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What is the future of American capitalism in this century? To answer this question we ask--and attempt to answer--a series of other questions. How has American capitalism changed during the past fifty years? Do the greatest economists say anything that sheds any light on the future of contemporary capitalism? And, what will the future of American capitalism be if any of the following systems is dominant during the rest of the century: market capitalism; regulated capitalism; planned capitalism; and command capitalism. The final conclusion here suggests that both democracy and bureaucratic capitalism will survive this century in the United States--but will do so in few other places in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967-2012. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries' financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. We find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, but only moderate in size. More important, we find that the average decline is sensitive to the specification and sample, and that the aftermath of crises is highly variable across major episodes. A simple forecasting exercise suggests that one important driver of the variation is the severity and persistence of financial distress itself. At the same time, we find little evidence of nonlinearities in the relationship between financial distress and the aftermaths of crises. (JEL E32, E44, G01, N10, N20) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes how a country's degree of economic development affects the impact of banking crises on international trade. To this end, we estimate a gravity model of trade using a sample of 139 countries over the period 1975-2012. Our results show that middle income countries are generally the most negatively affected. In contrast, financial turmoil appears to have less impact on bilateral trade flows among high income countries and, more specially, among low income nations. The level of financial development, contract enforcement, as well as the extent of the use of banking credit within international trade all help to explain our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developed countries face the risk of a sustained lack of aggregate demand, that is, secular stagnation. Demand‐oriented growth models emphasising the balance‐of‐payments constraint raise concerns about attendant adverse growth impacts on developing countries from reduced export growth. These concerns are well‐founded, albeit less serious than the simplest versions of these models would imply. Relaxing their assumptions and emphasising cumulative causation forces from domestic‐demand growth and relative price effects indicates how developing countries can combine export and domestic‐demand based strategies and how changed policies can maintain rapid growth while reducing the income elasticity of import demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international economic and financial-monetary crisis, as we know, began in developed economies. Just over eight years after the official announcement of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (On September 15, 2008, Lehman announced its bankruptcy and AIG shares collapsed on international stock exchanges), the overall situation has seen a significant improvement, the macroeconomic damage created by the crisis has been largely focused, but not in a homogeneous manner along the economies and regions. The present paper tries to fit the current situation and perspective of developed economies (such as the US, the eurozone, Canada, Japan, the UK and others) in a general picture to capture the most relevant indicators, in perspective and in the unfavorable state of the world economy. Thus, according to the data presented by the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations experts, it seems that the forecasts for the current and the forthcoming year are not encouraging, and even have seen unfavorable revisions, both on savings categories and globally, of some indicators such as gross domestic product, economic growth, demand and supply of goods and services, exports and imports, exchange rate, etc. All these aspects will be presented below. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research in political psychology suggests that people who are angry at political conditions tend towards greater political participation and to disregard economic consequences of their choices. These characteristics can be found in voting outcomes associated with the wave of popular discontent sweeping North America and Europe. If this discontent is indeed related to inequality, as many presume, political risks in advanced economies could escalate significantly in the years ahead. Banks can address these risks by augmenting the political expertise of country risk teams, addressing political risks operationally and responding to rising risk as citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes why the global financial crisis in 2008 severely affected Asia's trade. Asia has been suffering from the falls in export demand from developed countries. However the abrupt trade declines in Asia are not fully explained by reactions to this as in previous experiences. The question is why the financial crisis in 2008 brought about the abrupt and deep collapse in world trade, while other world-wide recessions had more moderate effects on world trade. This paper shows that the dynamic relationship between trade and trade finance is one important factor in explaining this question. This paper also applies the Granger (causality) test to uncover different relationships in the developed and developing economies and show different results for different countries in Asia. We employ a Markov-Switching FAVAR (Factor Augmented VAR) to show that global liquidity shocks are important factors in explaining the huge and abrupt trade drops in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even before the financial crisis, many developed economies were facing growing inequality and struggling to maintain employment and earnings. This paper addresses two key questions. What has happened to inequality? Where will tax and welfare reforms have most impact? The UK is used as a running example. The analysis suggests that the pattern of sluggish real wages at the bottom looks set to continue, and longer-term earnings growth will come mainly from high-skilled occupations. Growing earnings inequality will bring increasing pressure on the tax and welfare system. A blueprint for a coherent tax policy reform is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT As population demographics change and economic crises spread and deepen, welfare reform has become an urgent problem in many developed countries. As elsewhere in East Asia, the state in Singapore has in recent years stepped up its efforts to deal with issues of healthcare, education, support for care, retirement and even unemployment. Much of this has been in response to demographic shifts, economic trends and, importantly, political pressures. This article evaluates the possibilities and limits of recent reforms. It looks at some promising aspects of reform, such as increases in spending in certain areas, before examining the limitations of the reforms. These include the fact that