1. Refined atrial fibrillation screening and cost-effectiveness in the German population
- Author
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Matthias Buettner, Christopher Wallenhorst, Carlos Martinez, Philipp S. Wild, Thomas Münzel, Karl J. Lackner, Matthias Michal, Ngoc Anh Spruenker, Ben Freedman, Stefan Blankenberg, Norbert Pfeiffer, Daniel Engler, and Renate B. Schnabel
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Cost effectiveness ,Cost-Benefit Analysis ,Population ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,Atrial Fibrillation ,Natriuretic Peptide, Brain ,Epidemiology ,Humans ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Risk factor ,education ,Stroke ,Aged ,Heart Failure ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,Atrial fibrillation ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Peptide Fragments ,3. Good health ,Heart failure ,Biomarker (medicine) ,Female ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Biomarkers - Abstract
ObjectiveLittle is known on optimal screening population for detecting new atrial fibrillation (AF) in the community. We describe characteristics and estimate cost-effectiveness for a single timepoint electrocardiographic screening.MethodsWe performed a 12-lead ECG in the German population-based Gutenberg Health Study between 2007 and 2012 (n=15 010), mean age 55±11 years, 51% men and collected more than 120 clinical and biomarker variables, including N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP), risk factors, disease symptoms and echocardiographic variables.ResultsOf 15 010 individuals, 466 (3.1%) had AF. New AF was found in 32 individuals, 0.2% of the total sample, 0.5% of individuals aged 65–74 years and predominantly men (86%). The classical risk factor burden was high in individuals with new AF. The median estimated stroke risk was 2.2%/year, while risk of developing heart failure was 21% over 10 years. In the 65–74 year age group, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained resulting from a single timepoint screening was €30 361. In simulations, the costs were highly sensitive to AF detection rates, proportion of treatment and type of oral anticoagulant. Prescreening by Nt-proBNP measurements was not cost-effective in the current setting.ConclusionsIn our middle-aged population cohort, we identified 0.2% new AF by single timepoint screening. There was a significant estimated risk of stroke and heart failure in these individuals. Cost-effectiveness for screening may be reached in individuals aged 65 years and older. The simple age cut-off is not improved by using Nt-proBNP as a biomarker to guide a screening programme.
- Published
- 2021