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Abstract This study seeks to test the validity of the Marshall–Lerner (M-L) condition between Egypt and BRICS countries (five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to determine which industries will benefit from depreciation in the long run by employing the import and export models between Egypt and the BRICS countries at the bilateral and commodity levels by selecting 69 commodities according to the harmonized system (H.S.) 2-digits—these commodities represent a significant portion of Egypt–BRICS trade—and applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test over 2001–2022. The results indicate that the M-L condition is not met at the bilateral trade level. At the commodity level, the M-L condition is held only in 8 out of 69 industries. Egypt has a comparative advantage in five of these eight industries—coded 17, 32, 55, 62, and 96—while 71, 79, and 84 have a comparative disadvantage. However, all these industries’ sizes, reflected by their trade share in 2022, are small. The paper builds on previous theoretical and empirical work in this field and fills a knowledge gap by examining the M-L condition in Egypt–BRICS trade. Moreover, addressing aggregation bias through disaggregated analysis—at the bilateral level as well as at the commodity level—the study results may motivate the government and policymakers to ask for more consideration of the structure of Egypt’s exports and imports with BRICS countries to capture the benefits of devaluation and joining the BRICS bloc and provide comprehensive backing for the industries where the M-L condition was met.

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of exchange rate changes on the velocity of money in the Egyptian economy, especially after the exchange rate underwent several changes that led to a significant depreciation of the Egyptian pound. The velocity of money has been influenced by various economic variables, including the interest rate, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita income, foreign reserves, exports and imports, the degree of financial development, and the broad money supply.Among these, the exchange rate is considered one of the most significant influencing variables, as it serves as a dual economic adjustment tool to achieve both internal and external balance.To achieve this goal, the study utilized annual time series data spanning from 2000 to 2024. It employed two approaches: the analytical approach, which encompasses economic theories that identify the key determinants of exchange rate fluctuations and the velocity of money, aiming to uncover the pathways through which the exchange rate influences the velocity of money. Additionally, the econometric approach was applied, using time series data for both independent variables and the dependent variable through the ARIMA model.The results of the study indicated a significant positive correlation between the exchange rate, per capita income, and the velocity of money. Conversely, the study found a significant negative correlation between foreign currency reserves, the broad money supply, and the velocity of money.

This study investigates the impacts of the nominal exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using a structural break cointegration test with endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and an asymmetric cointegration test for the period of 2002-2021. The study differs from previous research on this relation in two respects. First, it takes into account structural breaks in relation to both regimes and trends (C/S/T). Second, it extends the asymmetric cointegration with multiple structural breaks. The findings of structural break cointegration capture the break dates in line with the Turkish economics dynamics and reveal the negative effects of the exchange rates on stocks, with their significance and magnitude differing in regimes. Similarly, NARDL results indicate that negative and positive exchange rate shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on stocks for both the whole period and regimes. The overall findings demonstrate that exchange rate variations have distinctive impacts on stock prices when considering structural break and asymmetrical dynamics. In this background, policymakers and foreign investors need to take into account these dynamics when dealing with Turkish financial markets.

Transfer pricing can be misapplied by the company by transferring taxable income to subsidiaries and companies with special relationships to significantly push down the tax expense. This research aims to determine factors that can affect transfer pricing decisions. Those factors include tax income, exchange rates, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals. The research object of this research is a company from the consumer non-cyclical sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2017 to 2021. The samples are eight companies selected with purposive sampling technique, resulting in 40 observation data. The analysis technique implemented in this research is panel data regression tested Eviews12. This research reveals that tax income and tunnelling incentives negatively influence transfer pricing decisions. At the same time, the exchange rate and multi-nationality do not affect transfer pricing decisions. Variable tax income, exchange rate, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals have simultaneously affected transfer pricing decisions.

Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades, where government institutions have been destroyed and malfunctioned, including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of the money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. This study investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance both in the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has a significant impact on trade balance but significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Overall, the study confirms the absence of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect, validated by several econometric methodologies for robustness. Our study suggests that reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies can restore the credibility and stability of the Somali shilling, which can boost trade and investment.