most resources have been directed toward supporting businesses, while increases in direct spending on citizens have been limited and conditional rather than universal; furthermore, little or no attention has been paid to the issue of women's underemployment. These features suggest constraints within the logic and principles of welfare, which continue to define citizens as having limited rights and entitlements, and citizenship as entailing regular employment and heavy obligations toward the family. The analysis of reforms sheds light on how the appearance of expansion can mask continuing limitations. The case of Singapore illustrates the importance of looking not just at expenditure but also at the principles and logics in which welfare reforms are embedded, in a variety of national contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of the article The aim of the paper is to analyze the global economic imbalances and factors that contributed to their deterioration in developed and emerging countries, primarily in the United States and China. The article assesses the main inevitable factors of the global economic imbalances that have driven the recent evolution of current account balances. In addition, the paper describes the theoretical framework of global imbalances and the relevant fundamental theories for better understanding in theoretical aspect of international economics and finance. Furthermore, provides overview of the fundamental causes and drivers of global imbalances, namely current account. Methodology/methods In relation to the subject and purpose of this paper have been used the logical methods of examination which mainly include analysis, correlation and regression analysis, abstraction, synthesis, induction and deduction, the methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics, comparative and empirical methods and the selected forecasting methods (causal prognosis methods). Scientific aim The global imbalances are considered as the most disputable and well known of the global current economic problem, which possibly explain the causes of the global financial crisis. The global financial imbalances were quite massive even before the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. Therefore, the main scientific goal of this paper to analyse what is behind the current account imbalances in both countries, e.i. the USA and China. Findings The persistent current account imbalances reflected the imbalances in the world investment and savings ratios. Whereas the U.S. national savings rate kept falling, the Chinese savings rate rose. Current account imbalances will keep on growing due to a problem of insufficient global saving. Conclusions (limits, implications etc)The size of global imbalances has become narrow compared to the prior crisis's level, but it did not vanish due to the implementation of global rebalancing process. Putting the current account imbalance to cooperation of all participating countries is strongly necessary. The policy response will need to involve many more countries, even G20 process, and coordinating this response will require considerable efforts of every party members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about 8 years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6.5 years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the United States (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Post-war business cycles are not the relevant comparator for the recent crises in advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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After the Great Depression of the 1930s, a key role in outweighing the biggest financial and economic crisis has played the implementation of unconventional monetary policy measures, being used as a policy of ultra-cheap money. The need of their implementation in the developed countries is a proof that the standard measures could not provide a way out of the recession into which they have fallen, and there has been brought into question the functioning of the existing system and relations, especially the functioning of national currencies in the role of world money. It is a fact that the standard measures, through the policy of cheap money, have temporarily showed themselves as a proper vehicle for leading a relaxed monetary and fiscal policy in the developed economies, but in the end they have resulted in financial and debt crisis. However, it is a problem that the way out of recession was looked for within the implementation of unconventional monetary policy measures, by which, in fact, there has been increased the level of its relaxation, and thus the danger of future crises too. It is known that the thing which led to crisis cannot help outweigh it. By implementing unconventional measures within the existing International Monetary System, the crisis can only be carried in other countries and it is not solved permanently. For that reason, it is necessary to be created a global currency as a result of which, the national systems will turn themselves back to the implementation of conventional measures, with no possibilities for carrying the national economic problems into other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic crisis in Euro- Atlantic economy came in it's fifth year although governments of developed countries have taken all measures that they were using more or less successfully in last 60 years. And while governments keep looking for more drastically measures to end the crisis, we believe that the time has come for analyzing this situation from another angle. That angle is integral historical analyses of actual roots of this crisis instead of shallow partial analysis that take place these days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the linkages between the global business cycle and national cycles. We first analyse the evolution of the global business cycle and present its main properties during global recessions and recoveries. We then consider how the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle varies over different phases of the global cycle and depends on country-specific features. Our findings collectively portray an intricate liaison between the global business cycle and national cycles. National business cycles are tightly linked to the global cycle, but the sensitivity of national cycles to the global cycle is much higher during global recessions than expansions. There are significant differences across countries in how they respond to the global cycle as advanced economies appear to be more sensitive to global recessions than are developing economies. Moreover, countries tend to be more sensitive to the global cycle, the more integrated they are to the global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the emergence of intractable economic stagnation in most developed countries, spectacular failures in financial markets and the empirical refutation of hypotheses central to economic policy for the last three decades, the economics profession remains largely complacent. Some reasons for this complacency are discussed, along with some suggestions for future directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic crisis triggered in 2007 in the U.S. had reverberations around the world, with serious consequences in the field of economic exchanges