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Interaction between arterial stiffness and hypertension plays an important role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, assessment of arterial stiffness may provide a tool for estimating cardiovascular risk and monitoring therapy in hypertensive patients. Radiofrequency-based vascular ultrasound allows accurate noninvasive assessment of local mechanical properties of large arteries, but for its use in clinical practice, reference values according to age and sex are mandatory for each vascular site. To provide reference values for common carotid artery stiffness as assessed by an echo-tracking imaging system Hitachi-Aloka, we pooled measurements collected in 1847 healthy subjects aged 3–74 years (1008 males and 839 females) recruited in 14 European centers in the E-tracking International Collaboration (ETIC). Statistical models were developed to describe relationships of different stiffness indices with age and to calculate median values and Z-scores corresponding to ± 1 and ± 2 standard deviations. In our apparently healthy population, age accounted for 53% of variability in the elastic modulus (epsilon), 39% in arterial compliance, 47% in stiffness index (β), and 56% in local pulse wave velocity; on average, blood pressure accounted for a further 7.5% of variability. Dependence on age was not linear; changes in mean values increased at older ages, especially for epsilon and β. There was an interaction between age and gender for arterial compliance, which was higher in males. We present nomograms and a software that can be used for the automated calculation of Z-scores for local carotid stiffness in individual patients. These tools can be used to establish prognostic indicators or surrogate targets for treatment monitoring.

IntroductionEarly infant diet might influence the risk of subsequent allergic disease.MethodsThe Merthyr Allergy Prevention Study (MAPS) was a randomised controlled trial in infants at high risk of allergic disease. The trial determined whether a cow’s milk exclusion diet for the first 4 months of life decreased the risk of allergic disease including asthma compared with a normal diet. A soya milk preparation was offered to those in the intervention group. A standardised questionnaire for allergic disease was completed at ages 1, 7, 15 and 23 years, with clinical assessment at 1, 7 and 23 years. The effect of the intervention on the risk of atopy, asthma and wheeze at age 23 years was determined.Findings487 subjects entered the study; at age 23 years 299 completed the questionnaire, of which 119 attended clinical assessment. Subjects randomised to the intervention group had a significantly increased risk of atopy (adjusted OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.30 to 6.80; p=0.01) and asthma (OR 2.07, 95%CI 1.09 to 3.91; p=0.03) at age 23 years, but not wheeze (OR 1.43, 95%CI 0.87 to 2.37; p=0.16). Earlier exposure to cow’s milk was associated with a decreased risk of wheeze and asthma at age 23 years, while earlier exposure to soya milk was associated with an increased risk of atopy and asthma.InterpretationIn infants at high risk of allergic disease, either cow’s milk exclusion or early soya milk introduction for the first 4 months of life increases the risk of atopy, wheeze and asthma in adulthood.

Objective Examine the health and economic impact of extending screening intervals in people with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) without diabetes-related retinopathy (DR). Setting Diabetic Eye Screening Wales (DESW). Study design Retrospective observational study with cost-utility analysis (CUA) and Decremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (DCER) study. Intervention Biennial screening versus usual care (annual screening). Inputs Anonymised data from DESW were linked to primary care data for people with two prior screening events with no DR. Transition probabilities for progression to DR were estimated based on a subset of 26,812 and 1232 people with T2DM and T1DM, respectively. DCER above £20,000 per QALY was considered cost-effective. Results The base case analysis DCER results of £71,243 and £23,446 per QALY for T2DM and T1DM respectively at a 3.5% discount rate and £56,822 and £14,221 respectively when discounted at 1.5%. Diabetes management represented by the mean HbA1c was 7.5% for those with T2DM and 8.7% for T1DM. Sensitivity analysis Extending screening to biennial based on HbA1c, being the strongest predictor of progression of DR, at three levels of HbA1c 6.5%, 8.0% and 9.5% lost one QALY saving the NHS £106,075; £58,653 and £31,626 respectively for T2DM and £94,696, £37,646 and £11,089 respectively for T1DM. In addition, extending screening to biennial based on the duration of diabetes > 6 years for T2DM per QALY lost, saving the NHS £54,106 and for 6-12 and > 12 years for T1DM saving £83,856, £23,446 and £13,340 respectively. Conclusions Base case and sensitivity analyses indicate biennial screening to be cost-effective for T2DM irrespective of HbA1c and duration of diabetes. However, the uncertainty around the DCER indicates that annual screening should be maintained for those with T1DM especially when the HbA1c exceeds 80 mmol/mol (9.5%) and duration of diabetes is greater than 12 years.

IntroductionThis study aims to identify the prevalence and pattern of bruises in preschool children over time, and explore influential variablesMethodsProspective longitudinal study of children (Results3523 bruises recorded from 2570 data collections from 328 children (mean age 19 months); 6.7% of 1010 collections from premobile children had at least one bruise (2.2% of babies who could not roll over and 9.8% in those who could), compared with 45.6% of 478 early mobile and 78.8% of 1082 walking child collections. The most common site affected in all groups was below the knees, followed by ‘facial T’ and head in premobile and early mobile. The ears, neck, buttocks, genitalia and hands were rarely bruised (ConclusionsThese data should help clinicians understand the patterns of ‘everyday bruising’ and recognise children who have an unusual numbers or distribution of bruises who may need assessment for physical abuse or bleeding disorders.

Aims Determine the prevalence and severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and risk factors in a large community based screening programme, in order to accurately estimate the future burden of this specific and debilitating complication of diabetes. Methods A cross-sectional analysis of 91 393 persons with diabetes, 5003 type 1 diabetes and 86 390 type 2 diabetes, at their first screening by the community based National Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Service for Wales from 2005 to 2009. Image capture used 2×45° digital images per eye following mydriasis, classified by qualified retinal graders with final grading based on the worst eye. Results The prevalence of any DR and sightthreatening DR in those with type 1 diabetes was 56.0% and 11.2%, respectively, and in type 2 diabetes was 30.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The presence of DR, non-sight-threatening and sight-threatening, was strongly associated with increasing duration of diabetes for either type 1 or type 2 diabetes and also associated with insulin therapy in those with type 2 diabetes. Conclusions Prevalence of DR within the largest reported community-based, quality assured, DR screening programme, was higher in persons with type 1 diabetes; however, the major burden is represented by type 2 diabetes which is 94% of the screened population.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk of emergency respiratory hospital admission during childhood associated with gestational age at birth and growth restriction in utero. METHODS: The study included a total population electronic birth cohort with anonymized record-linkage of multiple health and administrative data sets. Participants were 318 613 children born in Wales, United Kingdom, between May 1, 1998, and December 31, 2008. The main outcome measure was emergency respiratory hospital admissions. RESULTS: The rate of admission in the first year of life ranged from 41.5 per 100 child-years for infants born before 33 weeks’ gestation to 9.8 per 100 child-years for infants born at 40 to 42 weeks’ gestation. The risk of any emergency respiratory admission up to age 5 years increased as gestational age decreased to CONCLUSIONS: The risk of emergency respiratory admission up to age 5 years decreased with each successive week in gestation up to 40 to 42 weeks. Although the magnitude of increased risk associated with moderate and late preterm births is small, the number of infants affected is large and therefore presents a significant impact on health care services.