Market turnover levels and liquidity changes across various territories significantly influence currency prices, leading to continuous fluctuations. Consequently, traders and investors constantly seek strategies to mitigate exchange rate risks. This study aimed to measure and assess foreign exchange risk utilizing Neural Networks and ARMA-GARCH models. Data on five leading currencies, covering the period from 6 January 2016 to 28 June 2024 were sourced from the National Bank of Rwanda. Specifically, the study employed the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model, a type of recurrent neural network, to evaluate the riskiness of asset currencies. The estimated volatilities were compared with those derived from traditional ARCH-GARCH models. Notably, the LSTM model yielded lower root mean square error values compared to the ARMA-GARCH models, demonstrating superior accuracy in forecasting currency volatilities. The findings indicate that EGP and KES are riskier than USD, EUR, and GBP.

This research examines the co-movement between exchange rates and equity prices in a selection of frontier African markets (Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia). The analysis encompasses data from 4 January 2010 to 31 March 2023. Employing advanced econometric techniques, the study investigates the interconnectedness of frontier markets and the direction of volatility spillovers between currency and equity markets. Our findings revel that Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia are characterized by strong sensitivity to price variations and high volatility. Moreover, significant volatility transmission and spillover effects are observed across the selected markets. Finally, the analysis finds the presence of non-linear dynamics in both the time and frequency domains. In light of these findings, policymakers and investors should incorporate the potential for abrupt and persistent changes, as well as volatility spillovers, into their decision-making processes when considering investments in the Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia markets. This research is anticipated to contribute to the development of more robust investment strategies for managing risk exposure within diversified portfolios.

The primary goal of this research is to examine the impact of external debt, exchange rates, economic growth inflation and tax revenue on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Next-11 (N-11) countries where tax revenue used as a control variable. FDI plays an important role in boosting economic growth in developing countries such as the N-11. This study applied secondary data from 1993 to 2020. The panel unit root test has several criteria to make a decision on the unit root of the selected factors. This study considers the PMG panel ARDL model in the case of mixed orders. The exchange rate affects FDI negatively in the short run but positively in the long run, according to the findings of this study, the coefficient of variable external debt has a positive coefficient and result explains that a one percent raise in external debt tends to raise FDI by 0.46 percent in the long run but the result is not statistically significant. Economic growth has a positive impact on FDI over the long run and inflation has negative impact in the long run. By using the Kao cointegration test, a long-run association was found, and the ECT between the variables and the rate of adjustment was 27%. However, this study has the potential to have an impact on economic areas like global trade, global economics, public finance, and foreign direct investment decision-making.

AbstractThe performance of bank stocks exhibits a country’s overall financial health and signals economic growth. Therefore, understanding the interaction of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns is crucial for the valuation of financial assets, especially in a highly volatile stock market. Although macroeconomic factors and their impact on bank stock returns have been extensively investigated, there is still a dearth of comprehensive review articles in this domain. To address this lacuna, we conducted a systematic review to identify the macroeconomic determinants driving bank stock returns. Through a systematic search, 64 articles were identified from two electronic databases for literature synthesis based on inclusion and exclusion criteria from 1980–2023. The review posits valuable insights into the macroeconomic factors that influence bank stock returns, the nuances of the variables’ effects and the methodologies employed in these studies. The key macroeconomic factors identified include interest and exchange rate sensitivity, which has been studied extensively; however, the impact of monetary policies, gold prices and oil prices needs further investigation. Subsequently, the study documents various bank-specific characteristics that influence the relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank stock returns.

AbstractThe study investigated GVC and exchange rate comovements from 1990 to 2018. The study employed a continuous wavelet coherence procedure to investigate the time-frequency dependence of global value chain (GVC) participation and exchange rates relationship in Africa. We find from the study that there is interdependency between exchange rates and global value chain participation only in the very short term for all selected countries. The study finds interdependent and well-governed networks continue to experience muted effects of exchange rate effects on GVC participation while independent firms in countries participating in GVC forward integration are negatively impacted.

