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The trends in incidence of lung cancer in never smokers are unclear as well as the significance of risk factors. We studied time trends in the incidence and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers in Finland in a large, pooled cohort. We pooled data from seven Finnish health cohorts from the period between 1972 and 2015 with 106 193 never smokers. The harmonized risk factors included education, alcohol consumption, physical activity, height, and BMI. We retrieved incident lung cancers from the nation-wide Finnish Cancer Registry. We estimated average annual percent change (AAPC) and the effects of risk factors on cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer using Poisson regression. We detected 47 lung cancers in never smoking men (n = 31 859) and 155 in never smoking women (n = 74 334). The AAPC of lung cancer incidence was -3.30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.68% - -0.88%, P = 0.009) in never smoking men and 0.00% (95% CI: -1.57%-1.60%, P = 0.996) in never smoking women. Of the five studied risk factors only greater height in women had a statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer (multivariate HR = 1.84, 95%CI: 1.08-3.12). It is plausible that tobacco control measures focused on working places have reduced passive smoking among men more than among women, which could explain the declining trend in lung cancer incidence in never smoker men but not in never smoker women. As tobacco control measures have not been targeted to domestic environments, it is likely that women's exposure to passive smoking has continued longer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Tobacco smoke is a known carcinogen, but the magnitude of smoking-related cancer risk depends on country-specific, generational smoking patterns. We quantified cancer risk in relation to smoking in a population-based cohort, the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009) in New South Wales, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) by self-reported smoking history at baseline (2006-2009) for incident, primary cancers via linkage to cancer registry data to 2013 and cancer death data to 2015. Among 229 028 participants aged ≥45 years, 18 475 cancers and 5382 cancer deaths occurred. Current-smokers had increased risks of all cancers combined (HR = 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.51), cancers of the lung (HR = 17.66, 95%CI, 14.65-21.29), larynx (HR = 11.29, 95%CI, 5.49-23.20), head-and-neck (HR = 2.53, 95%CI, 1.87-3.41), oesophagus (HR = 3.84, 95%CI, 2.33-6.35), liver (HR = 4.07, 95%CI, 2.55-6.51), bladder (HR = 3.08, 95%CI, 2.00-4.73), pancreas (HR = 2.68, 95%CI, 1.93-3.71), colorectum (HR = 1.31, 95%CI, 1.09-1.57) and unknown primary site (HR = 3.26, 95%CI, 2.19-4.84) versus never-smokers. Hazards increased with increasing smoking intensity; compared to never-smokers, lung cancer HR = 9.22 (95%CI, 5.14-16.55) for 1-5 cigarettes/day and 38.61 (95%CI, 25.65-58.13) for >35 cigarettes/day. Lung cancer risk was lower with quitting at any age but remained higher than never-smokers for quitters aged >25y. By age 80y, an estimated 48.3% of current-smokers (41.1% never-smokers) will develop cancer, and 14% will develop lung cancer, including 7.7% currently smoking 1-5 cigarettes/day and 26.4% for >35 cigarettes/day (1.0% never-smokers). Cancer risk for Australian smokers is significant, even for 'light' smokers. These contemporary estimates underpin the need for continued investment in strategies to prevent smoking uptake and facilitate cessation, which remain key to reducing cancer morbidity and mortality worldwide.

Background: Estimates of future burden of cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. We quantified future head and neck cancer burden in Australia attributable to individual and joint causal exposures, and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. Methods: We estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and head and neck cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models from pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries and estimated exposure prevalence from the 2017 to 2018 Australian National Health Survey. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Results: Contemporary levels of current and former smoking contribute 30.6% (95% CI, 22.7%–37.8%), alcohol consumption exceeding two standard drinks per day 12.9% (95% CI, 7.6%–17.9%), and these exposures jointly 38.5% (95% CI, 31.1%–45.0%) to the future head and neck cancer burden. Alcohol-attributable burden is triple and smoking-attributable burden is double for men compared with women. Smoking-attributable burden is also at least double for those consuming more than two alcoholic drinks daily or doing less than 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity weekly, and for those aged under 65 years, unmarried, with low or intermediate educational attainment or lower socioeconomic status, compared with their counterparts. Conclusions: Two-fifths of head and neck cancers in Australia are preventable by investment in tobacco and alcohol control. Impact: Targeting men and other identified high-burden subgroups can help to reduce head and neck cancer burden disparities.

Colon cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in women in Norway, where incidence rates of colon cancer increased 3-fold between 1955 and 2014, for unknown reasons. We aimed to assess the burden of colon cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Norwegian women using the data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) study. Self-reported information from 35 525 women from the NOWAC study were available. These included the following exposures: smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical activity, intake of calcium, fibers, and red and processed meat. Colon cancer cases were identified from the Cancer Registry of Norway. A parametric piecewise constant hazards model was used to estimate the strength of exposure-cancer associations. Population attributable fractions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated considering competing risk of death. The fraction of incident colon cancer attributable to ever smoking was 18.7% (95% CI 4.7%-30.6%), low physical activity 10.8% (95% CI −0.7% to 21.0%), alcohol consumption 14.5% (95% CI −2.8% to 28.9%), and low intake of calcium 10.0% (95% CI −7.8% to 24.8%). A small proportion of colon cancer cases was attributable to combined intake of red and processed meat over 500 g/week, overweight/obesity, and low intake of fibers. Jointly, these seven risk factors could explain 46.0% (95% CI 23.0%-62.4%) of the colon cancer incidence burden. Between 23% and 62% of the colon cancer burden among women in Norway was attributable to modifiable risk factors, indicating an important preventive potential of a healthy lifestyle.

Thyroid cancer incidence and the prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing, but the future thyroid cancer burden attributable to contemporary levels of overweight and obesity has not been evaluated before. We quantified this burden in Australia, and assessed whether the overweight/obesity-attributable burden differed by sex or other population subgroupings. We estimated the strength of the associations of overweight and obesity with thyroid cancer with adjusted proportional hazards models using pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N=367,058) with 431 thyroid cancer cases ascertained from linked national cancer registry data during a maximum 22-year follow-up. We combined these estimates with nationally representative 2017-2018 estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence to estimate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) of future thyroid cancers attributable to overweight and obesity, accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Contemporary levels of overweight and obesity explain 18.6% (95%CI=5.2%-30.2%), and obesity alone 13.7% (95%CI=5.2%-21.4%), of the future thyroid cancer burden. The obesity-attributable thyroid cancer burden is 21.4% (95%CI=2.8%-36.5%) for men and 10.1% (95%CI=0.8%-18.6%) for women. Were the currently obese overweight instead, 9.9% (95%CI=1.0%-18.1%) of thyroid cancers could be avoided. The relative overweight/obesity-attributable burden is higher for those consuming on average more than two alcoholic drinks per day (63.4%) and for those who are not married/co-habiting (33.2%). In conclusion, avoiding excess weight, especially obesity, should be a priority for thyroid cancer prevention. Further studies, with findings stratified by tumour size, may reveal the potential role of overdiagnosis in our results. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