There are currently no data available regarding the normal levels of DNA found on the skin of children engaging in routine day to day activities to assist with the forensic interpretation of DNA profiles generated from skin surface swabs. To address this deficit, skin surface swab samples were collected from 12 face/neck sites and 20 body sites on 50 children less than 5 years old. After exclusion of spoilt samples, 60 sets of swabs from 47 children (30 face/neck, 30 body) comprising of 944 individual samples were analysed. The number of alleles observed which could have originated from the child and the number which must have come from another source (non-child) were analysed. The following variables were evaluated: age, kissing, feeding and washing practices, number of contacts and application of cream. Overall, extremely small amounts of non-child DNA were retrieved from skin swabs. Child only (46.3 %) or no DNA at all (18.6 %) was observed for 64.9 % of all swabbed samples. Low levels of non-child DNA (1–5 alleles) were observed on 31.6 % of all swabs tested with only 3.4 % of swabs showing six or more alleles. A great deal of variation between children and between sites in the levels of both child DNA and non-child DNA was observed. A multilevel model, taking account of clustering within children, showed that there was a strong direct association between the amounts of child and non-child DNA observed. There was no relationship between the amount of DNA recovered and the demographic and biographic variables analysed. These background data have the potential to assist the analysis of DNA from the skin of children during criminal investigation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00414-013-0906-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

OBJECTIVES:To investigate the association between moving home in the first year of life and subsequent emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations.METHODS:We undertook a cohort analysis of linked anonymized data on 237 842 children in the Welsh Electronic Cohort for Children. We included children born in Wales between April 1, 1999 and December 31, 2008. The exposure was the number of residential moves from birth up to 1 year. The main outcome was emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) between the age of 1 and 5 years.RESULTS:After adjustment for confounders, we identified that moving home frequently in the first year of life was associated with an increased risk of emergency PPH between the ages of 1 and 5 when compared with not moving. We found significant differences associated with ≥2 moves for the following: ear, nose, and throat infections (incidence risk ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29–1.61); convulsions/epilepsy (IRR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.23–2.04); injuries (IRR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18–1.51); dehydration/gastroenteritis (IRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.21–1.88); asthma (IRR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.19–2.16); influenza/pneumonia (IRR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00–1.32); and dental conditions (IRR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03–1.64) for ≥1 moves.CONCLUSIONS:Children who move home in the first year of life are at substantially increased risk of emergency admissions for PPH in early childhood. Additional research that focuses on enhancing health and social support services for highly mobile families, educating parents about safety risks, and improving housing quality is warranted.

Rationale: Few studies have investigated childhood respiratory outcomes of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), and it is unclear if catch-up growth in these children influences lung function. Objectives: We determined if lung function differed in 8- to 9-year-old children born at term with or without growth retardation, and, in the growth-retarded group, if lung function differed between those who did and those who did not show weight catch up. Methods: Caucasian singleton births of 37 weeks or longer gestation from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 14,062) who had lung spirometry at 8–9 years of age were included (n = 5,770). Measurements and Main Results: Infants with gestation-appropriate birthweight (n = 3,462) had significantly better lung function at 8–9 years of age than those with IUGR (i.e., birthweight

BACKGROUND:Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by 36% between 2000 and 2007 and it is estimated that approximately 50% of the fall was due to improved treatment uptake. Marked socio-economic inequalities in CHD mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) remain, with higher age-adjusted rates in more deprived groups. Inequalities in the persistence of medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD may contribute to the observed social gradient and we investigated this possibility in the population of Wales (UK). METHODS AND FINDINGS:An electronic cohort of individuals aged over 20 (n = 1,199,342) in Wales (UK) was formed using linked data from primary and secondary care and followed for six years (2004-2010). We identified indications for medication (statins, aspirin, ACE inhibitors, clopidogrel) recommended in UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance for CHD (high risk, stable angina, stable angina plus diabetes, unstable angina, and myocardial infarction) and measured the persistence of indicated medication (time from initiation to discontinuation) across quintiles of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, an area-based measure of socio-economic inequality, using Cox regression frailty models. In models adjusted for demographic factors, CHD risk and comorbidities across 15 comparisons for persistence of the medications, none favoured the least deprived quintile, two favoured the most deprived quintile and 13 showed no significant differences. CONCLUSIONS:During our study period (2004-2010) we found no significant evidence of socio-economic inequality in the persistence of recommended medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD.

Objective: To estimate the incidence and describe the aetiology of epistaxis in infants. Design: Population-based study including a retrospective hospital admission database analysis and a postal questionnaire to clinicians. Setting: Wales, United Kingdom. Methods: Cases of epistaxis over a 6-year period (1999–2004) were identified from the Patient Episode Dataset for Wales (PEDW) and validated using clinical information to calculate the population-based incidence and ascertain the causes of epistaxis in infants in Wales. Results: 36 confirmed cases were identified over the 6-year period giving an estimated annual incidence of epistaxis of 19.3 (95% CI 14.0 to 26.7) per 100 000 infants. The median age at admission was 12 weeks (interquartile range 4–33) (min 1 week, max 49 weeks). 23 of the infants had a recognised cause for their epistaxis (trauma (five), coagulation disorder (four), congenital anomaly (two), acute rhinitis or coryza (11), abusive smothering event (one)). No cause for the epistaxis was identified for 13 cases. Coagulation disorder was excluded in seven of these 13 infants but in the other six no attempt was made to exclude this disorder. Child abuse was suspected but excluded in four of the 13 cases. Conclusion: Hospital admission for epistaxis is a rare event. In the majority of cases in this study a simple explanation was available and proven physical abuse was rare. A bleeding disorder should always be considered and, if additional evidence suggests physical abuse, this must be excluded.

Background. Social inequalities in health are well documented in the social epidemiology literature. However, less is known about the mechanisms linking individual and area-level socio-economic status to health. In this paper we examine whether health locus of control (HLC) beliefs can help to explain socio-economic differences in self-rated health using the multidimensional HLC scale. Methods. Data for this study come from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey (n = 10,892). Multilevel modelling was used to examine the variation in HLC beliefs across different socio-demographic groups and levels of neighbourhood socio-economic status, and to investigate whether HLC beliefs mediate the health effects of individual and neighbourhood socio-economic position. Results. This study found that the HLC scales were significantly associated with individual and neighbourhood socio-economic status, as well as with self-rated health. HLC beliefs appeared to mediate some of the health effects of individual socio-economic status and to a lesser extent the health effects of neighbourhood socio-economic status. Conclusions. Some evidence was found that HLC forms part of the pathway between individual and neighbourhood socio-economic status and health. Future research should further explore the psychological consequences of living in economically deprived conditions, alongside material, social and behavioural processes, and examine how this impacts upon people's health and well-being.

BackgroundThere is increasing interest in the proposition that residential environment can affect mental health.AimsTo study the degree to which common mental disorder clusters according to postcode units and households. To investigate whether contextual measures of residential environment quality and geographical accessibility are associated with symptoms of common mental disorder.MethodA total of 1058 individuals aged 16–75 years (response rate 66%) participated in a cross-sectional survey The 12-item General Health Questionnaire measured symptoms of common mental disorder.ResultsOnly 2% (95% CI 0–6) of the unexplained variation in symptoms existed at postcode unit level, whereas 37% (95% CI 27–49) existed at household-level, but the postcode unit variation was reduced to zero after adjustments. There was little evidence to suggest that residential quality or accessibility were associated with symptoms.ConclusionsThere was substantial unexplained variation at the household level but we could find no evidence of postcode unit variation and no association with residential environmental quality or geographical accessibility. It is likely that the psychosocial environment is more important than the physical environment in relation to common mental disorder.