AbstractThis study examines the effects of exchange rate and net exports on manufacturing enterprises’ profitability on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). When activity-based accounting is examined using panel data techniques, the main objective is to examine the direction and magnitude of the moderating influence of exchange rate fluctuations on net exports and the return on assets. We employed 249 manufacturing companies on the Pakistan Stock Exchange from 1999 to 2019. The Pakistani economy used a multicurrency system, using the Generalize Method of Moment (GMM) regression analysis system. The number of debtors’ days, creditors’ days, the cash conversion cycle, and the company’s return on assets all link favorably. Inventory turnover days, financial leverage, net exports, exchange rate, and return on assets are all negative. The Size and age of a business have a significant positive association with profitability but a negative relationship with Return on Assets (ROA). This study suggests that activity-based accounting improves company performance. Recognizing interdependence, net exports owing to currency rate depreciation have adverse effects. Managers may construct an appropriate measure to control activity-based working according to forex market symptoms and when macro-economic factors modify micro-economic policies’ behavior to increase ROA. Hence, debtors need to be paid early, and payables need to be paid late, but in these cases, the financial management should improve the return on assets.

This study aimed to use panel dynamic models (Panel NARDL, Panel ARDL) in statistical estimation to measure the effects of time variation and cross-sectional data simultaneously. its application is to measure the impact of GDP, exchange rate and oil price on inflation rate for North African countries (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco) during the period from 1990 to 2022. Using Hsiao test was done for ensuring non-total homogeneity and non-homogeneity of parameters and constants of the panel model. By estimating both the Panel ARDL and Panel NARDL models for five countries, the results indicate that the Panel NARDL model is better than the Panel ARDL and it is more suitable for the data, it has the highest asymmetric error correction term (ECT (-1)) =57911.-, R2=0.601, and is lower in terms of the AIC=1.833 criterions. The empirical results clearly show also that only in the long run, the positive shocks of oil price and exchange rate affect inflation rate in the NARDL model. In the short run, there is no effect of exchange rate or oil price shocks in the NARDL model.

Purpose This study examined the effect of the risk-free rate of return and other macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 (PSX). Methodology The data from 2013 to 2023 was collected from the Karachi Stock Exchange website, Yahoo Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan’s website. The main techniques for data analysis were Johansen-Juselius (J.J.) cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings The findings show that a risk-free rate significantly impacts stock returns in the long run. Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant positive impact on the stock return of listed companies. The cointegration result indicates a long-run association among all the selected variables. Moreover, the results of the VECM show that the error correction term (ECT) in VECM (-1) is negative (-0.150) and significant. The negative coefficient of 0.150 indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of 15% per period, approximately within 7 months. Conclusion The study concludes that stock prices and macroeconomic indicators have long-run associations. Conversely, changes in the risk-free rate of return by the government or the banking sector have the opposite effect on stock prices. This study assists government officials, stock market participants, and policymakers in determining the profitability of the National Savings Scheme and Banks.

The Central Bank of Turkey’s policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates during 2022. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have attracted the risk-taker investors’ attention. Therefore, the uncertainty about the rates has pushed algorithmic traders toward finding the best forecasting model. While there is a growing tendency to employ sophisticated models to forecast financial time series, in most cases, simple models can provide more precise forecasts. To examine that claim, present study has utilized several models to predict daily exchange rates for a short horizon. Interestingly, the simple exponential smoothing model outperformed all other alternatives. Besides, in contrast to the initial inferences, the time series neither had structural break nor exhibited signs of the ARCH and leverage effects. Despite that behavior, there was undeniable evidence of a long-memory trend. That means the series tends to keep a movement, at least for a short period. Finally, the study concluded the simple models provide better forecasts for exchange rates than the complicated approaches.

This paper investigates the transmission of financial contagion from the European to the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial contagion refers to the spread of instability and shocks across individual countries, sectors, or markets during a crisis, where the relationship between returns and volatility of different assets goes beyond normal interactions. Using the construction of extended autoregressive models, we test the contagion of the RTSI composite index from the EURO STOXX 50 index, with the US dollar exchange rate and the spot price of Urals crude oil serving as control variables. The calculation of the moving coefficient of variation in assets prices allows us to distinguish the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, for which three separate autoregressive models are built. The contagion of the Russian stock market from the European stock market in these models is identified in two ways: 1) based on the growth and significance of estimated coefficient for the tested variable (STOXX 50 index return) during the crisis; 2) through an increase in the contribution of the tested variable to the explained variance of the dependent variable (RTSI return). In addition, we tested contagion based on the method of central co-moments of the distribution of returns, skewness and volatility of the tested and dependent variable. The analysis has convincingly demonstrated the existence of a financial contagion effect from the European stock market to the Russian stock market in the short term — strengthening of the impact of the European STOXX 50 index on the Russian RTSI index in the acute phase of the pandemic. Understanding the factors contributing to the spread of market shocks in the context of financial globalization can help policymakers to implement effective financial regulatory measures and maintain long-term financial stability in line with national interests. For investors, it helps to identify potential risks and opportunities, enabling optimal hedging and diversification response strategies.