and financial, which required a rethinking of economic policy at the global level. The economies of the developed countries and emerging markets were affected, the crisis deepening the gap between heavily industrialized nations and developing states as well as the least developed states, in particular African states. In this context the world expected a minimal state involvement in the financial sector through the provision of funds to be used to meet the need of liquidity of banks. A natural consequence is the increasing indebtedness of these countries with naturally impact on the trade deficits. The financial crisis has boosted the role of governments in national economies, making at the same time necessary the cooperation at international level in order to adopt concerted measures for economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing international mobility is more important to depict global migration patterns and its characteristics, not only in receiving countries, but also in origin ones. With the growth and diversification of migration flows to developed countries in the past 15 years, migration of labour force occupy now a prime place on the political agenda of many governments. Due to the current economic crisis, associated with deterioration in the employment situation in most countries, it seems very important to examine the factors that determine migration, relative importance of migration in different regions of the world, and understand more clearly its mechanisms. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the main trends of international migration, which plays a significant role in our days, in helping to fill the shortfall in labor supply in many countries and of the fact that fewer young people are entering the labor markets. In addition, we try to answer by identifying the shortterm effects of economic crisis on labor migration, what are the recent changes, quantitatively and qualitatively in migration of labor force and how the immigrants could be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With its origins in the collapse of the US sub-prime market, the global financial crisis might more accurately be termed a global housing crisis. Over the last decade, most developed countries experienced house price inflation; however few matched the UK, whose boom started earlier and was more sustained. A taxpayer-led recovery stopped a UK price correction in its tracks; however it will be argued that these measures only delayed momentum towards a reduced housing market under the Con-Lib Dem coalition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the discussions on the growing indebtedness of developed countries and the threat of insolvency that some countries of the euro area are currently facing, a number of related factors seem to be omitted, although they do deserve their share of attention as well. One of these related factors is the link between the indebtedness of national governments and that of families in their respective countries which calls for further examination. However, the most pressing of the topics in this respect, one that may send shivers down our spines, is this simple question: "As the developed countries have already seen a large number of defaults of businesses and banks, with us now therefore perceiving this phenomenon as a standard part of the economy undergoing recession or stagnation while we also get used to countries on the brink of bankruptcy being bought out by extensive aid provided by other countries under non-market conditions, are we to expect future financial collapses to affect families or entire social strata and their budgets on a mass scale?" As clear evidence exists that the key cause of defaults is the untamed debts, which get out of the control of businesses or governments, we should get alarmed by the fact that private loans, as opposed to business or government loans, have become the most dynamically growing debt type in developed countries over the recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development economics was the study of how to create the plumbing that would allow developing economies to become developed. The financial crisis leads us to question whether industrialized countries have the plumbing problem solved and thus leads us to question whether we need a development economics that is separate from macroeconomics. Indeed, it even leads us to question whether development economics should take as its goal the creation of the institutional plumbing that industrialized countries currently have. The consequence will be a blending of concerns that have been central in developing economies with the standard macro models. The blending can be seen as either the death of development economics or the hegemony of development economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September 2007, a serious financial crisis became evident in the developed countries, due to serious mistakes in economic policy. Even against their own ideology, governments have not spared measures to reduce its effects, have failed to contain it, and it advances towards a global recession of uncertain depth and duration. The crisis has already changed the theoretical and practical paradigms that have dominated the academic and policy worlds in the last three decades. It will also cause serious effects in the fragile economic, social and political equilibriums of the developing countries, especially in Latin America because of its dependence on raw materials production, remittances and external capitals flows that are diminishing rapidly. The crisis will lead to a new state-market relation and to new paradigms with large Keynesian influence, and from this, will grow a new opportunity for Latin America, if it consolidates a new way of managing its economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Se presenta un artículo que estudia el comportamiento entre flujos de capital, precios de activos y crédito, a través de múltiples episodios ocurridos durante los años setenta, ochenta y noventa, tanto en economías desarrolladas como en desarrollo, mostrando cuáles son los aspectos más críticos desde el punto de vista de los encargados de política. El objetivo del trabajo es evaluar la importancia de los flujos de capital en situaciones de distress financiero como las que ocurrieron en el sudeste asiático en los noventa.

Examines the status of the welfare states in industrialized countries. Relation of the welfare state and world economic crisis; Contribution of welfare states to society; Discussion on the need for security in affluent societies.

The article compares and contrasts the economic situations of developed countries and developing countries, exploring the reasons for the economic stagnation facing developed countries and the economic growth expected in developing countries. The article describes the long term fiscal crises facing developed countries, such as the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, the institution of austerity measures to address the financial problems in entitlement programs, and the decline in the real estate markets. It also describes the long term economic potential in developing countries, such as the industrialization of China, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India, and economic growth in Latin America.