BackgroundThe relationship between the Mental Illness Needs Index (MINI) and the common mental disorders is not known.AimsTo investigate associations between the small-area MINI score and common mental disorder at individual level.MethodMental health status was measured using the Mental Health Inventory of the Short Form 36 instrument (SF-36). Data from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs population survey were analysed in multilevel models of 10 653 individuals aged 18–74 years nested within the 2001 UK census geographies of 110 lower super output areas and 33 wards.ResultsThe MINI score was significantly associated with common mental disorder after adjusting for individual risk factors. This association was stronger at the smaller spatial scale of the lower super output area and for individuals who were permanently sick or disabled.ConclusionsThe MINI is potentially useful for small-area needs assessment and service planning for common mental disorder in community settings.

This paper investigates multilevel associations between the common mental disorders of anxiety, depression and economic inactivity measured at the level of the individual and the UK 2001 census ward. The data set comes from the Caerphilly Health & Social Needs study, in which a representative survey of adults aged 18–74 years was carried out to collect a wide range of information which included mental health status (using the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) scale of the Short Form-36 health status questionnaire), and socio-economic status (including employment status, social class, household income, housing tenure and property value). Ward level economic inactivity was measured using non-means tested benefits data from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) on long-term Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance. Estimates from multilevel linear regression models of 10,653 individuals nested within 36 census wards showed that individual mental health status was significantly associated with ward-level economic inactivity, after adjusting for individual-level variables, with a moderate effect size of ?0.668 (standard error=0.258). There was a significant cross-level interaction between ward-level and individual economic inactivity from permanent sickness or disability, such that the effect of permanent sickness or disability on mental health was significantly greater for people living in wards with high levels of economic inactivity. This supports the hypothesis that living in a deprived neighbourhood has the most negative health effects on poorer individuals and is further evidence for a substantive effect of the place where you live on mental health.

Using data on 24,975 respondents to the Welsh Health Survey 1998 aged 17-74 years, we investigated associations between individual mental health status measured using the SF-36 instrument, social class, economic inactivity and the electoral division Townsend deprivation score. In a multilevel modelling analysis, we found mental health was significantly associated with the Townsend score after adjusting for composition, and this effect was strongest in respondents who were economically inactive. Further contextual effects were shown by significant random variability in the slopes of the relation between mental health and economic inactivity at the electoral division level. Our results suggest that the places in which people live affect their mental health, supporting NHS policy that multi-agency planning to reduce inequalities in mental health status should address the wider determinants of health, as well as services for individual patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of educational outreach visits on antibiotic prescribing for acute dental pain in primary care. STUDY DESIGN: RCT. SETTING: General dental practices in four health authority areas in Wales. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: General dental practitioners were recruited to the study and randomly allocated to one of the three study groups (control group, guideline group or intervention group). Following the intervention, practitioners completed a standardised questionnaire for each patient that presented with acute dental pain. INTERVENTIONS: The control group received no intervention. The guideline group received educational material by post. The intervention group received educational material by post and an academic detailing visit by a trained pharmacist. The educational material included evidence-based guidelines on prescribing for acute dental pain and patient information leaflets. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of antibiotic prescriptions issued to patients presenting with dental pain and the number of 'inappropriate' antibiotic prescriptions. Antibiotics were considered to be inappropriate if the patient did not have symptoms indicative of spreading infection. RESULTS: A total of 1,497 completed questionnaires were received from 23, 20 and 27 general dental practitioners in the control, guideline and intervention group respectively. Patients in the intervention group received significantly fewer antibiotic prescriptions than patients in the control group (OR (95% CI) 0.63 (0.41, 0.95)) and significantly fewer inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions (OR (95% CI) 0.33 (0.21, 0.54)). However, antibiotic and inappropriate antibiotic prescribing were not significantly different in the guideline group compared to the control group (OR (95% CI) 0.83 (0.55, 1.21) and OR (95% CI) 0.82 (0.53, 1.29) respectively).CONCLUSIONS: Strategies based upon educational outreach visits may be successfully employed to rationalise antibiotic prescribing by dental practitioners.

There has been much speculation about a possible association between the social and built environment and health, but the empirical evidence is still elusive. The social and built environments are best seen as contextual concepts but they are usually estimated as an aggregation of individual compositional measures, such as perceptions on trust or the desirability to live in an area. If these aggregated compositional measures were valid measures, one would expect that they would evince correlations at higher levels of data collection (e.g., neighbourhood). The aims of this paper are: (1) to investigate the factor structure of a self-administered questionnaire measuring individual perceptions of trust, social participation, social cohesion, social control, and the built environment; (2) to investigate variation in these factors at higher than the individual level (households and postcodes) in order to assess if these constructs reflect some contextual effect; and (3) to study the association between mental health, as measured by the General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12), and these derived factors. A cross-sectional household survey was undertaken during May-August 2001 in a district of South Wales with a population of 140,000. We found that factor analysis grouped our questions in factors similar to the theoretical ones we had previously envisaged. We also found that approximately one-third of the variance for neighbourhood quality and 10% for social control was explained at postcode (neighbourhood) level after adjusting for individual variables, thus suggesting that some of our compositional measures capture contextual characteristics of the built and social environment. After adjusting for individual variables, trust and social cohesion, two key social capital components were the only factors to show statistically significant associations with GHQ-12 scores. However, these factors also showed little variation at postcode levels, suggesting a stronger individual determination. We conclude that our results provide some evidence in support of an association between mental health (GHQ-12 scores) and perceptions of social capital, but less support for the contextual nature of social capital.

Background: A study was undertaken to see whether the prevalence of asthma has changed since a survey was conducted in 1988, using the same methods that showed an increase during the previous 15 years. Methods: A survey of 12 year old children was conducted in schools in South Wales where surveys had taken place in 1973 and 1988. The survey comprised a parentally completed questionnaire and an exercise challenge test, performed when no bronchodilator had been recently used. Results: In 1973, 1988, and 2003, questionnaires were obtained for 817, 965 and 1148 children, respectively; the exercise test was performed by 812, 960 and 1019 children, respectively. The prevalence of reported wheeze in the last year rose during each 15 year period (9.8%, 15.2%, 19.7%), with an even steeper rise in reported asthma ever (5.5%, 12.0%, 27.3%). There was a continued increase in wheeze attributed to running, in terms of all children (5.8%, 10.5%, 16.0%) and also as the proportion of those with a history of wheeze (34.1%, 47.0%, 57.3%). The use of inhaled corticosteroids (not available in 1973) increased fourfold between 1988 and 2003. The prevalence of exercise induced bronchoconstriction rose between 1973 and 1988 but had declined by 2003. Conclusions: The rise in the prevalence of asthmatic symptoms has continued since 1988. This appears to conflict with a reported recent decline, unless asthma prevalence peaked in the 1990s. The decline in exercise induced bronchoconstriction is probably attributable to better control of the disease as more children are now using inhaled corticosteroids as preventive treatment.