There is limited evidence for any dietary factor, except alcohol, in breast cancer (BC) risk. Therefore, studies on a whole diet, using diet quality indices, can broaden our insight. We examined associations of the Nordic Diet (mNDI), Mediterranean diet (mMEDI) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI) with postmenopausal BC risk. Five Finnish cohorts were combined including 6374 postmenopausal women with dietary information. In all, 8–9 dietary components were aggregated in each index, higher total score indicating higher adherence to a healthy diet. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the combined hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk. During an average 10-year follow-up period, 274 incident postmenopausal BC cases were diagnosed. In multivariable models, the HR for highest vs. lowest quintile of index was 0.67 (95 %CI 0.48–1.01) for mNDI, 0.88 (0.59–1.30) for mMEDI and 0.89 (0.60–1.32) for mAHEI. In this combined dataset, a borderline preventive finding of high adherence to mNDI on postmenopausal BC risk was found. Of the indices, mNDI was more based on the local food culture than the others. Although a healthy diet has beneficially been related to several chronic diseases, the link with the etiology of postmenopausal BC does not seem to be that obvious.

There is a lack of tangible measures for directed public health action to halt the increase in weight and cancer. We estimated the fraction and preventable cases of all and major body fatness-related cancers attributable to 7-years weight gain (≥ 2 kg). We assessed validated self-reported anthropometrics from 44,114 women aged 34–49 years at the enrolment in 1991–1992 and from a second questionnaire in 1998, with follow-up through December 31, 2015. Over 18 years, 3216 body fatness-related cancers and 2041 deaths were reported. Nearly 70% of women experienced weight gain and the average weight change was 4 kg. We observed a substantial proportional impact of weight gain on pancreatic cancer with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 41.8% (95% CI 8.1–63.1) and a high absolute impact on postmenopausal breast cancer with 4403 preventable cases (95% CI 1064–7299) and a PAF of 16.8% (95% CI 4.1–27.8), and colorectal cancer with 3857 preventable cases (95% CI 1313–5990) and a PAF of 22.6% (95% CI 7.7–35.1). Avoiding weight gain over seven years in middle adulthood could have prevented a considerable proportion of the cancer burden and thousands of cancer cases in women in Norway.

Background With the prevalence of cancer survivors increasing, their unique needs must be better understood. We examined the health, lifestyles and social circumstances of adults with and without a history of cancer. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study, using exposure and outcome data from the baseline survey (2006–2009) of participants in the 45 and Up Study, a prospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia. We compared 20,811 cancer registry-verified adult cancer survivors with 207,148 participants without a history of cancer using propensity score weighting and accounting for multiple testing. The propensity weighting included age, sociodemographic factors and number of self-reported co-morbidities. Results Cancer survivors were more likely to report poorer physical and psychological health and quality of life compared to those without a cancer history, with most deficits still evident more than 10 years after cancer diagnosis. Cancer survivors were more likely to have a higher body mass index, but were less likely to smoke. Cancer survivors had greater functional limitations, including sexual, and were less likely to work full time, volunteer and spend time outdoors. Their social connectedness was, however, similar. Those with haematological cancer, lung cancer, or distant metastases, and those diagnosed at an older age, had the greatest health deficits and functional limitations. Conclusions A history of cancer is associated with poorer health and less paid and unpaid work. Our findings reinforce the importance of routine long-term, integrated multidisciplinary care for cancer survivors and indicate the subgroups with the greatest unmet needs.

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, transethnic and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%) and Hispanic (19%) populations (N = 78 199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P

Substantial changes in the prevalence of the principal kidney and bladder cancer risk factors, smoking (both cancers) and body fatness (kidney cancer), have occurred but the contemporary cancer burden attributable to these factors has not been evaluated. We quantified the kidney and bladder cancer burden attributable to individual and joint exposures and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries and estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative contemporaneous health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10‐year follow‐up, 550 kidney and 530 bladder cancers were diagnosed and over 21,000 people died from any cause. Current levels of overweight and obesity explain 28.8% (CI = 17.3–38.7%), current or past smoking 15.5% (CI = 6.0–24.1%) and these exposures jointly 39.6% (CI = 27.5–49.7%) of the kidney cancer burden. Current or past smoking explains 44.4% (CI = 35.4–52.1%) of the bladder cancer burden, with 24.4% attributable to current smoking. Ever smoking explains more than half (53.4%) of the bladder cancer burden in men, and the burden potentially preventable by quitting smoking is highest in men (30.4%), those aged 2 standard alcoholic drinks/day (41.2%). In conclusion, large fractions of kidney and bladder cancers in Australia are preventable by behavior change. Cancer Institute New South Wales, NHMRC, Ageing and Alzheimer's Institute, Cancer Council Victoria, VicHealth

Background The relationship between comorbid disease and health service use and risk of cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) is uncertain. Methods A prospective cohort of 266,724 people aged 45 years and over in New South Wales, Australia. Baseline questionnaire data were linked to cancer registration, health service records 4–27 months prior to diagnosis, and mortality data. We compared individuals with incident registry-notified CUP (n = 327; 90% C80) to two sets of randomly selected controls (3:1): (i) incident metastatic cancer of known primary site (n = 977) and (ii) general cohort population (n = 981). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In fully adjusted models incorporating sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, people with cancer registry-notified CUP were more likely to have fair compared with excellent self-rated overall health (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.01–3.14) and less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24−0.97) than those registered with metastatic cancer of known primary. Compared to general cohort population controls, people registered with CUP were more likely to have poor rather than excellent self-rated overall health (OR 6.22, 95% CI 1.35–28.6), less likely to self-report anxiety (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.12−0.63), and more likely to have a history of diabetes (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.15–3.10) or cancer (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03–2.57). Neither tertiary nor community-based health service use independently predicted CUP risk. Conclusion Low self-rated health may be a flag for undiagnosed cancer, and an investigation of its clinical utility in primary care appears warranted.

Background Little is known about the risk factors for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP). We examined the demographic, social and lifestyle risk factors for CUP in a prospective cohort of 266,724 people aged 45 years and over in New South Wales, Australia. Methods Baseline questionnaire data were linked to cancer registration, hospitalisation, emergency department admission, and mortality data. We compared individuals with incident cancer registry-notified CUP (n = 327) to two sets of controls randomly selected (3:1) using incidence density sampling with replacement: (i) incident cancer registry-notified metastatic cancer of known primary site (n = 977) and (ii) general cohort population (n = 981). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In a fully adjusted model incorporating self-rated overall health and comorbidity, people diagnosed with CUP were more likely to be older (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04–1.07 per year) and more likely to have low educational attainment (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.24–2.53) than those diagnosed with metastatic cancer of known primary. Similarly, compared to general cohort population controls, people diagnosed with CUP were older (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08–1.12 per year), of low educational attainment (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.08–2.64), and current (OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.81–6.47) or former (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.33–2.86) smokers. Conclusion The consistent association with educational attainment suggests low health literacy may play a role in CUP diagnosis. These findings highlight the need to develop strategies to achieve earlier identification of diagnostically challenging malignancies in people with low health literacy.

