known about if and how the maternal social situation is transmitted to the next generation. This study therefore aims to analyse the effects of maternal socioeconomic status and migration status on stress-related maternal-placental-fetal (MPF) biological processes during pregnancy on infant birth and health outcomes. Methods This longitudinal cohort study of N = 144 child-mother dyads is located at two study sites in Germany and includes pregnant women of Turkish origin living in Germany as well as pregnant German women. During pregnancy, MPF stress biology markers from maternal blood and saliva samples, maternal socio-economic and migration-related information, medical risk variables and psychological well-being are assessed. After birth, infant anthropometric measures and developmental outcomes are assessed. The same measures will be assessed in and compared to Turkish pregnant women based on a collaboration with BABIP study in Istanbul. Discussion This is the first study on intergenerational transmission of health disparities in Germany with a focus on women of Turkish-origin. The study faces similar risks of bias as other birth cohorts do. The study has implemented various measures, e.g. culturally sensitive recruitment strategies, attempt to recruit and follow-up as many pregnant women as possible independent of their social or cultural background. Nevertheless, the response rate among lower-educated families is lower. The possibility to compare results with a cohort from Turkey is a strength of this study. However, starting at different times and with slightly different recruitment strategies and designs may result in cohort effects and may affect comparability of the sub-cohorts. Trial registration N.A. (Observational study, no clinical trial, no interventions on human participants).

Background There are gaps in the literature on service use (help-seeking and treatment utilization) for alcohol problems among those with alcohol use disorder (AUD). First, policy changes and cultural shifts (e.g., insurance) related to AUD have occurred over the last few decades, making it important to study generational differences. Second, multiple studies have found that females receive fewer services than males, and exploring whether these sex differences persist across generations can inform public health and research endeavors. The current study examined service use for alcohol problems among individuals with AUD. The aims were as follows: (i) to describe service use for alcohol problems; (ii) to assess generational differences (silent [b. 1928 to 1945], boomer [b. 1946 to 1964], generation X [b. 1965 to 1980], millennial [b. 1981 to 1996]) in help-seeking and treatment utilization; and (iii) to examine sex differences across generations. Methods Data were from affected family members of probands who participated in the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (N = 4,405). First, frequencies for service use variables were calculated across generations. Pearson chi-square and ANOVA were used to test for differences in rates and types of service use across generations, taking familial clustering into account. Next, Cox survival modeling was used to assess associations of generation and sex with time to first help-seeking and first treatment for AUD, and time from first onset of AUD to first help-seeking and first treatment. Interactions between generation and sex were tested within each Cox regression. Results Significant hazards were found in all 4 transitions. Overall, younger generations used services earlier than older generations, which translated into higher likelihoods of these behaviors. Regardless of generation, younger females were less likely to use services than males. Conclusions There are generational and sex differences in service use for alcohol problems among individuals with AUD. Policy and clinical implications are discussed.

Background Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug in the United States. More and more states legalized medical and recreational marijuana use. Adolescents and emerging adults are at high risk for marijuana use. This ecological study aims to examine historical trends in marijuana use among youth along with marijuana legalization. Method Data (n = 749,152) were from the 31-wave National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), 1979–2016. Current marijuana use, if use marijuana in the past 30 days, was used as outcome variable. Age was measured as the chronological age self-reported by the participants, period was the year when the survey was conducted, and cohort was estimated as period subtracted age. Rate of current marijuana use was decomposed into independent age, period and cohort effects using the hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) model. Results After controlling for age, cohort and other covariates, the estimated period effect indicated declines in marijuana use in 1979–1992 and 2001–2006, and increases in 1992–2001 and 2006–2016. The period effect was positively and significantly associated with the proportion of people covered by Medical Marijuana Laws (MML) (correlation coefficients: 0.89 for total sample, 0.81 for males and 0.93 for females, all three p values Conclusion The model derived trends in marijuana use were coincident with the laws and regulations on marijuana and other drugs in the United States since the 1950s. With more states legalizing marijuana use in the United States, emphasizing responsible use would be essential to protect youth from using marijuana.

Background It has been reported that current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity are significant modifiable risk factors of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the effects of age, period and cohort on the prevalence of the three lifestyle factors among Australian adults are still unclear. Methods Our study analysed data from 2004 to 2005, 2007 to 2008, 2011 to 2012, 2014 to 2015 and 2017 to 2018 National Health Survey. We employed the age–period–cohort models to analyze the individual effects of age, period and cohort on the prevalence of current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity among Australian adults. Results A total of 76 489 adults were included. Age, period and cohort all showed significant independent effects on prevalence of current smoking, overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (P Conclusion Age effects showed a distinct pattern for the prevalence of the three lifestyle factors. The prevalence of overweight/obesity continued to rise during the study period. The raised physical inactivity prevalence in recent study cycles is also concerning. Recent birth cohorts may be at increased risk of overweight/obesity and physical inactivity.

Background Mortality rates have been reduced by half over the last 60 years for nonagenarians, and the progress is continuing. The greater survival might be due to overtreatment of severely physically and cognitively disabled individuals, which is a big concern for societies and individuals. Methods The study population comprised two Danish birth cohorts: the 1905 Cohort and the 1915 Cohort. At age 95, all from the two cohorts who were still alive and living in Denmark were invited to participate in a health survey that used the same assessment instrument. A total of 2,670 (56.8%) persons participated in the two surveys and survival was assessed through a 7.3-year follow-up period during which 2,497 (93.5%) had died, and with virtually no loss to follow-up. Results Despite the increasing chance of surviving to age 95, the 1915 Cohort had significantly better health and functioning than the 1905 Cohort. The survival advantage in the 1915 Cohort continued in the follow-up period after age 95: Median survival length was 2.4 months longer, p = .011. This advantage was not statistically associated with different levels of activities of daily living, physical performance, cognitive functioning, self-rated health and life satisfaction. However, the advantage tended to be more pronounced among people with better health. Conclusions Life span and health increases among the oldest old. The improvement in survival for 95-year olds born in 1915 compared with 1905 was seen across the whole spectrum of health and functioning, with a tendency towards bigger improvement among those in good health.