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için pay senedi piyasaları ve makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksi (BIST100), tüketici fiyat endeksi (TUFE), politika faiz oranı ve döviz kuru (Dolar/TL) değişkenleri, Ocak 2000 – Ekim 2023 dönemi için aylık frekansta ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri zaman serisi yöntemleri ile incelemek için Toda - Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’de politika faizinden pay senedi piyasalarına tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, TUFE ve Dolar/TL arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi ve BIST100’den Dolar/TL’ye tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Politika faiz oranı ve Dolar/TL döviz kuru ile TUFE ve BIST100 arasından nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Hem TY hem de FTY nedensellik analizinden elde edilen bulguların paralel olması seçili değişkenlerin Fourier eğilimlere sahip olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır. Buradan hareketle politika faiz oranındaki bir değişim BIST100’ü etkilemekte iken BIST100’deki bir değişim Dolar/TL’yi etkilemektedir. Bu bulgular yatırımcılar, politika yapıcılar ve araştırmacılar için yeni bilgiler sağlamaktadır.

This study aims to answer the following research question: Are the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) valid in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE)? No broad agreement has been reached in the literature on this question, yet. Using an unbalanced panel of daily stock returns of companies in the BIST-30 index and as of BIST-100 index from March 2010 to February 2019, this paper seeks to provide new evidence on this discussion and explores whether the risk-expected return relationship is linear. In the empirical framework, panel regression analysis methodology is employed. Our findings indicate that both linear CAPM and linear ICAPM models are valid in ISE. Moreover, it is observed that the ICAPM outperforms the CAPM in explaining the stock returns for both indices. This outperformance is especially more pronounced for BIST-30 than BIST-100. Depending on these findings, investors can easily prioritize BIST-100 over BIST-30 when constructing portfolios to reduce risk in the Turkish market, given the fact that exchange rate-relevant diversification is greater in BIST-100.

Abstract The core objective of this article is to explore the viability of uncovered interest parity and to reconnoiter major determinants of domestic interest rates of the Pakistan and China economies. It is imperative to study the interest rate parity that assistances to comprehend that exactly how exchange rate and domestic interest rate influence foreign interest rate of two economies in emerging trends in international trade. The World Development Indicators is main source of data gathering, and it ranges from 1980 to 2023 for the analysis of both models. This study considers two models, Engle–Granger causality has been applied in Model 1, to analyze the uncovered interest parity, and findings indicate that the exchange rate of each country has no effect on the interest rate of the other country. However, Model 2 investigates the main determinants of domestic interest rate and their long-run associations for Pakistan and China. To capture the long-run association, ARDL estimation technique has been deployed, and findings show the long-run relations and co-integration among the policy variables of both countries. In Pakistan, consumer price index and exchange rate hold positive linking with the domestic interest rate; however, output level is adversely correlated. The error correction term is 91%, confirming the rapidity of equilibrium adjustment when a shock occurs. Regarding the Chinese economy, consumer price index and exchange rate have a negative impact on China domestic interest rate. The results of the error correction model indicate an 80% speed of convergence in the long run. This study suggests that improvement in productivity and exchange rate may assist both economies to experience steady exchange rate and interest rate.

This study examines the impact of income, exchange rates, political conditions, and health factors on Indonesian tourism demand from 2010 to 2019, using multiple and panel regression analyses with data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the World Bank, the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), and the World Health Organization (WHO). The findings indicate that the income of tourists from China, Australia, Timor Leste, and other analyzed countries positively affects tourism demand, while income from Malaysia and Singapore shows no significant effect. Exchange rates positively influence tourists from Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Timor Leste, and other analyzed countries, but have no significant effect on Chinese tourists. Political conditions negatively impact Australian tourists, positively influence tourists from other analyzed countries, and have no significant effect on tourists from Malaysia, China, Singapore, and Timor Leste. Health factors negatively affect tourists, while having no significant effect on tourists from Singapore and Australia. The study recommends that the government enhance tourism supply to boost demand, with a focus on improving environmental sustainability, health, tourism service infrastructure, and security and safety. Additionally, there is a need for standardized governance rules to better manage the impacts of outbreaks or disasters on the tourism sector.