Iatrogenic immunosuppression is a strong risk factor for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) but the dose-related association between individual immunosuppressive agents and NHL risk is unknown. We conducted a population-based cohort study of 4131 adult Australian liver, heart and lung transplant recipients (1984-2006). We ascertained NHL incidence by probabilistic record linkage between transplant registries and the Australian Cancer Database, and abstracted risk factor data at transplantation and at regular intervals thereafter from medical records. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for early (

Objective Evidence on the endometrial and ovarian cancer burden preventable through modifications to current causal behavioural and hormonal exposures is limited. Whether the burden differs by population subgroup is unknown. Methods We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies to national cancer and death registries, and quantified exposure-cancer associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We then calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Results During a median 4.9 years follow-up, 510 incident endometrial and 303 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Overweight and obesity explained 41.9% (95% CI 32.3–50.1) of the endometrial cancer burden and obesity alone 34.5% (95% CI 27.5–40.9). This translates to 12,800 and 10,500 endometrial cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. The body fatness-related endometrial cancer burden was highest (49–87%) among women with diabetes, living remotely, of older age, lower socio-economic status or educational attainment and born in Australia. Never use of oral contraceptives (OCs) explained 8.1% (95% CI 1.8–14.1) or 2500 endometrial cancers. A higher BMI and current long-term MHT use increased, and long-term OC use decreased, the risk of ovarian cancer, but the burden attributable to overweight, obesity or exogenous hormonal factors was not statistically significant. Conclusions Excess body fatness, a trait that is of high and increasing prevalence globally, is responsible for a large proportion of the endometrial cancer burden, indicating the need for effective strategies to reduce adiposity.

Background Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) is a late-stage malignancy with poor prognosis, but we know little about what diagnostic tests and procedures people with CUP receive prior to diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to determine how health service utilisation prior to diagnosis for people with cancer-registry notified CUP differs from those notified with metastatic cancer of known primary. Methods We identified people with a cancer registry notification of CUP (n = 327) from the 45 and Up Study, a prospective cohort of 266,724 people ≥45 years in New South Wales, Australia, matched with up to three controls with a diagnosis of metastatic cancer of known primary (n = 977). Baseline questionnaire data were linked to population health data to identify all health service use, diagnostic tests, and procedures in the month of diagnosis and 3 months prior. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results After adjusting for age and educational attainment, people with a cancer-registry notified CUP diagnosis were more likely to be an aged care resident (OR = 2.78, 95%CI 1.37–5.63), have an emergency department visit (OR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.23–2.21), serum tumor marker tests (OR = 1.51, 95%CI 1.12–2.04), or a cytology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 2.01, 95%CI 1.47–2.76), and less likely to have a histopathology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 0.43, 95%CI 0.31–0.59). Neither general practitioner, specialist, allied health practitioner or nurse consultations, hospitalisations, nor imaging procedures were associated with a CUP diagnosis. Conclusions The health service and diagnostic pathway to diagnosis differs markedly for people notified with CUP compared to those with metastatic cancer of known primary. While these differences may indicate missed opportunities for earlier detection and appropriate management, for some patients they may be clinically appropriate.

Background Knowledge of preventable disease and differences in disease burden can inform public health action to improve health and health equity. We quantified the future lung cancer burden preventable by behavioural modifications across Australia. Methods We pooled seven Australian cohort studies (n = 367 058) and linked them to national registries to identify lung cancers and deaths. We estimated population attributable fractions and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for modifiable risk factors, using risk estimates from the cohort data and risk factor exposure distribution from contemporary national health surveys. Results During the first 10-year follow-up, there were 2025 incident lung cancers and 20 349 deaths. Stopping current smoking could prevent 53.7% (95% CI, 50.0–57.2%) of lung cancers over 40 years and 18.3% (11.0–25.1%) in 10 years. The smoking-attributable burden is highest in males, those who smoke

Background Most cohort studies investigating the effect of immunosuppression on transplant outcomes use drugs at first hospital discharge. We evaluated the extent of drug exposure misclassification and its impact on outcome prediction. Methods We retrospectively collected longitudinal immunosuppression data, at discharge and at 1, 5, 10, and 15 years after transplantation, and outcomes for solid organ transplant recipients 1984-2006 (n = 3133). We compared the risk of death from exposure to individual immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporine, tacrolimus, azathioprine, and mycophenolate) and dual therapies, as defined by discharge only vs longitudinal immunosuppression data, using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results During a median follow-up of 5.2 years, immunosuppressive drugs were altered for 947 (30%) recipients and 955 recipients died. Longitudinal receipt of cyclosporine and azathioprine were associated with an increased risk (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.89, and HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.00-1.80), and mycophenolate with a reduced risk (HR 0.35, 0.16-0.78), of death. Recipients on mycophenolate and tacrolimus dual therapy had a lower risk of death compared to those on azathioprine and cyclosporine dual therapy (HR 0.30, 0.10-0.93). The increased risk of death associated with the receipt of cyclosporine or azathioprine was not shown in the analyses based on drugs allocated at discharge, and all of the associations between immunosuppressive regimens and death were strengthened in the analyses based on longitudinal immunosuppression data. Conclusions Cohort findings based on immunosuppressive drugs allocated at discharge should be interpreted with caution due to potential exposure misclassification. The use of granular, longitudinal data on immunosuppressive regimens could improve prediction.