IntroductionRecent systematic reviews have highlighted the dearth of evidence on the effectiveness of regeneration on health and health inequalities. ‘Communities First’ is an area-wide regeneration scheme to improve the lives of people living in the most deprived areas in Wales (UK). This study will evaluate the impact of Communities First on residents’ mental health and social cohesion.Methods and analysisA prospective controlled quasi-experimental study of the association between residence in Communities First regeneration areas in Caerphilly county borough and change in mental health and social cohesion. The study population is the 4226 residents aged 18–74 years who responded to the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study in 2001 (before delivery) and 2008 (after delivery of Communities First). Data on the location, type and cost of Communities First interventions will be extracted from records collected by Caerphilly county borough council. The primary outcome is the change in mental health between 2001 and 2008. Secondary outcomes are changes: in common mental disorder case status (using survey and general practice data), social cohesion and mental health inequalities. Multilevel models will examine change in mental health and social cohesion between Communities First and control areas, adjusting for individual and household level confounding factors. Further models will examine the effects of (1) different types of intervention, (2) contamination across areas, (3) length of residence in a Communities First area, and (4) population migration. We will carry out a cost-consequences analysis to summarise the outcomes generated for participants, as well as service utilisation and utility gains.Ethics and disseminationThis study has had approval from the Information Governance Review Panel at Swansea University (Ref: 0266 CF). Findings will be disseminated through peer-review publications, international conferences, policy and practice partners in local and national government, and updates on our study website (http://medicine.cardiff.ac.uk/clinical-study/communities-first-regeneration-programme/).

Aim To study the association between travel time from home to hospital and birth outcomes. Methods For all registrable births to women resident in Wales (1995–2009), we calculated the travel time between the mother's residence and the postcode-based location for both the birth hospital and all hospitals with maternity services that were open. Using logistic regression, we obtained odds ratios for the association between travel time and each birth outcome, adjusted for confounders. Results In our analysis of 412 827 singleton births, for every 15-min increase in travel time to the birth hospital, there was an increased risk of early (n = 609; OR: 1.13; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.20) and late neonatal death (n = 251; OR: 1.15; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.26). Results for intrapartum stillbirth were inconclusive (n = 135; OR: 1.13; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.30). For the above-combined (n = 995) results, we get OR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.20. No association was found with travel time to the nearest hospital (OR: 1.01; 95%CI: 0.90, 1.13 per 15-min increase in travel time) for the composite outcome of intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal deaths. Conclusion Longer travel time to the birth hospital was associated with increased risk of neonatal deaths, but there was no strong evidence of association with the geographical location of maternity services.

Preterm birth, low birth weight and poor foetal nutrition have been linked to cardiovascular disease, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We explored prematurity and vascular function by studying a UK cohort of 14 049 children and conducting a systematic review.Systolic blood pressure was higher in subjects born preterm than term, but there were no differences in endothelial dysfunction or arterial stiffness. The systematic review revealed no clear association between prematurity and vascular function.

BackgroundThe common mental disorders (CMDs) of anxiety and depression are the most common form of poor mental health in the general population. Evidence from the small number of previous cohort studies on the role of neighbourhood factors in mental health is inconclusive. We tested the hypothesis that high levels of neighbourhood social cohesion modify an adverse association between change in individual mental health and neighbourhood deprivation.MethodWe carried out a longitudinal multilevel analysis using data from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Cohort Study with a 7-year follow-up (n = 4426; age range 18–74 years at baseline). Neighbourhood deprivation and neighbourhood social cohesion were assessed at baseline and change in mental health between follow-up and baseline was assessed using the five-item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5).ResultsResidence in the most deprived neighbourhoods was negatively associated with change in mental health, after adjusting for baseline individual socio-economic risk factors and transitions in life events. This negative effect was significantly reduced in high social cohesion neighbourhoods. The predicted change in mental health score was calculated for the 10th and 90th centiles of the household low-income distribution. The difference between them was −2.8 in the low social cohesion group and 1.1 in the high cohesion group. The difference between the groups was 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2–7.6].ConclusionsThe public health burden of poor mental health and mental health inequality could potentially be reduced by strengthening social cohesion in deprived neighbourhoods. This offers a mechanism to address the adverse effect of neighbourhood deprivation on population mental health.

STUDY QUESTION Are arterial stiffness, carotid intima-media thickness and diastolic dysfunction increased in young women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) independently of the effects of obesity? SUMMARY ANSWER Insulin resistance and central obesity are associated with subclinical cardiovascular dysfunction in young women, but a diagnosis of PCOS does not appear to confer additional risk at this age. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Some studies have shown that young women with PCOS may have increased measures of cardiovascular risk, including arterial stiffness, carotid intima-media thickness and myocardial dysfunction. However, it is difficult to establish how much of this risk is due to PCOS per se and how much is due to obesity and insulin resistance, which are common in PCOS and themselves associated with greater vascular risk. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This cross-sectional study comprised 84 women with PCOS and 95 healthy volunteers, aged 16–45 years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was conducted in a university hospital. Subjects underwent a comprehensive assessment of body composition (including computed tomography (CT) assessment of visceral fat; VF), measurements of arterial stiffness (aortic pulse wave velocity; aPWV), common carotid intima-media thickness (ccIMT), diastolic function (longitudinal tissue velocity; e′:a′) and endocrinological measures. A sample size of 80 in each group gave 80% power for detecting a difference of 0.45 m/s in aPWV or a difference of 0.25 in e′:a′. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE After adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI), PCOS subjects had a greater insulin response (insulin area under the curve—IAUC) following glucose challenge (adjusted difference [AD] 35 900 pmol min/l, P < 0.001) and higher testosterone (AD 0.57 nmol/l, P < 0.001) and high molecular weight adiponectin than controls (AD 3.01 µg/ml, P = 0.02), but no significant differences in aPWV (AD −0.13 m/s, P = 0.33), ccIMT (AD −0.01 mm, P = 0.13), or e′:a′ (AD −0.01, P = 0.86) were observed. After adjustment for age, height and central pulse pressure, e′:a′ and aPWV were associated with logVF and IAUC. ccIMT was not related to logVF. The relationships between e′:a′ or aPWV and insulin resistance were only partly attenuated by adjusting for logVF. There was no significant relationship between aPWV or e′:a′ and either testosterone or adiponectin. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The study recruited young women meeting the Rotterdam criteria for PCOS diagnosis; hence our findings may not be generalizable to older patients or those meeting other definitions of the syndrome. Biochemical hyperandrogenism was based solely on measurement of total testosterone. Cases and controls were not matched in advance for age and BMI, although the influence of these variables on the cardiovascular outcome measures was adjusted for. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This study shows that central arterial stiffness and diastolic dysfunction are not increased in young women with PCOS, whereas they are associated with both insulin resistance and central obesity. Obesity thus represents the greatest modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease in young women with PCOS and lifestyle measures which target weight reduction are critical. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study received no specific grant support from any funding body. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Background\ud Improvement in ultrasound imaging has led to the identification of subtle non-structural markers during the 18 – 20 week fetal anomaly scan, such as echogenic bowel, mild cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, and nuchal thickening. These markers are estimated to occur in between 0.6% and 4.3% of pregnancies. Their clinical significance, for pregnancy outcomes or childhood morbidity, is largely unknown. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of seven markers in the general obstetric population and establish a cohort of children for longer terms follow-up to assess the clinical significance of these markers. \ud \ud Methods/Design\ud All women receiving antenatal care within six of seven Welsh Health Boards who had an 18 to 20 week ultrasound scan in Welsh NHS Trusts between July 2008 and March 2011 were eligible for inclusion. Data were collected on seven markers (echogenic bowel, cerebral ventriculomegaly, renal pelvicalyceal dilatation, nuchal thickening, cardiac echogenic foci, choroid plexus cysts, and short femur) at the time of 18 – 20 week fetal anomaly scan. Ultrasound records were linked to routinely collected data on pregnancy outcomes (work completed during 2012 and 2013). Images were stored and reviewed by an expert panel. \ud \ud The prevalence of each marker (reported and validated) will be estimated. A projected sample size of 23,000 will allow the prevalence of each marker to be estimated with the following precision: a marker with 0.50% prevalence to within 0.10%; a marker with 1.00% prevalence to within 0.13%; and a marker with 4.50% prevalence to within 0.27%. The relative risk of major congenital abnormalities, stillbirths, pre-term birth and small for gestational age, given the presence of a validated marker, will be reported. \ud \ud Discussion\ud This is a large, prospective study designed to estimate the prevalence of markers in a population-based cohort of pregnant women and to investigate associations with adverse pregnancy outcomes. The study will also establish a cohort of children that can be followed-up to explore associations between specific markers and longer-term health and social outcomes.

