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Contains fulltext : 248228.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence, incidence, and progression of radiographic thumb carpometacarpal (CMC-1) and trapezioscaphoid (TS) radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) in the general Dutch population aged ≥55y. DESIGN: Data were from the first and second cohort of the Rotterdam Study (1990-2005, 4-12 years follow-up, age 55+). Participants underwent bilateral radiographs at baseline (N = 7792) and follow-up (N = 3804), read for Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade. ROA was defined on the joint level as K-L grade ≥2. The prevalence was assessed at baseline, incidence at follow-up in those free of ROA at baseline, and progression in those with ROA. Differences based on sex and age were evaluated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: At baseline, 1977 (25.3%) had CMC-1 ROA and 1133 (14.5%) TS ROA. The prevalence was higher in females for CMC-1 (aOR = 1.98 95%CI [1.77-2.21]) and TS ROA (aOR = 2.00 [1.74-2.29]) and increased for every year of age (CMC-1 ROA 1.08 [1.07-1.08]) (TS ROA 1.06 [1.05-1.07]). Most (437/512; 85.4%) incident cases of CMC-1 ROA (2994 at risk) were mild (K-L = 2), whereas most (145/167; 86,8%) incident cases of TS ROA (3311 at risk) were moderate to severe (K-L = 3/4). CMC-1 ROA progression was mostly (88/100; 88.0%) seen in the K-L 2 group at baseline, whereas that was (4/17; 23.5%) for TS ROA. CONCLUSION: CMC-1 ROA and TS ROA are prevalent in the general Dutch population. While incident CMC-1 ROA was primarily mild, incident TS ROA was more often moderate to severe. CMC-1 ROA was a strong predictor for incident TS ROA.

Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic model for incident radiologic hip osteoarthritis (HOA) and determine the value of previously identified predictive factors. Design: We first validated previously reported predictive factors for HOA by performing univariate and multivariate analyses for all predictors in three large prospective cohorts (total sample size of 4548 with 653 incident cases). The prognostic model was developed in 2327 individuals followed for 10 years from the Rotterdam Study-I (RS-I) cohort. External validation of the model was tested on discrimination in two other cohorts: RS-II (n = 1435) and the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) study (n = 786). Results: From the total number of 28 previously reported predictive factors, we were able to replicate 13 factors, while 15 factors were not significantly predictive in a meta-analysis of the three cohorts. The basic model including the demographic, questionnaire, and clinical examination variables (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.67) or genetic markers (AUC = 0.55) or urinary C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type II collagen (uCTX-II) levels (AUC = 0.67) alone were poor predictors of HOA in all cohorts. Imaging factors showed the highest predictive value for the development of HOA (AUC = 0.74). Addition of imaging variables to the basic model led to substantial improvement in the discriminative ability of the model (AUC = 0.78) compared with uCTX-II (AUC = 0.74) or genetic markers (AUC = 0.68). Applying external validation, similar results were observed in the RS-II and the CHECK cohort. Conclusions: The developed prediction model included demographic, a limited number of questionnaire, and imaging risk factors seems promising for prediction of HOA.