FTO is the strongest known genetic susceptibility locus for obesity. Experimental studies in animals suggest the potential roles of FTO in regulating food intake. The interactive relation among FTO variants, dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) is complex and results from previous often small-scale studies in humans are highly inconsistent. We performed large-scale analyses based on data from 177 330 adults (154 439 Whites, 5776 African Americans and 17 115 Asians) from 40 studies to examine: (i) the association between the FTO-rs9939609 variant (or a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism) and total energy and macronutrient intake and (ii) the interaction between the FTO variant and dietary intake on BMI. The minor allele (A-allele) of the FTO-rs9939609 variant was associated with higher BMI in Whites (effect per allele = 0.34 [0.31, 0.37] kg/m2, P = 1.9 × 10-105), and all participants (0.30 [0.30, 0.35] kg/m2, P = 3.6 × 10-107). The BMI-increasing allele of the FTO variant showed a significant association with higher dietary protein intake (effect per allele = 0.08 [0.06, 0.10] %, P = 2.4 × 10-16), and relative weak associations with lower total energy intake (-6.4 [-10.1, -2.6] kcal/day, P = 0.001) and lower dietary carbohydrate intake (-0.07 [-0.11, -0.02] %, P = 0.004). The associations with protein (P = 7.5 × 10-9) and total energy (P = 0.002) were attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for BMI. We did not find significant interactions between the FTO variant and dietary intake of total energy, protein, carbohydrate or fat on BMI. Our findings suggest a positive association between the BMI-increasing allele of FTO variant and higher dietary protein intake and offer insight into potential link between FTO, dietary protein intake and adiposity FTO is the strongest known genetic susceptibility locus for obesity. Experimental studies in animals suggest the potential roles of FTO in regulating food intake. The interactive relation among FTO variants, dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) is complex and results from previous often small-scale studies in humans are highly inconsistent. We performed large-scale analyses based on data from 177,330 adults (154 439 Whites, 5776 African Americans and 17 115 Asians) from 40 studies to examine: (i) the association between the FTO-rs9939609 variant (or a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism) and total energy and macronutrient intake and (ii) the interaction between the FTO variant and dietary intake on BMI. The minor allele (A-allele) of the FTO-rs9939609 variant was associated with higher BMI in Whites (effect per allele = 0.34 [0.31, 0.37] kg/m(2), P = 1.9 × 10(-105)), and all participants (0.30 [0.30, 0.35] kg/m(2), P = 3.6 × 10(-107)). The BMI-increasing allele of the FTO variant showed a significant association with higher dietary protein intake (effect per allele = 0.08 [0.06, 0.10] %, P = 2.4 × 10(-16)), and relative weak associations with lower total energy intake (-6.4 [-10.1, -2.6] kcal/day, P = 0.001) and lower dietary carbohydrate intake (-0.07 [-0.11, -0.02] %, P = 0.004). The associations with protein (P = 7.5 × 10(-9)) and total energy (P = 0.002) were attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for BMI. We did not find significant interactions between the FTO variant and dietary intake of total energy, protein, carbohydrate or fat on BMI. Our findings suggest a positive association between the BMI-increasing allele of FTO variant and higher dietary protein intake and offer insight into potential link between FTO, dietary protein intake and adiposity.

Objective Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. Method In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3–7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Results Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Conclusion Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

Choice of optimal treatment length for psychiatric patients requires knowledge about the patients' pre-treatment suitability. This study compares the prediction of seven psychological suitability measures on changes in psychiatric symptoms in short- and long-term psychotherapy over a 3-year follow-up. The psychological suitability of 326 outpatients from the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, aged 20-46 years, and suffering from mood or anxiety disorders, was assessed at baseline using the Suitability for Psychotherapy Scale (SPS) before randomly assigning them to solution-focused therapy, short-term or long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. Psychiatric symptoms (Symptom Checklist-90 Global Severity Index) were assessed at baseline and seven times during follow-up. Three patient groups with different prognosis were found when a cumulative SPS score, summing up the values of the seven single suitability measures, was used to predict symptom development: patients with more good (4 or more) than poor values benefited more from short-term therapy, patients with more poor (4-6) than good values benefited more from long-term therapy, and patients with all seven values poor failed to benefit from either short- or long-term therapy. The SPS can apparently be applied before the start of treatment to predict the amount of therapy patients need to recover, although its suitability in therapies of different types needs to be confirmed.

OBJECTIVE Obesity, particularly visceral adiposity, is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The commonly used obesity indicators, BMI, waist girth, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), have limited ability to measure the visceral adipose tissue. Sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been shown to predict the amount of visceral fat. So far no study has been published on its ability to predict diabetes occurrence. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We assessed and compared the prediction of the four obesity indicators for diabetes incidence in a prospective study based on 5,168 participants from the nationally representative Health 2000 study. RESULTS During a mean follow-up lasting 8.1 years, 222 incident diabetes cases occurred. In multivariate models adjusted for lifestyle factors, BMI, waist girth, WHR, and SAD were significant predictors of diabetes incidence. The relative risks (95% CI) between high and low levels were 15.0 (6.94–32.6), 11.4 (5.39–23.8), 12.5 (6.47–24.2), and 14.7 (6.89–31.2), respectively. Pairwise interaction analysis showed that the co-occurrence of high BMI and high SAD was associated with the highest diabetes incidence, with a relative risk of 37.0 (11.2–122). After adjustment for waist girth and the components of the metabolic syndrome, the relative risk was 9.88 (2.81–34.7). The corresponding population-attributable fraction estimate was 84% (49–95). CONCLUSIONS The combination of SAD and BMI measurements yields a new predictor of diabetes incidence.

Background Socio-demographic factors predict the outcome of short-term psychotherapy (STT) in the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders, but information on the prediction for long long-term therapy (LPP) is lacking. We aimed to compare the prediction of changes in psychiatric symptoms afforded by socio-demographic factors across two treatment conditions, short- versus long-term psychotherapy. Methods In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 outpatients with mood or anxiety disorders, aged 20–46 years, were randomly assigned to STT or LPP. Socio-demographic factors (i.e. age, gender, education, employment status, marital status, and living arrangement) were self-reported. Psychiatric symptoms were measured by the Symptom Check List, Global Severity Index (SCL-90-GSI) and Anxiety scale (SCL-90-Anx), and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) at baseline and seven times during a three-year follow-up period. Results Socio-demographic factors were found to predict symptom development during follow-up irrespective of the baseline symptom level. Patients in a relatively good position, i.e. married and highly educated patients benefited from STT, whereas patients in less advantaged positions, i.e. homemakers, lone parents, and divorced patients needed LPP or did not benefit from either therapy. In several categories of socio-demographic factors, the extent to which a patient's background predicted the outcome of the psychotherapy varied according to whether general, anxiety or depressive symptoms were studied. Limitations We were unable to assess widows and pensioners. For ethical reasons, a no-treatment control group with a long follow-up could not be included in the study design. Conclusions Socio-demographic factors may need to be considered in the selection of patients for short- and long-term therapy.

This study compares the effectiveness of solution-focused therapy (SFT) and short- and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (SPP and LPP) on self-concept during a 3-year follow-up. Altogether, 326 patients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to SFT, SPP, and LPP in the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study. Outcome was assessed using the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior questionnaire at baseline and 7, 12, 24, and 36 months after. Overall, during the first year of follow-up, self-concept improved more in both SFT and SPP than in LPP, indicated by the primary outcome indicators self-directed affiliation (AF) and self-directed autonomy, as well as by most of the eight secondary cluster scores. After the 3-year follow-up, LPP was more effective than SFT in AF and in the cluster scores self-affirm, self-blame, and self-neglect, whereas no difference was noted between LPP and SPP. Long duration and psychodynamic orientation of therapy may be beneficial for self-concept improvement.

