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We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.

Women's empowerment has become a focal point for development efforts worldwide and there is a need for an updated, critical assessment of the existing evidence on women's empowerment and fertility. We conducted a literature review on studies examining the relationships between women's empowerment and several fertility-related topics. Among the 60 studies identified for this review, the majority were conducted in South Asia (n = 35) and used household decision-making as a measure of empowerment (n = 37). Overall, the vast majority of studies found some positive associations between women's empowerment and lower fertility, longer birth intervals, and lower rates of unintended pregnancy, but there was some variation in results. In many studies, results differed based on the measure of empowerment used, sociopolitical or gender environment, or sub-population studied. This article is one of the first evaluations of the literature assessing the relationships between women's empowerment and fertility. We identify several key issues that merit further investigation., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 20 sub-Saharan African countries, this article compares the actual lengths of birth intervals to women's reported preferred lengths, and assesses the implications of the difference between the two for selected demographic and health indicators. The results show a clear pattern. In Comoros, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe, women prefer much longer birth intervals than those they actually have, compared with women in the other 15 countries studied. As a consequence, the potential effects of spacing preferences on the level of fertility and on the prevalences of short (less than 24 months) birth intervals and child malnutrition are greatest in the same five countries. The covariates of preferred birth-interval lengths are also examined. An explanation is offered for this pattern, based on the observed sharp decline in fertility recently experienced by these five "forerunners." In general, women who know, approve of, discuss, and use family planning prefer longer intervals than do their counterparts. The policy and program relevance of these results is discussed.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of lactational amenorrhoea and to determine the relationship between extended breastfeeding and the return of fertility. Breastfeeding pattern, basal body temperature, cervical mucus, salivary ferning, vaginal blood discharge, frequency of sexual intercourse, and the presence of ovulation in the first cycle after the resumption of menses with ultrasonography were evaluated in 40 women. All subjects completed the study with only one case of incomplete breastfeeding. No pregnancies were observed. The mean number of feeding sessions and mean interval between sessions decreased significantly (p <0.01) during the first six months postpartum (7.5 +/- 1.3 after 60 days postpartum vs. 5.7 +/- 2.1 after 180 days, and 3.6 +/- 0.8 vs. 5.1 +/- 0.9, respectively). Eight women (20%) menstruated before weaning, but none had an adequate thermal shift, while 32 (80%) had their first vaginal bleeding after weaning with 12 (37.5%) registering an adequate thermal shift. Both basal body temperature and salivary ferning proved to be suggestive of ovarian activity, while mucus characteristics were not reliable in identifying fertile periods. Our study showed that breastfeeding associated with lactational amenorrhoea proved to be a good method of postpartum fertility control. Since the importance of supplementation is still debated, it is recommended that a "complete" breastfeeding program be used.

"This paper uses data from a 1992/93 sample survey of 1,000 women aged 15-49 in selected areas of Imo State, Nigeria. The purpose of the survey was to get information/data on birth-spacing dynamics of the area. In this paper, we applied the basic Bongaarts model and its extended version to identify the proximate determinants of Igbo fertility. A total fertility rate [of] 6.7 births per woman is estimated from the model compared with a TFR of 7.26 actually observed from the survey. When compared with earlier studies, it is shown that the principal proximate determinant of fertility in the area is no more lactational infecundability, but delayed marriage. Explanations for this change, future research needs and policy implications are discussed." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE), (excerpt)

"This paper investigates the effect of parental benefits on the timing and spacing of births and on employment dynamics of Swedish women. Using microdata on wages and incomes, I estimate a reduced-form multistate duration model of the bivariate life-cycle fertility and employment process. The paper provides an example of the application of empirical procedures to develop and evaluate multistate hazard models. Estimation results are mixed, with estimated wage effects generally consistent with theoretical predications while estimated effects of the benefits are not. The evaluation procedures offer valuable diagnostic information and suggest several avenues for future research.", (excerpt)

To examine the effects of birth spacing on early childhood mortality, 3729 singleton births in 1983-84 were followed for 3 years in rural Bangladesh. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess whether the survival of older siblings modifies the effect of preceding birth intervals and to see if the effects of preceding and succeeding birth intervals are inter-related, controlling for the effects of sex of the child, mother's age and household economic status. With the exception of the neonatal period, birth spacing effects were highly significant. A preceding birth interval of < 15 months was associated with a greater mortality risk in the post-neonatal period for children with an older sibling who survived infancy. However, a short preceding birth interval did not adversely affect post-neonatal mortality if the older sibling died in infancy. Neonatal and post-neonatal deaths were higher if older siblings had died in respective age intervals. A pregnancy interval of < 12 months after childbirth raised the risk of death at ages 1-2 years considerably if the child was born after a short birth interval (< 15 months). The results suggest that the high mortality risks of closely spaced children are due to sibling competition for parental resources.