In the research, we evaluated the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of the convertible mark and identified a significant deviation of the real effective exchange rate of the convertible mark concerning the equilibrium level, especially during the period of the coronavirus pandemic and global inflation growth. During the period of globally high inflation, the main determinant of REER appreciation was the faster growth of BH price from foreign prices and slower growth of productivity in BH compared to the environment, and to a lesser extent the growth of the domestic real interest rate and changes in terms of exchange. In addition to these appreciation pressures, the impact of uncovered interest rate parity on the depreciation of REER was expressed, due to the extremely restrictive monetary policy of the ECB and the lower degree of restrictiveness of the monetary policy in BH, from the aspect of the level of foreign and domestic interest rates. The volatility of the REER deviation from the equilibrium REER is higher in crisis periods. The isolated determinants of REER of the convertible mark provide a good analytical basis for the creation of BH monetary policy and regulation of the banking sector.

Using the panel-data approach with a sample of emerging countries, this study examines the relationship between exchange-rate movements from 2011 to 2022, on the one hand, and sovereign debt credit default swap (CDS) premiums and market volatility, on the other. To capture the short- and long-run relationships between exchange rates, sovereign CDS, and market volatility, our study applies the cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model by Chudik and Pesaran (2015) with the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation method. The advantages of this setting are that it allows for cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence. The exchange rate and the sovereign CDS premium are integrated in the long run. The exchange-rate dynamics, the return on CDS, and market volatility are contemporaneously correlated. Furthermore, market volatility and the deviation from the long-run relationship between the exchange rate and CDS also provide predictive information for exchange-rate movements in the next period. These findings shed further light on the forward-premium puzzle.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine key macroeconomic determinants on Cameroon's economic growth from 1970 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach – Data were obtained from the World Development Indicators and applied on time series data econometric techniques. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds model analyzed the data since the variables had different order of integration. Findings – The results showed long and short runs’ positive and significant connection between economic growth in Cameroon and government expenditure; trade openness, gross capital formation and exchange rate. Human capital development, foreign aid, money supply, inflation and foreign direct investment negatively and significantly affected economic growth in the short and long-runs. Hence, the macroeconomic indicators are not death. Research limitations/implications – The present research paper has tried to capture the impact of nine macroeconomic determinants on economic growth such as the government expenditure (LNGOVEXP), human capital development (LNHCD), foreign aids (AID), trade openness (LNTOP), foreign direct investment (LNFDI), gross capital formation (INVEST), broad money (LNM2), official exchange rate (LNEXHRATE) and Inflation (LNINFLA). However, these variables have the tendency to affect each other in a unidirectional or bidirectional manner. Further, the present research paper is unable to capture the impact of other macroeconomic variable due to the unavailability of data. Practical implications – The study recommends that Cameroon should use proper planning and strategic policy interventions to achieve higher sustainable economic growth with human capital development, foreign aid, money supply, foreign direct investment and moderate inflation. Social implications – Macroeconomic indicators, if managed well, increase economic growth. Originality/value – This paper to the best of the researcher's knowledge presents new background information to both policymakers and researchers on the main macroeconomic determinants using econometric analysis.

This study employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the gravity model and FMOLS estimation, to examine how economic sanctions affect the trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria. Additionally, it explores the influence of factors such as GDP, exchange rate, strong sanctions, and weak sanctions. By doing so, this research contributes to the existing knowledge on bilateral trade between these two nations and provides valuable insights into areas that require attention for fostering trade development between them. The research findings reveal that in the bilateral trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria, there exists a positive correlation between GDP and weak sanctions (LIM) with trade. An increase of 1% in GDP leads to a 7.79% increase in trade, while a 1% increase in weak sanctions contributes to a 3.91% increase in trade. Conversely, strong sanctions and exchange rate have a negative impact on trade, with a 1% increment in strong sanctions resulting in a 1.18% decrease in trade, and a 1% increment in exchange rate leading to a 1.96% decrease in trade.