ObjectivePatient's pre-treatment suitability for short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (STPP) and solution-focused therapy (SFT) has not been compared. The aim of this study was to compare the prediction of psychological suitability measures on outcome of STPP vs. SFT.MethodAltogether 198 patients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to STPP or SFT. A 7-item Suitability for Psychotherapy Scale (SPS) was assessed at baseline and a cumulative SPS score was formed. Psychiatric symptoms were measured using SCL-90-GSI at baseline and seven times during a 3-year follow-up.ResultsThe SPS score predicted the outcome of both short-term psychotherapies; for patients with a good score short-term therapies seemed beneficial, whereas for patients with a poor score they did not seem sufficient. There was no difference between STPP and SFT in the prediction of the SPS score.ConclusionsPsychological suitability measures may apparently be useful in the prediction of overall short-term psychotherapy outcomes.

Background The need for treatment is, despite of its obvious usefulness, a scarcely used measure of effectiveness in psychotherapy trials. This study considers changes in the need for auxiliary psychiatric treatment after starting short- and long-term psychotherapy and psychoanalysis. Methods Altogether 326 psychiatric outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomly assigned to solution-focused therapy (SFT), short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (SPP), or long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (LPP) while 41 self-selected patients were allocated to psychoanalysis (PA). The patients were followed for 5 years from start of treatment. Outcome measures were use of auxiliary psychotherapy, psychotropic medication, and hospitalization for mental reasons. Results About 60% of the patients used auxiliary treatment during the follow-up. It was most common in the short-term therapy groups and its incidence was highest during the first year after the start of therapy. The average numbers of all therapy sessions among patients starting the therapy were 60, 70, 240, and 670 in SFT, SPP, LPP, and PA, respectively, whereas the corresponding average numbers of study therapy sessions alone were 10, 19, 232, and 646. Over 50% of the patients receiving short-term therapy received on average 4–6 times more therapy sessions than initially assigned. Limitations Post-randomization withdrawal was uneven. Conclusions Auxiliary treatment is usual among patients receiving short- and long-term therapies, and apparently becomes common shortly after the start of treatment. Auxiliary treatment can be used as an outcome measure indicating the need for treatment, should be monitored clinically and considered when interpreting the results of effectiveness studies.

Quantification of the impact of exposure to modifiable risk factors on a particular outcome at the population level is a fundamental public health issue. In cohort studies, the population attributable fraction (PAF) is used to assess the proportion of the outcome that is attributable to exposure to certain risk factors in a given population during a certain time interval. This is done by combining information about the prevalence of the risk factor in the population with estimates of the strength of the association between the risk factor and the outcome. In case of mortality, the PAF demonstrates what proportion of mortality can be delayed during the given follow-up time. However, literature on carrying out model-based estimation of PAF and its variance in cohort studies while properly taking follow-up time into account is still scarce. In this article, the authors present formulas for estimation of PAF, its variance, and its confidence interval using the piecewise constant hazards model and apply a SAS macro created for the estimation of PAF (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina) to estimate the mortality attributable to some common risk factors.

Lifestyle factors predict type 2 diabetes occurrence, but their effect in high- and low-risk populations is poorly known. This study determines the prediction of low-risk lifestyle on type 2 diabetes in those with and without metabolic syndrome in a pooled sample of two representative Finnish cohorts, collected in 1978-1980 and 2000-2001. Altogether 8,627 individuals, aged 40-79 years, and free of diabetes and cardiovascular disease at baseline were included in this study. A low-risk lifestyle was defined based on body mass index, exercise, alcohol consumption, smoking, and serum vitamin D concentration. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the International Diabetes Federation including obesity, blood pressure, serum HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides, and fasting glucose. During a 10-year follow-up, altogether 226 type 2 diabetes cases occurred. Overweight was the strongest predictor of type 2 diabetes (population attributable fraction (PAF) = 77%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 53, 88%). Together with lack of exercise, unsatisfactory alcohol consumption, smoking, and low vitamin D concentration it explained 82% of the cases. Altogether 62% (CI: 47, 73%) of the cases were attributable to the metabolic syndrome and 92% (CI: 67, 98%) to the most unfavourable combination of its components. The metabolic syndrome did not modify the prediction of lifestyle factors but persons with normal blood pressure benefited more from positive changes in exercise, alcohol consumption, and smoking than those with elevated blood pressure (P for interaction = 0.01). In conclusion, modification of lifestyle factors apparently reduces type 2 diabetes risk, especially in persons with normal blood pressure.

Studies on the association between plant foods and cerebrovascular diseases have given contradictory results suggesting the existence of some effect-modifying factors. The present study determines whether the consumption of plant foods (i.e. fruits and berries, vegetables, and cereals) predicts a decreased cerebrovascular disease incidence in a population with low fruit and vegetable and high wholegrain intake. This cohort study on 3932 men and women was based on data from the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey, conducted in 1968–72. The participants were 40–74 years of age and free of cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Data on the plant food consumption were derived from a 1-year dietary history interview. During a 24-year follow-up 625 cases of cerebrovascular diseases occurred, leading to either hospitalisation or death. An inverse association was found between fruit consumption and the incidence of cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage. The adjusted relative risks (RR) between the highest and lowest quartiles of intake of any cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage were 0·75 (95 % CI 0·59, 0·94), 0·73 (95 % CI 0·54, 1·00) and 0·47 (95 % CI 0·24, 0·92), respectively. These associations were primarily due to the consumption of citrus fruits and occurred only in men. Total consumption of vegetables or cereals was not associated with the cerebrovascular disease incidence. The consumption of cruciferous vegetables, however, predicted a reduced risk of cerebrovascular diseases (RR 0·79; 95 % CI 0·63, 0·99), ischaemic stroke (RR 0·67; 95 % CI 0·49, 0·92) and intracerebral haemorrhage (RR 0·49; 95 % CI 0·25, 0·98). In conclusion, the consumption of fruits, especially citrus, and cruciferous vegetables may protect against cerebrovascular diseases.

Low vitamin D status has been suggested as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Although the epidemiologic evidence is scarce, 2 recent studies have suggested an association. The present study investigated the relation of serum vitamin D with type 2 diabetes incidence using pooled data from these 2 cohorts.Two nested case-control studies, collected by the Finnish Mobile Clinic in 1973-1980, were pooled for analysis. The study populations consisted of men and women aged 40-74 years and free of diabetes at baseline. During a follow-up period of 22 years, 412 incident type 2 diabetes cases occurred, and 986 controls were selected by individual matching. Serum vitamin D (serum 25(OH)D) was determined from frozen samples, stored at baseline. Pooled estimates of the relationship between serum vitamin D concentration and type 2 diabetes incidence were calculated.Men had higher serum vitamin D concentrations than women and showed a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes in their highest vitamin D quartile. The relative odds between the highest and lowest quartiles was 0.28 (95% confidence interval = 0.10-0.81) in men and 1.14 (0.60-2.17) in women after adjustment for smoking, body mass index, physical activity, and education.The results support the hypothesis that high vitamin D status provides protection against type 2 diabetes. Residual confounding may contribute to this association.