Fertility change over time in a migrating Mennonite church congregation is reconstructed through genealogies developed from church registries of vital events during 1725-1924. The congregation was located in Prussia from 1725-1821, in Russia from 1822-1874, and in Kansas, U.S.A., from 1875-1924. Age-specific marital fertility rates were relatively low and usually peaked for women aged 25-29. Total fertility rates ranged from 1.19 to 5.29. These relatively low figures for a natural fertility population may partly reflect underreporting of births and deaths of infants, but it also reflects the heterogeneity in fertility evident for this population. Some women had many children while others were having either few or none. This pattern changed twice. Fertility was lowest during residence late in Prussia and early in Russia, peaked during residence late in Russia, and has decreased slightly for women born in the United States.

"A regression model which combines both the time cost and relative income hypotheses is estimated using Canadian data. The results indicate that the influence of relative income is greater on completed fertility and the effect of time cost is greater on timing of births. Some policy implications are derived.", (excerpt)

"This paper examined the validity of a Butz-Ward-type model by applying it to trends in Japan's fertility rates from 1968 to 1986. Most of the existing studies on the Butz-Ward model used total fertility rates as the dependent variable. As the Butz-Ward model is concerned with couples' fertility behaviors, [the author uses]...total marital fertility rates. We first calculated total marital fertility rates (TMFR) from 1968 to 1986 by using data of Japan's National Fertility Surveys.... As a result of the auto-regression analysis of TMFR, we found a statistically significant negative effect of a rise in employed wife's wage rate as was expected. As for the timing indices, the third birth timing index was significantly positively affected by an increase in husband's income when his wife was employed, while the third birth was likely to be delayed by a rise in employed wife's wage rate." An English summary is available from the author., (excerpt)

"This paper estimates semiparametric reduced-form neoclassical models of life-cycle fertility in Sweden.... The estimated model integrates aspects of life cycle fertility that have previously been studied in isolation of each other: completed fertility, childlessness, interbirth intervals, and the time series of annual birth rates. The main objective of this paper is to determine which aspects of life cycle fertility, if any, are sensitive to male income and female wages.", (excerpt)

Demographers often assume that interpopulation variation in birth spacing is attributable primarily to behavioral differences (e.g., in breastfeeding, coital frequency, or contraceptive practice), and that the contribution of physiological factors is negligible. This assumption may be correct, but it should be tested, especially in light of recent evidence that there may be more variation in ovarian function among human populations than was previously believed. In this paper, we apply a stochastic model of the determinants of fecundability (the monthly probability of conception) to endocrinological data collected among the Gainj, a tribal population in highland Papua New Guinea. Based on previous research, the Gainj are known to have age patterns of ovarian function that differ markedly from the Western norms. When account is taken of the late menarche, early menopause, and long ovarian cycles that appear to characterize Gainj women, mean apparent fecundability across the female reproductive span is reduced by about 27 per cent (from 0.316 to 0.235), and the mean waiting time to next apparent conception is increased by just over one month. Thus, despite the fact that Gainj women differ from Western women with respect to reproductive physiology by as much as or more than any other known population, the demographic impact of these differences appears to be slight.

"A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age-specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter-birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well-known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS [World Fertility Surveys conducted in developing] countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined." (SUMMARY IN FRE), (excerpt)

The 1985 Jordan Husbands' Fertility Survey (JHFS) was designed to assess husbands' attitudes and behavior toward fertility and family planning. The 1985 JHFS was a follow-up survey to obtain data from husbands of women who were currently married in the 1983 Jordan Fertility and Family Health Survey (JFFHS). The results from the 1985 JHFS point to the usefulness of collecting fertility and family planning information from husbands. These findings showed that nearly 40 percent of the husbands do not believe in practicing contraception, and more than 50 percent of the husbands report that family size should be "up to God." How program officials address these issues will be important for the future success of the family planning program in Jordan.

"This paper proposes and tests a dynamic model that [analyzes] time allocation decisions and fertility choices. The latter consist of timing of children and completed family size. [The author emphasizes] the need to integrate both types of choices in order to arrive at a meaningful empirical analysis and shows that, with exceptions, research on female labor supply has largely ignored the progress made in studies on fertility.... The estimation results, obtained by the maximum likelihood method from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics,...indicate support for the model as well as the need for further research.", (excerpt)

The author examines the fertility behavior of the urban poor in India. "On the basis of data from 180 slum households in Calcutta, India, the paper indicates that in a situation where material and social conditions are comparable, cultural and demographic variables play a major role in influencing reproductive behavior. In this case study, caste and family type are shown to have a significant effect on the numbers of surviving children. As regards child spacing, the woman's age is of paramount importance.", (excerpt)

Breast feeding is of central importance to child survival, growth and development, especially in non-industrialized countries. It also protects the mother against further pregnancy. In the light of the increase in the world's population, the implications of the decrease in breast feeding worldwide are serious. There is a direct association between child health and survival and breast feeding. In this paper, the contraceptive effect of breast feeding is reviewed. The emphasis is on families in non-industrialized societies. The importance of suckling frequency and duration, and the timing of introduction of supplementary foods to the baby, are discussed. Limitations of the method, and recommendations to maximize its effectiveness, are given. It is noted that protection of breast feeding both as a means of improving child health and of spacing births will require positive action at local and at governmental levels.

