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Highlights • Simulations indicate that climate change will impact future tree species distributions. • Results are highly sensitive to parameters controlling tree persistence under warmer climate conditions. • Results are less sensitive to disturbance regimes (fire and harvesting) and tree dispersal limitations. Abstract From a forest management stand point, it is crucial to know which ecological processes are most likely to drive changes in tree species distributions and abundance under warming climate conditions. In this study, we simulated forest dynamics in a 703,580 km2 territory that straddles the boreal and temperate broadleaved forest biomes in the province of Québec (Canada), under a RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The objective was to evaluate how future forest composition is sensitive to variation in four potential drivers: fire regimes, harvesting regimes, the capacity of tree species to persist under warmer climate conditions, and species capabilities for long-distance colonization. The results indicate that forest composition in 2100 is most sensitive to variation in the parameters controlling species persistence when conditions become warmer or dryer than the conditions found in their current range. Concretely, this points to avenues of research to improve the accuracy of our predictions regarding the impacts of climate change on forest composition. For instance, we should further investigate the underlying ecological (competition) or physiological (drought stresses) processes that influence tree species persistence at the receding edge of their current distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]