AIMS To investigate the relation between social deprivation and causes of stillbirth and infant mortality. METHODS Stillbirths and infant deaths in 6347 enumeration districts in Wales were linked with the Townsend score of social deprivation. In 1993–98 there were 211 072 live births, 1147 stillbirths, and 1223 infant deaths. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the magnitude of effect for associations between the Townsend score and categories of death by age and the causes of death. The relative risk of death between most and least deprived enumeration districts was derived. RESULTS Relative risk of combined stillbirth and infant death was 1.53 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.74) in the most deprived compared with the least deprived enumeration districts. The early neonatal mortality rate was not significantly associated with deprivation. Sudden infant death syndrome showed a 307% (95% CI 197% to 456%) increase in mortality across the range of deprivation. Deaths caused by specific conditions and infection were also associated with deprivation, but there was no evidence of a significant association with deaths caused by placental abruption, intrapartum asphyxia, and prematurity. CONCLUSIONS Collaborative public health action at national and local level to target resources in deprived communities and reduce these inequalities in child health is required. Early neonatal mortality rates and deaths from intrapartum asphyxia and prematurity are not significantly associated with deprivation and may be more appropriate quality of clinical care indicators than stillbirth, perinatal, and neonatal mortality rates.

The efficiency of a screening programme for Down's syndrome is usually expressed in terms of the detection rate for a given false positive rate. Two programmes with approximately equal detection rates and false positive rates would then be regarded as being broadly equivalent. While this might be the case at a population level, we show in this paper that it may be far from true at the individual patient level. Different algorithms, or even different implementations of the same algorithm can lead to calculation of very different individual risks and can result in different decisions for individual patients. Even though two programmes might lead to the same number of referrals, they could be referring quite different women. We consider the effect of using different parameter values within an algorithm, different algorithms and alternative ways of estimating the gestational age-dependent medians of the marker values. We show that the combined effects of these factors could explain much of the range of risks reported in the UK National External Quality Assessment Scheme for Down's syndrome screening.

To evaluate the role of tacrolimus in the treatment of Chronic Graft Nephropathy (CGN), a pilot cross-sectional study was performed on 14 patients with deteriorating renal function and biopsy-proven CGN. Maintenance therapy was switched from cyclosporin to tacrolimus, and results of conversion on allograft function were assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and clinical outcome. Minimum follow-up was 15 months. Two distinctive response patterns emerged: (i) continuing deterioration of renal function with no apparent benefit over the projected trend of GFR (nine patients), and (ii) unequivocal change in the GFR trend line equation with reduced rate of deterioration in one patient and sustained improvement of GFR in four patients (reversal of downward trend). Five out of 14 patients (36 %) benefited from replacing Neoral with Prograf. All five patients exceeded their estimated time of return to dialysis by a median of 41 weeks (range: 29-52) and their grafts continue to function.

Active support, a package of procedures which includes activity planning, support planning and training on providing effective assistance, was introduced in five community residences serving 19 adults with severe intellectual disability following a multiple baseline design. The residents were directly observed to ascertain the level of assistance they received from staff and their engagement in activity. The introduction of active support increased the levels of assistance residents received, their engagement in domestic activities and their total engagement in activity. The intervention did not affect the level of social engagement. Across individuals, increases in assistance and engagement in activity were significantly and positively correlated. Both were significantly inversely related to resident adaptive behaviour. At baseline, staff gave more attention and assistance to people who were behaviourally more able. After the introduction of active support, receipt of attention was unrelated to adaptive behaviour and the behaviourally less able received more assistance. The disparity in activity between the more and less able was reduced. Gains were maintained in the majority of houses.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the day-to-day intraindividual variability of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in newly diagnosed Caucasian type 2 diabetic subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 193 newly diagnosed, previously untreated, Caucasian type 2 diabetic subjects (135 men, 58 women) had FPG measured on two consecutive days (FPG1, FPG2). Ethical approval and subjects' full informed consent were obtained. Subjects fasted for 12 h before each study day and rested for at least 30 min before blood was taken. Plasma glucose was analyzed by a glucose oxidase method with intra- and interassay coefficients of variation (CVs) < 2%. Variability of FPG was assessed by comparison of percentage differences (PDs): PD = 100 (FPG2 - FPG1)/FPG1, with averaged FPG (FPGaver = [FPG1 + FPG2]/2). Biological and analytical variability were determined by use of SD2total = SD2biological + SD2analytical, where SD2analytical approximately equal to 2 x (CVglucose measurement)2. Given normally distributed data with zero mean, 95% of daily percentage differences will be expected to fall within a range of +/- 2 SDtotal. RESULTS: Subjects were age 54 +/- 10 years (mean +/- SD) and had BMI of 29.3 +/- 5.3 kg/m2. FPG values for both days were 12.2 +/- 3.4 mmol/l (FPG1) and 12.1 +/- 3.3 mmol/l (FPG2), with a mean paired difference (95% CI) of 0.1 (0.0 to 0.3) mmol/l. The variance of these differences increased with increasing FPGaver. The PDs did not exhibit this effect and were normally distributed (mean -0.6% [-1.7 to 0.4]; SD 7.4% [6.8 to 8.3]), giving a 95% variability (2 SD) of 14.8%. Biological variability (2 SDbiological) was 13.7%. No significant difference in PD was found between men and women (mean difference 1.3% [-1.0 to 3.6]; SDmale 7.4%, SDfemale 7.3%; P = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: A total of 95% of the FPG values for this group of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic subjects varied within approximately +/- 15% on a daily basis, with approximately 14% caused by biological variability. As these results are expressed in percentage terms, subjects in the group with higher FPG values are likely to experience larger changes in FPG values measured from day to day. This variability should be considered when using FPG for the diagnosis and/or monitoring of response to treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Various studies have suggested that there may be an environmental factor in schizophrenia acting before or at birth but with delayed effects. Evidence that the risk of developing schizophrenia varies randomly with the year of birth would help confirm the existence of such a factor. Data from the Scottish Health Service Information and Statistics Division, comprising all first admissions for ICD-9 schizophrenia in the years 1963-91, were used to estimate the lifetime risk of developing schizophrenia for each year of birth from 1900 to 1969. In the period after 1928 the lifetime risk steadily declined. The rate of decline was greater in females. The random fluctuations in the risks in females did not change systematically, but there was a significant decline in the variability of these fluctuations in males. These random fluctuations suggest a possible role for randomly varying environmental influences around the time of birth. Our findings suggest a possible diminution in the role of such environmental influences in schizophrenia among males in Scotland in the years 1929 to 1969.