Background Insufficient evidence exists about the effect of different therapies on work ability for patients with psychiatric disorders. The present study compares improvements in work ability in two short-term therapies and one long-term therapy. Methods In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 outpatients with depressive or anxiety disorder were randomly assigned to long-term and short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy. The patients were followed for 3 years from the start of treatment. Primary outcome measures were the Work Ability Index (WAI), the Work-subscale (SAS-Work) of the Social Adjustment Scale (SAS-SR), Perceived Psychological Functioning Scale, the prevalence of patients employed or studying, and the number of sick-leave days. Results Work ability was statistically significantly improved according to WAI (15%), SAS-Work (17%), and Perceived Psychological Functioning Scale (21%) during the 3-year follow-up. No differences in the work ability scores were found between two short-term therapies. The short-term therapies showed 4–11% more improved work ability scores than long-term therapy at the 7 month follow-up point. During the second year of follow-up, no significant differences were found between therapies. After 3 years of follow-up, long-term therapy was more effective than the short-term therapies with 5–12% more improved scores. No differences in the prevalence of individuals employed or studying or in the number of sick-leave days were found between therapies during follow-up. Conclusions Short-term therapies give benefits more quickly than long-term therapy on work ability but in the long run long-term therapy is more effective than short-term therapies. More research is needed to confirm these findings.

To examine the prediction of coffee consumption on the incidence of Parkinson's disease. The study population comprised 6710 men and women, aged 50–79 years and free from Parkinson's disease at the baseline. At baseline, enquiries were made about coffee consumption in a self-administered questionnaire as the average number of cups per day. During a 22-year follow-up, 101 incident cases of Parkinson's disease occurred. Parkinson's disease cases were identified through a nationwide registry of patients receiving medication reimbursement, which is based on certificates from neurologist. After adjustments for age, sex, marital status, education, community density, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, body mass index, hypertension and serum cholesterol, the relative risk for subjects drinking 10 or more cups of coffee per day compared with non-drinkers was 0.26 (95% confidence interval 0.07–0.99, P-value for trend=0.18). The association was stronger among overweight persons and among persons with lower serum cholesterol level (P-value for interaction=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). The results support the hypothesis that coffee consumption reduces the risk of Parkinson's disease, but protective effect of coffee may vary by exposure to other factors.

Unconfounded comparative data on the type and dose of immunosuppressive agents among solid organ transplant recipients are sparse, as are data on longitudinal immunosuppressive therapy since transplantation. We addressed this issue in a population-based cohort of Australian liver (n = 1895), heart (n = 1220), and lung (n = 1059) transplant recipients, 1984-2006. Data on immunosuppressive therapy were retrospectively collected at discharge, three months, and one, five, 10, and 15 yr after first transplant. We computed unadjusted and adjusted estimates for the association between the type and dose of immunosuppressive therapy and organ type. After adjustment for confounders, use of induction antibody and maintenance corticosteroids was more common in heart and lung compared to liver recipients (p < 0.001), and antibody therapy for rejection more common in liver recipients (p < 0.001). Liver recipients were more likely to receive calcineurin inhibitor monotherapy, with or without corticosteroids, compared to heart and lung recipients (p < 0.001). Liver recipients consistently received lower doses of azathioprine than heart and lung recipients (p < 0.001). These differences in immunosuppression may partly explain variations in immunosuppression-related morbidity by transplanted organ, for example, malignancy risk. Longitudinal changes in the type and the dose of immunosuppressive therapy over time since transplantation also demonstrate the need for time-dependent data in observational research.

To determine the monthly treatment costs for each element of cancer care in patients receiving chemotherapy and to apportion the burden of cost by financing agent (Commonwealth, State government, private health insurer, patient).A cohort of 478 patients (54% breast, 33% colorectal and 13% non-small-cell lung cancer) were recruited from 12 centers representing metropolitan and regional settings in public and private sectors. Primary data were linked to secondary data held in New South Wales state (Admitted Patients and Emergency Department Data) and Commonwealth (Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits) databases. The monthly treatment costs of each element of care and the funding agent were calculated from secondary health data.Across all tumor types, the mean monthly treatment cost was $4162 (10%-90% quantiles $1018-$8098; range $2853 [adjuvant colorectal] to $5622 [metastatic lung]), with 54% of this cost borne by Commonwealth government, 26% by private health insurers, 14% by State government and 6% by patients. The mean monthly costs of treating metastatic disease were $1415 greater than those for adjuvant therapy. The mean monthly costs were contributed to by inpatient care ($1657, 40%), chemotherapy prescriptions ($1502, 36%), outpatient care ($452, 11%) and administration of chemotherapy ($364, 9%).All four funders have a shared incentive to reduce absolute monthly treatment costs since their proportional contribution is relatively constant for most tumor types and stages. There are opportunities to reduce cancer care costs by minimizing the risk of inpatient hospital admissions that arise from chemotherapy administration and by recognizing incentives for cost-shifting.

PurposeTo estimate the Australian cancer burden attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors and their combinations using a novel population attributable fraction (PAF) method that accounts for competing risk of death, risk factor interdependence and statistical uncertainty.Participants365 173 adults from seven Australian cohort studies. We linked pooled harmonised individual participant cohort data with population-based cancer and death registries to estimate exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations. Current Australian exposure prevalence was estimated from representative external sources. To illustrate the utility of the new PAF method, we calculated fractions of cancers causally related to body fatness or both tobacco and alcohol consumption avoidable in the next 10 years by risk factor modifications, comparing them with fractions produced by traditional PAF methods.Findings to dateOver 10 years of follow-up, we observed 27 483 incident cancers and 22 078 deaths. Of cancers related to body fatness (n=9258), 13% (95% CI 11% to 16%) could be avoided if those currently overweight or obese had body mass index of 18.5–24.9 kg/m2. Of cancers causally related to both tobacco and alcohol (n=4283), current or former smoking explains 13% (11% to 16%) and consuming more than two alcoholic drinks per day explains 6% (5% to 8%). The two factors combined explain 16% (13% to 19%): 26% (21% to 30%) in men and 8% (4% to 11%) in women. Corresponding estimates using the traditional PAF method were 20%, 31% and 10%. Our PAF estimates translate to 74 000 avoidable body fatness-related cancers and 40 000 avoidable tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers in Australia over the next 10 years (2017–2026). Traditional PAF methods not accounting for competing risk of death and interdependence of risk factors may overestimate PAFs and avoidable cancers.Future plansWe will rank the most important causal factors and their combinations for a spectrum of cancers and inform cancer control activities.