The consumer price index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator of consumer price inflation, which has an attendance effect on the extent of savings and, hence, on investment capacity. The literature contains different opinions on the relationship between exchange rate and consumer price index; however, given the uniqueness of each country’s economic environment, it became apposite to focus the bearing of this paper on the South African economic context. Thus, this paper evaluates the effect of currency exchange rates on the consumer price index in South Africa. Time series data on CPI and exchange rates were drawn from the Fusion Media investment database and were analysed using the OLS regression. For the independent variables exchange rate, which is the Rand price against the Dollar, the authors applied lagg-2 given the assumption that exchange rate differences might take up to two months to affect the consumer price index. The authors’ assumption draws from the findings of eminent scholars, which indicate that, given sufficient time, changes in domestic prices would fully compensate for exchange rate adjustments. The analysis showed that exchange rate changes significantly and positively affect CPI within the data’s boundaries. The findings offer academic and practical implications for understanding the theoretical short-term period effect of the exchange rate on the consumer price index within the South African setting and for practical economic policy application for advanced policies to cushion potential negative effects on savings and investment. The paper provides an agenda for further study of the application of expanded time series to evaluate the effect of currency exchange rates on CPI over a longer period to unravel a theoretical difference between the short-term and long-term implications of exchange rates on CPI.

The realism of the scenario indicators used in the formation of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the context of the special significance of the budgetary mechanism for the adaptation of the national economy to global challenges becomes of particular importance while maintaining internal and external sanctions risks. The purpose of this study is to assess the validity of the forecast values of scenario macroeconomic indicators that determine the key characteristics of the Russian federal budget in the current budget cycle, and to develop proposals for clarifying the composition and concretizing approaches to their forecasting for the medium term in conditions of increased uncertainty. The study is based on an abstract-logical method, including a critical analysis of the predictive values of macro-indicators adopted as the basis for the parameters of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2023 and the planned period of 2024 and 2025 (using the level of consumer prices and the exchange rate of the ruble as an example), establishing causal relationships between the reliability of projected budget parameters at the federal level and the state of the Russian economy, identifying possible directions for the development of approaches to forecasting initial indicators for the preparation of the federal budget. In particular, the article suggests that in the forecasting of basic scenario parameters to detail the accounting for the dynamics of world prices, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, to optimize the selection of exchange rate factors, and to take into account the variability of exchange rate volatility. The author’s developments presented in the article contribute to the efficiency of the execution of the federal budget in terms of the use of its resources, and therefore can be used in the activities of state authorities in the development of budget policy.

The Indonesian stock market is a growing financial industry that plays a strategic role in the growth of the country’s economy. Its development is affected by various factors. This study examined the impact of the exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, inflation, foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and domestic political stability on stock market capitalization. Quarterly data between 2000:Q1 and 2020:Q4 are used. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is applied to identify long-run relationships between variables. To understand how fast the system reaches equilibrium after a shock, the model also examines short-run relationships using an error correction model (ECM). The findings show that the impact of exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation on stock market capitalization is negative in the long run. While the GDP, FPI, and political stability are positive. Increment in the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah, interest rate, and inflation by 1% respectively, caused stock market capitalization to fall by 1.31%, 0.06%, and 0.04%. A rise in GDP, FPI, and political stability by 1% respectively, increases the stock market’s value by 1.17%, 1.08%, and 1.28%. In the short run, the coefficient of ECM indicates the speed of adjustment of the system: the occurrence of the shock to reach long-run equilibrium is quick enough, at 63.8% each quarter. The study recommends governments evaluate the impact of these factors when formulating monetary policies, promote economic growth, and continuously implement good governance, thus supporting stock market development.

The development of investment processes is significant for a country’s economy, economic development, and the expansion of market opportunities. The successful functioning of the national economy in the global economic space requires its integration into the international finance system. The impact of foreign direct investment on the economy of host countries remains relevant. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investments on the Gross Domestic Product of Turkey for the years 1990–2021. The data set includes foreign direct investments, exchange rate levels, and the Gross Domestic Product of Turkey and was used in logarithmic form in the empirical assessments. The results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between foreign direct investments and Gross Domestic Product. A long-term integrative relationship exists between the independent variables (foreign direct investments and exchange rate) and the dependent variable (Gross Domestic Product). Consequently, this implies that a 1% increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.35% increase in Gross Domestic Product, holding other factors constant.