The prevalence of osteopenia in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is unknown. The effect of nutritional state, disease activity, and steroid therapy on bone mineral content (BMC) of whole body, lumbar spine, and left femoral neck measured by dual energy x ray absorptiometry in 32 children with IBD was assessed by comparison with 58 healthy local school children. Using the control data, a predicted BMC was calculated taking into account bone area, age, height, weight, and pubertal stage. The measured BMC in children with IBD was expressed as a percentage of this predicted value (% BMC). Mean (SD) % BMC was significantly reduced for the whole body and left femoral neck in the children with IBD (97.0 (4.5)% and 93.1 (12.0)% respectively, p < 0.05). Of the children with IBD, 41% had a % BMC less than 1 SD below the mean for the whole body and 47% at the femoral neck. Reduction in % BMC was associated with steroid usage but not with the magnitude of steroid dose, disease activity, or biochemical markers of bone metabolism. In conclusion, osteopenia is relatively common in childhood IBD and may be partly related to the previous use of steroids.

Recently published standards for body mass index (BMI) based on population studies of height and weight in healthy British children allow an easy but indirect assessment of adiposity in healthy children. However, assessment of adiposity based on standards derived from reference populations may not be appropriate for use in subjects with disease states associated with abnormalities of growth and body composition. This hypothesis was tested by comparison between BMI standard deviation scores (SDS) and more direct measures of body fat derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) and skinfold thickness in groups of children, receiving growth hormone, with inflammatory bowel disease, previously treated for malignancy, and healthy controls. Excess adiposity was defined as a body fat greater than the 85th percentile and was compared to a BMI SDS of +1.0. Overall the sensitivity and specificity for a BMI SDS of +1.0 to correctly identify individuals as having excess adiposity was 66% and 94%, respectively, when body fat was measured by DEXA, and 50% and 100% when estimated from skinfold measurements, respectively. There were no significant differences in these statistics whether applied to the individual disease groups or to healthy controls. These findings suggest that BMI under-predicts the prevalence of excess adiposity in children with disease states but surprisingly to no greater degree than that seen in healthy subjects.

Aims: To quantify the risks of British children drowning abroad. Methods: The numbers of British children drowning abroad were estimated for 1996–2003 using the RoSPA/RLSS press cutting database. We compared these figures with the numbers of British children going abroad from the International Passenger Survey from the Office of National Statistics. Results: Sixty-eight children (45 boys-23 Girls) drowned in the eight-year period: 48 (71%) in swimming pools (mostly in hotels). Allowing for exposure, the rate was higher in North America [5.2 (CI 2.9–9.4)/million tourists] than the European Union [1.9 (CI 1.4–2.5)/million tourists] p = 0.002. Discussion: On average eight British children drown each year abroad. This is therefore a rare but tragic event. Most of these episodes happen in swimming pools and this needs to be compared to the one child that dies each year in municipal swimming pools in the United Kingdom where there is adequate lifeguarding. It may be that parents have a false sense of security for their children in pools abroad. We believe that there needs to be action from the European Union on this important event.

Frequent mobility has been linked to poorer educational attainment. We investigated the association between moving\ud home and moving school frequently and the early childhood formal educational achievement. We carried out a cohort\ud analysis of 121,422 children with anonymised linked records. Our exposure measures were: 1) the number of residential\ud moves registered with a health care provider, and 2) number of school moves. Our outcome was the formal educational\ud assessment at age 6–7. Binary regression modeling was used to examine residential moves within the three time periods: 0\ud – ,1 year; 1 – ,4 years and 4 – ,6 years. School moves were examined from age 4 to age 6. We adjusted for demographics,\ud residential moves at different times, school moves and birth related variables. Children who moved home frequently were\ud more likely not to achieve in formal assessments compared with children not moving. Adjusted odds ratios were significant\ud for 3 or more moves within the time period 1 –,4 years and for any number of residential moves within the time period 4–\ud ,6 years. There was a dose response relationship, with increased odds ratios with increased frequency of residential moves\ud (2 or more moves at 4–,6 years, adjusted odds ratio 1.16 (1.03, 1.29). The most marked effect was seen with frequent\ud school moves where 2 or more moves resulted in an adjusted odds ratio of 2.33 (1.82, 2.98). This is the first study to examine\ud the relationship between residential and school moves in early childhood and the effect on educational attainment.\ud Children experiencing frequent mobility may be disadvantaged and should be closely monitored. Additional educational\ud support services should be afforded to children, particularly those who frequently change school, in order to help them\ud achieve the expected educational standards.

BackgroundCommon mental disorders are more prevalent in areas of high neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation but whether the prevalence varies with neighbourhood income inequality is not known.AimsTo investigate the hypothesis that the interaction between small-area income deprivation and income inequality was associated with individual mental health.MethodMultilevel analysis of population data from the Welsh Health Survey, 2003/04-2010. A total of 88623 respondents aged 18-74 years were nested within 50587 households within 1887 lower super output areas (neighbourhoods) and 22 unitary authorities (regions), linked to the Gini coefficient (income inequality) and the per cent of households living in poverty (income deprivation). Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Inventory MHI-5 as a discrete variable and as a ‘case’ of common mental disorder.ResultsHigh neighbourhood income inequality was associated with better mental health in low-deprivation neighbourhoods after adjusting for individual and household risk factors (parameter estimate +0.70 (s.e. =0.33), P=0.036; odds ratio (OR) for common mental disorder case 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97). Income inequality at regional level was significantly associated with poorer mental health (parameter estimate −1.35 (s.e.=0.54), P=0.012; OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.22).ConclusionsThe associations between common mental disorders, income inequality and income deprivation are complex. Income inequality at neighbourhood level is less important than income deprivation as a risk factor for common mental disorders. The adverse effect of income inequality starts to operate at the larger regional level.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the incidence of Campylobacter and Salmonella infection in patients prescribed proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) compared with controls. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using anonymous general practitioner (GP) data. Anonymised individual-level records from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) system between 1990 and 2010 in Wales were selected. Data were available from 1,913,925 individuals including 358,938 prescribed a PPI. The main outcome measures examined included incidence of Campylobacter or Salmonella infection following a prescription for PPI. RESULTS: The rate of Campylobacter and Salmonella infections was already at 3.1–6.9 times that of non-PPI patients even before PPI prescription. The PPI group had an increased hazard rate of infection (after prescription for PPI) of 1.46 for Campylobacter and 1.2 for Salmonella, compared with baseline. However, the non-PPI patients also had an increased hazard ratio with time. In fact, the ratio of events in the PPI group compared with the non-PPI group using the prior event rate ratio was 1.17 (95% CI 0.74–1.61) for Campylobacter and 1.00 (0.5–1.5) for Salmonella. CONCLUSIONS: People who go on to be prescribed PPIs have a greater underlying risk of gastrointestinal (GI) infection beforehand and they have a higher prevalence of risk factors before PPI prescription. The rate of diagnosis of infection is increasing with time regardless of PPI use, and there is no evidence that PPI is associated with an increase in diagnosed GI infection. It is likely that factors associated with the demographic profile of the patient are the main contributors to increased rate of GI infection for patients prescribed PPIs.