Many cancer predisposition syndromes are rare or have incomplete penetrance, and traditional epidemiological tools are not well suited for their detection. Here we have used an approach that employs the entire population based data in the Finnish Cancer Registry (FCR) for analyzing familial aggregation of all types of cancer, in order to find evidence for previously unrecognized cancer susceptibility conditions. We performed a systematic clustering of 878,593 patients in FCR based on family name at birth, municipality of birth, and tumor type, diagnosed between years 1952 and 2011. We also estimated the familial occurrence of the tumor types using cluster score that reflects the proportion of patients belonging to the most significant clusters compared to all patients in Finland. The clustering effort identified 25,910 birth name-municipality based clusters representing 183 different tumor types characterized by topography and morphology. We produced information about familial occurrence of hundreds of tumor types, and many of the tumor types with high cluster score represented known cancer syndromes. Unexpectedly, Kaposi sarcoma (KS) also produced a very high score (cluster score 1.91, p-value

Economic variables such as income, education, and occupation are known to affect mortality and morbidity, such as cardiovascular disease, and have also been shown to be partly heritable. However, very little is known about which genes influence economic variables, although these genes may have both a direct and an indirect effect on health. We report results from the first large-scale collaboration that studies the molecular genetic architecture of an economic variable-entrepreneurship-that was operationalized using self-employment, a widely-available proxy. Our results suggest that common SNPs when considered jointly explain about half of the narrow-sense heritability of self-employment estimated in twin data (σg (2)/σP (2) = 25%, h (2) = 55%). However, a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies across sixteen studies comprising 50,627 participants did not identify genome-wide significant SNPs. 58 SNPs with p

To present an interview-based 7-item Suitability for Psychotherapy Scale (SPS) created to evaluate suitability for short- and long-term therapy, and to assess its reliability, validity, and prediction.Reliability of the SPS was evaluated by measuring both repeatability and agreement (cross-sectional design). Validity of the SPS was evaluated by measuring both criterion and discriminating validity (cross-sectional design). Prediction of the SPS was evaluated using a cohort study design.Suitability of 326 psychiatric outpatients from the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study was assessed at baseline with the SPS, and a summary score of the seven items was formed. Reliability of the SPS was evaluated using kappa coefficients and validity using linear models. The ability of the SPS to predict changes in symptoms (SCL-90-GSI) during a 1-year follow-up was measured. The analysis of validity and prediction of SPS were based on data of all 326 patients and analysis of reliability of SPS on a sample of 28 patients.Both the repeatability of the interviewers' assessments over 3 years and agreement between interviewers and reference were fair or good. An association of the SPS with personality functions but not with psychiatric symptoms supported criterion and discriminating validity of the SPS. The SPS also significantly predicted changes in symptoms during follow-up.The SPS appeared to be a valid and reliable method for assessing pre-treatment suitability, with good prediction of psychotherapy outcome.

Background The early repolarization pattern (ERP) is common and associated with risk of sudden cardiac death. ERP is heritable, and mutations have been described in syndromatic cases. Objective To conduct a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify common genetic variants influencing ERP. Methods We ascertained ERP on the basis of electrocardiograms in 3 large community-based cohorts from Europe and the United States: the Framingham Heart Study, the Health 2000 Study, and the KORA F4 Study. We analyzed genome-wide association studies in participants with and without ERP by logistic regression assuming an additive genetic model and meta-analyzed individual cohort results. We then sought to strengthen support for findings that reached P ≤ 1 × 10 −5 in independent individuals by direct genotyping or in-silico analysis of genome-wide data. We meta-analyzed the results from both stages. Results Of 7482 individuals in the discovery stage, 452 showed ERP (ERP positive: mean age 46.9 ± 8.9 years, 30.3% women; ERP negative: 47.5 ± 9.4 years, 54.2% women). After meta-analysis, 8 single nucleotide polymorphisms reached P ≤ 1 × 10 −5 : The most significant finding was intergenic rs11653989 (odds ratio 0.47; 95% confidence interval 0.36–0.61; P = 6.9 × 10 −9 ). The most biologically relevant finding was intronic to KCND3: rs17029069 (odds ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 1.25–1.69; P = 8.5 × 10 −7 ). In the replication step (7151 individuals), none of the 8 variants replicated, and combined meta-analysis results failed to reach genome-wide significance. Conclusions In a genome-wide association study, we were not able to reliably identify genetic variants predisposing to ERP, presumably due to insufficient statistical power and phenotype heterogeneity. The reported heritability of ERP warrants continued investigation in larger well-phenotyped populations.

Background Short- and long-term psychotherapies have been found effective for treating mood and anxiety disorders. Although psychotherapists differ in their effectiveness, virtually no comparative research exists on the therapist characteristics beneficial to short- or long-term therapy. Methods Altogether 326 outpatients, aged 20–46 years, and suffering from mood or anxiety disorder, were randomly assigned to either short-term (solution-focused or psychodynamic therapy, combined) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy, and were followed up for 3 years. Therapies were provided by 55 volunteering therapists with at least 2 years of work experience in the given form of therapy. Therapists' professional and personal characteristics, measured before randomization, were assessed with the Development of Psychotherapists Common Core Questionnaire (DPCCQ). Patients' general psychiatric symptoms were assessed as the main outcome measure at baseline and 3, 7, 9, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months after start of treatment with the Symptom Check List, Global Severity Index (SCL-90-GSI). Results Active, engaging, and extroverted therapists produced a faster symptom reduction in short-term therapy than in long-term therapy. More cautious, non-intrusive therapists generated greater benefits in long-term therapy during the 3-year follow-up. Therapists' lower confidence and enjoyment in therapeutic work predicted poorer outcomes in short-term therapy in the long run. Limitations Generalizability may be limited due to relatively experienced therapists. Conclusions Therapist characteristics apparently are important determinants of effectiveness of short- and long-term psychotherapy. If confirmed in future studies, results may be applied in training and supervision of therapists as well as in fitting therapy forms with therapist dispositions to maximize treatment benefits.

Background Psychotherapy is apparently an insufficient treatment for some patients with mood or anxiety disorder. In this study the effectiveness of short-term and long-term psychotherapies was compared with that of psychoanalysis. Methods A total of 326 psychiatric outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomly assigned to solution-focused therapy, short-term psychodynamic and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapies. Additionally, 41 patients suitable for psychoanalysis were included in the study. The patients were followed from the start of the treatment and assessed 9 times during a 5-year follow-up. The primary outcome measures on symptoms were the Beck Depression Inventory, the Hamilton Depression and Anxiety Rating Scales, and the Symptom Check List, anxiety scale. Primary work ability and functional capacity measures were the Work Ability Index, the Work-subscale of the Social Adjustment Scale, and the Perceived Psychological Functioning Scale. Results A reduction in psychiatric symptoms and improvement in work ability and functional capacity was noted in all treatment groups during the 5-year follow-up. The short-term therapies were more effective than psychoanalysis during the first year, whereas the long-term therapy was more effective after 3 years of follow-up. Psychoanalysis was most effective at the 5-year follow-up, which also marked the end of the psychoanalysis. Conclusions Psychotherapy gives faster benefits than psychoanalysis, but in the long run psychoanalysis seems to be more effective. Results from trials, among patients suitable for psychoanalysis and with longer follow-up, are needed before firm conclusions about the relative effectiveness of psychoanalysis and psychotherapy in the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders can be drawn.