"The purpose of this article is to provide an explanation of the recent decline of fertility in Switzerland with a saturation model. This process, which can be observed in the majority of highly developed countries since about 1965, is part of a long-term process of limitation of births." Factors considered in the model include the segregation between the work place and household, the development of social security systems, excessive consumption, and changing values. The model attempts to show that individuals are experiencing increasing structural and cultural tensions due to an increase in the impact of such factors that lead them to react in a variety of ways, some of which can affect the number and timing of births. The author suggests that both the fertility level and fertility decline have different determinants and concludes that fears of the "dying out" of the Swiss population are premature. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE), (excerpt)

Fertility, health, and family planning are not independent factors, but rather involve a series of biological and social mechanisms in close interaction with one another. The impact that a high fertility rate has on health is reflected mainly in a rise in the rates of maternal and child mortality. Similarly, fertility has a greater negative effect upon the health of groups characterized by high reproductive risk, high parity, short intergenesic intervals, and unwanted pregnancies. On the other hand, family planning -and specifically the use of contraceptive methods-helps to achieve a lowering of the fertility rate and also has a positive effect on maternal-child health. This situation can be observed in the case of Mexico, where fertility rates and tendencies, as well as maternal and child mortality, have been reduced during the past decade.

"This article presents an analysis of the influence of demographic, socio-cultural and socioeconomic variables on the birth spacing pattern of women [in the Netherlands] with the aid of data from the Netherlands Fertility Survey 1982 and the follow-up study in 1985 (NFS'82/'85). Only the first and second intervals of women married for the first time and born between 1945-1964 are taken into account." The results indicate that 18 percent of the variance in the length of the first birth interval is due to such factors, suggesting that the influence of personal factors on fertility behavior is substantial. However, such variables account for only 8 percent of variance in the length of second birth intervals. (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

This paper deals with the findings of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) and Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPSs) in five areas of common interest: fertility, contraceptive use, measuring the effect of the availability of contraceptives on levels of use, the unmet need for family planning services, and breastfeeding. The comparisons have several implications for those designing surveys of fertility and family planning in developing countries, among them, that women should be asked for the dates of at least their last two births (not just the last birth as in the CPSs) in order to ensure accurate estimates of fertility and duration of breastfeeding.

This paper examines the proximate determinants of fertility in Puerto Rico using data from a 1982 island-wide study. Contraceptive use was found to be the primary direct determinant of fertility in Puerto Rico, both for the total population and for each level of education studied. Female sterilization is the most prevalent method of contraception used in Puerto Rico at each educational level. Marriage is also important in Puerto Rico and is the only proximate determinant that varies across education groups. Late age at first marriage, in addition to high contraceptive use, accounts for the below-replacement fertility of women who have more than a high school education. In contrast, women who have not completed high school tend to marry early and not practice contraception for birth-spacing purposes. This study shows the advantages of analyzing fertility determinants at the population subgroup level (i.e., women of various educational attainment levels) so that the fertility of the total population can be better understood.

Pronatalist programs and their effects in Europe are reviewed from the 1930s to the present, with individual attention given to France, West Germany, and Romania. The author finds that "where there are low levels of fertility, pronatalist incentives result primarily in accelerating the birth of the second child to an earlier time, especially among younger couples. Average completed family size tends to change little, with usually only a slight increase in the proportion of women giving birth to a third child.", (excerpt)

Among the countries of South Asia, Sri Lanka, with a birth rate of 26 per 1,000, has achieved by far the lowest fertility level. The research reported here shows that at least half of all fertility control there is still practiced by means other than those offered by the national family planning program. This paper reports on an investigation carried out by the Sri Lankan Department of Census and Statistics, employing a micro-approach to demographic research, on the levels of "traditional" methods of family planning and attitudes toward the practice of both modern and traditional contraception. It is shown that knowledge of rhythm was diffused throughout society as the cost of raising children increased during a period when other methods of family planning were not easily accessible. These traditional methods were employed efficiently and their high level of continued use arises from strong cultural resistance to the pill and IUD, based upon local interpretations of how these methods function. Thus, any programmatic effort to reduce dependence on traditional family planning might well result in higher fertility levels. In addition, low fertility among Indian Tamil workers on the Tea Estates, as early as the 1950s, probably resulted from a desire (manifested by lower levels of sexual activity and some abortion) to avoid frequent pregnancies, since pregnancy interrupts work that the female Estate workers cannot afford to miss.