The Caerphilly Health and Social Needs study was established to inform and support collaborative multiagency working on reducing inequalities in health and to investigate neighbourhood influences on mental health. Initially, we collated a robust small-area multiagency dataset of contextual health determinants and outcomes from routine sources and sharing of data between the National Health Service and Caerphilly county borough council. These data were widely used in local joint planning to improve health and reduce health inequalities. Secondly, we carried out a baseline population questionnaire survey, collecting data from 10 892 (60.6%) respondents aged 18-74 years on a wide range of socio-economic, lifestyle, health and housing factors and perceptions of the local neighbourhood, including access to services, social cohesion and neighbourhood quality. We carried out wave 2 of the survey after 7 years with responses from 4558 (50.2%) participants to the same range of questions. We developed the study into an electronic cohort, linking all 17 979 sampled participants aged 18-74 years to mortality and hospital admission records with 10-year follow-up and full recording of migration both within and out of the borough. Readers with an interest in collaborative use of the data should contact Professor David Fone, Principal Investigator.

A cohort comprising residents of a housing regeneration and health programme was created from routinely collected data using a system which allows us to anonymously link housing data to individuals and their health. The regeneration programme incorporating four rolling work packages runs from 2009 to 2014. The main intervention cohort we describe here contains the 18 312 residents of 9051 residences at baseline. The cohort will be followed continuously through routine health data (demographics, mortality, hospital admissions and general practitioner records including prescriptions) with periodic updates of housing regeneration intervention data. Here, we describe the baseline data for the primary health outcomes of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions and injuries for those aged ≥60 years. We will compare the health of residents within the homes before and after the housing regeneration work has taken place, and we will calculate the change in health service costs with use of hospital and General Practitioners (GP) services. We will also use a difference in differences approach to assess changes in comparison with comparator cohorts. These data will be accessible at the end of the study period in 2016. Further information about this study can be obtained from Ronan Lyons; r.a.lyons@swansea.ac.uk.

In Down's syndrome screening using biochemical markers, the marker concentrations are adjusted for the gestational age of the fetus, since they are known to change with gestational age. This adjustment is performed by referring to the population median of each marker for the appropriate gestational age group. The measurement of gestational age is subject to error, whatever method is used, and the population median used is actually the median of a mixture of distributions for different true gestational ages. We show how the proportions in this mixture can be estimated and how the true median corresponding to a given true gestational age can be estimated. For simplicity, we consider the case of using a single marker, namely maternal serum α-fetoprotein, and show that the usual estimation method has considerable bias. The effect of this mixture on the calculation of patient-specific risks is discussed and we show that detection rates can be improved by allowing for this error in the dating process. The overall detection rate is increased by about 1%. The increase in detection rate is age-dependent and for some maternal ages the increase is of the order of 5%. The comparative effects of different methods for dating are discussed.

Background: Excess alcohol consumption has serious adverse effects on health and violence-related harm. In the UK around 37% of men and 29% of women drink to excess and 20% and 13% report binge drinking. The potential impact on population health from a reduction in consumption is considerable. One proposed method to reduce consumption is to reduce availability through controls on alcohol outlet density. In this study we investigate the impact of a change in the density of alcohol outlets on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms to health in the community. Methods/Design: A natural experiment of the effect of change in outlet density between 200509, in Wales, UK; population 2.4 million aged 16 years and over. Data on outlets are held by the 22 local authorities in Wales under The Licensing Act 2003. The study outcomes are change in (1) alcohol consumption using data from annual Welsh Health Surveys, (2) alcohol-related hospital admissions using the Patient Episode Database for Wales, (3) Accident & Emergency department attendances between midnight6am, and (4) alcohol-related violent crime against the person, using Police data. The data will be anonymously record-linked within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank at individual and 2001 Census Lower Super Output Area levels. New methods of network analysis will be used to estimate outlet density. Longitudinal statistical analysis will use (1) multilevel ordinal models of consumption and logistic models of admissions and Accident & Emergency attendance as a function of change in individual outlet exposure, adjusting for confounding variables, and (2) spatial models of the change in counts/rates of each outcome measure and outlet density. We will assess the impact on health inequalities and will correct for population migration. Discussion: This inter-disciplinary study requires expertise in epidemiology and public health, health informatics, medical statistics, geographical information science, and research into alcohol-related violence. Information governance requirements for the use of record-linked data have been approved together with formal data access agreements for the use of the Welsh Health Survey and Police data. The dissemination strategy will include policy makers in national and local government. Public engagement will be through the Clinical Research Collaboration-Cymru "Involving People" network, which will provide input into the implementation of the research. © 2012 Fone et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd., link_to_subscribed_fulltext

Background: Rates of preterm birth have increased in most industrialised countries but data on later lung function of late preterm births are limited. A study was undertaken to compare lung function at 8–9 and 14–17 years in children born late preterm (33–34 and 35–36 weeks gestation) with children of similar age born at term (≥37 weeks gestation). Children born at 25–32 weeks gestation were also compared with children born at term. Methods: All births from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n=14 049) who had lung spirometry at 8–9 years of age (n=6705) and/or 14–17 years of age (n=4508) were divided into four gestation groups. Results: At 8–9 years of age, all spirometry measures were lower in the 33–34-week gestation group than in controls born at term but were similar to the spirometry decrements observed in the 25–32-week gestation group. The 35–36-week gestation group and term group had similar values. In the late preterm group, at 14–17 years of age forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were not significantly different from the term group but FEV1/FVC and forced expiratory flow at 25–75% FVC (FEF25–75%) remained significantly lower than term controls. Children requiring mechanical ventilation in infancy at 25–32 and 33–34 weeks gestation had in general lower airway function (FEV1 and FEF25–75) at both ages than those not ventilated in infancy. Conclusions: Children born at 33–34 weeks gestation have significantly lower lung function values at 8–9 years of age, similar to decrements observed in the 25–32-week group, although some improvements were noted by 14–17 years of age.

Objectives Patient co-payments for prescription medicines in Wales were abolished in April 2007 and there has been much speculation on the possible effects. We analysed patient-reported use of medicines before and after abolition of the prescription charge, noting changes in the number of items prescribed, number of non-prescription medicines purchased and participants not collecting all prescribed items (primary non-adherence). Methods A sample of community pharmacists across Wales (n = 249) issued questionnaires to customers at the point of dispensing who were not exempt from the prescription charge. A second questionnaire was delivered by post to those who returned the first questionnaire (n = 1027) and expressed a willingness to participate further. Paired t-tests were applied to responses from those completing both questionnaires (n = 593). Further analyses were carried out according to gender, age and reported levels of household income. Key findings There was a statistically significant (P = 0.03) rise in the number of items prescribed, and a statistically significant fall (P = 0.02) in the number of non-prescription medicines purchased. Primary non-adherence was also found to fall between pre- and post-abolition periods. Those most affected in terms of increase in number of prescribed items prescribed were the older age group (45–59 years), and those with household income of between £15 600 and £36 400. The most affected in the fall in number of medicines purchased were males, those in the lower age group (25–34 years) and those with a higher household income (>£36 400). Conclusions Although the rise in number of items prescribed and fall in number of medicines purchased was generally anticipated, there appeared to be little or no effect for those on the lowest incomes.