In Turkey, the housing market is affected by various factors, and housing prices are shaped according to current conditions. In this study, the relationship between the housing price index (HPI) and economic variables (inflation and exchange rate) in Turkey was investigated. We used a 10-year time period for this study, from January-2010 to December-2019, with monthly data frequency. For our research, we employ the Wavelet Coherence Transformation (WCT) method. The results show that there is a positive relationship between inflation and housing prices in the short and long run. In addition, a continuous rise in inflation led to an increase in housing prices all over the period from 2010 to 2019. The findings of this study can aid in achieving the goal of the research by offering evidence-based perceptions of how housing prices and different economic variables are related. Housing costs in Turkey increased as a result of the substantial likelihood that the Turkish lira would weaken. The expansion of global inflation is a further anticipated factor contributing to the rise in housing costs in Turkey. This study can also be used by investors to help them decide whether to engage in the Turkish real estate industry.

Purpose – This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach – The authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings – The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications – The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/value – To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Aim: This study aimed at assessing the impact of exchange rate on Nigeria's economic growth by decomposing it into positive and negative components. Method: A non-linear ARDL model was used to decompose the effect of exchange rate on economic growth. Also, asymmetric effects test was used to measure the effects of changes in the value of the naira. Findings: In the short run, when the Naira depreciates against the US dollar, economic growth tends to decline, while when it appreciates, economic growth tends to increase. In the long run, these effects work in the opposite direction. In addition, the test for asymmetric effects shows that the way in which the appreciation of the naira affects economic growth differs significantly from that of its depreciation Conclusions: The general conclusion from these findings is that the effect of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria is non-linear. It is also clear from the results that the stock of knowledge does not contribute much to the growth of the Nigerian economy. This is not surprising given the low education financing and enrolment rate in Nigeria. Therefore, the evidence gathered in this research suggests that Nigeria may be underutilising its capital stock to significantly support its economic growth.

This research examines the co-movement between exchange rates and equity prices in a selection of frontier African markets (Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia). The analysis encompasses data from 4 January 2010 to 31 March 2023. Employing advanced econometric techniques, the study investigates the interconnectedness of frontier markets and the direction of volatility spillovers between currency and equity markets. Our findings revel that Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia are characterized by strong sensitivity to price variations and high volatility. Moreover, significant volatility transmission and spillover effects are observed across the selected markets. Finally, the analysis finds the presence of non-linear dynamics in both the time and frequency domains. In light of these findings, policymakers and investors should incorporate the potential for abrupt and persistent changes, as well as volatility spillovers, into their decision-making processes when considering investments in the Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia markets. This research is anticipated to contribute to the development of more robust investment strategies for managing risk exposure within diversified portfolios. Impact statement: This study investigates the relationship between currency and equity markets in frontier African economies using a wavelet-based approach. Focusing on Ghana, Mauritius, and Tunisia, it uncovers significant volatility spillovers and complex, time-varying dynamics. The findings reveal non-linear market behaviors, emphasizing the need for adaptive investment strategies in these volatile regions. By offering deeper insights into the currency-equity nexus, the research provides valuable guidance for investors and policymakers, enabling more informed decision-making and the development of resilient strategies for managing risks in frontier African markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary goal of this research is to examine the impact of external debt, exchange rates, economic growth inflation and tax revenue on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Next-11 (N-11) countries where tax revenue used as a control variable. FDI plays an important role in boosting economic growth in developing countries such as the N-11. This study applied secondary data from 1993 to 2020. The panel unit root test has several criteria to make a decision on the unit root of the selected factors. This study considers the PMG panel ARDL model in the case of mixed orders. The exchange rate affects FDI negatively in the short run but positively in the long run, according to the findings of this study, the coefficient of variable external debt has a positive coefficient and result explains that a one percent raise in external debt tends to raise FDI by 0.46 percent in the long run but the result is not statistically significant. Economic growth has a positive impact on FDI over the long run and inflation has negative impact in the long run. By using the Kao cointegration test, a long-run association was found, and the ECT between the variables and the rate of adjustment was 27%. However, this study has the potential to have an impact on economic areas like global trade, global economics, public finance, and foreign direct investment decision-making. Impact statement: This study has significant impact on academic field, accelerating foreign direct investment, international trade. This research also contributes to national and international policy level to increase the foreign direct investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]