Mood and anxiety disorders are characterized by a high and increasing prevalence, they cause a lot of costs and human suffering and there are many treatment options with differing costs. The benefits of identifying the treatments with the most favourable cost-effectiveness ratios can be substantial. However, the number of randomized trials where psychological treatments are compared with each other and where economic aspects, too, are taken into account is still relatively small.To compare the cost-effectiveness of two short-term psychotherapies in the treatment of depressive and anxiety disorders during a one-year follow-up.In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 198 patients, who were 20--45 years of age and met DSM-IV criteria for anxiety or mood disorder, were randomized to short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (SPP) or solution-focused therapy (SFT). Psychiatric symptoms were assessed at baseline and 4 times during the one-year follow-up from the start of therapy using the Beck Depression Inventory and the Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale, and 2 times using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scales and Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scales. Both direct costs (therapy sessions, outpatient visits, medication, inpatient care) and indirect costs (production losses due to work absenteeism, value of neglected household work, lost leisure time and unpaid help received) due to mental disorders were measured. Mean total costs were compared and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios analyzed.According to all 4 psychiatric outcome measures, symptoms of depression and anxiety were reduced statistically significantly in both therapy groups during the one-year follow-up. The relative changes were about the same size according to all four outcome measures. In both groups the reductions took place mainly in the first half of the follow-up. The reductions were somewhat greater with SPP, but the differences between the two groups were small and not statistically significant at any measurement point. The mean total direct costs were 1791 euros in the SPP group, being 346 euros (16%) lower than those of the SFT group, but this difference was not statistically significant either. Also the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio points calculated by 500 bootstrap iterations favoured SPP. The total indirect costs in the SPP group were, in contrast to direct costs, higher than those in the SFT group, but, again, the difference was not statistically significant.The generalization of our results may be weakened by the fact that the patients included in our study were relatively young, and the follow-up period was restricted to one year.This study suggests that there are no notable differences in cost-effectiveness between SPP and SFT. If one were obliged to choose between these two therapies our results would support the choice of SPP. However, more research with extensive data about both costs and effectiveness, compiled over a period longer than one year, are needed before any firm conclusions can be drawn about the cost-effectiveness of the two therapies compared in this study.

The population attributable fraction (PAF) is a useful measure for describing the expected change in an outcome if its risk factors are modified. Cohort studies allow researchers to assess the predictive value of the risk factor modification on the incidence of the outcome during a certain follow-up. Estimation of PAF for both mortality and morbidity in cohort studies with censored survival data has been developed in the recent years. So far, however, censoring due to death in the estimation of PAF for morbidity has been ignored, resulting in estimation of a quantity which is not relevant in practice as some people are likely to die during the follow-up. The risk factors related to the disease incidence may also be related to mortality, and modification of these risk factors is likely to delay the occurrence of both events. Thus, censoring due to death and the impact of risk factor modification must be considered when estimating PAF for disease incidence. We consider both and introduce two measures of disease burden: PAF for the incidence of disease during lifetime and PAF for the prevalence of disease in the population at a certain time. We demonstrate how consideration of censoring due to death changes the estimated PAF for disease incidence and its confidence interval. This underlines the importance of choosing a correct PAF measure depending on the outcome of interest and the risk factors of interest to obtain accurate and interpretable results.

ObjectivesLifestyle is less favourable among individuals suffering from psychiatric disorders. We studied whether psychotherapy brings along changes in lifestyle and whether these changes differ between short-term and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (SPP and LPP) and solution-focused therapy (SFT).MethodsA total of 326 outpatients, 20–46 years of age, with mood or anxiety disorder were randomly assigned to LPP, SPP and SFT. The lifestyle variables considered were alcohol consumption, smoking, body mass index (BMI), leisure time exercise and serum cholesterol. The patients were monitored for three years from the start of treatment.ResultsDuring the three-year follow-up, BMI and serum cholesterol rose statistically significantly although no statistically significant trends were shown for alcohol consumption, smoking or exercise. SPP showed a disadvantage of increased alcohol consumption and serum cholesterol level when compared with LPP. SFT showed an advantage of reduced smoking in comparison with SPP.DiscussionSmall therapy-specific changes in lifestyle may be a result from psychotherapy treatment. These lifestyle changes are apparently more common in short-term therapy. More studies are needed to verify these findings.

The mutual importance of different predictors of remission was studied in 163 outpatients with depression receiving either short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy or solution-focused therapy. After a 1-year follow-up, the percentage of remission significantly varied between sociodemographic subgroups and was dependent on severity of symptoms, personality disorder, and psychosocial factors but not on psychiatric history, previous psychiatric treatment, or type of therapy received. Simultaneous study showed that the most significant predictors were sense of coherence (based on Sense of Coherence Scale [SOCS]), symptom severity (based on Symptom Checklist-90 [SCL-90] Global Severity Index [GSI]), and education. The relative risks of remission between the lowest and highest quartiles of SOCS and SCL-90 GSI were 0.06 and 0.22 (95% confidence intervals = 0.01–0.35 and 0.05–0.97), respectively. In conclusion, several background factors, especially sense of coherence, predict remission.

BackgroundInsufficient evidence exists for a viable choice between long- and short-term psychotherapies in the treatment of psychiatric disorders. The present trial compares the effectiveness of one long-term therapy and two short-term therapies in the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders.MethodIn the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 out-patients with mood (84.7%) or anxiety disorder (43.6%) were randomly assigned to three treatment groups (long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy, short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy) and were followed up for 3 years from start of treatment. Primary outcome measures were depressive symptoms measured by self-report Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and observer-rated Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), and anxiety symptoms measured by self-report Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale (SCL-90-Anx) and observer-rated Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA).ResultsA statistically significant reduction of symptoms was noted for BDI (51%), HAMD (36%), SCL-90-Anx (41%) and HAMA (38%) during the 3-year follow-up. Short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy was more effective than long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy during the first year, showing 15–27% lower scores for the four outcome measures. During the second year of follow-up no significant differences were found between the short-term and long-term therapies, and after 3 years of follow-up long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy was more effective with 14–37% lower scores for the outcome variables. No statistically significant differences were found in the effectiveness of the short-term therapies.ConclusionsShort-term therapies produce benefits more quickly than long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy but in the long run long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy is superior to short-term therapies. However, more research is needed to determine which patients should be given long-term psychotherapy for the treatment of mood or anxiety disorders.

It has been suggested that vitamin D reduces the risk of type 2 diabetes. The finding that vitamin D deficiency is associated with impaired -cell function and insulin resistance in animals (1,2) and humans (3,4) is in line with that hypothesis. In the only cohort study published, the intake of vitamin D supplements was inversely associated with the development of type 2 diabetes (5). Since vitamin D intake covers only a part of the total vitamin D available, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the prediction of serum 25-hydroxyvitaminD (25OHD) on