Background Health is a result of influences operating at multiple levels. For example, inadequate housing, poor educational attainment, and reduced access to health care are clustered together, and are all associated with reduced health. Policies which try to change individual people's behaviour have limited effect when people have little control over their environment. However, structural environmental change and an understanding of the way that influences interact with each other, has the potential to facilitate healthy choices irrespective of personal resources. The aim of Environments for Healthy Living (EHL) is to investigate the impact of gestational and postnatal environments on health, and to examine where structural change can be brought about to optimise health outcomes. The baseline assessment will focus on birth outcomes and maternal and infant health. Methods/Design EHL is a longitudinal birth cohort study. We aim to recruit 1000 pregnant women in the period April 2010 to March 2013. We will examine the impact of the gestational environment (maternal health) and the postnatal environment (housing and neighbourhood conditions) on subsequent health outcomes for the infants born to these women. Data collection will commence during the participants' pregnancy, from approximately 20 weeks gestation. Participants will complete a questionnaire, undergo anthropometric measurements, wear an accelerometer, compile a food diary, and have environmental measures taken within their home. They will also be asked to consent to having a sample of umbilical cord blood taken following delivery of their baby. These data will be complemented by routinely collected electronic data such as health records from GP surgeries, hospital admissions, and child health and development records. Thereafter, participants will be visited annually for follow-up of subsequent exposures and child health outcomes. Discussion The baseline assessment of EHL will provide information concerning the impact of gestational and postnatal environments on birth outcomes and maternal and infant health. The findings can be used to inform the development of complex interventions targeted at structural, environmental factors, intended to reduce ill-health. Long-term follow-up of the cohort will focus on relationships between environmental exposures and the later development of adverse health outcomes, including obesity and diabetes.

Objective: To examine the association of anxiety with incident dementia and cognitive impairment not dementia (CIND). Methods: We conducted a prospective study of men aged 48 to 67 years at baseline anxiety assessment; we measured cognition 17 years later. We studied 1481 men who were either eligible for examination or were known to have dementia. Trait Anxiety was assessed using the Spielberger State Trait Anxiety Inventory. Psychological distress was assessed using the 30-item general health questionnaire. Cognitive screening was followed by a clinical examination. Medical notes and death certificates of those not seen were also examined. Outcomes were CIND and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) dementia. Results: Of 1160 men who were cognitively screened, 174 cases of CIND and 69 cases of dementia were identified. A further 21 cases of dementia were identified from medical records. After adjustment for age, vascular risk factors and premorbid cognitive function associations with higher anxiety (31st–95th centile) were for CIND odds ratio (OR) 2.31 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.20–4.44) and for dementia OR 2.37 (95% CI = 0.98–5.71). These associations were slightly stronger for nonvascular (OR = 2.45; 95% CI = 1.28–4.68) than for vascular impairment (OR = 1.94; 95% CI = 0.77–4.89). Analyses of change in cognitive performance, assessed by the Cambridge Cognitive Examination of the Elderly subscales found some evidence for decline in learning memory with higher anxiety score (bage adj = −0.291 (−0.551, −0.032), but not for any other subscale. Conclusions: Anxiety is a risk factor for CIND and dementia. The extent to which the association is independent of depression and whether or not it is causal requires further study.

The aim of this study was to explore the complexities in constructing league tables purporting to measure orthodontic clinical outcomes. Eighteen orthodontists were invited to participate in a cost-effectiveness study. Each orthodontist was asked to provide information on 100 consecutively treated patients. The Index of Complexity, Outcome, and Need (ICON) was used to assess treatment need, complexity, and outcome prior to, and on completion of, orthodontic treatment. The 18 orthodontists were ranked based on achieving a successful orthodontic outcome (ICON score less than or equal to 30) and the uncertainty in both the success rates and rankings was also quantified using confidence intervals. Successful outcomes were achieved in 62 per cent of the sample (range 19-94 per cent); four of the 18 orthodontists failed to achieve more than a 50 per cent success rate. In developing league tables, it is imperative that factors such as case mix are identified and accounted for in producing rankings. Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used to achieve this and to quantify uncertainty in the rankings produced. When case mix was taken into account, the four with low success rates were clearly not as good as the top four performing orthodontists. League tables can be valuable for the individual orthodontist, groups of orthodontists, payment/insurance agencies, and the public to enable informed choice for orthodontic provision but must be correctly constructed so that users can have confidence in them.

Background In this study we examined whether (1) the neighbourhood aspects of access to amenities, neighbourhood quality, neighbourhood disorder, and neighbourhood social cohesion are associated with people's self rated health, (2) these health effects reflect differences in socio-demographic composition and/or neighbourhood deprivation, and (3) the associations with the different aspects of the neighbourhood environment vary between men and women. Methods Data from the cross-sectional Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey were analysed using multilevel modelling, with individuals nested within enumeration districts. In this study we used the responses of people under 75 years of age (n = 10,892). The response rate of this subgroup was 62.3%. All individual responses were geo-referenced to the 325 census enumeration districts of Caerphilly county borough. Results The neighbourhood attributes of poor access to amenities, poor neighbourhood quality, neighbourhood disorder, lack of social cohesion, and neighbourhood deprivation were associated with the reporting of poor health. These effects were attenuated when controlling for individual and collective socio-economic status. Lack of social cohesion significantly increased the odds of women reporting poor health, but did not increase the odds of men reporting poor health. In contrast, unemployment significantly affected men's health, but not women's health. Conclusion This study shows that different aspects of the neighbourhood environment are associated with people's self rated health, which may partly reflect the health impacts of neighbourhood socio-economic status. The findings further suggest that the social environment is more important for women's health, but that individual socio-economic status is more important for men's health.

Background Despite the increasing belief that the places where people live influence their health, there is surprisingly little consistent evidence for their associations with mental health. We investigated the joint effect of community and individual-level socio-economic deprivation and social cohesion on individual mental health status. Methods Multilevel analysis of population survey data on 10 653 adults aged 18–74 years nested within the 325 census enumeration districts in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK. The outcome measure was the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) subscale of the SF-36 instrument. A social cohesion subscale was derived from a factor analysis of responses to the Neighbourhood Cohesion scale and was modelled at individual and area level. Area income deprivation was measured by the percentage of low income households. Results Poor mental health was significantly associated with area-level income deprivation and low social cohesion after adjusting for individual risk factors. High social cohesion significantly modified the association between income deprivation and mental health: the difference between the predicted mean area mental health scores at the 10th and 90th centiles of the low income distribution was 3.7 in the low cohesion group and 0.9 in the high cohesion group (difference of the difference in means = 2.8, 95% CI: 0.2, 5.4). Conclusions Income deprivation and social cohesion measured at community level are potentially important joint determinants of mental health. Further research on the impact of the social environment on mental health should investigate causal pathways in a longitudinal study.

Objectives: We do not know how representative reported levels of resistance to antibiotics in urinary tract infections (UTIs) are as there is wide variation in the rate of urine specimens submitted to microbiology laboratories by general practices. We used a questionnaire to investigate variation in sampling for patients with suspected UTI to explore any systematic bias that may influence interpretation of surveillance data based on routine data. Methods: We sent a questionnaire to a stratified random sample of general practitioners (GPs) in Wales for self-completion. The GPs were presented with six clinical scenarios and asked about their proposed clinical management. Results: We found that nearly all of the GPs indicated they would request a specimen for scenarios representing a probable UTI in a female child and a probable asymptomatic UTI in pregnancy. There was some variation between the GPs about sampling in a situation of treatment failure in an older woman and recurrent UTI in a male diabetic, with 90% and 81%, respectively, indicating they would request a specimen for these scenarios. The greatest variation was in relation to scenarios concerning the management of a probable uncomplicated UTI, and early patient symptoms with pressure to prescribe, with 56% and 33% of GPs, respectively, indicating they would request a urine specimen for laboratory analysis. Conclusions: In the light of this reported sampling behaviour, it is likely that there is a systematic bias in surveillance data based on routinely collected data, with samples from cases of uncomplicated UTI being under represented, potentially leading to an overestimation of true resistance rates.